Population and places through time: Grid-square data and the NILS

skillfulbuyerUrban and Civil

Nov 16, 2013 (3 years and 9 months ago)

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Population and places through
time: Grid
-
square data and the NILS

Ian Shuttleworth

QUB and NILS
-
RSU

Outline


What data resources are available to profile
local communities?


How can change through time be mapped for
small areas with available data?


How can these data resources be accessed?


What are your information needs and how
might they be met?


Focus on the
Grid
-
Square Resource
and the
Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (NILS)

The Grid
-
Square Resource


1km (everywhere 1971
-
2001) and 100m cells
(Belfast 1971
-
1991, everywhere 2001)


Geographically standard and
consistent

spatial
units through time


unlike other census
output geographies


which can change
between Censuses


Counts
of population for all cells; if more than
8 households and more than 25 individuals
then other counts


The Grid
-
Square Resource


Topic counts:
for example, housing tenure, car
ownership, age group, community background



Profile small areas 1971, 1991, 2001 (and next
year) 2011 plus change between these years


Data can be obtained from NISRA


Standard NI Census output
but

not as easy to use
as other outputs


Requires GIS capability and also understanding
variable definition in various Censuses




1971: Percentage Catholic by 100m grid squares

1991: Percentage Catholic by 100m grid squares

2001: Percentage Catholic by 100m grid squares

The NILS


Established in 2006; designed to examine change
through time, mortality, fertility, mobility


Based on a 28% sample (104/365 birthdates) of
health card registrations which is linked to the
2001 Census, and soon the 2011 Census, and
then the 1991 Census (c500,000 people)


Plus births and deaths in intervening years


Possible by 2014 (and 2001
-
2011 by late 2013) to
examine population and social changes 1991
-
2011




The NILS


28% sample is large enough to consider small
areas (SOAs) or population groups
in context


Data accessed via the NILS
-
RSU


http://www.qub.ac.uk/research
-
centres/NILSResearchSupportUnit/AvailableData/


Staff can help in understanding more about
the data and the range of relevant possible
projects that might be of interest




The NILS


Selected current projects


Project 059:


The Dynamics of Cultural Integration


A Longitudinal Case Study on the Fertility and demand
for maternity services of the two Communities in Northern Ireland using
NILS.
Further

details


Project 058:


Evaluating current area level indicators for measuring disadvantage.

Further details


Project 055:

Long
-
term illness, poor health and housing (
im
)mobility.

Further details


Project
054:

Current religious status and impacts on overall self
-
reported health, mortality risk and
variations in cause
-
specific mortality: a comparison study between individuals with an existing affiliation to a
religious denomination and those without.

Further details


Project 053:

Vital Events Standard Outputs: Using the NILS and the NIMS to Produce Annual Standard
Outputs of Births & Deaths by Demographic, Socio
-
Economic and Area Characteristics.

Further details


Project 052:

Exploring the relationship between deprivation measured at individual, household and area
level and cancer incidence and survival
inNorthern

Ireland: An exemplar linkage study using the NILS and
NICR databases.

Further
details


Project
051:

How accurate and timely are health registrations address data? An assessment using the
NILS.

Further details


Project 050:

Forecasting Fertility in Northern Ireland using a Time Varying Coefficients Model.

Further details


Project 049:

Prevalence and patterns of antidepressant use among women of reproductive age in Northern
Ireland.

Further details


Project 046:


A
pharmaco
-
epidemiological study of Anxiolytic and Antidepressant Drug uptake in


Northern
Ireland.

Further details


Project 044:


An analysis of health status, mobility, demographic and socio
-
economic characteristics by
occupational group.

Further details


Project 043:


Commuting, migration and health


a longitudinal study in Northern Ireland.

Further details


The NILS


Example use of the NILS


a possible research
project


Questions:


Who moves into and out of socially
-
deprived
areas?


What happens to (a) people who move out of
socially
-
deprived areas and (b) people who move
into socially deprived areas after (i) 5 years (ii) 10
years?




The NILS


The NILS could be used by Autumn 2013 to answer
these questions by:


Locating people in 2001 and profiling their social,
household and demographic characteristics using the 2001
Census


Health card registration data (address changes) could then
by used to locate them in 2005 and 2011 to find out if
people had moved and, if so where they had moved to


Then data from the 2011 Census could be used to
their
social, household and demographic characteristics



were
moves out deprived areas, for instance, associated with a
greater chance of employment in 2011




Area Change
-

Policy Intervention


2001

Least Deprived

Most Deprived


2011

Least Deprived

Most Deprived

Migration
Effects

+

-

Births

Deaths

Births

Deaths

Area Change
-

No Policy Intervention


2001

Least Deprived

Most Deprived


2011

Least Deprived

Most Deprived

Migration
Effects

+

-

Births

Deaths

Births

Deaths


Economic Mobility


2001


2011

16+

16+

In Employment

Self
-
employment

Unemployed

Retired

Births

Deaths

Births

Deaths

Migration
Effects

+

-

Permanently sick

In Employment

Self
-
employment

Unemployed

Retired

Permanently sick

Conclusion


The
Grid
-
Square Data
and the
NILS

are
powerful resources for understanding
localities and population dynamics


These resources are publicly funded


they
therefore should be used as widely as possible
for the public good


There are many different ways to use these
resources


You might be a consumer of research findings
produced by someone else as part of their work



Conclusion


Using these resources


You might commission someone to do specific work
that you define


You may use the data yourselves


The NILS
-
RSU exists to promote the NILS data and
to help both new and experienced users to
develop and undertake projects


One of its purposes is to build capacity in using the
NILS


More capacity building is needed to make use of
the Grid
-
Square Resource


Conclusion


Using the Grid
-
Square resource


The data can be accessed from the NISRA website


Academics or other experienced data users may
be able to advise on mapping and using the data
to examine change through time


Contact information


The NILS


Ian Shuttleworth (
i.shuttleworth@qub.ac.uk
)


Michael Rosato (
m.rosato@qub.ac.uk
)


Joanne
Cartland

(
joanne.cartland@dfpni.gov.uk
)


The Grid
-
Square Resource


Ian Shuttleworth (
i.shuttleworth@qub.ac.uk
)


first point
of contact