Telecom and Data Center Services

youthfulgleekingRéseaux et Communications

17 févr. 2014 (il y a 3 années et 5 mois)

148 vue(s)

United States | Equity Research

Telecom and Data Center Services

Data Centers

Towers

RBOCs & Wireless


September 18, 2013

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Jonathan
Schildkraut

Managing Director

(212) 497 0864

schildkraut@evercore.com

Marc
Albanese, CFA

Vice President

(212) 497 0821

marc.albanese@evercore.com

Robert Gutman

Snr. Associate

(212) 497 0877

robert.gutman@evercore.com

1

2014 Outlook: Telecom Advertising


Overall,
we
expect a combination of improving macro trends and increasing
competition in wireless to drive an increase in advertising vs.
2013


U.S. Telco service revenue expected to grow 1.5% in 2014 to $345B










Three Sectors:


Wireless: $212B, 61% of 2014 estimate U.S. Telco spending


Residential:
$76B
,
22%
of
2014
estimate U.S. Telco spending


Enterprise: $57B
,
17%
of
2014
estimate U.S. Telco spending





U.S. Telco Service Revenue Estimate, 2014 (IDC)

Wireless
Residential
Enterprise
2

Wireless in 2014


Increasingly Competitive Environment Driven
by:


Recapitalized
Sprint


Re
-
energized
T
-
Mobile USA



Slowing
Subscriber Growth, Increasing Smartphone
Penetration, Handset
Parity



Emphasis
on New Revenue Opportunities
-

Tablets,
Digital Life, the Wireless Internet of
Things

3

Wireless in 2014:
Increasingly Competitive
Environment


VZ and T continue aggressive competition with
emphasis on
high
-
end of the market



S
is recapitalized following a significant investment from
SoftBank


Emphasis over last 18 months has been on "
iDEN

recapture" as the company transitioned
customers off of its old network and onto its new CDMA/LTE network.
iDEN

shuttered
on June 30, 2013
-

all subscriber growth going forward will be external. Emphasis on
advertising increases
dramatically


S to launch hybrid FD/TD LTE Network in 2014. Once network reaches critical mass
(expected 2Q14), expect significant increase in marketing



TMUS completed band harmonization in mid
-
2013,
relaunched

brand "
uncarrier
"
and
began to offer the
iPhone



T faces competition at the high
-
end from VZ and at the low
-
end from
TMUS



Dual messages to market
-

network quality and value pricing



Slowing
subscriber
growth






Increasing smartphone penetration






4

Wireless in 2014: Other Competitive Issues

Annual Subscription Growth

Smartphone Penetration

2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012













Handset
parity
-

with TMUS beginning to offer the iPhone, carriers
have less differentiation on handset and must emphasize other
points of differentiation, which may be less
tangible


Network
quality is hard to measure, and pricing plans are difficult to
compare


10.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
18.0%
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
27.5%
30.0%
34.5%
40.0%
43.0%
47.8%
50.4%
54.9%
56.0%
58.5%
61.0%
62.0%
90.0%
87.0%
86.0%
85.0%
84.0%
82.0%
79.0%
77.0%
75.0%
72.5%
70.0%
65.5%
60.0%
57.0%
52.2%
49.6%
45.1%
44.0%
41.5%
39.0%
38.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Q2:08
Q3:08
Q4:08
Q1:09
Q2:09
Q3:09
Q4:09
Q1:10
Q2:10
Q3:10
Q4:10
Q1:11
Q2:11
Q3:11
Q4:11
Q1:12
Q2:12
Q3:12
Q4:12
Q1:13
Q2:13
Smartphones
Traditional Phones
VZ iPhone

S iPhone

TMUS iPhone

5

Wireless in 2014:
Emphasis on New Revenue Opportunities


Tablets


T: Of the 847K net adds in 1H13, 763K were tablets (+90%)


VZ: Tablets made up +44% of postpaid net adds in 1Q
(300K out of 677K)


Shift to shared data plans
(18% of postpaid accounts at
T and
36%
at
VZ
) help to nudge subscribers into connecting tablets
to wireless data plans



Digital Life, Cars, The Internet of
Things



6

Residential in 2014


Residential remains fiercely competitive, but more local in
nature





OTT offerings pushes companies to increasingly promote
brands
out
-
of
-
region




Tied
to new home formation
-

which looks
to improve with the macro
environment


7

Enterprise in 2014


Enterprise
continues to lag as economic weakness has
hurt spending and elongated sales
cycles





Wireline operations highly levered to improvements in
enterprise
spending





Expect
meaningful increases in spending
should macro progress
continue

8

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