Ciruli Associates
C
olorado: “
A
B
attleground
for
P
residential
P
olitics”
Progressive 15
Northeast Colorado
September 17, 2008
Floyd Ciruli
Ciruli Associates
1
78%
76%
55%
10%
15%
25%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Good for State
Bad for State
Democrats
Unaffiliated
Republicans
Convention
–
Good for Colorado
38 Million Watch
Ciruli Associates 2008
Ciruli Associates, N550 voters, August 6, 2008
Democratic National Convention “Good for Colorado”
•
Hickenlooper/Denver are winners
•
State Democrats exposure
•
Reinforces state is battleground
Question:
Do you believe that holding the Democratic National Convention in Denver the third
(fourth) week of August will be good for the State of Colorado or bad for the state?
2
•
Friday morning bounce, Gallup
8 points
•
Party unity
•
Economic focus/plan offered
•
Frame choice: Bush/McCain vs.
Obama/Biden
McCain vs. Obama
Bounce Meets Bounce
Ciruli Associates 2008
Democrats Have Good Convention
•
Palin effect
–
37 million
watch
•
National security focus
•
Character, independence,
reform
•
Now ahead in polls
Republicans Gain Momentum
3
Ciruli Associates 2008
Ciruli Associates from Real Clear Politics, Rasmussen 2008
RCP Average
9/5
-
9/15
45.3
46.1
McCain +0.8
Gallup Tracking
9/13
-
9/15
46
47
McCain +1
Rasmussen Tracking
9/13
-
9/15
47
48
McCain +1
Fox News
9/8
-
9/9
42
45
McCain +3
Gallup Tracking
9/7
-
9/9
43
48
McCain +5
NBC/WSJ
9/6
-
9/8
46
45
Obama +1
ABC/Washington Post
9/5
-
9/7
47
49
McCain +2
CBS News
9/1
-
9/3
42
42
Tie
Gallup Tracking
9/1
-
9/3
49
42
Obama +7
Rasmussen Tracking
8/28
-
8/30
47
43
Obama +4
Gallup Tracking
8/27
-
8/29
49
41
Obama +8
CNN
8/23
-
8/24
47
47
Tie
USA Today/Gallup
8/21
-
8/23
48
45
Obama +3
Obama
McCain
Poll
Date
(D)
(R)
Spread
The Race to the Finish
The Debates
Sept. 26
: 1
st
presidential debate, Oxford, MI
Oct. 2
: Vice presidential debate, St. Louis, MO
Oct. 7
: 2
nd
presidential debate, Nashville, TN
Oct. 15
: 3
rd
presidential debate, Hempstead, NY
Nov. 4
: Election Day
4
65%
25%
39%
45%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
18-34 Years Old
65 Years Old and Older
Right Direction
Wrong Track
Ciruli Associates 2008
•
47% said right direction, 63% in Sept. 2007
•
African
-
American
–
63% right direction
Younger Voters Upbeat, Older Worried
Age of Anxiety
State’s Mood Turns Down
Ciruli Associates, N500, July 2008
Question:
Overall, would you say things are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel
things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track here in Colorado?
5
Colorado Remains on Battleground List
Ciruli Associates 2008
Colorado: McCain vs. Obama
RCP Average
9/11
-
9/14
--
47.3
46.7
Obama +0.6
Fox/Rasmussen
9/14
-
9/14
500 LV
46
48
McCain +3
Fox/Rasmussen
9/7
-
9/7
500 LV
49
46
Obama +3
CNN/Time
8/24
-
8/26
670 RV
46
47
McCain +1
Quinnipiac
8/15
-
8/21
1060 RV
46
47
McCain +1
Denver Post
8/13
-
8/15
400 LV
46
43
Obama +3
Rocky Mtn News/CBS4
8/11
-
8/13
500 RV
41
44
McCain +3
Obama
McCain
Poll
Date
Sample
(D)
(R)
Spread
•
Obama leads most of June and July
•
Then lead exchanges in late July and
August
•
In first September polls race remains
close
“We’re talking presidential gridlock here,”
Floyd Ciruli, Rocky Mountain News, 9
-
13
-
08
6
Colorado Politics Shifts to Blue
Ciruli Associates 2008
Colorado economic downturn shifts agenda to left and away
from social issues. Economy changes to high tech and
service.
Rapid growth of new voters in suburbs, exurbs and I
-
70
corridor split tickets, register more independent (1,023
Republicans, 1,021 Unaffiliated, 945 Democrats)
Colorado Republicans divided on fiscal and social issues. Face
tough primaries.
Growth of Democratic bench and support infrastructure
(money, think tanks, blogs). Candidates position in the
middle.
National Republican fortunes decline
•
Gary Hart: Manifesto: Democrats and the West, Fall 2006
•
Fred Barnes: The Colorado Model, Weekly Standard, 7/21/08
•
Ryan Lizza: The Code of the West, New Yorker, 8/22/08
7
The Code of the West
One Theory of Colorado Electorate
Ciruli Associates 2008
New Yorker, Ryan Lizza, July 10, 2008
•
Core conservatives and liberals don’t shift
•
Government pragmatists pro
-
choice and want solutions
•
Moral pragmatists like limits, but minimum conflict
Moral
Pragmatist,
14%
Government
Pragmatist,
37%
Very Liberal,
20%
Fox News
Conservative,
16%
Moral
Conservative,
13%
Gary Hart
“We are now at the
cusp...of the end of
the Nixon
-
Reagan
-
Bush era. Obama is
poised, if he is bold
enough, to be a
transformational
president...”
8
RCP Average
8/5
-
8/24
--
45.0
38.0
Udall +7
Suffolk
8/21
-
8/24
450 LV
39
31
Udall +8
Denver Post
8/13
-
8/15
400 LV
47
37
Udall +10
Rocky Mtn News/CBS4
8/11
-
8/13
500 RV
44
38
Udall +6
Rasmussen
8/13
-
8/13
500 LV
50
42
Udall +8
PPP (D)
8/5
-
8/7
933 LV
47
41
Udall +6
Quinnipiac
7/14
-
7/22
1425 LV
44
44
Tie
Ciruli Associates 2008
Ciruli Associates from Real Clear Politics, Rasmussen 2008
Colorado Senate
Udall
Schaffer
Poll
Date
Sample
(D)
(R)
Spread
U.S. Senate Race
“The real test for Democrats will
be if they pick up a senate seat,”
Floyd Ciruli
9
Ciruli Associates 2008
Public Opinion Shifts on Energy Supply
More exploration/mining/drilling
and power plants
35%
47%
+12%
vs.
More conservation/regulation
55
45
-
10%
Develop new energy sources
54
60
+6%
vs.
Protect the environment
36
34
-
2%
Favor drilling in ANWR
42
50
+8%
Questions
Feb. 2008
June 2008
Change
Ciruli Associates reformatted Pew Poll 2008
Pew Poll Shows Americans Shifting Toward Traditional Sources
“We are a completely committed recreational state and by and large,
we recreate with gas. We load up the SUV and go to the mountains,”
Floyd Ciruli, pollster, MSNBC Tom Curry, 8
-
2
-
08
10
Ciruli Associates 2008
In Colorado, Offshore Drilling
Attracts the Independent Voter
Support
59%
82%
34%
57%
Oppose
37
15
60
40
Don’t know/NA
4
3
5
4
Total
Rep.
Dem.
Ind.
Quinnipiac, July 24, 2008
Question:
To help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on foreign oil, do you
support or oppose drilling for new oil supplies in currently protected areas offshore?
Offshore Drilling in Protected Areas
•
On July 24, gas prices become top issue, and
Obama and McCain tied (33% each) on who
has best program to solve energy crisis now
•
Republicans finally find an issue with some
traction; McCain up by 2, Senate race tied
“We had begun to think there was a very significant Democratic
advantage, but ($4
-
per
-
gallon gasoline) shows us how quickly an issue
can energize and change the dynamics of a race,”
Floyd Ciruli, pollster, Rocky
Mountain News, 7
-
25
-
08
11
Ciruli Associates 2008
But Colorado Voters Still Like Renewables
Renewable energy
54%
Drilling
21
Nuclear power
9
High mileage cars
5
Strategic Reserve
4
Don’t know/NA
7
Question:
Which is the best way to help solve the energy crisis and make America less dependent on
foreign oil
–
A) building new nuclear power plants, B) drilling offshore and in Alaska, C)
developing renewable energy sources like solar power, wind power and biofuels, D)
releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, or E) mandating higher mileage
standards for cars?
Quinnipiac, July 24, 2008
Majority of Public Wants Balanced Approach
•
Obama says energy compromise is necessary,
Washington Post
, 8
-
3,08
•
Udall energy plan includes offshore drilling,
Rocky Mountain News
, 8
-
14
-
08
•
Salazar pushes offshore drilling,
Denver Post
, 8
-
22
-
08
12
31%
49%
21%
44%
34%
22%
49%
27%
24%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Republican
Unaffiliated
Democrat
Support
Oppose
Don't know
Ciruli Associates 2008
•
41% support/37% oppose/22% don’t know
Increase State Severance Tax
Ciruli Associates, N500, July/August 2008
Question:
Increase the state severance tax $321 million dollars annually by removing the local
property tax exemption. The increased tax funding would go to college scholarships,
wildlife programs, alternative energy research, and local transportation and water
projects.
Amendment 58
“I think its success will,
indeed, give him
bragging rights and
momentum. If it loses, I
think he will be
weakened by the loss,”
Floyd Ciruli, pollster, Grand
Junction Sentinel, 8
-
2
-
08
13
37%
37%
17%
51%
26%
23%
59%
21%
20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Republican
Unaffiliated
Democrat
Support
Oppose
Don't know
Ciruli Associates 2008
•
48% support/32% oppose/19% don’t know
School Fund, Suspend TABOR Spending
Rules, Eliminate Amendment 23
Ciruli Associates, N500, July/August 2008
Question:
Create a fund for preschool to 12
th
grade education from revenue that the State of
Colorado would have refunded to taxpayers by permanently suspending the TABOR
amendment rules related to limited government spending. Eliminate the requirement that
statewide per
-
pupil funding grow at least the rate of inflation and create a savings account
for education.
Amendment 59
14
32%
38%
29%
38%
24%
38%
37%
23%
41%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Republican
Unaffiliated
Democrat
Support
Oppose
Don't know
Ciruli Associates 2008
•
35% support/29% oppose/36% don’t know
Increase the Number of Signatures
for Constitutional Amendment
Ciruli Associates, N500, July/August 2008
Referendum O
Question:
Increase the number of signatures required to place a constitutional measure on the ballot
and require signatures on constitutional measure to be gathered from each of the state’s
congressional districts. It reduces the number of signatures to place a state statute on the
ballot and restricts any changes by the state legislature for five years.
15
•
Amendment 47: Right to work
–
Private
•
Amendment 49: Prohibit paycheck deduction
–
Public
•
Amendment 54: Prohibit sole
-
source contributions
–
Public
Labor Peace Ends
Ciruli Associates 2008
Business/Government
Will There be any Winners?
•
Amendment 53: Criminal liability
–
Private
•
Amendment 55: Just cause
–
Private
•
Amendment 56: Health insurance
–
Private
•
Amendment 57: Safe workplace
–
Private
Labor
16
Ciruli Associates 2008
•
92% of voters believe a “dependable supply of water”
very important to strong economy.
•
Referendum A loses. Carries no county, but started
ahead.
•
In a telephone interview with the
Pueblo Chieftain
“...the water compact that Colorado and other upper
basin states have with California and a region should be
renegotiated,” U.S. Senator John McCain said, 8
-
15
-
2008
•
Senator Salazar, “...only happen over my dead body.”
•
“My recent remarks may have been mistakenly
construed...Let me be clear that I do not advocate
renegotiations of the compact.” 8
-
20
-
08
Water, the Third Rail of Colorado Politics
Divisions among water stakeholders keep Colorado in policy gridlock.
Is Colorado vulnerable because it does not claim its Colorado River
entitlement?
17
Ciruli Associates 2008
Record turnout
Aggressive and expensive campaigns
Independent voters key target
National advertising
Energy and environment major issue
Close election
Repeated presidential visits
Impact on Colorado
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