Where is UK energy going:

whirrtarragonElectronics - Devices

Nov 21, 2013 (3 years and 9 months ago)

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Where is UK energy going:

a
nd will it get there?

Professor John Loughhead OBE
FREng

FTSE

Executive Director

Andrew Little Lecture Series

Warwick University School of Engineering

1 December 2011

UK Energy Policy Objectives


Environmental

-

80% reduction of
CO
2

emissions* by 2050 (34% by
2022)


Renewables to supply 15% of UK energy by
2020 (currently ≈3%)


10% of road transport to be biofuel by
2020


20% improvement in energy efficiency by
2020


Security

-

Maintain reliability of
energy supplies


Economic

-

Promote competitive
markets


Social

-

Ensure every home is
adequately heated


*Compared to 1990 levels


http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2008/pdf/ukpga_200800
32_en.pdf

http://www.opsi.gov.uk/acts/acts2008/pdf/ukpga_200800
27_en.pdf


Energy Act 2008

Climate Change Act 2008

184

134

103

108

98

42


International aviation
& shipping*


UK non
-
CO
2

GHGs

Other CO
2


Industry (heat &
industrial processes)



Residential &
Commercial heat




Domestic transport




Electricity Generation





* bunker fuels basis





2050 objective

159 Mt CO
2
e


695 Mt CO
2
e

The scale of the UK challenge

Source: Committee on Climate Change

Large emissions reduction needed to 2050

3.2% p.a.
reduction
2008
-
2030

4.7% p.a.
reduction
2030
-
2050

2050 allowed emissions

4
th

Carbon Budget
emissions to 2030

2

2

Source: CCC (2010) The Fourth Carbon Budget


This decarbonisation will require 30
-
40 GW
new low
-
carbon capacity through the 2020s

Note: Intermittent technologies are
adjusted to be baseload equivalent

36 GW new capacity
in 2020s

The whole problem?


Consumption based accounting


Onshore Wind Resource


Source:
Riso

National Laboratory

Offshore Wind Resource


Source:
Riso

National Laboratory



Evolution in installed capacity by technology

2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
2024/25
2025/26
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2011/12
2012/13
2013/14
2014/15
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
2019/20
2020/21
2021/22
2022/23
2023/24
Decadal Change in Installed Capacity GW

0
10
20
30
40
2010/11
2020/21
Projected net generation capacity change to 2020/21


Source: National Grid June 2011


-
40
-
20
0
20
40
60
80
Fixed demand net intermittent generation
Flexible Demand
Exports & pumped storage
How does the system cope with high
renewables? Snapshot from Feb (2006) with 50%
renewables

Source: Poyry
Zephyr model

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
01
-
Feb
03
-
Feb
05
-
Feb
07
-
Feb
09
-
Feb
11
-
Feb
13
-
Feb
15
-
Feb
17
-
Feb
19
-
Feb
Offshore wind
Onshore wind
Solar
Wave + tidal stream
Fixed demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Nuclear
Non
-
intermittent res
CCSCoal
IGCC
CCSGas
CCGT
Peaker
Imports
VehiclesToGrid (GW)
Pumped Storage
Demandshedding
Fixed

demand
and
intermittent

generation
(GW)

Controllable
demand

(GW)


Controllable
supply (GW)


Shape of fixed demand quite
regular

Low wind

Flexible demand
moves to high wind
periods

Increas
ed
exports

Wind close to capacity
(59GW)

Increased
imports

Flexible demand
shifts to overnight,
no exports

Wind generation and speed Glasgow 3 February 2011


Source: National Grid June 2011

Demand and wind output Jan 2010 scaled to
projected wind capacity 2020


Source: National Grid June 2011

Implied thermal generation requirement


Projection for November load 2020 from National Grid




Cost

Time

BaU

Smart

Today

Strategic investment in Smart Grid Technologies: opportunity for
the UK to provide leadership at the international level

What is a smart grid?


Should be able to sense, understand
and react to the flow of electricity.


Able to actively integrate demand,
storage and distributed generation.


Able to inform customers of their
energy demand and usage


Customers can actively participate in
the energy market

Drivers for Change within Value Chain


Energy
consumers
Distribution

DNOs

Utilities
(ESCOs
)
Transmission

TSOs

GBSOs
Large
-
scale
Traditional
Generation


Rise of total electricity
consumption (eg
electrification of
vehicles and heating).



Increasing cost of
brown
-
outs or black
-
outs to a developed
nation’s economy.



Rise of the number of
prosumers wanting to
feed their energy
surplus into the grid.



Cost of distribution
losses (losses of
around 6 to 9%).



Old network
infrastructure built in
the 60s.



The rise of Distributed
Energy Generation.



Two
-
way
communication and
energy flows required
for future Smart Grid.



Cost of transmission
losses (losses of around
1 to 2%).



Old network
infrastructure built in the
60s.



Inter
-
connection with
other European
countries.



Connection of offshore
wind farms.



Rise of inflexible and
intermittent electricity
generation.



Diminishing overall
capacity of UK major
power producers.



Cost of peak power
plants.

Future Electricity Value Chain: A Smart Grid
Scenario

Energy
consumers
New Value
C
hain Players
Distributed Energy
Generation

Prosumers

Virtual Power Plants
*
Relevant
to the
success
of smart grid
deployment but
outside the scope of this
study
ICT
Solution Providers
L
arge
-
scale
R
enewable
Generation

Wind

Wave & tidal

Biomass
Large
-
scale
Storage
Infrastructure
Small to
Medium
Scale Storage
Infrastructure
Small
-
scale
Generator
M
anufacturers
*
Electric
Heating
,
& Electric Cars
M
anufacturers
*
Smart
Meters &
Home Appliances
Providers
*
Distribution

DNOs

Utilities
(ESCOs
)
Transmission

TSOs

GBSOs
Large
-
scale
Traditional
Generation
Conventional Value Chain
Smart Grid Roadmap to 2020


Impact of barriers to entry for smart grid technology vendors

(comparison of experts’ perception vs. potential suppliers’ perception)


UK Smart Grids
Capabilities
Development
Programme Report



Published September
2011



Can be downloaded
free from:

www.innovateuk.org/web/energyktn

Technologies in Grid Capabilities


Experts’ Perspective: Capability vs Criticality Ratings


Experts’ Forecast for Near Future R&D Needs

(box’ sizes proportional to expected R&D investment in next 5 years)


Impact of barriers to entry for smart grid technology vendors

(comparison of experts’ perception vs. potential suppliers’ perception)


7.0
8.5
11.0
10.5
15.5
21.0
5.0
5.5
7.0
5.0
8.5
13.5
25.0
23.0
31.5
31.0
10.0
14.5
15.0
14.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Onshore
wind
Offshore
wind
Solar PV
Tidal
stream
Wave
Severn
barrage*
Nuclear
Gas CCS
Coal CCS
Unabated
gas
Levelised cost (p/kWh)
2030 (10% discount rate)
2030
: Wide range of low
-
carbon technologies likely to be
cheaper than unabated fossil fuel facing a carbon price of
£70/t, but uncertain which will be cheapest in long term

Note: 2010 prices. Source: CCC calculations based on Mott MacDonald (2011)
Costs of low
-
carbon technologies,
*Severn barrage costs
(Cardiff Weston scheme) from DECC (2010)
Severn Tidal Feasibility Study.

Reported actual costs for offshore
wind

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
£0
£500,000
£1,000,000
£1,500,000
£2,000,000
£2,500,000
£3,000,000
£3,500,000
£4,000,000
£4,500,000
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
MW

GBP

Year

Average actual CAPEX (per MW, 2009 GBP)

UK installed offshore capacity
In-year avg capex
In-year Min
In-year Max
Source: UKERC report “Great Expectations”, 2010

£0
£500,000
£1,000,000
£1,500,000
£2,000,000
£2,500,000
£3,000,000
£3,500,000
£4,000,000
£4,500,000
£5,000,000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
GBP
Forecast Year
In
-
year average forecast CAPEX per MW, 2009 GBP (plus
reported actual costs)
Forecasts made upto 2005
Forecasts made from 2005 onwards
Reported actual costs (in
-
year average)
Summary of published forecast and actual costs for
offshore wind

Source: UKERC report “Great Expectations”, 2010

Putting it all together


the best, the
worst, and our best guess

50
70
90
110
130
150
170
190
210
2009 Base case
Worst case
Best guess
Best case
£/MWh

Offshore wind levelised costs

projections (mid 2020s)


Greater supply chain
confidence


the ‘Round
3 effect’


Competition emerging in
turbine making


Innovation and efficiency
gains, especially in
turbine size and
technology and in
foundation design (but
not radical changes)


Scale effects and
standardisation


Improved O&M, reliability
and better load factors



Source: UKERC report “Great Expectations”, 2010

Key role of subsidies


Carillion warns of job cuts due to
slashing of solar energy subsidies

Changes to feed
-
in tariffs results in fears
for future of energy services division

1 December 2011


Chart of gas prices

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011

US Gas Price Trends


Distribution of proved gas
reserves

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011

Drilling technologies advance

Global Gas Resource Estimate

Source: Chatham House Report 2010 by Paul Stephens


Gas production/consumption by
region

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2011


Primary energy world
consumption


Primary energy consumption by
region

Transport Energy Efficiency


EU proposal for
average

new car emission standard
of 130 gCO
2
/km by 2012


Vehicle fuel duty set at high levels
-

currently
£0.52/litre for petrol and £0.55/litre for diesel
(retail price $NZ 2.50 and $NZ 2.65 respectively)


Company car taxation and vehicle excise duty
(VED) now both based on CO
2

emissions


Energy labelling of new vehicles (and aircraft)


Government funded information programmes


Road use tax, active traffic management review

Electric Vehicles

King Report 2008


By 2050 almost complete decarbonisation
of transport realistic ambition


Need to move focus from biofuels back to
automotive technology


Low emission technologies need to be
brought from shelf to showroom as asap


Package of policies should be set in
international context

Electric Vehicles by 2011

Tesla Model S

Chevrolet Volt

Coda EV

Nissan Leaf

Hyundai Sonata

Fisker Karma

Renault Fluence ZE

Renault Kangoo Express

Autolib


Paris launching a green scheme to provide electric
cars that drivers can pick up and drop off anywhere
in the city


4,000 electric cars for drivers to help themselves
for short journeys


First electric car project of its kind in a capital city


In less than a year, Paris's army of cheap, on
-
street
hire
-
bicycles called Vélib' has transformed
transport habits and bike awareness


Potential for fuel cell transport (doE)

Today

s
Gasoline
Vehicle
0
100
200
300
400
FCV - C. Wind
FCV - Nuke
FCV - C. Biomass
FCV - Coal w/
FCV - Natural Gas
PHEV - 40 - E85
PHEV - 40 - Gasoline
HEV - Cellulosic E85
HEV - Corn E85
HEV - Diesel
HEV - Gasoline
ICEV- Natural Gas
ICEV- Gasoline
Well
-
to
-
Wheels Greenhouse Gas Emissions
(life cycle emissions, based on a projected state of the technol
ogies in 2020)
Conventional
Vehicles
Hybrid
Electric
Vehicles
Plug
-
in Hybrid
Electric Vehicles
(40
-
mile all
-
electric range)
Fuel Cell
Vehicles
Gasoline
Natural Gas
Gasoline
Diesel
Corn Ethanol

E85
Cellulosic Ethanol

E85
Gasoline
Cellulosic Ethanol

E85
H
2
from Distributed Natural Gas
H
2
from Coal w/Sequestration
H
2
from Biomass Gasification
H
2
from Central Wind Electrolysis
H
2
from Nuclear High
-
Temp Electrolysis
410
320
250
220
190
<65*
240
<150*
200
<110*
<55*
<40*
50
100
200
300
400
Grams of CO
2
-
equivalent per mile
540
*Net emissions from these pathways will be lower if these figure
s are adjusted to include:

The displacement of emissions from grid power

generation that
will
occur when surplus electricity is co
-
produced with cellulosic ethanol

The displacement of emissions from grid power

generation that
may
occur if electricity is co
-
produced with hydrogen in the biomass and
coal pathways, and if surplus wind power is generated in the win
d
-
to
-
hydrogen pathway

Carbon dioxide sequestration in the biomass
-
to
-
hydrogen process
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
FCV - C. Wind
FCV - Nuke
FCV - C. Biomass
FCV - Coal w/ sequest.
FCV - Natural Gas
PHEV - 40 - E85 (cell)
PHEV - 40 - Gasoline
HEV - Cellulosic E90
HEV - Corn E90
HEV - Diesel
HEV - Gasoline
ICEV- Natural Gas
ICEV- Gasoline
Well
-
to
-
Wheels Petroleum Energy Use
(based on a projected state of the technologies in 2020)
Conventional
Vehicles
Hybrid
Electric
Vehicles
Plug
-
in Hybrid
Electric Vehicles
(40
-
mile all
-
electric range)
Fuel Cell
Vehicles
Gasoline
Natural Gas
Gasoline
Diesel
Corn Ethanol

E85
Cellulosic Ethanol

E85
Gasoline
Cellulosic Ethanol

E85
H
2
from Distributed Natural Gas
H
2
from Coal w/Sequestration
H
2
from Biomass Gasification
H
2
from Central Wind Electrolysis
Btu per mile
4550
25
2710
2370
850
860
1530
530
30
25
95
45
15
2000
3000
4000
1000
5000
Today

s
Gasoline
Vehicle
6070
H
2
from Nuclear High
-
Temp Electrolysis
Source: US DoE 2010

Vehicle lifetime emissions for various fuels


Source: Ricardo analysis for LowCVP, August 2011

Houses


the long
-
term problem

One of the worst


Policies for household energy efficiency


Carbon Emissions Reduction Target (CERT)


Building Regulations


High standards for replacement boilers (86%) and
glazing (2 W/m
2
/K)


Improvements in new build of 20% in 2002 and
2006


Proposal to move to zero carbon new homes in
2016


EU appliance standards and labelling


Government funding of heating and insulation in
low income households


Energy Performance Certificates


Energy rating of
all buildings at the point of sale or rent


Energy Saving Trust Advice and information
programmes

Progress towards 80%...energy efficiency
predictions: 2001 English housing stock

0

10

20

30

40

0

20

40

60

80

100

Appliance (cooking, lights and appliances) CO
2

emissions (MTCO
2
)

Heating CO
2

emissions
(MTCO
2
)

0% reduction

20%

40%

60%

80%

Existing 2001 English housing
stock (123 MTCO
2
)

+100% solid wall insulation

+100% cavity wall insulation

+100% gas boilers as condensing

+100% triple glazing

+100% 0.5 ach ventilation rate

+100% 300mm loft insulation

+100% water heating interventions

+100% low
energy cold
appliances

+100% low
standby
power
appliances

+100%
low
energy
lights

-
Based on 1971 to 2000 average climate data. Source: CaRB project, Carbon Vision Partnership, funded
by EPSRC

APPLIANCE
INTERVENTIONS

HEATING
INTERVENTIONS

Source: Prof Dennis Loveday, Loughborough University

58

Recent progress: Hard data from recent
times projected forward


1990
#
:

154MtCO
2

equivalent from housing




35% of energy saving interventions installed*



2005
#
:

147MtCO
2

equivalent from housing




65% of energy saving interventions installed*


2020


114MtCO
2
, HMG’s
target
for housing



Must achieve
net
savings at
six

times

rate of recent history.



4% savings net of many factors


At most a 20% further reduction via 100% reach of * above.



# Measured data, incontrovertible


* 3” loft insulation, >60% window double glazed, >60% rooms draught proofed, cavity
wall insulation to modern standards

Source: Prof Mike Kelly, CLG

To conclude

“… nothing short of the biggest peacetime
programme of change ever seen …”


Politicians are setting world
-
changing
targets


To meet them will need innovation on an
equivalent scale from the engineering
(and finance) professions

UK Energy Research Centre

+44 (0)20 7594 1574

www.ukerc.ac.uk


Smart Grid Value





Smart Grid value from the

perspective of industry incumbents











Smart Grid value
from the
perspective of new
industry players









Smart Grid value
from the perspective
of consumers







Smart Grid value from
the perspective of
third parties







The Smart Grid will
accommodate
in a cost effective way the new
inflexible and intermittent forms of
generation.



It

will
also
provide a network more
capable of coping with physical
outages and extreme events,



The Smart Grid can
utilise

network
assets in a more efficient
manner.



Significant
and
Sustainable
business
opportunity.




Consumers
will be
able to directly
participate in the
electricity market.






Smart
Grids will be
able to
accommodate high
penetrations of
electric vehicles and
heating systems.



Low Carbon London


London is critical to the UK economy



London has the highest CO
2

emissions in
the UK.



The city has a distribution network which is
very close to capacity, and expensive to
reinforce.



The city has a 25% target for decentralised
energy generation by 2025



London wants to install 25,000 EV charging
points by 2015.


Low Carbon London Objectives


Community and Customer engagement


Implementing community engagement and encouraging energy usage behaviour
change


Retrofitting homes, public buildings and local businesses with low carbon / energy
efficiency measures



Smart Meters and ToU tariffs


Installing 5,000 smart meters across 10 districts of London


Enabling more flexible tariffs for customers


Encouraging energy efficiency


More closely matching demand to low carbon generation production


Enabling customers to reduce energy bills through demand side management




Active Network Management for Embedded Generation


Focusing on embedded generators that can control exports, power factor and can
provide active network support.



Low Carbon London Objectives


Responsive Demand


Focusing on Industrial & Commercial customers with flexible demand


esp.


air cooling load


industrial scale refrigeration


supermarket lighting


standby generation


Utilising these sources of flexible demand for peak load shifting


This has the potential to defer the need for physical network reinforcement.



Disseminating Results through a Learning Laboratory


Capturing the learning gained from the project trials


Demonstrating how each solution improves the capability of the distribution
network


Website to enable easy remote access to results


Providing both a real and virtual learning centre for others to access and learn from
the project


Illustrative economy
-
wide scenario
for
renewable energy

Update to have just
total energy
consumption (3 bars?)

40%
35%
11%
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2009
2020
2030
TWh
Non renewable
RES
-
transport
RES
-
heat
RES
-
power
Up to 45% depending on cost
reductions and limitations on low
-
carbon alternatives

15%

3%

30%

30%

12%

8%*

* 2020 ambition still meets 2020 transport sub
-
target of 10% given accounting rules

Costs to 2020


~2p/kWh on electricity
price (£50 for average
household)


~£2bn fiscal support for
heat