US Energy Efficiency Potential - University of Miami

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Maxine L. Savitz


Ju




December 6, 2010






University of Miami






















America’s Energy Future:

Challenges and Opportunities

Key Forces Shaping U.S. Energy Situation

•
Increasing world energy demand

stemming from
economic globalization, particularly in developing nations,
and especially China, tightens energy markets.

•
U.S. oil imports
comprise nearly 60 percent of the U.S. oil
use, up from 40 percent in 1990
—
alternatives are limited.

•
Energy price volatility

has been unprecedented in last two
years, continuing to complicate market decisions.

•
Long term reliability of traditional energy sources
,
especially oil, is uncertain and will continue to be so.

•
Mounting concerns about global climate change
, largely
from burning fossil fuels that provide most world energy,
are increasingly a significant factor in energy decisions.

‡
U.S. Energy infrastructure is massive and slowly adapts

to
change and vulnerable to natural disasters and terrorism.

2

Total Energy Use Projections for Selected
Countries: 2006 and 2009 Projections

U.S. and China energy use will be the same in 2014

Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook

3

Energy Intensity of the U.S. Economy*

Relative to 1970 levels

1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
Energy Intensity* (1970=1)
*Energy consumed per dollar GDP (2000 constant dollars)
Source: Based on EIA, 2006
Projected
Historical
Oil
Total Energy
Electricity
Energy Efficiency and Economic Structural Change

4

America’s Energy Future:
Technology Opportunities,
Risks, and Tradeoffs



October 2008

December 9, 2009

http://www.nationalacademies.org/energy

May 20, 2009


June 15, 2009

July 29, 2009

5

Key Objectives of
America’s Energy Future
(AEF)
“Foundational Study” (Phase 1)

•
Provide transparent and authoritative
estimates of the current contributions and
future potential of existing and new energy
supply and demand technologies, impacts
and costs, focusing on the next two decades.

‡
Resolve conflicting analyses.

To facilitate a productive national policy

GLDORJXH?DERXW?WKH?QDWLRQ∙V?HQHUJ\?IXWXUH

6

7


Finding 1: Potential for Transformational Change



With a sustained national commitment, the United States

could obtain substantial energy
-
efficiency

improvements, new sources of energy, and reductions in

greenhouse gas emissions through the accelerated

deployment of existing and emerging energy
-
supply and

end
-
use technologies.

“Bucket 1”

“Bucket 2”

“Bucket 3”

2008
2020
2035
2040
2050
8


Finding 2: Energy Efficiency Potential



The deployment of existing energy
-
efficiency
technologies is the nearest
-
term and lowest
-
cost option
for moderating our nation’s demand for energy,
especially over the next decade.

15 Percent (15
-
17 Quads) by 2020

30 Percent (32
-
35 Quads) by 2030

2008
2020
2035
2040
2050
NOTE: Even greater savings would be
possible with more aggressive policies
and incentives.

9

Finding 3: Electricity Supply Options

The United States has many promising options for
obtaining new supplies of electricity and changing its
supply mix during the next two to three decades,
especially if carbon capture and storage (CCS) and
evolutionary nuclear technologies can be deployed at
required scales.

However, the deployment of these new supply
technologies is very likely to result in higher consumer
prices for electricity.

Terawatt-hours
Renewables
340
Coal CCS Retrofits

New Coal CCS


Nuclear Power Uprates
New Nuclear Power Plants


***conventional coal
****existing nuclear
NOTE: Estimates are not additive
63
63
95
****
2000
0
1200
74
1800
800
Current
***
790
500
2035
1100
2008
2020
10

Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation

11


Finding 5: Continued Dependence on Oil


Petroleum will continue to be an indispensable

transportation fuel through at least 2035.

EIA Reference Case through 2030

Total Energy

Quadrillion Btu per year

Cellulosic Ethanol
0
Coal to Liquids with CCS
0
Coal-and-biomass-to-Liquids
0

0.5
1.7
Current
0
3
0
2.5
Million Barrels of Gasoline
Equivalent Per Day
2020
2008
2035
Transportation


Million barrels of gasoline equivalent per day

Reminder: Estimates are not additive

12

Other Key

Findings

•
Expansion and modernization of the nation’s
electrical transmission and distribution systems are
urgently needed. (Finding 4)

•
Substantial reduction in GHG emissions from the
electricity and transportation sectors achievable
over the next two to three decades through a
portfolio approach. (Finding 6)

•
To enable accelerated deployment of new energy
technologies starting 2020, public and private sector
will need to perform extensive RD & D over the next
decade. (Finding 7)

•
Barriers can delay or prevent accelerated
deployment; policy and regulatory actions will be
required to overcome the barriers. (Finding 8)

U.S. Energy Efficiency Potential

(Quadrillions of Btus [quads])

•
U.S. energy use (2008): 101 quads

•
EIA projected U.S. energy use (2030): 118 quads

•
Energy efficiency savings potential: 35 quads
saved

•
Net U.S. 2030 energy use: 83 quads


•
35 quads/yr savings potential by 2030, saving
money & energy

13

14

Industry
33%
(33.2 quads)
Commercial
Buildings
18%
(18.6 quads)
Residential
Buildings
21%
(22 quads)
Transportation
28%
(28.5 quads)
Total U.S. Energy Use by Sector, 2008

15

U.S. Delivered Energy Use by Sectors (2007)

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
Renewables
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Through Electricity
U.S. Delivered Energy Use by Sectors (2007)
(quads)
16

U.S. Delivered CO2 by Sector

0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Through Electricity
(Million
Tonnes
CO
2
)
U.S. Delivered CO
2
Emissions by Sector (2007)
17

Energy Usage in U.S. Residential & Commercial
Sectors

Growth in Energy Usage in Buildings Could be Reduced 30 Percent from

Projected Increase by 2030 (APS Finding 1)

Source: American Physical Society (2008), U.S. DOE, EERE, Energy Data Book (2007)

18

Potential Electricity Savings in Commercial and
Residential Buildings, 2020 and 2030


U.S. Trends in Refrigerator Appliance Efficiency

19

1978 CA *

1980 CA
*

1987 CA *

1993 NECA *

2001 DOE *

* Standards


Refrigerator Volume (cubic feet)

20

Cost of Conserved Energy:

Residential and Commercial Electricity

21

Advanced Technologies Provide for Additional
Energy Efficiency

•
Solid state lighting

•
Advanced windows

•
Integrated cooling systems

•
Sensors and controls

•
Low
-
energy and zero
-
net energy new homes

•
Low
-
energy new commercial buildings


22

Recent New DOE Programs Relevant to
Buildings

•
ARPA
–

E

–
Building Energy Efficiency Through Innovative
Thermo Devices

–
Power Electronics

•
HUB: Improved Energy Efficient Building
Systems Designs

•
Homestar

•
Retrofit Ramp
-
up

•
Smart Grid
–

ARRA Grants


23

U.S. Transportation Energy Consumption

by Mode

Source: American Physical Society (2008)

Energy Price Volatility: An Recent Illustration

24

25

Fuel Economy of U.S. Light Duty Vehicles and
Trucks (1975
-
2005)

Source: American Physical Society (2008)

Class 6 to 8 trucks

Light Duty Vehicles Dominate the U.S. Vehicle
Fleet

Class of Vehicle
Type of Vehicle
Cars
137
53.7%
Light Trucks
101
39.6%
Heavy Trucks
7
2.7%
Other Trucks
2
0.8%
Motorcycles
8
3.1%
8
3.1%
100.0%
3.5%
93.3%
Number of
Vehicles
(millions)
Number of
Vehicles
(millions)
Light Duty
Vehicles
Medium &
Heavy Duty
Total
255
255
All
238
9
100.0%
26

27

Relative Fuel Consumption of Future Cars by
Power Train

28

Plausible Shares of Advanced Light
-
Duty
Vehicles in the New Vehicle Market by 2020
and 2035


Propulsion System
2020
2035
Turbocharged Gasoline SI
15-25%
25-35%
Diesels
6-12%
10-20%
Gasoline Hybrids
10-15%
15-40%
Plug-in Hybrids
1-3%
7-15%
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
0-1%
3-6%
Battery Electric Vehicles
0-2%
3-10%
Plausible LDV Market Share by
The Potential for Energy Efficiency
Improvements in Large Vehicles is Very Large

Fuel Consumption Benefit

29

Source: Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium
-

and Heavy
-
Duty Vehicles, NRC, 2010

Costs to Achieve Fuel Economy
Improvement

30

Source: Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium
-

and Heavy
-
Duty Vehicles, NRC, 2010

31

Total Energy Use in the Industrial Sector (2004)

32

Estimated Energy Savings Due to Energy
Efficiency Improvements

(quads)

INDUSTRY

ENERGY USE IN INDUSTRY

SAVINGS OVER BAU IN 2020
(1),(2)

2007

BAU PROJECTION (DOE/EIA
REFERENCE CASE)

SAVINGS

IN

2020
(
1
),(
2
)

2020

2030

Petroleum
Refining

4
.
09

6
.
07

7
.
27

0
.
77

–

2
.
81

Iron & Steel

1
.
38

1
.
36

1
.
29

0
.
21

–

0
.
76

Cement

0
.
44

0
.
43

0
.
41

0
.
04

–

0
.
39

Bulk Chemicals

6
.
85

6
.
08

5
.
60

0
.
30

Pulp & Paper

2
.
15

2
.
31

2
.
49

0
.
53

–

0
.
85

Total Savings
–

All industries
(including those
not shown)

4.9
–

7.7
(3)

14
%

-

22
%

NOTES

(
1
)

Based

on

a

review

of

studies

for

specific

major

energy
-
using

industries,

for

industrial

combined

heat

and

power

(CHP),

and

for

industry

as

a

whole
.

(
2
)

Savings

shown

are

for

cost
-
effective

technologies,

defined

as

those

providing

an

internal

rate
-
of
-
return

of

at

least

10
%
.

(
3
)

Includes

0
.
7

–

2
.
0

quads

from

CHP

systems
.

33

Cross
-
sectoral Technologies to Provide
Additional Savings

•
Combined heat and power

•
Materials, nanotechnology

•
Alternative feedstocks

•
Steam and process heat

•
Separation

•
Sensors and controls


34

Barriers to Adopting Energy Efficient
Technologies


•
Price of energy

•
Lack of information

•
Capital availability

•
Fiscal and regulatory policies

•
Ownership

•
Technical risk

•
Human and psychological factors


35

Estimates of Energy Savings from Major
Energy
-
Efficiency Policies and Programs

Policy or program
Electricity
savings
(TWh/yr)
Primary energy
savings
(Quads/yr)
Year
CAFÉ
vehicle
efficiency
standards
--
4.80
2006
Appliance
efficiency
standards
196
2.58
2006
PURPA
and
other
CHP
initiatives
--
1.62
2006
ENERY
STAR
labeling
and
promotion
132
1.52
2006
Building energy codes
--
1.08
2006
Utility
and
state
end-use
efficiency programs
90
1.06
2006
DOE
industrial
efficiency
programs
--
0.40
2005
Weatherization
assistance
program
--
0.14
2006
Federal
energy
management
program
--
0.11
2005
TOTAL
--
13.32
--
36

Per Capita Electricity Consumption in
California, New York, and U.S. (1990
-
2006)


Per Capita Consumption of Electricity
(not including on-site generation)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
kWh/person
United States
California
Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $
1975
2005
% change
US GDP/capita
16,241
31,442
94%
Cal GSP/capita
18,760
33,536
79%
New York
Policies and Programs Can Overcome Barriers

37

Summary of Overarching Findings

1.
Deployment of energy efficiency technologies is
the nearest term and lowest cost option.

2.
Savings in electricity from buildings could
eliminate the need to add to electricity generation
through 2030.

3.
Barriers to improving energy efficiency are
formidable, need sustained initiative, experience
from states.

4.
Long
-
lived capital stock and infrastructure can
“lock in” pattern of energy use for decades.

Recent Relevant Academy Reports

America’s Energy Future


America’s Climate Choices


TRB Special Report 298: Driving and the Built

Environment


Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel
Consumption of Medium and Heavy
-
Duty Vehicles



www.nationalacademies.org

38

2020
2030
2020
2030
Buildings, primary (source) electricity
9.4
14.4
9.4
14.4
Residential
4.4
6.4
4.4
6.4
Commercial
5.0
8.0
5.0
8.0
Buildings, natural gas
2.4
3.0
2.4
3.0
Residential
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Commercial
0.9
1.5
0.9
1.5
Transportation, light duty vehicles
2.0
8.2
2.6
10.7
Industry, manufacturing
4.9
4.9
7.7
7.7
Total
18.6
30.5
22.1
35.8
Conservative
Optimistic
NOTE: Savings are relative to the reference scenario of the
EIA’s
2008 Annual
Energy Outlook
or
, for transportation, a
similar scenario developed by the panel.

Potential for Cost
-
Effective Annual U.S. Energy

Savings

(quadrillions of Btus)

39