How Aid Impacts the Decision to Enroll

strangerwineAI and Robotics

Oct 19, 2013 (3 years and 5 months ago)

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How Aid Impacts the Decision to Enroll

Jonathan Jacobs

Director of Enrollment Management Research

541
-
346
-
7406

jsj@uoregon.edu


Our Primary Financial Aid goals:


Make UO affordable.


Decrease debt load.


Leverage existing federal/state aid.


Balance need
-
based and merit
-
based aid.



Presented in an easily understood manner to
students and parents.

40%
Yield

Resident

Admit

4.0 HSGPA

60%

Go somewhere else

50%
Yield

How much do we need to increase aid
to increase yield 10%?

1.
What effect does additional merit aid have
on the probability of enrollment?


2.
How do we model the effect of restructured
aid on an entering class?


3.
How do we make that model interactive so
we can model different aid packages
dynamically and instantly
?


Modeling Population


Freshman Admits, fall 2011



Target Variable


BINARY: Student enrolls at the University in the fall



Model Methodologies


Neural Network


Independent Variables


TOTAL GRANT AID (minus federal/state)


High School GPA


SAT or converted ACT


Admission to Honor’s College


Residency


Day application was submitted


First generation


Underrepresented race/ethnicity


(REMOVED) UO First on FAFSA (if before May 1)


Significant interactions

Max
-
Rescaled R
-
square

.25

C
-
statistic

.77

Hosmer

and
Lemeshow

Goodness
-
of
-
Fit Test

.57


Scoring Population


All new entering freshmen, fall 2011



Probability of enrollment at different aid levels


14 datasets scored through the same model



Example: Bob Apple. GPA: 3.91, SAT: 1110

Orig

$0

$1K

$2K

$3K

$4K

$5K

$6K

$7K

$8K

$9K

$10K

$11K

$12K

22.0%

17.3%

19.4%

22.0%

25.1%

28.8%

33.0%

37.5%

42.1%

46.7%

51.0%

54.9%

58.6%

62.2%

Probability of enrolling at the University of Oregon at different merit aid levels.


Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs


Group populations dynamically.


Allow differing aid amounts.

Orig

$0

$1K

$2K

$3K

$4K

$5K

$6K

$7K

$8K

$9K

$10K

$11K

$12K

15.6%

12.6%

13.1%

13.6%

14.2%

14.7%

15.1%

15.6%

16.1%

16.7%

17.7%

19.4%

22.0%

26.0%

Orig

$0

$1K

$2K

$3K

$4K

$5K

$6K

$7K

$8K

$9K

$10K

$11K

$12K

22.0%

17.3%

19.4%

22.0%

25.1%

28.8%

33.0%

37.5%

42.1%

46.7%

51.0%

54.9%

58.6%

62.2%

Bob Apple, Resident, GPA 3.91, SAT 1110

Chris Coe, Nonresident, GPA 3.86 SAT 1070

Orig

$0

$1K

$2K

$3K

$4K

$5K

$6K

$7K

$8K

$9K

$10K

$11K

$12K

23.3%

15.0%

15.2%

15.5%

15.9%

16.6%

17.9%

20.0%

23.3%

28.0%

34.4%

42.5%

51.8%

61.4%

Kerry Oki, Resident, GPA 4.04, SAT 1380

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=ORIG

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=0

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=1

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=2

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=3

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=4

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=5

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=6

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=7

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=8

GRANTS_NEW_PROG=9



Resident Merit Scholarship

1200 SAT = 26 ACT and 1150 SAT = 25 ACT.

Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

Tier*

High

School

GPA

SAT

Score

Single Year Award

Tier 1

3.90

--

$2,000

Tier 2

3.80

--

$1,500

Tier 3

3.80

--

$1,200

Tier 4

3.70

--

$1,000

*Not a guaranteed award. Determination of Dean award amounts and eligibility is based in part on a scholarship review proces
s.

An additional Dean’s Access grant of $1,000 is awarded to resident students with demonstrated need.

High

School

GPA

SAT

Score

Single Year Award

Summit

3.80

1200

$5,000

Apex

3.65

1150

$3,000

Existing Dean’s Award

New Merit Program

$0.26

$0.34

$0.46

$0.35

$0.40

$0.00

$0.00

$0.72

$0.89

$1.11

$0
$0
$0
$1
$1
$1
$1
less than 1000
1000-1090
1100-1190
1200-1290
1300+
Total Outlay ($ in millions)

Distribution of Awards to Admitted Students

Total Award Outlay to Residents by SAT band, 2011 Cohort

Dean's Award
Actuals
New Merit Award
Projections
Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

Nonresident Merit Scholarship

1200 SAT = 26 ACT and 1150 SAT = 25 ACT.

Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

Tier*

High

School

GPA

SAT

Score

Single Year Award

Tier 1

4.00

--

$7,000

Tier 2

3.80

--

$6,000

Tier 3

3.70

--

$5,000

Tier 4

3.50

--

$4,000

*Not a guaranteed award. Determination of Dean award amounts and eligibility is based in part on a scholarship review proces
s.

High

School

GPA

SAT

Score

Single Year Award

Summit

3.80

1200

$8,000

Apex

3.65

1150

$4,000

Existing Dean’s Award

New Merit Program

952

641

651

462

$1.81

$2.72

$3.62

$2.96

$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
Dean Award
New Merit Award
Dean Award
New Merit Award
Total Expenditures ($ in millions)

Number of Recipients

Award Comparison of Aid Programs

Fall 2011 Cohort

Number of Awards
Total Expenditure
Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

Residents

Nonresidents

Additional Cost of New Financial Aid
Program

+$179K
(+3.2%)

Increase

to Total Resident Awards

50%
($1.8M to $2.7M)

Additional “Summit”

S
tudents Enrolled

(3.80 HS

GPA, 1200 SAT)
(Includes
nonres
)

+129
(+24%)

Enrollment of students with Less Than
a

3.00 High School GPA

-
97

(
-
77%)

Average High School GPA

3.62
(+0.05 point improvement
over model using actual awards)

Average SAT

1123
(+34 point

improvement over
model using actual awards)

The model shows a net increase of 106 admits enrolling due to
reallocating and increasing aid.

Source: UO Enrollment Management Research, Jonathan Jacobs

Benefits of the New Merit Award

Assuming the same 2011 Admit Pool

33.9%

35.4%

37.2%

39.2%

41.6%

44.4%

47.7%

51.5%

55.8%

0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
Probability of Enrollment at Different Levels of Aid

Residents, 3.8 HSGPA or higher, 1200 SAT or higher

3.3 point increase to yield.

10% persuaded by aid

90% already coming

10.5 point increase to yield.

30% persuaded by aid

70% already coming

How Aid Impacts the Decision to Enroll

Jonathan Jacobs

Director of Enrollment Management Research

541
-
346
-
7406

jsj@uoregon.edu