Technology and BE - Yimg

twoeggfinnishBiotechnology

Dec 14, 2012 (4 years and 7 months ago)

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Technology and BE

Session
-
11&12

Waves of Innovation


Technology as substitute of inputs


Malthus theory ignored tech


Kondratiev and Schumpeter
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1782
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1845
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Steam power
and textile, 1845
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1892
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Railroad, iron coal
construction, 1892
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1948
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Electric power, automobiles,
chemicals and steel, !948
-
present
-
Semicunductor,
electronic aerospace, petro
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chemical and
pharmaceuticals etc.


Change is not gentle but like series of explosions.


Innovation industry lead the economy, pioneers
followed by imitators , crowed, and creative
destruction starts


new innovation is needed.

Alternatives


Saturation in industry and then export of jobs.


Technological Pessimists
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club of Rome
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1972


Tech optimists
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Kahn, Herman and Fuller



Pessimists
-

Extrapolated population, resources,
pollution, agriculture and industrial output to the end
of next century
-

interdependent model
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crisis can be
averted only if Zero population growth is achieved.


Criticism
-

data is not fully developed, based on non
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renewable resources, less space for tech development,
socio
-
psychological considerations are ignored, world is
treated as whole and not in political and economic
entities.

Continue


Technological Optimism
-

based on trend
extrapolation, scenario
-
writing and simple
intuition.


New crisis and unexpected events may divert
trend and alter expectations
-

following trend are
likely to occur
-

15
-
514.


Post industrial society
-
Bell
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Different from
industrial society in five ways
-

15
-
514
-
5.


May lead to socio
-
cultural strife and require
collective regulation


Criticize both pessimistic and optimistic views.


Continue


Guider extends Bell’s vision
-

powers of mind,
wealth in the form of ideas and tech


Chips where material cost of production
constitutes only 2%
-

main valuable part is idea
and design.

Tech Forecasting


25% of existing tech replaced every year.


So managers will have to cope with change through
trends, expert opinion and by creating alternative
scenario.


Trend is OK so long future resembles the past and
interaction


Experts
-

They too make mistakes
-

like Thomas Edition’s
lamp


Alternative scenario
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Immediate, middle range and
long range scenario
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like Shell Oil.


Information flow is immense manager must know to
select and use.

Next Wave of Innovation


Artificial intelligence, Genetic engineering,
bio
-
electricity, laser, robotics, digital
electronics, fiber optics, microwaves,
satellites, solar energy, superconductors etc.

Obstacle in adopting new tech


Difference between invention and innovation


Artificial Intelligence:
-

Performance disappointing
, many companies has closed down and sales
which are expected to be billion $ could not
exceed 600million.


Allow computer to mimic human being
-

as
alternative to human reasoning. Example
software expert system.


Problem with AI is that researchers lack sense of
market.

Continue


Genetic Engineering:
-

Sales are more than 1
billion $.


In spite of heavy research expenditure very few
drugs could become commercially successful.
Most still developing product in Lab.


So many regulators and guidelines unclear.


Monsanto
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BHG hormone a protein increase milk
yield


Monsanto herbicide and pesticide for cotton and
soybean. Pesticide resistance crop rather than
pest resistant.

Continue


Why Technologies fail;
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Because of so many
uncertainties are attached to new tech.


Role of customers, uncertain govt. support,
striving for constant innovation.


Tech push and market pull factors
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15
-
4


Japanese innovation style
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15
-
5