Dam good sources

pointdepressedMécanique

22 févr. 2014 (il y a 3 années et 3 mois)

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Dam good sources












By Aoun Sahi


Sunday 8
th

,
April, 2012

http://jang.com.pk/thenews/apr2012
-
weekly/nos
-
08
-
04
-
2012/spr.htm#5

With only 2.5
-
4 percent GDP growth, Pakistan would need at least 40,000MW of electricity.
According to the Energy Expert Group of Pakistan Business Council, at present, the country is
getting 43.7 percent of its electricity using gas, 29 percent by burning furnace oil. This brings
thermal production (the most expensive) to 72.7 percent of total electricity generation in country.
Of the remaining 27.3 percent, 15 percent is hydel power w
hile 10.4 percent is coal power.
Continued heavy reliance on furnace oil and gas will see the import bill for meeting our energy
requirements go up


from USD 12 billion in 2007
-
08 to USD 62 billion


based on the crude
oil price of USD 100 per barrel.


Ho
wever, according to the Expert Group, projections made by Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley
and others have indicated that the price of crude oil will be closer to USD 200 per barrel by the
year 2020 which will increase the import bill for Pakistan to USD 124
billion under the ‘business
as usual’ scenario.


Experts believe that Pakistan has a greater potential for producing electricity from its indigenous
cheaper sources like water and coal. “Pakistan has the potential to produce more than 50,000MW
hydel power,
” says Tahir Dhindsa, an energy expert affiliated with Sustainable Development
Policy Institute (SDPI), Islamabad. “Presently, the total installed capacity of hydel power is less
than 6500MW. It is the cheapest form of electricity and costs less than Rs1.5

per unit while the
power generated by burning furnace oil costs around Rs13 per unit and the burning gas costs
Rs5.5 per unit.

Dam good sources












By Aoun Sahi


Sunday 8
th

,
April, 2012

http://jang.com.pk/thenews/apr2012
-
weekly/nos
-
08
-
04
-
2012/spr.htm#5


“Coal is also a very cheap and readily available source of energy in Pakistan,” he adds. “We
need to shift our [energy] require
ments on water and coal from thermal sources. It is only
because of the high rates of furnace oil and the unavailability of gas that Pakistan hardly runs the
total capacity of 8,295MW of Independent Private Power Producers (IPPs).”


Natural resources are d
epleting while the demand continues to rise. “The existing demand for
Natural Gas is 4.5 billion cubic feet per day (BCFD) and, if no change is brought in the policies,
will go up to 10 BCFD by the year 2020,” says Dhindsa.


“The supply, on the other hand,

is expected to drop down to 2.17 BCFD from the current 3.9
during the same time period.”


He suggests that Pakistan should start working on importing gas from Iran and Central Asian
states as soon as possible if it means to meet energy demands.


Integrate
d Energy Plan 2009
-
2022, completed by the ministry of finance, strongly calls for
moving towards indigenous power sources. According to this plan, Pakistan needs to induct
18,000MW hydel power at any cost to the national grid by 2022. Additionally, it need
s to induct
a minimum of 10,000MW power generation on local coal, during the same period of time, to half
the import bill of hydrocarbons in the power sector. The Medium Term Development Framework
(MTDF) 2005
-
10 and Vision 2030 also call for similar action
s.


Things may look perfect in the book as far as capacity and policies to overcome power crisis are
concerned. In Pakistan’s latest power policy (2002), it is clearly mentioned that the country
would start facing electricity shortage by 2005. The same is
described in so many papers and
reports of planning commissions and Wapda but nothing has been done to overcome the crisis.


“Hydro Potential of Pakistan”, a document produced by Wapda in 2011, mentions Pakistan
having a hydropower potential of over 100,00
0MW with identified sites of 59,000MW.
According to the same document, present estimates suggest that the 185 billion tonnes of coal
which are equivalent to around 617 billion barrels of crude oil, if estimated at USD50 per barrel,
is an asset worth USD30
trillion. These coal reserves are enough to provide over 20,000MW of
electricity for a period of 40 years.


Another document by the same ministry says that these coal reserves would be sufficient for
generating 100,000MW of electricity for 30 years as
energy contents of these resources are more
than those of Saudi Arabia and Iran’s oil resources put together.


Dam good sources












By Aoun Sahi


Sunday 8
th

,
April, 2012

http://jang.com.pk/thenews/apr2012
-
weekly/nos
-
08
-
04
-
2012/spr.htm#5

An official of Energy section of Planning Commission of Pakistan says that coal is highly
underutilized: “The average share of coal in world ener
gy mix is 40 percent whereas in our
country it is around 7 percent (local coal). We are hoping to increase its share in our national
energy mix by at least 20 percent by 2030.”


Ironically, no private local or foreign firm has showed interest in developing

an integrated local
coal based project. “I hope in the next few years, many coal based power generation projects will
start at least in Sindh,” he says. “Dr Samar Mand Mubarak has already started a pilot project of
100MW electricity generation from Thar C
oal. The cost per unit of electricity produced from
Thar coal has been calculated at Rs3.59. In the next phase, 500
-
1,000MW power plants will be
installed to generate power through coal gasification. We should be able to install our first
1,000MW power pla
nt in Thar over the next three years.


“Coal is the answer to our future energy needs. At present, India is producing 51 percent of its
electricity from coal while China is producing 67 percent. Pakistan can take a cue from its
neighbours in this regard.”


The situation is more or less the same in the hydropower sector. Pakistan, though it hopes to
induct at least 18,000MW hydel power in the next 10 years, is rapidly depleting its water storage
capacity due to sedimentation. “Currently, we can only store up

to 13 percent of the annual flow
of our rivers,” the official says. “The storage is fast depleting due to sedimentation which has not
only reduced the power generation capacity of our dams but also proved detrimental to the
country’s agriculture. For exam
ple, over the last 30 years, the storage capacity of Tarbela has
been reduced by 27 percent due to silting. The studies under way include Diamer Basha
(4,500MW), Bunji (7,100MW) and Kohala (1,100MW) amongst others. Although Hydel power
is the cheapest, it
is the most controversial because the construction of dams involves a lot of
investment and also displacement of natives. Last week, the residents of Swat filed a petition
against the Daral Khawr Hydropower Project which is a run
-
of
-
the
-
river dam with an e
stimated
capacity of 36MW and can easily fulfil the electricity demands of the whole district.


“The situation is not too good with big projects such as Bhasha
-
Diamir, Neelam
-
Jhelum and
Bunji dams and none of them are likely to be completed in the given ti
me frame,” he says.


Small hydro projects are also very important as Pakistan has a great potential in this sector. At
present, some 300 small and mini hydropower plants, installed by the private and public sector in
the northern hilly areas, are supplying

electricity to these areas.


So far, we have failed to make full use of the potential in small dams as well. In June 2011,
President Asif Zardari inaugurated a project for the construction of 12 small dams in different
parts of the country by 2013. Work o
n not a single dam has commenced as of now. “It is true that
Dam good sources












By Aoun Sahi


Sunday 8
th

,
April, 2012

http://jang.com.pk/thenews/apr2012
-
weekly/nos
-
08
-
04
-
2012/spr.htm#5

we have huge electricity generation capacity in hydro and coal sectors but no big project has
been completed in the last three decades,” says Syed Tanzim Naqvi, ex
-
member Power, Wapda.


“Electric
ity generation projects, both hydel and coal, take many years to complete, so the
government instead of waiting for recommendations from national and international energy
experts should focus on setting up new projects. Otherwise we will hit the worst elec
tricity crisis
five years down the line.”