Opportunities to Apply the NACP Multi-

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Nov 30, 2013 (3 years and 11 months ago)

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Global Forest Carbon Monitoring:
Opportunities to Apply the NACP Multi
-
tier Approach to UNFCCC Reporting and
REDD Requirements

Richard Birdsey,
Yude

Pan, Werner
Kurz
,

Craig
Wayson
, Gregorio Angeles
-
Perez


Includes contributions from

Ben
DeJong
, Jing Chen, and
Fangmin

Zhang



North American Carbon Program

All
-
Investigator Meeting

New
O
rleans, Louisiana

3 February, 2011

Overview


NACP multi
-
tier land monitoring approach


UNFCCC GHG inventory reporting by Canada,
U.S., and Mexico


REDD requirements, data needs, and
approaches


What next for NACP multi
-
tier approach?

NACP Hierarchical
Land Surface Measurement
Program (from NACP Science Plan)


Tier One



Remote Sensing and Mapping


Wall
-
to
-
wall coverage; stratification


Temporal resolution = high or low


Tier Two



Extensive Inventories and Surveys


Representative regional statistical sample


Temporal resolution = low


Tier Three


Condition Sample (
new
)


Representative of specified condition classes


Temporal resolution = medium


Tier Four


Intensive Areas



Relatively small number of specific sites


Temporal resolution = high



Multi
-
tier Sampling, Past and Present

Graphic from Steve Running circa 2001

The “Multi
-
tier” Inventory Approach: Extensive
Observations Linked to Intensive Studies


Remote sensing and
mapping (T1)



Network of national
inventory sample plots (T2)



Intensive measurement
sites (T3 and T4)


All tied together with
ecosystem and accounting
models


Graphic from Warren Cohen (maybe)

Selected
Land Variables
and
Measurement
Methods


Variable

Remote
Sensing

(T1)

Land
Inventory
(T2)

Intensive
Sites

(T3 & T4)

Land cover

X

X

X

Leaf area

X

X

X

Disturbance

X

X

X

Live biomass

X

X

Stand structure

X

X

Species composition

X

X

Growth, removals, mortality

X

X

Litter fall

X

Soil CO
2

flux

X

Runoff

X

Dissolved Organic C

X

Net Ecosystem Exchange of CO
2

X

UNFCCC Reporting


Canada, the U.S.A., and Mexico all report
greenhouse gas inventories following standard
IPCC methodologies and reporting requirements
(Mexico reports are voluntary).


Despite rather different national circumstances,
reported estimates are reasonably consistent.


The 3 countries collaborate on methods
development and application, share data to
improve estimates, and produce joint reports
(e.g., SOCCR).

Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector
(CBM
-
CFS3)


An operational
-
scale model of stand and landscape
-
level forest C
dynamics.


Allows forest managers to assess carbon implications of forest
management: increase sinks, reduce sources


Used at National scale for
reporting to UNFCCC


Freely available at:
carbon.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca


Kurz et al. 2009, Ecol. Modelling

Carbon Budget Model of Canadian Forest Sector

(CBM
-
CFS3)

Land
-
use change data

Forest inventory and growth & yield data

Natural disturbance monitoring data

Forest management activity data

Ecological modelling parameters

CBM
-
CFS3

Kurz et al. 2009, Ecol. Modelling

CBM
-
CFS3 General
Approach and Results

Stratification of forest into classes

Relies
heavily on existing forest inventory information

Input data from forest inventories (or remote sensing)

Empirical representation of growth dynamics at the stand level.

Dead Organic Matter Dynamics linked to Biomass

Process
modelling

of
litterfall
, mortality, disturbance impacts
and decomposition to estimate DOM pools

Simulates natural disturbances, forest management and land
-
use
change

Input data from forest monitoring including remote sensing

-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
Mt CO2e / yr
0.0
0.3
0.6
0.9
1.2
1.5
1.8
2.1
2.4
Area Burned (Mha)
Increasing impact of insects in
recent years

Stinson et al. 2011

Forest Inventory Approach,
Basis for GHG Reporting (USA)

Tier 2



Field
inventory

State of
Minnesota

Condition B =
Nonforest Land Use
Condition A =
Forest Land Use
Old 1/5-acre plot
FIA Sample Plot

Tiers 3/4



subsample of
Tier 2 plus
intensive site
data

Tier I



Remote sensing

to stratify area

Some Results from
USA’s Forest
Greenhouse Gas
Inventory

Future USA GHG Inventory: High
-
resolution
Estimates with Full Attribution to Causes

NACP research applied to
partition effects of:



Climate variability



Atmospheric chemistry



Natural disturbances



Human actions

1930

2000

Pan et al. 2009

Zhang et al. submitted

Effects of climate variability, fire suppression,
and natural disturbance

Cumulative NEP

Evolving Methods for Mexico’s Greenhouse Gas
Inventory of Forests


The first two inventories used IPCC default emission
factors and FAO area statistics


The third inventory in 2006 was based on national
inventory data and some default emission factors


The fourth inventory in 2009 was based on the new
national inventory, land
-
cover change maps, and
some country specific emission factors


Future inventories will include all C pools and
analysis using CBM
-
CFS3



Adapted from Ben de
Jong

Mexico’s Land Inventory

Variable
-
density
field sampling
repeated every 5
years

Mexico’s
GHG

Emissions (2006)

16.3%

SEMARNAT
-
INE

(2009)

LULUCF

Tropical Forests, the Global Carbon Cycle, and REDD+


Tropical forests are the
most dynamic
terrestrial component of the global carbon
budget
(Global Carbon Project; FAO 2010; Pan et al. submitted)


55% of total global forest carbon stock


13% of total global CO
2

emissions (
net

emissions
from LUC)


68% of total global forest CO
2

removal from
atmosphere (
gross

C uptake)

Tropical Forests, the Global Carbon Cycle, and REDD+


Tropical forests are the
most dynamic
terrestrial component of the global carbon
budget
(Global Carbon Project; FAO 2010; Pan et al. submitted)


55% of total global forest carbon stock


13% of total global CO
2

emissions (
net

emissions
from LUC)


68% of total global forest CO
2

removal from
atmosphere (
gross

C uptake)

Data needs

Moderate

Very large

Huge!

REDD+ Monitoring and Modeling Requirements


REDD+ includes:


Reducing deforestation and forest degradation


Conservation of forest C stocks


Sustainable forest management/enhancement of C stocks


Many existing guidelines, for example:


IPCC “Good Practice Guidance” and special reports


GEO, GOFC
-
GOLD, FAO REDD
Programme


Flexibility needed to allow broad participation, but results
must be consistent


Credible baseline projections needed to establish
additionality
:



Example: reference level
= historical baseline

(From FAO Little REDD
book)

Monitoring

Modeling

Examples of NACP/
CarboNA

Technical Support
for REDD+ and Tropical Forest Monitoring


Canada:

working with Mexico and other
tropical countries to implement the CBM
-
CFS3
approach


U.S.A.:
working with Mexico and other
countries in forest inventory, remote sensing,
and intensive
-
site measurements


Mexico:
demonstrator country under GEO
-
FCT
and leading example of implementing
monitoring for REDD

U.S. and Mexico Conducting Pilot
Study for American Network of
Intensive Sites

Tropical
site
t.b.d
.

Measurements at Intensive
Monitoring Sites (Tiers 3 and 4)


Biometrics



measurements of C pools


Eddy flux towers


monitoring of C
exchange between land and atmosphere


Remote sensing


vegetation density and
change


Conclusions and Recommendations


“Best” approach to GHG inventory depends on
individual country circumstances and specific
reporting and accounting requirements


Different monitoring approaches may yield similar
results


combinations are often more efficient


REDD+ is here NOW


countries must demonstrate
readiness


Financing and improved technical capacity needed by
most tropical countries


The NACP and
CarboNA

could do
much more

to
improve analysis and reporting in all 3 countries and
elsewhere

Thanks!