Uintah Basin WRF Testing

sadhospitalMécanique

22 févr. 2014 (il y a 3 années et 3 mois)

43 vue(s)

Uintah Basin WRF Testing

Erik
Neemann

20 Sep 2013

Overview


-
Description of WRF Setup & Microphysics edits

-
Explanation of WRF edits

-
Reasoning for Microphysics edits

-
General Results

-
Examples of simulation differences

-
Errors, Time Series plots, & Vertical profiles

-
Conclusions




Summary of
Recent WRF Testing
& Modifications

-
Idealized snow cover in Uintah Basin and mountains

-
Initialized
colder skin temperature in the Uintah Basin

-
Updated
land use data to NLCD
2006

-
Modified VEGPARM.TBL

-
Snow albedo changes

-
Edited relative humidity in NAM input files

-
Microphysics modifications (Thompson)

-
Changes to homogeneous freezing temperature

-
Changes to
ice nucleation
temperature

-
Turning
off cloud ice sedimentation

-
Turning
off cloud ice
autoconversion

to snow


17 cm

22 to 28 cm

(overestimation inside
Uintah Basin)

Idealized snow cover in Uintah Basin and mountains

-
Elevation
-
dependent snow cover above 2380 m (17 cm to 1 m above 2900 m)

-
Uniform snow in basin (17 cm depth, 21.25 kg/m
3

SWE, 8:1 ratio)

00Z 1 Feb 2013

Domain 3
Modified Snow
Cover

00Z 1 Feb 2013

NAM Analysis Snow Cover

Initialized colder skin temperature in Uintah Basin

-
Initialized skin temperature to 262 K in the basin (below 2380 m)

00Z 1 Feb 2013

Modified Skin
Temperaure

00Z 1 Feb 2013

NAM Analysis Skin Temperature

262 K

267 to 268 K

Updated Land Use data

-
Updated land use data to NLCD 2006 (1 arc
-
second)

-
Uintah Basin primary “
shrubland
” and “cropland/grassland mosaic”

-
“Barren or sparsely vegetated”, “grassland”, and “irrigated cropland &
pasture” significantly decreased



262 K

267 to 268 K

New NLCD 2006 data

Old USGS Land Use data

More urban categories

Changes in Uintah Basin

Modified VEGPARM.TBL

-
Modified VEGPARM.TBL “SNUP” to 0.02 for vegetation categories 5 & 8
(cropland/grassland mosaic &
shrubland
)

-
Allows 2 cm of SWE (20 kg/m
3
) to “cover up” vegetation with snow

-
Enables albedo to attain “max snow albedo”, instead of combination of snow
albedo and vegetation albedo

Changed from .04 to .02

Changed from .03 to .02

0.82

0.76

0.72

0.76

Snow Albedo changes

-
Combination of VEGPARM.TBL and snow albedo edits achieved desire albedos

-
Set snow albedo to 0.82 within the basin (below 2380 m)

-
Set snow albedo to 0.71 outside the basin within domain 2

New snow albedo edits

(0.82 in Basin, 0.71 outer box)

Original snow albedo edits

(0.71 everywhere)

*Note: color scale are different

Edited RH in NAM input files

-
Crudely subtracted 5, 20, or 40% from RH in NAM input files

-
Reduced RH by fraction if already very low to prevent negative values

00Z 1 Feb 2013

Edited NAM RH reduced 20 %

00Z 1 Feb 2013

Original NAM RH

Edited RH in NAM input files
-

Integrated clouds hydrometeors

-
Reduced RH decreased clouds earlier in simulation (1
-
2 days)

-
All simulations converged on very similar cloudy solution after first couple days

Thompson 1.33km

Thompson 4km RH
-
5%

Thompson 4km RH
-
20%

15Z 1 Feb 2013

15Z 5 Feb 2013

Reasoning for Microphysics Modifications

-
Several modification were made to Thompson microphysics schemes:

-
Changes to homogeneous freezing temperature (HGFR) from 235 to 271 K

-
Desired effect of changing liquid clouds to ice clouds

-
Changes to ice nucleation temperature from
-
12 to range of
-
3 to
-
15 C

-
Desired same effect as changing homogeneous freezing temperature,
but more physically realistic

-
Turning off cloud ice sedimentation

-
Effort to prevent cloud ice from “falling out” of cloud

-
Turning off cloud ice
autoconversion

to snow

-
Effort to maintain cloud ice by preventing it’s conversion into snow
category and precipitating out of cloud


-
Modifications were conducted in various combinations to determine impact
on model simulations


-
In final tests, modifications were then only allowed in lowest 15 model levels
(~500 m), while everything above was unchanged

-
Effort to create more realistic simulation by only changing low levels



General Results of Microphysics Modifications

-
Combination of edits seemed to converge on 3 solutions:


1
-

“clear sky” solution with very little cloud ice and negligible LW radiation

-
Simulations where ice clouds were created and:

-
Ice
autoconversion

to snow was ON

-
Autoconversion

OFF, but sedimentation of cloud ice ON


2
-

“thick ice cloud” solution with moderate LW radiation

-
Simulations where ice clouds were created and:

-
Both
autoconversion

and sedimentation were OFF


3
-

“thick liquid cloud” solution with strong LW radiation when:

-
No microphysics edits

-
Simulations where ice clouds were created via ice nucleation:

-
Either sedimentation or
autoconversion

was ON



Integrated Clouds

TIAU0

09Z 3 Feb 2013

TIAU0

TS20IAU0

Cloud Ice bottom 10 levels

TS20IAU0

Microphysics Modifications
-

Cloud Ice sedimentation

Microphysics Modifications
-

Sedimentation and
Autoconversion

TFSCA

WSM3A

TIAU0

TIAU20

TIAU5

TSIAU0

Cloud ice bottom 10 levels
-

06Z 4 Feb 2013

Effect of Sedimentation on 2m
Temps, Clouds, LW Radiation

2m Temps

Integrated Clouds

06Z 4 Feb 2013

LW Radiation at
sfc

2m Temps

Integrated Clouds

LW Radiation at
sfc

TIN3IAU0
-

Ice sedimentation OFF


TSIN3IAU0
-

Ice sedimentation ON


Sedimentation
-

Average
cloud ice & cloud water bottom 10 levels

TIN3IAU0

-

Ice sedimentation OFF

Cloud Ice

06Z 4 Feb 2013

TSIN3IAU0

-

Ice sedimentation ON

Cloud Water

Cloud Ice

Cloud Water

Uintah Basin CAP Simulation 1
-
6 Feb 2013

Distribution of cloud ice with and without
sedimentation

QSNOW 6.6x10
-
3

QICE 5.6x10
-
4

TIN3IAU0

TSIN3IAU0

-
Allowing cloud ice sedimentation in low levels resulted in a
liquid
-
phase
dominated
cloud

-
Both cases had essentially identical results above 2
-
3 km


QCLOUD 0.045 g/kg

QICE 0.11 g/kg

Mean Errors:

Original Thomp 4km = 3.5576 C

WSM3 0.82 alb 4km = 1.9254 C

Thomp RH
-
40%, 0.82 alb = 2.9908 C

Thomp 300 CCN 0.82 alb = 1.3055 C

Thomp ice, fall speed zero = 3.0842 C

Thomp ice, FS=0, 300 CCN, alb =
-
0.75 C

Uintah Basin CAP Simulation 1
-
6 Feb 2013

“thick liquid cloud”

“thick ice cloud”

“clear sky”

Mean Abs Errors:

Original Thomp 4km = 3.9772 C

WSM3 0.82 alb 4km = 2.5456 C

Thomp RH
-
40%, 0.82 alb = 2.6232 C

Thomp 300 CCN 0.82 alb = 3.1315 C

Thomp ice, fall speed zero = 3.4003 C

Thomp ice, FS=0, 300 CCN, alb = 3.9772 C


Uintah Basin CAP Simulation 1
-
6 Feb 2013

RMSE:

Original Thomp 4km = 4.7447 C

WSM3 0.82 alb 4km = 3.1065 C

Thomp RH
-
40%, 0.82 alb = 3.2344 C

Thomp 300 CCN 0.82 alb = 3.8061 C

Thomp ice, fall speed zero = 3.9650 C

Thomp ice, FS=0, 300 CCN, alb = 2.5162 C


Uintah Basin CAP Simulation 1
-
6 Feb 2013

Run
Mean Error (deg C)
Mean Abs Error (deg C)
RMSE (deg C)
TSIAU0
4km Thomp, sed, 100 CCN, IAU0, 0.82 alb
-0.7028
1.9853
2.4882
0.667578
TIAU5
4km Thomp, FS0, 100 CCN, IAU 5%
-0.7682
1.9971
2.5152
0.610222
TFS1000A
4km Thomp, FS0, 1000 CCN, 0.82 alb
-0.7498
1.9960
2.5158
0.773771
TFSCA
4km Thomp, FS0, 300 CCN, 0.82 alb
-0.7500
1.9946
2.5162
0.774392
TIAU20
4km Thomp, FS0, 100 CCN, IAU 20%
-0.7532
1.9999
2.5177
0.771226
TIAU0
4km Thomp, FS0, 100 CCN, IAU0, 0.82 alb
0.3050
2.1935
2.7514
0.486928
TS20IAU0
4km Thomp, FS abv 20, IAU0, 0.82 alb
-0.0948
2.2512
2.8049
0.78427
TIN3IAU0
4km Thomp IN-3, FS0, IAU0 (bot 15)
0.0125
2.3295
2.8822
0.840412
WSM3A
4km WSM3 Albedo 0.82
1.9254
2.5456
3.1065
0.427977
TRH40A
4km Thomp RH-40% & 0.82 alb
0.3347
2.6232
3.2344
0.0546734
WSM3_d02
4km WSM3
2.5078
2.9248
3.5135
0.521877
WSM3_d03
1.3km WSM3
2.8029
3.0661
3.6241
0.869439
TIN3
4km Thomp IN-3, FS0 (bot 15)
1.1475
3.0662
3.7261
0.0958929
TSIN3
4km Thomp IN-3, sed all levs
1.1761
3.0716
3.7338
0.0802748
TSIN3IAU0
4km Thomp IN-3, sed all levs, IAU0 (bot 15)
1.1987
3.0800
3.7457
0.0719872
T100A
4km Thomp, 100 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.2367
3.0875
3.7550
0.0631214
TAC
4km Thomp, 300 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.3055
3.1315
3.8061
0.0687979
T1000A
4km Thomp, 1000 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.3415
3.1395
3.8213
0.0719154
TFS0
4km T271 Fall Speed 0
3.0842
3.4003
3.9650
0.39035
T271
4km Thompson 271
3.0828
3.3967
3.9697
0.396135
TRH40
4km Thomp RH-40%
2.9908
3.5206
4.2393
0.0139123
TRH20
4km Thomp RH-20%
3.2254
3.7089
4.4401
0.236866
Morr
4km Morrison
3.4841
3.8699
4.5975
0
v1_d03
1.3km Thompson
3.3858
3.8293
4.6104
0.130138
v1_d02
4km Thompson
3.5576
3.9772
4.7447
0.030682
TNOD
4km Thomp No Diffusion
3.4127
4.0453
4.8911
0.147985
Snow (mm) at
Ouray (80,89)
2m Temperature Errors on WRF runs
2m Temperature Errors for all runs and accumulated snow at Ouray

Run
Mean Error (deg C)
Mean Abs Error (deg C)
4km Thomp FS0, 300 CCN, 0.82 alb
-0.75
2.1595
0.774392
4km Thomp FS0, 1000 CCN, 0.82 alb -0.7498 2.1626 0.773771
4km WSM3 Albedo 0.82
1.9254
2.3177
0.427977
4km Thomp RH-40% & 0.82 alb
0.3347
2.5226
0.0546734
4km WSM3
2.5078
2.5948
0.521877
1.3km WSM3
2.8029
2.8408
0.869439
4km Thomp, 100 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.2367
2.9096
0.0631214
4km Thomp, 1000 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.3415
2.9561
0.0719154
4km Thomp, 300 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.3055
2.9572
0.0687979
4km Thompson 271
3.0828
3.031
0.396135
4km T271 Fall Speed 0
3.0842
3.0337
0.39035
4km Thomp RH-40%
2.9908
3.0928
0.0139123
4km Thomp RH-20%
3.2254
3.2893
0.236866
4km Morrison
3.4841
3.4915
0
1.3km Thompson
3.3858
3.5548
0.130138
4km Thompson
3.5576
3.5963
0.030682
4km Thomp No Diffusion
3.4127
3.7604
0.147985
2m Temperature Errors on WRF runs
Snow (mm) at
Ouray (80,89)
Run
Mean Error (deg C)
Mean Abs Error (deg C)
4km Thomp FS0, 300 CCN, 0.82 alb
-0.75
2.1595
0.774392
4km Thomp FS0, 1000 CCN, 0.82 alb
-0.7498
2.1626
0.773771
4km WSM3 Albedo 0.82
1.9254
2.3177
0.427977
4km Thomp RH-40% & 0.82 alb
0.3347
2.5226
0.0546734
4km WSM3
2.5078
2.5948
0.521877
1.3km WSM3
2.8029
2.8408
0.869439
4km Thomp, 100 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.2367
2.9096
0.0631214
4km Thomp, 1000 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.3415
2.9561
0.0719154
4km Thomp, 300 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.3055
2.9572
0.0687979
4km Thompson 271
3.0828
3.031
0.396135
4km T271 Fall Speed 0
3.0842
3.0337
0.39035
4km Thomp RH-40%
2.9908
3.0928
0.0139123
4km Thomp RH-20%
3.2254
3.2893
0.236866
4km Morrison
3.4841
3.4915
0
1.3km Thompson
3.3858
3.5548
0.130138
4km Thompson
3.5576
3.5963
0.030682
4km Thomp No Diffusion
3.4127
3.7604
0.147985
2m Temperature Errors on WRF runs
Snow (mm) at
Ouray (80,89)
Run
Mean Error (deg C)
Mean Abs Error (deg C)
4km Thomp FS0, 300 CCN, 0.82 alb
-0.75
2.1595
0.774392
4km Thomp FS0, 1000 CCN, 0.82 alb
-0.7498
2.1626
0.773771
4km WSM3 Albedo 0.82
1.9254
2.3177
0.427977
4km Thomp RH-40% & 0.82 alb
0.3347
2.5226
0.0546734
4km WSM3
2.5078
2.5948
0.521877
1.3km WSM3
2.8029
2.8408
0.869439
4km Thomp, 100 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.2367
2.9096
0.0631214
4km Thomp, 1000 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.3415
2.9561
0.0719154
4km Thomp, 300 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.3055
2.9572
0.0687979
4km Thompson 271
3.0828
3.031
0.396135
4km T271 Fall Speed 0
3.0842
3.0337
0.39035
4km Thomp RH-40%
2.9908
3.0928
0.0139123
4km Thomp RH-20%
3.2254
3.2893
0.236866
4km Morrison
3.4841
3.4915
0
1.3km Thompson
3.3858
3.5548
0.130138
4km Thompson
3.5576
3.5963
0.030682
4km Thomp No Diffusion
3.4127
3.7604
0.147985
2m Temperature Errors on WRF runs
Snow (mm) at
Ouray (80,89)
Run
Mean Error (deg C)
Mean Abs Error (deg C)
4km Thomp FS0, 300 CCN, 0.82 alb
-0.75
2.1595
0.774392
4km Thomp FS0, 1000 CCN, 0.82 alb
-0.7498
2.1626
0.773771
4km WSM3 Albedo 0.82
1.9254
2.3177
0.427977
4km Thomp RH-40% & 0.82 alb
0.3347
2.5226
0.0546734
4km WSM3
2.5078
2.5948
0.521877
1.3km WSM3
2.8029
2.8408
0.869439
4km Thomp, 100 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.2367
2.9096
0.0631214
4km Thomp, 1000 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.3415
2.9561
0.0719154
4km Thomp, 300 CCN, 0.82 alb 1.3055 2.9572 0.0687979
4km Thompson 271
3.0828
3.031
0.396135
4km T271 Fall Speed 0
3.0842
3.0337
0.39035
4km Thomp RH-40%
2.9908
3.0928
0.0139123
4km Thomp RH-20%
3.2254
3.2893
0.236866
4km Morrison
3.4841
3.4915
0
1.3km Thompson
3.3858
3.5548
0.130138
4km Thompson
3.5576
3.5963
0.030682
4km Thomp No Diffusion
3.4127
3.7604
0.147985
2m Temperature Errors on WRF runs
Snow (mm) at
Ouray (80,89)
Run
Mean Error (deg C)
Mean Abs Error (deg C)
4km Thomp FS0, 300 CCN, 0.82 alb
-0.75
2.1595
0.774392
4km Thomp FS0, 1000 CCN, 0.82 alb
-0.7498
2.1626
0.773771
4km WSM3 Albedo 0.82
1.9254
2.3177
0.427977
4km Thomp RH-40% & 0.82 alb
0.3347
2.5226
0.0546734
4km WSM3
2.5078
2.5948
0.521877
1.3km WSM3
2.8029
2.8408
0.869439
4km Thomp, 100 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.2367
2.9096
0.0631214
4km Thomp, 1000 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.3415
2.9561
0.0719154
4km Thomp, 300 CCN, 0.82 alb
1.3055
2.9572
0.0687979
4km Thompson 271
3.0828
3.031
0.396135
4km T271 Fall Speed 0
3.0842
3.0337
0.39035
4km Thomp RH-40%
2.9908
3.0928
0.0139123
4km Thomp RH-20%
3.2254
3.2893
0.236866
4km Morrison
3.4841
3.4915
0
1.3km Thompson 3.3858 3.5548 0.130138
4km Thompson
3.5576
3.5963
0.030682
4km Thomp No Diffusion
3.4127
3.7604
0.147985
2m Temperature Errors on WRF runs
Snow (mm) at
Ouray (80,89)
Thompson runs with HGFR temp = 271.15

WSM3 runs

Thompson runs with reduced RH in boundary conditions

No tweaks to microphysics (Thompson & Morrison)

Thompson runs with different cloud droplet concentrations

Thompson runs with ice nucleation changes in bottom 15 model levels

Uintah Basin CAP Simulation 1
-
6 Feb 2013

Uintah Basin CAP Simulation 1
-
6 Feb 2013

Uintah Basin CAP Simulation 1
-
6 Feb 2013

Uintah Basin CAP Simulation 1
-
6 Feb 2013

1 Feb 2013

2 Feb 2013

3 Feb 2013

4 Feb 2013

5 Feb 2013

6 Feb 2013

18Z Roosevelt

1 Feb 2013

2 Feb 2013

3 Feb 2013

4 Feb 2013

5 Feb 2013

6 Feb 2013

12Z Horsepool

1 Feb 2013

2 Feb 2013

3 Feb 2013

4 Feb 2013

5 Feb 2013

6 Feb 2013

12Z Ouray

1 Feb 2013

2 Feb 2013

3 Feb 2013

4 Feb 2013

5 Feb 2013

6 Feb 2013

12Z Red Wash

Conclusions

-
Preferred WRF run and edits (TIN12IAU0)

-
Include idealized snow cover, albedo, skin temperature, updated land use,
and edited VEGPARM.TBL

-
Do not edit RH in NAM initialization/boundary condition files

-
Only make microphysics edits in lowest 15 model levels

-
Leave ice nucleation at default temperature of
-
12 C

-
Turn off
autoconversion

and sedimentation in bottom 15 model levels


-
Preferred setup results in:

-
Ice
-
phase clouds in place of original liquid
-
phase cloud

-
Colder
surface temperatures with smaller errors/bias

-
More physically representative
radiative

properties of ice
-
phase cloud

-
Shallower
PBL that more closely matches observed soundings