1
Washington State Energy
Past / Present / Future
Tim Stearns
Senior Energy Policy Specialist
Washington State Department
of
Commerce
Tim.Stearns@Commerce.WA.gov
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people
cost
secure
sustainable
pollution
portability
reliability
3
Energy
Environment
Economy
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“…
Americans generally won't acknowledge conflicts and make choices.
The cry is for low prices, ample supplies, absolute reliability, clean air, no
disfiguring construction projects, local autonomy and national accountability.
Great. Unfortunately, there are tensions among all these goals.”
Paul Samuelson, Washington Post, August 20, 2003
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Washington State’s Energy Profile
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Washington’s emerging challenges
•
State grows 130,000 people per year
•
1.3 million per decade
–
double < 50 yr
•
273 to house, feed, employ, transport,
educate…
•
300 new megawatts per year
•
Can we double system in 50 years?
•
No new dams sites
–
15,000 miles lines
•
New subdivision
–
apartment
•
Car culture
–
walkable
communities?
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Expenditures on Fossil Fuels
Washington State: 1999
-
2008
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Billions of dollars per year
Year
Fossil fuels, constant 2008 dollars
Fossil fuel expenditures as % GSP
Excludes fuel taxes, refinery and pipeline costs and profits
Sources: EIA, BEA and Sightline
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•
Today
•
11 million people
•
Largest
hydrosystem
•
Fossil fuel
transportation
•
imported
•
Car based
•
Plenty of inefficiency
•
Centralized generation
•
Future
•
20 + million
•
Integrated system
•
Clean fuel
•
Locally produced
•
Transit and vehicles
•
Zero energy buildings
•
distributed
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Energy is a Big Part of “Green”
Jobs
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people
heat
light
cooking
manufacturing
transportation
information
The Science of Climate Change
is Very Strong
“Most of the observed increase in global average
temperatures
since the mid
-
20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.”
Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
2007 Synthesis Report
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Electricity
Consumption, 18.9
19.9%
Residential,
Commercial &
Industrial, 19.4
20.5 %
Transportation,
44.5
46.9%
Fossil Fuel, 0.9
0.9%
Industrial
Processes, 3.3
3.5
%
Waste
Management 2.4
2.5 %
Agriculture, 5.4
5.7%
WA Greenhouse Gas Emissions (2005)
Total = 94.8 million metric tons CO2
-
equivalent
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State Targets
-
Reduce Emissions
Grow Our Economy
By 2020
reduce GHG emissions to 1990 levels
By 2035
reduce emissions to 25% below 1990 levels
By 2050
reduce emissions to 50% below 1990 levels
By
2020
increase the number of clean energy sector jobs
to
25,000
from
the 8,400 jobs in 2004
By 2020
reduce expenditures by 20% on fuel imported
into
the state
Efficiency
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“Six Americas”
—
six groups or “publics
”
beliefs, attitudes, risk perceptions, motivations, values,
policy preferences, behaviors and barriers to action
1.
Alarmed
—
16 percent of Americans
—
are eager to get on
with solutions
2. Concerned
—
29
percent
—
know climate change is
happening, human caused and serious, but they don’t
necessarily see the urgency.
3. Cautious
—
25 percent
—
happening natural
or human
-
caused.
4.
Disengaged
—
8
percent
—
have heard of global warming but
don’t know
5. Doubtful
—
13
percent
—
don’t think it’s happening,
or natural
.
6.
Dismissive
—
8
percent
—
convinced
not
happening
,
hoax
or
a plot
.
Listen
-
values
-
motivations common
ground.
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Energy efficiency always
should be America’s highest
-
priority energy resource.
Cheap
clean
reliable
secure
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Energy Consumption per Dollar of Gross State Product
(1990-2003)
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Index, 2000=1
SIC Definitions
NIACS Definitions
Source: EIA SEDS, US BEA, CEA
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Energy Consumption Per Capita (1970-2003)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Million Btu per Capita
WA
US
WA - resid
Source: EIA SEDS, WA OFM
Conservation is Cost
-
effective Under
Many Different Future Scenarios
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
$0-$100
Carbon
Current
Policy
No Climate
Policy
No RPS
Retire Coal
$100
Carbon
$20
Carbon
$0-$50
Carbon
Dam
Romoval
Average Megawatts
Source: NW Power and Conservation Council
-
Draft 6
th
Plan
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Renewable Energy
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Washington’s First Renewable
“Revolution”
•
Much of WA Post WWII Economy Tied to
Inexpensive Renewable Electricity
–
Aluminum Industry
–
Defense Industry
–
Forest Products, Chemical
–
Rural Electrification
CA:
33% by 2020
Renewable Portfolio Standards
State renewable portfolio standard
State renewable portfolio goal
www.dsireusa.org
/ October 2009
Solar water heating eligible
*
†
Extra credit for solar or customer
-
sited renewables
Includes non
-
renewable alternative resources
WA:
15% by 2020*
☼
NV
: 25% by 2025*
☼
AZ:
15% by 2025
☼
NM:
20% by 2020
(IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co
-
ops)
HI:
40% by 2030
☼
Minimum solar or customer
-
sited requirement
TX:
5,880 MW by 2015
UT: 20% by 2025*
☼
CO:
20% by 2020
(IOUs)
10% by 2020 (co
-
ops & large munis)*
MT:
15% by 2015
ND: 10% by 2015
SD: 10% by 2015
IA:
105 MW
MN:
25% by 2025
(Xcel: 30% by 2020)
☼
MO: 15
% by 2021
WI
: Varies by utility;
10% by 2015 goal
MI:
10% + 1,100 MW
by 2015*
☼
OH
: 25% by 2025
†
ME:
30% by 2000
New RE: 10% by 2017
☼
NH:
23.8% by 2025
☼
MA:
15% by 2020
+
1% annual increase
(Class I Renewables)
RI:
16% by 2020
CT:
23% by 2020
☼
NY:
24% by 2013
☼
NJ:
22.5% by 2021
☼
PA:
18% by 2020
†
☼
MD:
20% by 2022
☼
DE:
20% by 2019*
☼
DC:
20% by 2020
VA: 15% by 2025*
☼
NC
: 12.5% by 2021
(IOUs)
10% by 2018 (co
-
ops & munis)
VT: (1) RE meets any increase
in retail sales by 2012;
(2) 20% RE & CHP by 2017
29 states
& DC
have an RPS
6 states have goals
KS:
20% by 2020
☼
OR
: 25% by 2025
(large utilities
)*
5%
-
10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)
☼
IL:
25% by 2025
WV: 25% by 2025*
†
We’re Number 4!
Source : American Wind Energy Assoc. (12.31.09)
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Resource Costs: Long Term
0
50
100
150
200
250
Levelized Life
-
cycle Cost ($2006/MWhr)
Emissions
Transmission & Losses
Integration
Plant Cost
Source: NW Power and Conservation Council
–
Draft 6
th
Plan
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Initiative 937
–
Energy
Independence Act
•
Sets the Policy Framework for Utility
Development of Renewable Electricity
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3% of Total Load by 2009
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9% by 2012
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15% by 2020
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State’s large electric utilities must develop
conservation plans to acquire
all cost effective
conservation
•
First plan must be completed by Jan. 1, 2010
and set targets for 2010
-
2012 biennium
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Bioenergy Development
•
Biodiesel Facilities
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Anaerobic Digesters
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Research on Alternative Feedstocks
•
Bioenergy
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Biomass CHP
Not in My Backyard ! !
•
I
Gregoire approves wind
-
power project
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Lies, Damn Lies & Statistics
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"In preparing for battle, I have always
found that plans are useless, but
planning is indispensable."
–
General Dwight D. Eisenhower
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A successful state energy
strategy
balance goals to:
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Maintain competitive energy prices
•
Increase competitiveness
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Meet the state's
enivronmental
goals
•
Be sustainable
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1.
Policy
2.
Mandates
-
create
markets
3.
Tax incentives
4.
regulation
5.
Leverage partners
a.
Private sector
b.
Federal government
Framework for success
-
alignment
Clean Energy Leadership Council
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Advisory group of clean energy industry leaders
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Charged
–
How does the state build its clean energy
industry?
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Four major opportunity areas
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Smart Grid
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Energy Efficiency
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“Green” building and the built environment
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Sustainable biomass, biofuels,
Bioproducts
•
Major study by Navigant Consulting
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Fall ‘10
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Align Core Mission
Grow and improve
jobs in Washington
Align Policies and
Execution
Policy and
Innovation Unit within
Commerce
“Sector Lead”
Major State Energy Programs (ARRA)
•
Low
-
Income Weatherization
$59 million
•
State Energy Program (SEP
)
$60 million
–
$38.5 million for Loan and Grant
–
$14. 5 neighborhood Energy Efficiency
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$5 million credit enhancement for energy efficiency
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$500k for farm efficiency tools
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State and Local Energy Efficiency and
Conservation Block Grants
$56 million
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Most directly to large local government and tribes
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$6.4 million to small cities and counties
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Transportation planning grants
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Resource Conservation Manager grants
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Major State Energy Programs (ARRA)
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State and Local Block EE Block Grant
Competitive
–
$390 million to 8 to 20 district energy efficiency projects
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5 to 1 leverage
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Large cities, counties, tribes, state
–
Residential and commercial sector energy efficiency
–
Also $ 63 million to small cities/counties for energy
efficiency
•
Appliance Rebate Program
$6.2 million
•
Energy Assurance
$810,000
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Utility Commission Assistance
$900,000
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What’s on the Horizon?
1.
Will natural gas have a new (old) role?
2.
Have high gasoline prices (and the recession)
permanently altered demand?
4.
When will be have a price on carbon
? Can we
massively increase investment in efficiency?
5.
What are the next big technological breakthroughs?
–
Electric vehicles
–
Next generation biofuels
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Inexpensive
photovoltaics
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Zero energy buildings
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-
$ Savings
-
New services
-
Reliability
-
Security
-
Efficiency
-
Environment
-
Safety
Smart Energy
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Key Trends/Observations
-
Energy
•
Building Energy Efficiency
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Largely driven by building codes and appliance standards
–
Moving toward more efficient building with generation included
–
Best building practices integrate envelope,
hvac
, lighting and occupants
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Efficiency activity driven by utility rebates, programs and public investment
•
Transportation Electrification
–
Washington State is involved in one of the largest demonstration of electric
vehicles, charging infrastructure, energy storage (batteries)
–
Key challenge will be integrating with the existing electric system
–
Creating opportunities in Software, Composites, Smart Grid
•
Wind Energy
–
State is working with companies to capture more of the wind value chain
–
spare
parts, operations, maintenance and training
–
East central, Southeast and the Gorge continue to draw development.
–
Diverse partners coming together for the world’s largest wind tradeshow.
–
Manufacturers attempting to apply excess capacity to this new sector
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•
Smart Grid
–
Region involved in the largest smart grid demonstration project
–
Grid investments will be key to integrating renewable energy
•
Biofuels /
bioeconomy
–
Significant aviation biofuel project to fulfill 15% of
Seatac’s
usage
–
Public fleets expanding use; nearing 20% on
-
road use in
western WA
•
State Energy /Strategy / Clean Energy Leadership Council
–
Analyzing all fuels and sectors
–
Retain hydro power advantage
–
clean & cost
-
effective
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Innovate new technologies and approaches
–
Build on the region’s strength
Reinvent fire
•
Produce
•
Transmit
•
Use
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Contact
Tim Stearns
Senior Energy Policy Specialist
Washington State Department of Commerce
Tim.Stearns@Commerce.WA.gov
206
-
256
-
6121
www.commerce.wa.gov/energy
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