Technology trajectories in ICT

yardbellAI and Robotics

Nov 14, 2013 (3 years and 11 months ago)

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Key Technology Trajectories

Roberto Saracco

roberto.saracco@tilab.com

Prague, October 22
nd
, 2004

Key Technology Trajectories

Roberto Saracco

roberto.saracco@tilab.com



Approach



Trajectories



Disruptions

The Web Site

The FOUR LAYERS

Looking into Technologies



How would a Tech. evolve?



How is it related to the whole?



Looking into Technologies

#c

#n

#c

#n

reale

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(
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reale
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Year 2004

3,090

2,899

0,164

0,051

Year 2010

3,000

2,774

0,266

0,055

Year 2020

2,781

2,689

0,270

0,058

Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010
0
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10
12
14
16
18
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15
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k
n(k)
Looking into Technologies

Distribution of the degree of aggregation by 2010
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
k
n(k)
#c

#n

#c

#n

reale

ordinato

reale
C
ordinato
C
Year 2004

3,090

9,838

0,164

0,439

Year 2010

3,000

9,035

0,266

0,494

Year 2020

2,781

8,646

0,270

0,504

Looking into Technologies



How would a Tech. evolve?



How is it related to the whole?



What are the crucial impacts?



(passive/active)

Technology Trajectories



3D Imaging



Artificial Life



Broadband



Communications



Content Creation



Data Capture



Encryption



Gaming Platforms



Gaming Storage



Human Interfacing



Image Recognition



Information Coding



Information Displaying



Information Retrieval



Interactivity


Language Understanding



Embedded System



Multimode



Person Identification



Pin Pointing



Printing Atoms



Processing



Profiling



Seamless Ubiquitous Access



Security



Sensing



Shadowing



Storage



Virtual Presence



Terminals/Wearable

Technology Trajectories

Full discussion for Telecom Related Trajectories in





HEIDELBERG, Germany


November 9
th

, 2004



You are invited to join!


Technologies Trajectories

Artificial Life



Robotics



Virtual Reality



Self creation: assembling / replicating



Self adaptation: reconfiguration/healing

Artificial Life
-

Robotics

Trajectories



Production oriented



Towards increased


flexibility




Support variety of


application fields




Today: Europe, USA, Japan



Tomorrow: Varies depending on appl.field

Artificial Life
-

Robotics

Trajectories



Production oriented



Autonomous



Towards real


independence



Support remote


exploration, AmI



Today: Japan, USA, Europe



Tomorrow: USA, Japan, ?

Artificial Life
-

Robotics

Trajectories



Production oriented



Autonomous




Symbiotic



Towards closer, spontaneous


interactions, seamless


integration, smarter


robots



Support augmented life,


healthcare, prosthetics



Today: USA



Tomorrow: USA, ?

Artificial Life
-

Robotics

Trajectories



Production oriented



Autonomous




Symbiotic



Social



Towards seamless interaction



Entertainment, Education,…




Today: USA



Tomorrow: USA, Japan

Artificial Life
-

Robotics

Trajectories



Production oriented



Autonomous




Symbiotic



Social



MicroRobots



Towards better movement capabilities


nanoRobots for health care



Support ambient exploration, sensing



Today: USA (nanoRobots), Europe



Tomorrow: ?

Artificial Life
-

Robotics

Trajectories



Production oriented



Autonomous




Symbiotic



Social



MicroRobots



Swarm (Physical, Sw)



Towards collective autonomous intelligence



Support ambient sensing, Meta
-
Info harvest



Today: USA



Tomorrow: USA

Disruptions: Looking for “x”

Disruption

Time

Looking for “x” in processing

?

Time

Mainframes

Mini

PC

PDA

Tablet PC

Smart Obj.

GRID

Looking for “x” in health care

Disruptions, signpost

Time

Understanding

Specificity

Human Genoma

Drug syntheses

Fast Mapping

Symbioses

Monitoring

Bio
-
Substitution

Looking for “x” in health care

Disruptions, signpost

Time

Human Genoma

Drug syntheses

Fast Mapping

Symbioses

Monitoring

Bio
-
Substitution

Wet Ware

Bio Printing

Sensors


U.Acc.

Hi.Sp. Processing

Molecular comp.

Disruptions



Transformation of Products into Services



The Disappearance of the Computer



Ubiquitous seamless connectivity



Changing Traffic Patterns



Infinite Bandwidth



Disposable Products



Autonomous Systems



From Content to Packaging



The emergence of Virtual Infrastructures

From Products to Services

From Products to Services



Technological Enabling Factors



Embedding of communications capabilities



Rising of profiling



Cheaper production processes




Embedded Systems



Seamless Ubiquitotus Access



Communications

From Products to Services



Technological Enabling Factors



Market Driven Factors



Products becoming commodities



Loss of differentiation capabilities



Increased copycat possibilities

From Products to Services



Technological Enabling Factors



Market Driven Factors



Industry Impact



Transformation into service companies



Shortening of products’ life cycle



Strong increase in call centers



Automated customised assistance



Increased globalisation of the market



Restructuring of the value chain


From Products to Services



Technological Enabling Factors



Market Driven Factors



Industry Impact



Market Sectors Affected



Health care



Entertainment



Transportation



Consumer appliances



Education





From Products to Services



Technological Enabling Factors



Market Driven Factors



Industry Impact



Market Sectors Affected



Likeliness to happen



Disruption is already occurring



Connectivity bundled as a service feature



Appliance bundled in connectivity


Key Technology Trajectories

Roberto Saracco

roberto.saracco@tilab.com

Prague, October 22
nd
, 2004