1
Maxine L. Savitz
Ju
December 6, 2010
University of Miami
America’s Energy Future:
Challenges and Opportunities
Key Forces Shaping U.S. Energy Situation
•
Increasing world energy demand
stemming from
economic globalization, particularly in developing nations,
and especially China, tightens energy markets.
•
U.S. oil imports
comprise nearly 60 percent of the U.S. oil
use, up from 40 percent in 1990
—
alternatives are limited.
•
Energy price volatility
has been unprecedented in last two
years, continuing to complicate market decisions.
•
Long term reliability of traditional energy sources
,
especially oil, is uncertain and will continue to be so.
•
Mounting concerns about global climate change
, largely
from burning fossil fuels that provide most world energy,
are increasingly a significant factor in energy decisions.
‡
U.S. Energy infrastructure is massive and slowly adapts
to
change and vulnerable to natural disasters and terrorism.
2
Total Energy Use Projections for Selected
Countries: 2006 and 2009 Projections
U.S. and China energy use will be the same in 2014
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook
3
Energy Intensity of the U.S. Economy*
Relative to 1970 levels
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
Energy Intensity* (1970=1)
*Energy consumed per dollar GDP (2000 constant dollars)
Source: Based on EIA, 2006
Projected
Historical
Oil
Total Energy
Electricity
Energy Efficiency and Economic Structural Change
4
America’s Energy Future:
Technology Opportunities,
Risks, and Tradeoffs
October 2008
December 9, 2009
http://www.nationalacademies.org/energy
May 20, 2009
June 15, 2009
July 29, 2009
5
Key Objectives of
America’s Energy Future
(AEF)
“Foundational Study” (Phase 1)
•
Provide transparent and authoritative
estimates of the current contributions and
future potential of existing and new energy
supply and demand technologies, impacts
and costs, focusing on the next two decades.
‡
Resolve conflicting analyses.
To facilitate a productive national policy
GLDORJXH?DERXW?WKH?QDWLRQ∙V?HQHUJ\?IXWXUH
6
7
Finding 1: Potential for Transformational Change
With a sustained national commitment, the United States
could obtain substantial energy
-
efficiency
improvements, new sources of energy, and reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions through the accelerated
deployment of existing and emerging energy
-
supply and
end
-
use technologies.
“Bucket 1”
“Bucket 2”
“Bucket 3”
2008
2020
2035
2040
2050
8
Finding 2: Energy Efficiency Potential
The deployment of existing energy
-
efficiency
technologies is the nearest
-
term and lowest
-
cost option
for moderating our nation’s demand for energy,
especially over the next decade.
15 Percent (15
-
17 Quads) by 2020
30 Percent (32
-
35 Quads) by 2030
2008
2020
2035
2040
2050
NOTE: Even greater savings would be
possible with more aggressive policies
and incentives.
9
Finding 3: Electricity Supply Options
The United States has many promising options for
obtaining new supplies of electricity and changing its
supply mix during the next two to three decades,
especially if carbon capture and storage (CCS) and
evolutionary nuclear technologies can be deployed at
required scales.
However, the deployment of these new supply
technologies is very likely to result in higher consumer
prices for electricity.
Terawatt-hours
Renewables
340
Coal CCS Retrofits
New Coal CCS
Nuclear Power Uprates
New Nuclear Power Plants
***conventional coal
****existing nuclear
NOTE: Estimates are not additive
63
63
95
****
2000
0
1200
74
1800
800
Current
***
790
500
2035
1100
2008
2020
10
Levelized Cost of Electricity Generation
11
Finding 5: Continued Dependence on Oil
Petroleum will continue to be an indispensable
transportation fuel through at least 2035.
EIA Reference Case through 2030
Total Energy
Quadrillion Btu per year
Cellulosic Ethanol
0
Coal to Liquids with CCS
0
Coal-and-biomass-to-Liquids
0
0.5
1.7
Current
0
3
0
2.5
Million Barrels of Gasoline
Equivalent Per Day
2020
2008
2035
Transportation
Million barrels of gasoline equivalent per day
Reminder: Estimates are not additive
12
Other Key
Findings
•
Expansion and modernization of the nation’s
electrical transmission and distribution systems are
urgently needed. (Finding 4)
•
Substantial reduction in GHG emissions from the
electricity and transportation sectors achievable
over the next two to three decades through a
portfolio approach. (Finding 6)
•
To enable accelerated deployment of new energy
technologies starting 2020, public and private sector
will need to perform extensive RD & D over the next
decade. (Finding 7)
•
Barriers can delay or prevent accelerated
deployment; policy and regulatory actions will be
required to overcome the barriers. (Finding 8)
U.S. Energy Efficiency Potential
(Quadrillions of Btus [quads])
•
U.S. energy use (2008): 101 quads
•
EIA projected U.S. energy use (2030): 118 quads
•
Energy efficiency savings potential: 35 quads
saved
•
Net U.S. 2030 energy use: 83 quads
•
35 quads/yr savings potential by 2030, saving
money & energy
13
14
Industry
33%
(33.2 quads)
Commercial
Buildings
18%
(18.6 quads)
Residential
Buildings
21%
(22 quads)
Transportation
28%
(28.5 quads)
Total U.S. Energy Use by Sector, 2008
15
U.S. Delivered Energy Use by Sectors (2007)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
Renewables
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Through Electricity
U.S. Delivered Energy Use by Sectors (2007)
(quads)
16
U.S. Delivered CO2 by Sector
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Residential
Commercial
Industrial
Transportation
Coal
Natural Gas
Petroleum
Through Electricity
(Million
Tonnes
CO
2
)
U.S. Delivered CO
2
Emissions by Sector (2007)
17
Energy Usage in U.S. Residential & Commercial
Sectors
Growth in Energy Usage in Buildings Could be Reduced 30 Percent from
Projected Increase by 2030 (APS Finding 1)
Source: American Physical Society (2008), U.S. DOE, EERE, Energy Data Book (2007)
18
Potential Electricity Savings in Commercial and
Residential Buildings, 2020 and 2030
U.S. Trends in Refrigerator Appliance Efficiency
19
1978 CA *
1980 CA
*
1987 CA *
1993 NECA *
2001 DOE *
* Standards
Refrigerator Volume (cubic feet)
20
Cost of Conserved Energy:
Residential and Commercial Electricity
21
Advanced Technologies Provide for Additional
Energy Efficiency
•
Solid state lighting
•
Advanced windows
•
Integrated cooling systems
•
Sensors and controls
•
Low
-
energy and zero
-
net energy new homes
•
Low
-
energy new commercial buildings
22
Recent New DOE Programs Relevant to
Buildings
•
ARPA
–
E
–
Building Energy Efficiency Through Innovative
Thermo Devices
–
Power Electronics
•
HUB: Improved Energy Efficient Building
Systems Designs
•
Homestar
•
Retrofit Ramp
-
up
•
Smart Grid
–
ARRA Grants
23
U.S. Transportation Energy Consumption
by Mode
Source: American Physical Society (2008)
Energy Price Volatility: An Recent Illustration
24
25
Fuel Economy of U.S. Light Duty Vehicles and
Trucks (1975
-
2005)
Source: American Physical Society (2008)
Class 6 to 8 trucks
Light Duty Vehicles Dominate the U.S. Vehicle
Fleet
Class of Vehicle
Type of Vehicle
Cars
137
53.7%
Light Trucks
101
39.6%
Heavy Trucks
7
2.7%
Other Trucks
2
0.8%
Motorcycles
8
3.1%
8
3.1%
100.0%
3.5%
93.3%
Number of
Vehicles
(millions)
Number of
Vehicles
(millions)
Light Duty
Vehicles
Medium &
Heavy Duty
Total
255
255
All
238
9
100.0%
26
27
Relative Fuel Consumption of Future Cars by
Power Train
28
Plausible Shares of Advanced Light
-
Duty
Vehicles in the New Vehicle Market by 2020
and 2035
Propulsion System
2020
2035
Turbocharged Gasoline SI
15-25%
25-35%
Diesels
6-12%
10-20%
Gasoline Hybrids
10-15%
15-40%
Plug-in Hybrids
1-3%
7-15%
Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
0-1%
3-6%
Battery Electric Vehicles
0-2%
3-10%
Plausible LDV Market Share by
The Potential for Energy Efficiency
Improvements in Large Vehicles is Very Large
Fuel Consumption Benefit
29
Source: Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium
-
and Heavy
-
Duty Vehicles, NRC, 2010
Costs to Achieve Fuel Economy
Improvement
30
Source: Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel Consumption of Medium
-
and Heavy
-
Duty Vehicles, NRC, 2010
31
Total Energy Use in the Industrial Sector (2004)
32
Estimated Energy Savings Due to Energy
Efficiency Improvements
(quads)
INDUSTRY
ENERGY USE IN INDUSTRY
SAVINGS OVER BAU IN 2020
(1),(2)
2007
BAU PROJECTION (DOE/EIA
REFERENCE CASE)
SAVINGS
IN
2020
(
1
),(
2
)
2020
2030
Petroleum
Refining
4
.
09
6
.
07
7
.
27
0
.
77
–
2
.
81
Iron & Steel
1
.
38
1
.
36
1
.
29
0
.
21
–
0
.
76
Cement
0
.
44
0
.
43
0
.
41
0
.
04
–
0
.
39
Bulk Chemicals
6
.
85
6
.
08
5
.
60
0
.
30
Pulp & Paper
2
.
15
2
.
31
2
.
49
0
.
53
–
0
.
85
Total Savings
–
All industries
(including those
not shown)
4.9
–
7.7
(3)
14
%
-
22
%
NOTES
(
1
)
Based
on
a
review
of
studies
for
specific
major
energy
-
using
industries,
for
industrial
combined
heat
and
power
(CHP),
and
for
industry
as
a
whole
.
(
2
)
Savings
shown
are
for
cost
-
effective
technologies,
defined
as
those
providing
an
internal
rate
-
of
-
return
of
at
least
10
%
.
(
3
)
Includes
0
.
7
–
2
.
0
quads
from
CHP
systems
.
33
Cross
-
sectoral Technologies to Provide
Additional Savings
•
Combined heat and power
•
Materials, nanotechnology
•
Alternative feedstocks
•
Steam and process heat
•
Separation
•
Sensors and controls
34
Barriers to Adopting Energy Efficient
Technologies
•
Price of energy
•
Lack of information
•
Capital availability
•
Fiscal and regulatory policies
•
Ownership
•
Technical risk
•
Human and psychological factors
35
Estimates of Energy Savings from Major
Energy
-
Efficiency Policies and Programs
Policy or program
Electricity
savings
(TWh/yr)
Primary energy
savings
(Quads/yr)
Year
CAFÉ
vehicle
efficiency
standards
--
4.80
2006
Appliance
efficiency
standards
196
2.58
2006
PURPA
and
other
CHP
initiatives
--
1.62
2006
ENERY
STAR
labeling
and
promotion
132
1.52
2006
Building energy codes
--
1.08
2006
Utility
and
state
end-use
efficiency programs
90
1.06
2006
DOE
industrial
efficiency
programs
--
0.40
2005
Weatherization
assistance
program
--
0.14
2006
Federal
energy
management
program
--
0.11
2005
TOTAL
--
13.32
--
36
Per Capita Electricity Consumption in
California, New York, and U.S. (1990
-
2006)
Per Capita Consumption of Electricity
(not including on-site generation)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
kWh/person
United States
California
Per Capita Income in Constant 2000 $
1975
2005
% change
US GDP/capita
16,241
31,442
94%
Cal GSP/capita
18,760
33,536
79%
New York
Policies and Programs Can Overcome Barriers
37
Summary of Overarching Findings
1.
Deployment of energy efficiency technologies is
the nearest term and lowest cost option.
2.
Savings in electricity from buildings could
eliminate the need to add to electricity generation
through 2030.
3.
Barriers to improving energy efficiency are
formidable, need sustained initiative, experience
from states.
4.
Long
-
lived capital stock and infrastructure can
“lock in” pattern of energy use for decades.
Recent Relevant Academy Reports
America’s Energy Future
America’s Climate Choices
TRB Special Report 298: Driving and the Built
Environment
Technologies and Approaches to Reducing the Fuel
Consumption of Medium and Heavy
-
Duty Vehicles
www.nationalacademies.org
38
2020
2030
2020
2030
Buildings, primary (source) electricity
9.4
14.4
9.4
14.4
Residential
4.4
6.4
4.4
6.4
Commercial
5.0
8.0
5.0
8.0
Buildings, natural gas
2.4
3.0
2.4
3.0
Residential
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Commercial
0.9
1.5
0.9
1.5
Transportation, light duty vehicles
2.0
8.2
2.6
10.7
Industry, manufacturing
4.9
4.9
7.7
7.7
Total
18.6
30.5
22.1
35.8
Conservative
Optimistic
NOTE: Savings are relative to the reference scenario of the
EIA’s
2008 Annual
Energy Outlook
or
, for transportation, a
similar scenario developed by the panel.
Potential for Cost
-
Effective Annual U.S. Energy
Savings
(quadrillions of Btus)
39
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