Global Issues and

tubacitychiropractorManagement

Nov 8, 2013 (3 years and 9 months ago)

73 views


Water Conflict:

Global Issues and
Cooperative Opportunities

Sandra Ruckstuhl, PhD

2010 Summer Teacher Institute

University of Chicago

29 June 2010

Structure of Presentation


CONF 695 Water and Conflict


Conflict Analysis and Resolution


Environmental Conflict


Water Conflict


Water and Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model


Cases


Conclusion

CONF 695: Water and Conflict


Integrate conflict theory, water concepts, and case
literature


Case study approach to highlight social and
environmental challenges and perspectives at different
levels


Critical thinking and internal debate


Guest speakers from the field


Student presentations


on cases, on research, on
policy proposals

Conflict Analysis and Resolution

Principles


Conflict studies =
analysis

and

resolution


Interdisciplinary

-

social psychology, international re,
development studies, cultural studies


Promotes critical thinking
about social relationships,
needs, aspirations and power between individuals and
groups


Conflict

is not necessarily bad (innovation)


Violence

is a negative manifestation of conflict


Cooperation

is an inherent opportunity in everything

Conflict Analysis and Resolution

Integrative Practice



PEACE
-

BUILDING

PREVENTIVE

ACTION

PEACEMAKING

Conflict Analysis and Resolution

Christopher Mitchell’s SPITCEROW Model


S = Sources


P = Parties


I = Issues and interests


T = Tactics


C = Changes


E = Enlargement


R = Roles


O = Outcomes


W = Winner

Conflict Analysis and Resolution

Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model


PILLAR 2

Conflict Conditions


Individual level

Societal level

International

level

Global/ecological level



PILLAR 1

Conflict Sources


Parties (violent)

Issues

Objectives

Means

Conflict
-
handling
orientations

Conflict environment



PILLAR 3

Conflict Resolution


Prevention

Management

Settlement

Resolution

Transformation


Environmental Conflict

What is it?


“Environmental conflict” boils down to
conflict (or “disputes”) over
environmental
resources.


Analysis = What is the nature of these disputes?

Resolution = How can we address them?

Environmental Conflict

What are the “resources”?



Conflict over
non
-
renewable

(finite) resources


Minerals (diamonds, oil, coltan)


Land (property rights)


Conflict over
renewable

resources


Forests and timber


Air


Water

Environmental Conflict

What are the dynamics?

Environmental Conflict

What are the dynamics?

The environment

(water resources included)

is neither a necessary nor
sufficient cause of

violent conflict

Environmental Conflict

What are the dynamics?


RELATIVE SCARCITY + POOR INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY
= POTENTIAL CONFLICT




Supply
-
, demand
-
, structurally driven scarcity leads to
conflict (Homer
-
Dixon 1999)


Demographic stress (environment + population) leads to
state failure/exploitation (Kahl 2002)


Differential power and differential impacts of environmental
degradation (Peluso and Watts 2001)

BUT if we think critically and creatively human
ingenuity can overcome…


Water Conflict


History demonstrates peace
and cooperation in managing
shared water resources.



But as the environment and
institutions change this pattern
could change too.

Water Conflict


Popular coverage of and rhetoric around
international
“water wars”


Indirect role in
intrastate
, rather than
interstate, violent conflict


Internal fragility associated with
inequity

of
water scarcity problems


Problems with
quality

and
quantity


Water Conflict



Environmental change
(including global
warming) means more water in some areas,
less water in others, and pollution worldwide


Environmental change can cause social stress
and lead to conflict if
institutions

cannot adjust
to those changes in a productive way

Water Conflict


Drought


Flood & inundation


Landslide


Desertification


Contamination


Epidemic & disease


Dispute, even conflict


Healthy people


Healthy ecosystems


Food production


Energy production


Navigation


Cultural Value


Cooperation

A source of destruction,
poverty & dispute

A source of production,
growth & cooperation

Conflict Analysis and Resolution

Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model


PILLAR 2

Conflict Conditions


Individual level

Societal level

International level

Global/ecological level



PILLAR 1

Conflict Sources


Parties (violent)

Issues

Objectives

Means

Conflict
-
handling
orientations

Conflict environment



PILLAR 3

Conflict Resolution


Prevention

Management

Settlement

Resolution

Transformation


Three Pillar Model

Conflict Sources: Parties

There are many different users of water:


Water for people (supply and sanitation)


Water for environment (ecosystems)


Water for food (irrigation)


Water for energy (hydropower)


Water for other purposes





(e.g., culture or religion)

They have different, sometimes competing needs.



Three Pillar Model

Conflict Sources: Parties


upstream vs. downstream


urban vs. rural


rich vs. poor


haves vs. have
-
nots


Three Pillar Model

Conflict Sources: Parties



Water resources (e.g., rivers, aquifers, lakes)
cross different kinds of jurisdictional lines


Interstate


Intrastate


Three Pillar Model

Conflict Sources: Issues

Relative scarcity + institutional capacity deficiencies = conflict


Ownership


Who has the
right

to it?


Consumption


How should it be
used
?


Distribution


Who has
access

and who does not?


Management


How should it be
governed
?



Three Pillar Model

Conflict Sources: Issues



Category

Type

Renewable natural
resource changes

Quality

Quantity

Temporal

Variability

Other physical
changes

Demographic

Infrastructure

Relational changes

Behavioral

Parties (individuals and groups)

Institutions

Power and influence

Conflict tactics

Eco
-
economic
changes

Value of and relationship to the resources

Three Pillar Model

Conflict Sources: Issues

Three Pillar Model

Conflict Sources: Issues

Three Pillar Model

Conflict Sources: Issues


Direct/indirect control over resources = power


Control over
supply

(domestic and industry)


Control over
food production

(domestic and export)


Control over
environment

(drought and flood)


Control over
health issues

(diseases)


Control over
energy production

(hydropower)

Three Pillar Model

Conflict Conditions: Individual/Societal

Water Scarcity 2025

Three Pillar Model

Conflict Conditions: Individual/Societal

Three Pillar Model

Conflict Conditions: Societal/International





Projected Population

Developing & Transition Countries (DTC) and OECD

Rapid urban
growth in
secondary
cities &
towns

Still many in
fragile rural
areas

Mega cities

Three Pillar Model

Conflict Conditions: International

More than 260 river basins with more than 2 countries…

Three Pillar Model

Conflict Conditions: International

Tensions longstanding and growing with demand…

Three Pillar Model

Conflict Conditions

Physical Effects of Climate Change


Increased variability, availability and access to resources


Changes in precipitation


Glacial melt


Reduced quality of land (erosion, contamination)


Increased desertification


Changes to crop seasons


Changes in biodiversity


Rising sea levels


Flooding coastal areas, including urban habitats and farmland


Disruption of aquatic habitats and fish populations


Natural disasters and extreme weather events (i.e. hurricanes, flash floods,
droughts, landslides, wild fires, spread of disease and pestilence)

Three Pillar Model

Conflict Conditions

Social Impacts of Climate Change



Loss of livelihoods


Economic shocks and instability


Food shortages and food insecurity


Human health impacts (e.g. disease)


Food insecurity


Trade relations


Migration



Political instability and state fragility


Spillover effects impacting neighboring areas


Inequitable impacts and social tensions


Three Pillar Model

Conflict Resolution


Conflict prevention
(early intervention/diplomacy)


Conflict management
(security operations and peacekeeping)


Conflict settlement
(coercive peacemaking)


Conflict resolution
(non
-
coercive peacemaking)


Conflict transformation
(social cohesion, resilience, capacity)


Three Pillar Model

Conflict Resolution

Building capacity to deal with conflict:

Organizations

(e.g., policy and official administrative structures)

and

Institutions

(e.g., norms, values, perceptions, behaviors, knowledge)


Three Pillar Model

Conflict Resolution

Environmental Peacebuilding

Capitalizes on ecological interdependencies to
promote social, economic, and political
relationships through joint environmental
management and benefit sharing


Opportunities both for prevention and
transformation are everywhere…


Cases

Nile River Basin

Cases

The Sahel Region

Cases

Yemen

Cases

Israel and the Palestinian Territories

Cases

The Dead Sea

Cases

Indus River Basin

THANK

YOU.