LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST NOTABLE DISASTERS TURKEY PART 3: EARTHQUAKES

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Nov 25, 2013 (3 years and 4 months ago)

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LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST
NOTABLE DISASTERS

TURKEY

PART 3: EARTHQUAKES



Walter Hays, Global Alliance for
Disaster Reduction, Vienna,
Virginia, USA


TURKEY

NATURAL HAZARDS THAT HAVE CAUSED
DISASTERS IN TURKEY

FLOODS

WINDSTORMS

EARTHQUAKES

WILDFIRES

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGH BENEFIT/COST FROM
BECOMING DISASTER
NRESILIENT

GOAL: PROTECT PEOPLE
AND COMMUNITIES


Natural Phenomena That Cause
Disasters


Planet Earth’s
heat flow causes
movement of
lithospheric
plates, which
causes faulting,
which causes
EARTH
-
QUAKES

TECTONIC PLATES

TECTONIC PLATES

ANATOLIAN PLATE AND
NORTH ANATOLIAN FAULT

TURKEY’S SEISMICITY: 1900
TO PRESENT

ELEMENTS OF RISK AND
DISASTER

HAZARDS

ELEMENTS OF EARTHQUAKE
RISK

EXPOSURE

VULNERABILITY

LOCATION

RISK


EARTHQUAKE

HAZARD MODEL


SEISMICITY


TECTONIC

SETTING &
FAULTS

IDENTIFY THE
SEISMICALLY ACTIVE
FAULTS

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS


ARE POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS

EARTHQUAKE HAZARDS

SURFACE FAULT RUPTURE,
GROUND SHAKING, GROUND
FAILURE (LIQUEFACTION,
LANDSLIDES), AFTERSHOCKS

TECTONIC
DEFORMATION

EARTHQUAKE


TSUNAMI

GROUND

SHAKING

FAULT RUPTURE

FOUNDATION
FAILURE

SITE
AMPLIFICATION

LIQUEFACTION


LANDSLIDES


AFTERSHOCKS


SEICHE

DAMAGE/LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/ LOSS

DAMAGE/LOSS

GROUND SHAKING

PROBABILISTIC GROUND
SHAKING HAZARD


EXPOSURE

MODEL


LOCATION OF
STRUCTURE

IMPORTANCE AND
VALUE OF
STRUCTURE AND
CONTENTS


VULNERABILITY

MODEL

QUALITY OF
DESIGN AND
CONSTRUCTION

ADEQUACY OF
LATERAL
-
FORCE
RESISTING SYSTEM

INTENSITY

V

VI

VII

VIII

IX

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

MEAN DAMAGE RATIO,
% OF REPLACEMENT VALUE

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS HAVE
DIFFERENT VULNERABILITIES TO
GROUND SHAKING

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO
HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT
(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND
FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION
AND PLAN


FIRE FOLLOWING RUPTURE OF
UTILITIES



LACK OF DETAILING AND
CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON
-
STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES
OF
DAMAGE

“DISASTER
LABORATORIES”

A DISASTER CAN HAPPEN

WHEN THE

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS
OF AN EARTHQUAKE INTERACT
WITH TURKEY’S COMMUNITIES

A DISASTER is
---



---

the set of failures that
overwhelm the
capability of
a community
to

respond
without external help

when three
continuums: 1)

people,

2)
community

(i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and
social constructs), and 3)
complex
events
(e.g., earthquakes, floods,…)
intersect
at a point in space

and time.


Disasters are caused by
s
ingle
-

or multiple
-
event
natural hazards that, (for
various reasons), cause
extreme levels of

mortality,
morbidity, homelessness,
joblessness, economic losses,
or environmental impacts
.

THE REASONS ARE . . .


When it does happen, the
functions of the community’s
buildings and infrastructure will be
LOST

because they are
UNPROTECTED

with the
appropriate codes and standards
.


THE REASONS ARE . . .


The community is
UN
-
PREPARED

for what will likely
happen, not to mention the
low
-
probability of occurrence

high
-
probability of adverse
consequences event.


THE REASONS ARE . . .


The community has
NO

DISASTER
PLANNING SCENARIO
or
WARNING SYSTEM
in place as a
strategic framework for early threat
identification and coordinated
local, national, regional, and
international countermeasures.




THE REASONS ARE . . .


The community
LACKS THE
CAPACITY TO RESPOND in a
timely and effective manner

to
the full spectrum of
expected
and unexpected

emergency
situations
.

THE REASONS ARE . . .


The community is
INEFFICIENT

during recovery and
reconstruction because it
HAS
NOT LEARNED
from either the
current experience or the
cumulative prior experiences.


ERZINCAN:

TURKEY’S WORST
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

DECEMBER 26, 1939

A STRIKE
-
SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE

32,700 DEATHS

M7.8




ERZINCAN

ERZINCAN COLLAPSE

IZMIT:

TURKEY’S 2
ND

WORST
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
AUGUST 17, 1999

A STRIKE
-
SLIP FAULT EARTHQUAKE

17,118 DEATHS

M7.6




COLLAPSES

IZMIT HIGHLIGHTED TODAY’S
PROBLEM:
SOFT
-
STOREY BUILDINGS


THE REASON
:

LACK OF, OR INADEQUATE
PROTECTION

(I.E., ADOPTION AND
IMPLEMENTATION OF A MODERN
BUILDING CODE)


THE ALTERNATIVE TO AN
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER IS

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
RESILIENCE

TURKEY’S
COMMUNITIES

DATA BASES
AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS:

GROUND SHAKING
GROUND FAILURE
SURFACE FAULTING
TECTONIC DEFORMATION
TSUNAMI RUN UP
AFTERSHOCKS



EARTHQUAKE
HAZARDS


INVENTORY


VULNERABILITY


LOCATION

EARTHQUAKE RISK

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

EARTHQUAKE
DISASTER RESILIENCE


PREPAREDNESS


PROTECTION


FORECASTS/SCENARIOS


EMERGENCY RESPONSE


RECOVERY and


RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONS

LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES


PREPAREDNESS FOR
ALL OF THE LIKELY
HAZARDS AND
RISKS IS ESSENTIAL
FOR DISASTER
RESILIENCE


LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES


PROTECTION OF
BUILDINGS AND
INFRASTRUCTURE
AGAINST COLLAPSE
AND LOSS OF
FUNCTION IS
ESSENTIAL FOR
DISASTER
RESILIENCE


LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES
TECHNOLOGIES
THAT FACILITATE
THREAT IDENTI
-
FICATION AND/OR
PREPARATION OF
DISASTER
SCENARIOS ARE
ESSENTIAL FOR
DISASTER
RESILIENCE


LESSONS LEARNED ABOUT
DISASTER RESILIENCE

ALL EARTHQUAKES


TIMELY
EMERGENCY
RESPONSE IS
ESSENTIAL FOR
DISASTER
RESILIENCE

EARTHQUAKES IN TURKEY ARE
INEVITABLE


---
SO, DON’T WAIT
FOR ANOTHER
REMINDER OF THE
IMPORTANCE OF
BECOMING
EARTHQUAKE DIS
-
ASTER RESILIENT.

STRATEGIC COLLABORATION
(I.E., WORKING TOGETHER ON A
COMMON GOAL)


FOR BECOMING
EARTHQUAKE DISASTER
RESILIENT

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
EQ

TS DISASTER RESILIENCE


MEASURMENT
TECHNOLOGIES (E.G.,
GROUND SHAKING;
STRAIN)



INFORMATION
TECHNOLOGY
(E.G., GIS)


RISK MODELING (E.G.,
HAZUS, INSURANCE
UNDERWRITING)


DATABASES


DISASTER
SCENARIOS


ZONATION OF
POTENTIAL DISASTER
AGENTS AS A TOOL
FOR POLICY
DECISIONS

EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
EQ

TS DISASTER REWILIENCE


AUTOMATED
CONSTRUCTION
EQUIPMEMT


PREFABRICATION
AND
MODULARIZATION


ADVANCED
MATERIALS (E.G.,
COMPOSITES)



COMPUTER AIDED
DESIGN


PERFORMANCE BASED
CODES AND STANDARDS


ACTIVE AND PASSIVE
ENERGY DISSIPATION
DEVICES (E.G., BASE
ISOLATION)


REAL
-
TIME MONITORING
AND WARNING SYSTEMS


EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR
EQ

TS DISASTER RESILIENCE


PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS OF
PHYSICAL EFFECTS


MEASUREMENT
TECHNOLOGIES (E.G.,
SEISMIC NETWORKS,
TSUNAMI WARNING
SYSTEM)



DATABASES


SEISMIC ENGINEERING


MAPS: GROUND
SHAKING, GTOUND
FAILURE, TSUNAMI WAVE
RUNIP


DISASTER SCENARIOS


WARNING SYSTEMS


RISK MODELING (E.G.,
HAZUS, INSURANCE
UNDERWRITING)