New Directions in Modelling Innovation: applying agent-based methods to socio-technological transitions

strangerwineAI and Robotics

Oct 19, 2013 (3 years and 9 months ago)

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New Di rect i ons i n Model l i ng I nnovat i on:
appl yi ng agent
-
based met hods t o

soci o
-
t echnol ogi cal t ransi t i ons


Jonathan Köhler, Michaela
Gigli
, Antje Bierwisch, Arne
Lüllmann


Fraunhofer ISI


j.koehler@isi.fraunhofer.de



EU
-
SPRI Conference 2012


Fraunhofer

ISI

Karlsruhe

12
-
13
th

June 2012


Introduction

Transition
Theory

Agent
-
Based

modelling

of

transitions
:
the

MATISSE
pilot

model

Psychology of behavioural change

Niches and regimes: agents, networks, strategies

Possible modelling methods

What is to be done?








Transition
Theory









Multi
-
level perspective
on transitions

(adapted from
Geels
,
2002: p. 1263)


Agent
-
Based

modelling

of

transitions
:
the

MATISSE
pilot

model:1


Agent
-
Based

modelling

of

transitions
:
the

MATISSE
pilot

model:2


Two illustrations of a two
-
dimensional practices space, with practice axes
Px

and
Py
.
Left: regime and niches, which can move in the space and interact with each other.
Right: the consumer agents showing supporters scattered in the practices space,
coloured by the agent they support, red = regime (R), green = niche 1 (N1), blue = niche
2 (N2).

Psychology of behavioural change

Heuristic framework model (adapted from
Prochnow

et al, 2012)


Psychology of behavioural change


Levels and theories of behaviour change: electric vehicle adoption.


Anable

et al. (2011, p.1017)



Niches and regimes: agents, networks, strategies


Niches
,
regimes
:


Model
separately

or

emergent

property

from

agent

interactions
?


Can
they

be

modelled

as

networks
,
using

e.g.
social

network

theory
?

Functioning

of

niche

markets
:


Firm
strategies
;
strategic

managment

ideas

(
as

opposed

to

Strategic

Niche

Management)

Social

networks

and

entrepreneurial

activity
,
network

dynamics

Integration
of

product

based

characteristics

and

consumer

characteristics

in
Agent
Based

Models








Possible modelling methods


Problems
of

calibration

with

large
number

of

parameters
:


the

inverse
problem
,
from

overall

result

in
the

data
,
identify


plausible
ranges

of

parameters


Game
theory

for

agent

interactions


Neural

nets
,
learning

algorithms

from

Artificial

Intelligence









What is to be done?


Research question:

how to develop an Agent Based Model of sustainability transitions that can
investigate how niches arise and grow and under what conditions they lead to a
transtion

to a new socio
-
technical regime.


current literature on modelling does not address behavioural changes towards
sustainability and niche growth processes


Possible

methods

Psychological models for agents (consumers)

Social structures of niches and regimes, social network ideas

Firms’ behaviours and the dynamics of niche structures on the supply side,

Strategic
management

theory

as

well
as

Strategic
Niche

Management