Washington State Energy

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Washington State Energy

Past / Present / Future

Tim Stearns

Senior Energy Policy Specialist

Washington State Department
of
Commerce

Tim.Stearns@Commerce.WA.gov

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people

cost

secure

sustainable

pollution

portability

reliability

3

Energy

Environment

Economy


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“…
Americans generally won't acknowledge conflicts and make choices.
The cry is for low prices, ample supplies, absolute reliability, clean air, no
disfiguring construction projects, local autonomy and national accountability.
Great. Unfortunately, there are tensions among all these goals.”


Paul Samuelson, Washington Post, August 20, 2003


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Washington State’s Energy Profile

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Washington’s emerging challenges

•
State grows 130,000 people per year

•
1.3 million per decade
–

double < 50 yr

•
273 to house, feed, employ, transport,
educate…

•
300 new megawatts per year

•
Can we double system in 50 years?

•
No new dams sites
–

15,000 miles lines

•
New subdivision
–

apartment

•
Car culture
–

walkable

communities?


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Expenditures on Fossil Fuels


Washington State: 1999
-
2008

1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Billions of dollars per year
Year
Fossil fuels, constant 2008 dollars
Fossil fuel expenditures as % GSP
Excludes fuel taxes, refinery and pipeline costs and profits


Sources: EIA, BEA and Sightline


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•
Today

•
11 million people

•
Largest
hydrosystem


•
Fossil fuel
transportation

•
imported

•
Car based

•
Plenty of inefficiency

•
Centralized generation

•
Future

•
20 + million

•
Integrated system

•
Clean fuel


•
Locally produced

•
Transit and vehicles

•
Zero energy buildings

•
distributed

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Energy is a Big Part of “Green”
Jobs

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people

heat

light

cooking

manufacturing

transportation

information

The Science of Climate Change
is Very Strong

“Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures

since the mid
-
20th century is very likely due to the

observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.”

Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
2007 Synthesis Report

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Electricity
Consumption, 18.9

19.9%

Residential,
Commercial &
Industrial, 19.4


20.5 %

Transportation,
44.5

46.9%

Fossil Fuel, 0.9
0.9%

Industrial
Processes, 3.3

3.5
%

Waste
Management 2.4

2.5 %

Agriculture, 5.4

5.7%

WA Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2005)

Total = 94.8 million metric tons CO2
-
equivalent

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State Targets
-

Reduce Emissions

Grow Our Economy

By 2020

reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels


By 2035

reduce emissions to 25% below 1990 levels


By 2050

reduce emissions to 50% below 1990 levels


By
2020

increase the number of clean energy sector jobs
to
25,000



from
the 8,400 jobs in 2004


By 2020

reduce expenditures by 20% on fuel imported
into
the state

Efficiency


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“Six Americas”
—
six groups or “publics
”

beliefs, attitudes, risk perceptions, motivations, values,
policy preferences, behaviors and barriers to action

1.
Alarmed
—
16 percent of Americans
—
are eager to get on
with solutions

2. Concerned
—
29
percent
—
know climate change is
happening, human caused and serious, but they don’t
necessarily see the urgency.
3. Cautious
—
25 percent
—
happening natural
or human
-
caused.

4.
Disengaged
—
8
percent
—
have heard of global warming but
don’t know

5. Doubtful
—
13
percent
—
don’t think it’s happening,
or natural
.

6.
Dismissive
—
8
percent
—
convinced
not
happening
,
hoax
or
a plot
.

Listen

-

values
-

motivations common
ground.


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Energy efficiency always
should be America’s highest
-
priority energy resource.

Cheap

clean

reliable

secure


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Energy Consumption per Dollar of Gross State Product
(1990-2003)
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Index, 2000=1
SIC Definitions
NIACS Definitions
Source: EIA SEDS, US BEA, CEA
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Energy Consumption Per Capita (1970-2003)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Million Btu per Capita
WA
US
WA - resid
Source: EIA SEDS, WA OFM
Conservation is Cost
-
effective Under
Many Different Future Scenarios

0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
$0-$100
Carbon
Current
Policy
No Climate
Policy
No RPS
Retire Coal
$100
Carbon
$20
Carbon
$0-$50
Carbon
Dam
Romoval
Average Megawatts

Source: NW Power and Conservation Council
-

Draft 6
th

Plan

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Renewable Energy

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Washington’s First Renewable
“Revolution”

•
Much of WA Post WWII Economy Tied to
Inexpensive Renewable Electricity

–
Aluminum Industry

–
Defense Industry

–
Forest Products, Chemical

–
Rural Electrification



CA:

33% by 2020

Renewable Portfolio Standards

State renewable portfolio standard

State renewable portfolio goal

www.dsireusa.org

/ October 2009

Solar water heating eligible

*

†

Extra credit for solar or customer
-
sited renewables

Includes non
-
renewable alternative resources

WA:
15% by 2020*

☼

NV
: 25% by 2025*

☼

AZ:
15% by 2025


☼

NM:
20% by 2020

(IOUs)


10% by 2020 (co
-
ops)


HI:
40% by 2030

☼


Minimum solar or customer
-
sited requirement


TX:
5,880 MW by 2015


UT: 20% by 2025*

☼

CO:
20% by 2020

(IOUs)

10% by 2020 (co
-
ops & large munis)*

MT:
15% by 2015


ND: 10% by 2015


SD: 10% by 2015


IA:
105 MW

MN:
25% by 2025

(Xcel: 30% by 2020)

☼

MO: 15
% by 2021

WI
: Varies by utility;

10% by 2015 goal

MI:

10% + 1,100 MW
by 2015*

☼

OH
: 25% by 2025
†

ME:
30% by 2000

New RE: 10% by 2017

☼

NH:
23.8% by 2025

☼

MA:
15% by 2020

+

1% annual increase

(Class I Renewables)

RI:
16% by 2020

CT:
23% by 2020

☼

NY:
24% by 2013

☼

NJ:
22.5% by 2021

☼

PA:
18% by 2020
†

☼

MD:
20% by 2022

☼

DE:
20% by 2019*

☼

DC:
20% by 2020

VA: 15% by 2025*

☼

NC
: 12.5% by 2021

(IOUs)

10% by 2018 (co
-
ops & munis)

VT: (1) RE meets any increase
in retail sales by 2012;


(2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017

29 states
& DC


have an RPS

6 states have goals


KS:
20% by 2020

☼

OR
: 25% by 2025

(large utilities
)*

5%
-

10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)

☼

IL:
25% by 2025


WV: 25% by 2025*
†

We’re Number 4!

Source : American Wind Energy Assoc. (12.31.09)

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Resource Costs: Long Term

0
50
100
150
200
250
Levelized Life
-
cycle Cost ($2006/MWhr)

Emissions
Transmission & Losses
Integration
Plant Cost
Source: NW Power and Conservation Council
–

Draft 6
th

Plan

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Initiative 937
–

Energy
Independence Act

•
Sets the Policy Framework for Utility
Development of Renewable Electricity

•
3% of Total Load by 2009

•
9% by 2012

•
15% by 2020

•
State’s large electric utilities must develop
conservation plans to acquire
all cost effective
conservation

•
First plan must be completed by Jan. 1, 2010
and set targets for 2010
-
2012 biennium



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Bioenergy Development



•
Biodiesel Facilities

•
Anaerobic Digesters

•
Research on Alternative Feedstocks

•
Bioenergy

•
Biomass CHP

Not in My Backyard ! !

•
I

Gregoire approves wind
-
power project

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Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics

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"In preparing for battle, I have always
found that plans are useless, but
planning is indispensable."

–
General Dwight D. Eisenhower

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A successful state energy
strategy

balance goals to:

•
Maintain competitive energy prices

•
Increase competitiveness

•
Meet the state's
enivronmental

goals

•
Be sustainable


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1.
Policy

2.
Mandates
-

create
markets

3.
Tax incentives

4.
regulation

5.
Leverage partners

a.
Private sector

b.
Federal government


Framework for success
-

alignment

Clean Energy Leadership Council


•
Advisory group of clean energy industry leaders

•
Charged
–

How does the state build its clean energy
industry?

•
Four major opportunity areas

–
Smart Grid

–
Energy Efficiency

–
“Green” building and the built environment

–
Sustainable biomass, biofuels,
Bioproducts

•
Major study by Navigant Consulting
–

Fall ‘10


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
Align Core Mission


Grow and improve
jobs in Washington



Align Policies and
Execution


Policy and
Innovation Unit within
Commerce


“Sector Lead”

Major State Energy Programs (ARRA)

•
Low
-
Income Weatherization
$59 million

•
State Energy Program (SEP
)

$60 million

–
$38.5 million for Loan and Grant

–
$14. 5 neighborhood Energy Efficiency

–
$5 million credit enhancement for energy efficiency

–
$500k for farm efficiency tools

•
State and Local Energy Efficiency and
Conservation Block Grants
$56 million

–
Most directly to large local government and tribes

–
$6.4 million to small cities and counties

–
Transportation planning grants

–
Resource Conservation Manager grants



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Major State Energy Programs (ARRA)

•
State and Local Block EE Block Grant
Competitive

–

$390 million to 8 to 20 district energy efficiency projects

–
5 to 1 leverage

–
Large cities, counties, tribes, state

–
Residential and commercial sector energy efficiency

–
Also $ 63 million to small cities/counties for energy
efficiency

•
Appliance Rebate Program
$6.2 million

•
Energy Assurance
$810,000

•
Utility Commission Assistance
$900,000


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What’s on the Horizon?

1.
Will natural gas have a new (old) role?

2.
Have high gasoline prices (and the recession)
permanently altered demand?

4.
When will be have a price on carbon
? Can we
massively increase investment in efficiency?

5.
What are the next big technological breakthroughs?

–

Electric vehicles

–
Next generation biofuels

–
Inexpensive
photovoltaics

–
Zero energy buildings



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-
$ Savings


-
New services


-
Reliability


-
Security


-
Efficiency


-
Environment


-
Safety



Smart Energy

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Key Trends/Observations
-

Energy

•
Building Energy Efficiency

–
Largely driven by building codes and appliance standards

–
Moving toward more efficient building with generation included

–
Best building practices integrate envelope,
hvac
, lighting and occupants

–
Efficiency activity driven by utility rebates, programs and public investment


•
Transportation Electrification

–
Washington State is involved in one of the largest demonstration of electric
vehicles, charging infrastructure, energy storage (batteries)

–
Key challenge will be integrating with the existing electric system

–
Creating opportunities in Software, Composites, Smart Grid


•

Wind Energy

–
State is working with companies to capture more of the wind value chain
–

spare
parts, operations, maintenance and training

–
East central, Southeast and the Gorge continue to draw development.

–
Diverse partners coming together for the world’s largest wind tradeshow.

–
Manufacturers attempting to apply excess capacity to this new sector

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•
Smart Grid

–
Region involved in the largest smart grid demonstration project

–
Grid investments will be key to integrating renewable energy


•
Biofuels /
bioeconomy


–
Significant aviation biofuel project to fulfill 15% of
Seatac’s

usage

–
Public fleets expanding use; nearing 20% on
-
road use in
western WA


•
State Energy /Strategy / Clean Energy Leadership Council

–
Analyzing all fuels and sectors

–
Retain hydro power advantage
–

clean & cost
-
effective

–
Innovate new technologies and approaches

–
Build on the region’s strength


Reinvent fire

•
Produce

•
Transmit

•
Use


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Contact

Tim Stearns

Senior Energy Policy Specialist

Washington State Department of Commerce

Tim.Stearns@Commerce.WA.gov

206
-
256
-
6121


www.commerce.wa.gov/energy

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