Energy in a changing climate

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Feb 16, 2014 (3 years and 6 months ago)

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ISF, UTS



Energy in a changing climate


Conservation Council of South Australia Summit


Dr Chris Riedy



5
th

February 2009

THINK.

CHANGE.

DO

INSTITUTE FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURES



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Introduction

“The debate on climate change
has shifted dramatically over
the past five years. The strong
evidence presented by the
scientific community through the
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC)
process has largely settled the
discussion about whether the
world needs to respond. The
question now is what shape
such a response should take”.

~ The McKinsey Global
Institute, 2008

Beinhocker, E., Oppenheim, J., Irons, B., Lahti, M., Farrell, D., Nyquist, S., et al. (2008).
The carbon productivity
challenge: Curbing climate change and sustaining economic growth
: McKinsey Global Institute.



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Climate scientists are stressing urgency

“Recent evidence reveals a situation more urgent than had been
expected, even by those who were most attuned...It will be
necessary to take actions that return CO2 to a level of at most 350
ppm
, but probably less, if we are to avert disastrous pressures on
fellow species and large sea level rise”.

~ Dr James E. Hansen, Director NASA Goddard Institute for Space
Studies, November 2008



We are on our way to a destabilisation of the world climate that
has advanced much further than most people or their governments
realise
”.

~ Hans Joachim
Schellnhuber
, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact
Research, December 2008





ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Arctic sea ice is disappearing

National Snow and Ice Data Center


“The Arctic is often cited as the canary in the coal mine for
climate warming. Now as a sign of climate warming, the canary
has died. It is time to start getting out of the coal mines”.
~ Dr Jay
Zwally, NASA



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Climate change in South Australia

>
Temperature


Up 0.96ºC, 1910
-
2005 (faster
than Australian average)


Up 0.2
-
1.8ºC by 2030


Up 0.5
-
5.5ºC by 2070

>
Rainfall


Up to 45% decrease in
coastal areas by 2070


25% increase to 45%
decrease inland

Suppiah, R., Preston, B., Whetton, P.H., McInnes, K.L., Jones, R.N., Macadam, I., Bathols, J. & Kirono, D. 2006,
Climate change under enhanced greenhouse conditions in South Australia. An updated report on: Assessment of
climate change, impacts and risk management strategies relevant to South Australia, Undertaken for the South
Australian Government by the Climate Impacts and Risk Group, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research,
Aspendale, Victoria.


CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research




ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Climate change impacts in South Australia

>
More intense heat waves, floods
and bushfires

>
Increased potential for infectious
diseases

>
Threats to coastal infrastructure
from sea level rise

>
Impacts on lifestyle, biodiversity,
primary production and water
supply

"Eleven of the hottest years in history have been in the last 12, and we also note, particularly in
the southern part of Australia, we're seeing less rainfall…All of this is consistent with climate
change, and all of this is consistent with what scientists told us would happen.”





~ Federal Climate Change Minister Penny Wong


Buckled railway lines during southern Australia heatwave




ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Energy is a central issue


although not the only one

>
Stationary energy is not so dominant in South Australia


low
greenhouse intensity of electricity supply due to natural gas and wind

>
South Australia is a net sink for land use change and forestry

>
Transport has greater relative importance



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Peak oil

>
Human civilisation relies on oil, a
finite resource

>
When demand exceeds supply,
prices will rise and shortages will
occur

>
Despite recent easing of oil
prices, peak oil may be even
more urgent than climate change

>
Some estimate that peak was
reached in 2008

>
Solutions to climate change and
peak oil are similar but need to
focus more strongly on the
interaction between stationary
energy and transport

Association for the Study of Peak Oil, December 2008




ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

We must change the way we use energy


The world’s energy system is at a
crossroads. Current global trends in
energy supply and consumption are
patently unsustainable


environmentally, economically, socially.
But that can


and must


be altered;
there’s still time to change the road
we’re on
”.

~ World Energy Outlook 2008, p.37



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Deep cuts needed for an effective response

>
The IPCC/UNFCCC consensus


Need to limit temperature rise to no more than 2
-
2.4
°
C


Stabilise GHGs at 445
-
490ppm CO
2
-
e


Global emissions need to peak by 2015 at the latest and fall
by 50
-
85% by 2050 (relative to 2000 levels)


Developed countries


25 to 40% reduction by 2020, 80
-
95%
by 2050 (relative to 1990 levels)

>
This is an economic transformation on the scale of the Industrial
Revolution but in one third of the time (Beinhocker et al 2008)

>
And some scientists say this is not enough…


United Nations
-
Sigma XI Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change. (2007).
Confronting climate change: Avoiding
the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable

(Report). Scientific Expert Group Report on Climate Change and
Sustainable Development, Prepared for the 15th Session of the Commission on Sustainable Development: United
Nations Foundation, Sigma XI.

IPCC 2007,
Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, An Assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change.

Beinhocker, E., Oppenheim, J., Irons, B., Lahti, M., Farrell, D., Nyquist, S., et al. (2008).
The carbon productivity
challenge: Curbing climate change and sustaining economic growth
: McKinsey Global Institute.




ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

The Rudd Government response

>
Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme


5
-
15% reduction in emissions between 2000 and
2020 depending on international response


Falls short of what is needed to stabilise at
450ppm


Many concessions to industry, including free
permits


Removes any incentive for voluntary action

>
National Renewable Energy Target


20% by
2020


Makes sure renewable energy plays a part in the
CPRS right from the start

>
National Strategy for Energy Efficiency
(COAG)



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

The Rann Government response

>
Climate Change and
Greenhouse Emissions
Reduction Act 2007

>
Commitment to 20%
renewable electricity by 2014

>
Solar feed
-
in tariff


Net, not gross

>
Improve energy efficiency of
dwellings by 10% by 2014

Energy in a changing climate

New McKinsey curve



ISF, UTS

Disarray

Mispricing

Disinterest

Maladministration

Impatience

Ignorance

Confusion

Regulatory
barriers

Cultural
barriers

Lack of information

Split Incentives:
landlord/ tenant etc

High discount
rates

Externalities and
price structures

Energy in a changing climate

Barriers to distributed energy

Dunstan, C and Daly, J, 2008, Institutional
Barriers to Intelligent Grid: A Discussion Paper,
Institute for Sustainable Futures,
www.igrid.net.au.




ISF, UTS

Disarray

Mispricing

Disinterest

Maladministration

Impatience

Ignorance

Confusion

Prohibitive
network
connection
requirements
and costs

Conservative network
businesses that know
how to build more
wires

Suppliers don’t have good data
on opportunities

Network businesses
can’t capture all
benefits from DM

Uncertainty, lack
of experience
leads to high
hurdle rates

Averaged tariffs that don’t
reflect real marginal cost

Energy in a changing climate

Example: Demand management in distribution networks

Dunstan, C and Daly, J, 2008, Institutional
Barriers to Intelligent Grid: A Discussion Paper,
Institute for Sustainable Futures,
www.igrid.net.au.




ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Research response: CSIRO Intelligent Grid Cluster

>
Collaborative project involving
five universities and CSIRO
(2008
-
2011)

>
Seven projects seeking to
hasten the emergence of an
intelligent grid


Highly efficient use of power


Distributed energy resources


Advanced communication and
control technologies


Deliver electricity more cost
-
effectively, with lower greenhouse
intensity and in response to
consumer needs.

A smart grid is “
a more intelligent,
resilient, reliable, self
-
balancing, and
interactive network that enables enhanced
economic growth, environmental
stewardship, operational efficiencies,
energy security, and consumer choice
”.


~ Electricity Advisory Committee, US
Department of Energy




ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

CSIRO Intelligent Grid Cluster: Lochiel Park

>
Intelligent grid in a new
housing development


UniSA project


Monitoring of distributed energy
at Lochiel Park Green Village


Reduce GHG emissions by
74%


7.5 star energy rating


Solar hot water and electricity


Smart metering


Load management trial

>
Use planning system to drive
emission reduction at
State/local level



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Distributed Energy Roadmap

>
DE Roadmap


Provide practitioners and policy makers
with practical guide and strategic plan
for removing institutional barriers to
distributed energy


Intensive stakeholder engagement
during 2009 and 2010


Industry Forum in Adelaide in
December 2008

>
What can South Australia do?


Contribute to DE Roadmap process


Lobby through COAG for the National
Strategy for Energy Efficiency to adopt
a coordinated approach to barriers


Energy efficiency in own operations


Use planning approval process





ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Renewable energy

>
SA has excellent access to top
three alternative energy sources


wind, solar thermal and
geothermal

>
Note low ranking for CCS,
hydrogen and ethanol

>
NRET is a positive move


Will deliver a lot more wind power
in SA


Fixed GWh target, so risk that it
will deliver less than 20%

>
SA feed in tariff


Another positive move but
successful overseas models pay
for gross generation

Jacobson,

MZ, 2009,
Review of solutions to global warming, air
pollution, and energy security,
Energy Environ. Sci.

>
What is SA’s role in supporting RE?

>
Facilitation

>
Support for R&D&C

>
Centre of excellence for
alternative energy?



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Solar thermal

>
DESERTEC


Concentrating solar thermal
could supply all of the world’s
energy in a relatively small
area


Could northern SA be a site?

>
Ausra


New 5MW plant just opened
in California


177MW facility under
development


Developed in Australia by
David Mills but left due to lack
of support

>
Unlikely to benefit much
from NRET

>
Support pilot and niche
applications



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Geothermal

>
Huge potential in SA


24 companies in exploration


Sufficient for hundreds of
years

>
Geodynamics


Cooper Basin


1MW by March 2009


50MW by 2011


10,000MW resource

>
Needs support for proof of
concept and demonstration

Steam flow at Habanero 3 March 2008. Courtesy of
Geodynamics



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Transport


the future is electric

>
In 2008, ISF developed Australia’s first
plug in hybrid vehicle (PHEV)

>
Electrification of transport system is
more promising than hydrogen economy


Renewables and hydrogen vehicles =
24% efficiency


Renewables and PHEVs = 69%
efficiency

>
Developing grid
-
interactive vehicles


take energy from the grid and supply to
the grid

>
Vehicles can charge overnight and
potentially help manage peak demand

>
Addresses peak oil and climate change


Kendall, G, 2008, Plugged in: The end of the oil age, WWF European Policy Office, Brussells.



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Voluntary action

>
Carbon Offset Watch


www.carbonoffsetwatch.org.au



Ranked carbon offset retailers


Found a vibrant and growing
voluntary carbon market


Outlet for those who want to go
further than government policy



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Protect and enhance the space for voluntary action

>
CPRS


Options for voluntary action are reduced to


Purchase and voluntary cancellation of CPRS permits


International offsets


Other types of voluntary action by non
-
liable parties will not reduce
aggregate emissions, only the carbon price


Energy efficiency


Green Power


Household solar


Domestic offsets (in CPRS and non
-
CPRS sectors)


Households or organisations that voluntarily reduce their emissions in these
ways are easing the burden on liable parties (large industry)

>
CPRS rules should be changed so that voluntary action is above and beyond
national targets


should be an outlet for those who think more needs to be
done, not a way of taking advantage of people doing the right thing

Department of Climate Change, 2008, National Carbon Offset Standard Discussion Paper, December.



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

The Green New Deal

“The global economy is facing a
‘triple crunch’. It is a combination of
credit
-
fuelled financial crisis,
accelerating climate change and
soaring energy prices underpinned
by an encroaching peak in oil
production. These three overlapping
events threaten to develop into a
perfect storm, the like of which has
not been seen since the Great
Depression. To help prevent this
from happening we are proposing a
Green New Deal”.

~ The Green New Deal Group, 2008

The Green New Deal Group, 2008, A Green New Deal, New Economics Foundation.


The flip side of the coin is the
enormous economic, social and
environmental benefits likely to
arise from combating climate
change and re
-
investing in
natural infrastructure
-

benefits
ranging from new green jobs in
clean tech and clean energy
businesses up to ones in
sustainable agriculture and
conservation
-
based
enterprises
”.

~
Achim

Steiner, UNEP
Executive Director, 2008



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

A Green New Deal

>
Make every building a power
station


energy efficiency and
DE

>
Train a ‘carbon army’

>
Ambitious emission targets to
drive innovation

>
Low
-
interest loans and
incentives for efficiency
(including insulation)

>
Re
-
regulate the finance sector
to deliver sustainable
outcomes

>
Australia has particular
opportunities in


Renewable energy


Energy efficiency


Sustainable water systems


Biomaterials


Green buildings


Waste and recycling

>
Could deliver 850,000 jobs

>
Climate change response can
be an opportunity

The Green New Deal Group, 2008, A Green New Deal, New Economics Foundation.

ACF and ACTU, 2008, Green Gold Rush.



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Cultural change

>
80
-
90% reductions will challenge some of our cultural practices



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Cultural change

>
There are technological solutions
but they come at a cost


As energy becomes more
expensive, we must begin to
contemplate lifestyle changes


Can we continue as a “consumer
culture”?


Can we afford to waste energy?

>
We need to advocate the tools
that will let people take control of
their energy use


Smart metering, in
-
home
displays


The Internet of Things



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Cultural change

>
Dominant social marketing approach to
behavioural change is failing


Simple, painless steps do not appear to
lead to stronger action later


Inconsistency between scale of what is
asked and what is needed to address the
problem


Refusal to question materialistic values

>
Need new approaches that appeal to
intrinsic goals and challenge deep
value commitments

>
We must tackle over
-
consumption if we
are to avoid dangerous climate change

Crompton, T. 2008,
Weathercocks & Signposts: The Environment Movement at a Crossroads, WWF
-
UK, Surrey.



ISF, UTS

Energy in a changing climate

Priorities

>
Strengthen CPRS target to make it consistent with the science
and reopen space for voluntary action

>
Lobby through COAG for a strong and coordinated National
Strategy on Energy Efficiency and provide example through SA
Government operations

>
Move to a gross solar feed
-
in tariff

>
Use planning system to drive local/State emission reductions

>
Provide support and facilitation for renewable energy that won’t
benefit much from MRET


solar thermal and geothermal in
particular

>
Support for electric vehicles


funding and fleet

>
A Green New Deal

>
Challenge over
-
consumption and provide tools for households
to take control of their energy use