Scanning for Planning

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Feb 16, 2014 (3 years and 5 months ago)

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OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Scanning for Planning

Alane Wilson, MLIS, Senior Library Market Consultant


SLA 2006

Alane Wilson

Senior Library Market Consultant









OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Trend Spotting started here for OCLC

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Why Do this?


Western Union


Personal computer


Amazoogle, YaBay,


Skating where the puck will be


OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Traditional Planning


Extrapolates from the past/present


Focus is on industry situation


Solving current problems


No holistic view of external factors

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Futuring: 4 Questions


Can we predict the future?


Can we know the future?


Can we control the future?


Can we influence the future?


Sometimes

NO

NO

YES

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

The Four Types of Change

Continuous

Discontinuous

Trends

Aging

Economic growth

Events

Fall of Berlin Wall

September 11

Improvements

Market share

Fewer defects

Transformations

New leadership

New vision

Given

Chosen

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Prediction and Forecasting

Prediction


Physical evidence


Strong assumptions


Unitary phenomenon


Higher quality
inferences

Forecasting


Intangible evidence


Weak assumptions


Multiple possibilities


Lower quality
inferences

OCLC Online Computer Library Center



Short
-
term horizon

Long
-
term horizon


Single domain

Many domains


Few factors

Many factors


Focus on continuity

Focus on discontinuity


Hide uncertainty

Reveal uncertainty


Single forecast

Alternative forecasts


Quantitative techniques

Qualitative techniques

Traditional Forecasting Futures Forecasting

Forecasts
-

Two Approaches


OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Scenarios
enhance
creativity in
visioning

Scanning for trends

Identify key forces

Scenario matrix
narratives

Vision

Mission

Goals

Likely and alternative futures

Preferred Futures

Generation of new strategies

Evaluation of new and

existing strategies

Strategic priorities and
plan of action

Diagram from the Institute for Alternative Futures www.altfutures.com

Are strategies robust?
Do they work in most
or all scenarios?

Do strategies align
with vision, mission
and goals?

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

What is Environmental Scanning?


“Environmental scanning focuses on the
identification of emerging issues,
situations and potential pitfalls that may
affect an organization…in essence, it is a
method for identifying, collecting and
translating information

about external
influences into useful plans and
decisions.”

Kendra S Albright, “Environmental Scanning: Radar for Success.”
Information Management Journal,
38(3), May/June 2004.

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Content of an Environmental Scan


STEEP


Social, technological, environmental, economic, political
landscapes


PEST(LE)


Political, economic, social, technology (legislative,
environmental)


SETRLL


Social, economic, technology, research & learning, libraries


Whatever!

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Trend Spotting

It’s about observing, reading, musing,
synthesizing and understanding

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

The 3 Main Challenges


Management and corporate culture


They’re just not that into trends


Resources


Time, funds, attention


Understanding and applying trends


Thinking BIG and…so what?

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Management and corporate culture

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Resources


Too much, not enough,
too expensive, no time,
who cares I’m retiring…


OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Understanding and Applying Trends


Back to STEEP, PEST
and SETRLL


OCLC Online Computer Library Center

The Amazoogle*

Effect


Comprehensive


Accessible


Immediate


gratification


Market
-
of
-
One



*Coined by Lorcan Dempsey,

OCLC VP of Research

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

Why haven’t you ever used the online
library Web site?

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

…is the information you get from library sources
more or less trustworthy

than information you get
from search engines?

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OCLC Online Computer Library Center

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

OCLC Online Computer Library Center

OCLC Online Computer Library Center


The Internet of Things


“spimes” & “blogjets”


OCLC Online Computer Library Center

“I can’t understand
why people are
frightened of new
ideas.

I’m frightened of
the old ones
.”

John Cage