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Nov 6, 2013 (3 years and 5 months ago)

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PROPOSAL
FOR
A FRAMEWORK
OF INDICATORS

For

Pro
-
Poor, Environment Friendly Low Emission Disaster and
Climate Resilient Development


Abu Mostafa Kamal Uddin




General Economics
Division (GED), Planning Commission,
MoP

Government of People’s Republic of Bangladesh












OUTLINE


INTRODUCTION


CONCEPTUAL UNDERSTANDING


OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE


STRUCTURING THE INDICATOR FRAMEWORK


DECISION MAKING & SUPPORT SYSTEM


CONCEPTUAL UNDERSTANDING



Climate
change


Impacts
of climate change on Bangladesh


Poverty
Environment and climate nexus


The Policy Context


The National Planning Process in
Bangladesh


Role of Macro Functionaries


Climate change financing


Negotiation Process


Annual Development
Programme

(ADP)



Implementation

-

Partnership arrangement

-

Monitoring & evaluation

-

Local Governance


Livelihood Outcomes

-

Sustained livelihood

-

More income

-

Improved Well
-
being

-

Reduced vulnerabi
lity

-

Improved food security

Natural

Land


Wetlands

Forest Land

Water

etc.


Soci
al

Relatives
,
Neighbors

formal/informal institu
tion

Salish etc.

Human

Individuals

HH members

Community groups

Service provide
r

Professionals

Policy makers


Options and Activity

-

Farm Labour

-

Fish Labour

-

Weaving, Pottery etc.

-

Fisher (in country)

-

Homestead Gardening

-

Skill based activity (Carpenter, Mechanics, etc.)

-

Seasonal Migration etc.


Policy Adjustment for

Tran
sformational Change

Household Capital / Assets

-

Farm members

-

Homestead

-

House, Latrine

-

Poultry

-

Equipment

etc.


-

VGD Card

-

Micro credit

-

Entitlement etc.

Income

-

Wage (earthwork, labor, housemaid) etc.

-

Sell (fish, vegetable, forest goods,

etc)

-

Safety net and other social benefit

Physical

Infrastructures

Embankment polders

Roads, bridge etc

Public buildings

Industries

Cyclone Shelters

School buildings etc.

Financial

Credit

Growth Centre

Market

Investment


Expenditure


-

Social Paymen
t (mosque, bazar)

-

Consumption (food, medicine, cloth etc.)

-

Investment (maintenance, Savings, education)



Impact on

Resource Base

Climate Change

Weather

extremes, variability and change

Accessibility and
Governance

Climate change livelihood framework


CLIMATE CHANGE LIVELIHOOD FRAMEWOERK

THE POLICY CONTEXT



Bangladesh constitution,15
th

Amendment, Para 18 A


Perspective
plan 2010
-
2021


The Sixth Five Year Plan (SFYP)


National Plan for Disaster Management Plan


Bangladesh
CC
strategy and Action Plan



PURPOSE


Screening the development proposals for ADP,


Mainstreaming
in to development planning


Resource allocation


M & E Results
to support resource allocation process


GENERAL
CONDITIONS


The growth shall not be compromised while introducing safeguards


Ensuring equity and affirmative actions


Maintaining and enhancing environment


Has to be resilient to emerging climate conditions;


Driven by low carbon development philosophy;


Comprehensive
encompass inputs
, outputs and outcome indicators


Aligning

constitution and national policies/
startagies
/plans


Complying MEAs
and treaties that Bangladesh signed and ratified


the framework shall provide guidance for the development of

individual
sets of indicators for specific purposes;


SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES


Promote poverty reduction


Inclusive development


More jobs in particular green jobs, focusing women and socially disadvantaged
groups


Ensure participation


Access to common resources, energy, nutrition


Enhanced social safety nets


Promote climate resilient economy and ecosystem and

sustainable
environment


Sector, ecosystems and community based adaptation


Sustainable land use, wetland and forest management


Greening industries and jobs


Implementation of
sectoral

policies and low emission and

climate
resilient national plan


Support market transformation towards low emission economy


Sustainable transport


Increased energy coverage, enhance energy efficiency, more renewable energy


Low emission technology; mitigation in all sectors


Climate proofing infrastructure


INDICATOR SCHEMATICS

Inputs

Ou
tputs

Outcomes


Legal & Policy
instruments

Institutions,
knowledge, capacity,
tools

direct interventions
(public expenditures)


Health and welfare

Reduced risk

Sustained
Livelihoods,
economic growth

Low emission

Well
-

managed
natural resources




Ena
bling institutional environment
supported by educated professionals
conducive to achieve objectives






Maintained ecosystem functions;
biodiversity






resilient infrastructures; protection






Adaptation measures



Input
-
Output Matrix

Low Em
ission development;

Mitigation


Performance matrix



Ensured acceptance & participation
of people in development
interventions




FRAMING OF
INDICATORS


Categories of
Indicator


Climate change integration


Safety and functioning of interventions


Enhance resilience adaptation and risk reduction


Knowledge management, capacity building and social
communication


USER OF THE
FRAMEWORK

RESOURCE
ALLOCATION


A set of indicators that accounts current (baseline) loss and damage due to

disasters


A set of indicators for loss and damage estimates under climate change

scenarios
without action


A set of indicators that identifies loss of livelihoods due to climate change now

and
projected


Set of indicators to identify cost of inaction


A set of indicators characterizing existing legal, policy and planning

instruments
and gaps


A set of indicators to identify current level of investment in climate resilience,

adaptation
and mitigation (Climate public expenditure by sectors)


A set of indicators for investing in legal, policy and institutional strengthening


A set of indicators that characterizes visions or goals of long term national

plans
and policies like National Sustainable Development Strategy, SFYP,

Vision
2021, perspective plan etc


A set of indicators that collectively become Management Input Indicators to

lead
the development towards pro
-
poor low emitting environment friendly

climate
resilient.



USER OF THE FRAMEWORK


SCREENING
DPP


A set of indicators that would have the main function of characterizing resultant of the
interactions of the climatic parameters on the ecosystems, livelihoods, communities,
infrastructures (CC impacts)



A
set of indicators that characterizes safety and security of the investment, e.g. avoiding
exposure to weather extremes; interventions for managing unavoidable exposure to sustain and
functioning of the investment


A set of indicators that characterizes adaptive functions of the proposed intervention for
ecosystems, livelihoods, infrastructures and community resilience


A set of indicators that assesses Mal
-
adaptation or Anti
-
Adaptation. Ensure the proposed
interventions are not creating obstacle for functioning of ecosystems and infrastructures else
where


A set of indicators that assess emission as well as reduction in emission of the proposals


a set of indicators that characterizes policy, strategy, law, instruments (e.g. climate fiscal
framework),


A set of indicators for strengthening institutional capacity including human development and
a set of tools for effective community mobilization



A set of indicators for poverty reduction, gendered inclusive development and
environmental and social safeguard.


USER OF THE FRAMEWORK


IM& EVALUATION OF DEVELOPMENT INTERVENTIONS


‘Project Monitoring Form’ could be revised and created additional
options for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation
along with poverty and environment. This will provide scope for
tracking implication of the project components.


Along with a separate section for providing relevant description
on DRR and CCA, can be kept for tracking and analyzing those
issues.


In the ‘Project Completion Report’ format similar option could
provide scope for analyzing project contribution related to climate
change and disaster phenomena. This part could focus on the
outcome level indicators for disaster and climate change implication
of the project along with poverty and environment.




USER OF THE FRAMEWORK


DEVELOPING PRO
-
POOR, ENVIRONMENTALLY BEARABLE LOW EMISSION
CLIMATE RESILIENT
PROPOSALS



A set of indicators that characterizes past disaster and climate change lessons and future
implications that could help improving project components to become more resilient.


A set of indicators that characterizes positive and negative environmental implications of the
project components on local bio
-
diversity / ecosystem could help minimizing adverse impact on
natural environment and promoting environmental conservations.


A set of indicators that ensure the accessibility of the poor people or true owner to the natural
resources pool could help in poverty reduction and sustainable economic development


A set of indicators that assess the risk of the project components due to existing disaster and
climate change phenomena as well as the project results from the probable impact of the disaster
and climate variability in the future


a set of indicators that characterizes relevant mitigation measures to reduce the impact of
disaster and climate change on project components and results


DECISION MAKING & SUPPORT SYSTEM

7
. Decision Making
1
. ADP Allocation
2.
Identify Problem and
Objectives
: Project,
programme
,
Research
g
3
.
Select
Screening
indicators
:
low emission,
climate resilient, pro poor,
green
5.
Appraise Options:
suitability, necessity for
adjustment, etc
4.
Assess Impact/Risk
:
based on screening
indicators
8
. Implement Decision:
Ministry, Departments,
NGOs, CSOs
10.
Policy Inputs:
IMED
reports, existing/emerging
priorities, new ideas, etc.
Aligned
with
Policy?
Criteria
Met?
Yes
Yes
No
6
.
Adjustment:
review,
consultation, consensus
between developer and
evaluator
.
9
.
Monitor & Evaluation
:
IMED
No
Low Emission, Pro Poor,
Climate Resilient, Green
Development
EXAMPLES

CLIMATE CHANGE INTEGRATION


Scenarios of climate change


Trends of rain fall for last 60 years; scenarios of rain fall in next 30 years


Degree of temperature prevailing 2030, 2050, 2070 (min and max, over seasons)


Area inundated by flood depth in 2030, 2050, 2070


Area (ha) under agricultural drought


Area (ha) contaminated with salinity amount of Rain fall over seasons and by location in different
years ( # of dry days; heavy rain spells

Prediction modeling


maps (scenarios)


Area (ha) of crop loss due to flash flood


Area (ha) of crop loss due to flood


Area (ha) of crop loss due to draught, cold spell, access rain


Tons estimated loss of rice

Low carbon development


# of sectors GHG inventory done


# of GHG co
-
efficient established

Early warning


Cyclone and storm warning lead time increased compared to baseline


Warning disseminated to # of people using cell broadcast (Cell phone) technology




EXAMPLES

SAFETY OF INTERVENTIONS IN A CHANGING CLIMATE


Infrastructures


Mileage of coastal polders breached


Mileage of polders over topped storm surges


# Cyclone shelters/ schools/public buildings undergo inundation in normal flood
season


# of
Upazila

Risk zone for infrastructure delineated e.g. ( above 25 years flood
return period depth)


# of Public buildings withstand cyclone wind speed (
e.g

240 km /hour)


# of climate resilient habitat established


# of climate resilient design ( e.g. fishing boat that withstand sea turbulence)


# of Climate resilient building designed for different landscape and hazard prone
areas

Risk reduction and management


Area under effective flood protection


Kms

of embankment developed


Km of embankment upgraded to a height beyond predicted flood depth


# of
Upzila

disaster risk management plan implemented


# of local disaster risk management plan development and implementation


Area (ha) under improved natural drainage


% of households with safe drinking water in the coastal zone


% of HH in CZ with sanitary latrine


EXAMPLES

ENHANCE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION


Environment


% of protected area, community Conservation Area (CCA) and Ecologically
Critical Area (ECA) increased


% marine protected area increased


Area urban wetland (ha) protected


Land zoning map developed considering changed conditions

Ecosystem


Area (ha) increase in productive forest cover (70 % tree density)


Area (ha) assisted regeneration of natural forest


Area of wetland sanctuaries established


Mileage of connecting canals excavated


Area of wetlands connectivity with river system established


Area (ha)
Jalmohals

under co
-
management


Area (ha) of swamp forest in
haor

basin regenerated and afforested

EXAMPLES

ENHANCE RESILIENCE AND ADAPTATION

Agriculture


Area (ha) under adaptive agricultural practices e.g. drip irrigation, mulching, diversification, etc


Area (ha) under saline tolerant rice


Area 9ha) under drought resistant variety, etc


Area of fish sanctuary established


Area of co
-
managed wetlands

Energy


MW of electricity generation from wind, solar and bio and micro
-
hydro


MW of electricity saved through energy efficiency


Energy efficient appliances and technologies


Tons of Co2e GHG reduced from energy efficiency, efficient appliances, renewable energy
generation and agricultural practices


# of improved cooking stoves provided to HH

Community


# of community tour operator trained and engaged in eco
-
tourism in protected areas and ECAs


# of community health assistant trained, certified and engaged in controlling water and vector
borne diseases


# of community group organized, registered, trained and engaged in wetland co management


EXAMPLES

KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT



Knowledge management


# of adaptation options identified and tested


# of awareness and sensitization book let prepared


# of loss and damage tools developed


# of training module and manual and guidelines prepared in poverty
-
environment
-
climate
sensitive development


# of guidelines developed for inclusive development


# of guidelines developed for participation


# of organizational development manual prepared

Capacity building


# of the professionals trained in Poverty


Environment


Climate integration and
mainstreaming


# of policies and strategies amended, rules of business adjusted


Jolmahal

leasing system converted in favor of pro
-
poor community based management


Amount allocated in logistics for servicing emerging issues of the development

Social communication


# of community radio established


# of thematic topics on air


Hours of coverage in electronic media for PEC


# of articles in printing media


# of social event and # of people addressed


Thanks