LARGE-SCALE SOLAR POLICY ROADMAP LAUNCH

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Nov 20, 2013 (4 years and 11 months ago)

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Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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LARGE-SCALE SOLAR
POLICY ROADMAP
LAUNCH
LARGE-SCALE SOLAR PROJECT DEPLOYMENT
INTERNATIONALLY
9 SEPTEMBER 2011
Kobad Bhavnagri
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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ABOUT BLOOMBERG NEW ENERGY FINANCE
London
New York
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Sao Paulo
Beijing
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San Francisco
Tokyo
Hong Kong
200+ staff in 11 offices worldwide
Objective: serve clients with the best intelligence on finance, technology and
policy developments in clean energy, energy efficiency and carbon markets
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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$52bn
$76bn
$113bn
$151bn
$180bn
$186bn
$243bn
48%
48%
34%
19%
4%
30%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
GLOBAL TOTAL NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY,
2004–2010 (USD BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Includes corporate and government R&D, and small distributed capacity.
Adjusted for re-invested equity. Does not include proceeds from acquisition
transactions
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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GENERATING CAPACITY INVESTMENT, 2004–10 (USD BN)
Source: IEA, EIA, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Investment for new build – fossil fuel calculated from EIA & IEA numbers, clean
energy taken from Bloomberg New Energy Finance totals. Clean energy capacity
includes small distributed capacity.
Fossil fuel
Clean
energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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ASSET FINANCE FOR NEW BUILD CLEAN ENERGY, 2010
(USD BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals
1.4
1.5
1.8
2.2
2.2
2.3
2.4
3.2
4.4
4.6
4.8
6.2
6.9
20.7
47.3
Poland
Pakistan
Portugal
Australia
United Kingdom
Mexico
Belgium
India
Canada
Spain
Italy
Germany
Brazil
United States
China
ASOC
AMER
EMEA
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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2010 SOLAR INVESTMENT (USD BN)
+1.6
+2.1
+1.5
+0.7
+5.3
+11.1
+0.3
+19
+60 +89
+14
+104
VC
CorpRD&D
Gov R&D
PE
Public markets
new equity
Total company
investment
Re-invested
Asset finance
Small
-
scale
PV
Total
investment
M&A / buy
-
outs
Total
transactions
Note: Based on disclosed transactions, plus estimates from installed capacity released by
grid operators, subsidy programme operators and industry associations
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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TOTAL INSTALLED LARGE-SCALE SOLAR CAPACITY
GLOBALLY BY COUNTRY, END 2010 (MW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Includes both PV and STEG capacity. Large-scale is defined as a generation
project of 1MW and over
Spain,
4263
Germany,
2185
United
States, 826
Italy, 1098
Czech
Republic,
1405
China, 350
Australia, 3
Other,
2147
Total =
12277MW
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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TOTAL INSTALLED LARGE-SCALE SOLAR CAPACITY
GLOBALLY BY TECHNOLOGY, BY THE END OF 2010 (MW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Large-scale is defined as a generation project of 1MW and over
PV, 11055
STEG, 1223
Total = 12227MW
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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TOP 10 COUNTRIES BY INSTALLED LARGE-SCALE SOLAR
CAPACITY, BY THE END OF 2010 (MW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Large-scale is defined as a generation project of 1MW and over
Australia at 4MW
is ranked #27
177
264
347
498
736
392
1098
1405
2185
3529
434
734
177
264
350
498
736
826
1098
1405
2185
4263
Canada
Greece
China
Korea
France
USA
Italy
Czech
Germany
Spain
PV
STEG
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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GLOBAL LARGE-SCALE SOLAR INSTALLATIONS BY YEAR
(MW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Large-scale is defined as a generation project of 1MW and over
4
8
13
30
83
159
698
3624
1669
4903
866
76
58
230
506
454
236
236
756
3,854
2,175
5,357
1,102
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
YTD
STEG
PV
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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GLOBAL LARGE-SCALE SOLAR ASSET FINANCING BY
YEAR (USD M)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Disclosed financing only
498
1,765
6,113
12,725
5,081
9,546
5,572
-
-
-
1,754
3,672
5,935
4,911
7,277
1
48
59
177
538
3,013
7,866
16,397
11,016
14,457
12,849
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
YTD
STEG
PV
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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DISCLOSED COST/W OF LARGE PV PROJECTS, BY
COUNTRY, 2004-JULY 2011 (USD/W)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Based on disclosed project costs tracked by the Bloomberg New Energy Finance
database, converted to USD from local currency at time of announcement
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2012
Australia
Belgium
Bulgaria
Canada
China
Czech Republic
France
Germany
Italy
Japan
Korea (Republic)
Spain
United States
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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GERMAN PV INSTALLATIONS, BY TYPE AND MONTH, 2009-
APRIL 2011 (MW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
3
16
55
115
150
206
307
291
327
379
503
1,449
222
163
331
454
573
2,109
663
363
654
341
360
1,174
266
101
147
200
Jan
-
09
Feb
-
09
Mar
-
09
Apr
-
09
May
-
09
Jun
-
09
Jul
-
09
Aug
-
09
Sep
-
09
Oct
-
09
Nov
-
09
Dec
-
09
Jan
-
10
Feb
-
10
Mar
-
10
Apr
-
10
May
-
10
Jun
-
10
Jul
-
10
Aug
-
10
Sep
-
10
Oct
-
10
Nov
-
10
Dec
-
10
Jan
-
11
Feb
-
11
Mar
-
11
Apr
-
11
commercial
residential
utility
Feed
-
in tariff cut
Feed-in tariff cut
Feed-in tariff cut
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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ANNUAL COSTS OF TARIFFS AS SHARE OF GDP VS PV
ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION AS SHARE OF CONSUMPTION
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Eurostat,
Canadian Statistical
Note: Size of bubble represents the capacity installed at the end of
2010
Germany
Czech
Republic
Italy
Spain
France
Greece
Ontario
0.00%
0.05%
0.10%
0.15%
0.20%
0.25%
0.30%
0.35%
0.40%
0.45%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5GW
Annual costs as share of GDP
Share of PV electricity production of overall electricity consumption

Europeans are starting to
get tired of paying for PV
feed-in tariffs

Governments are reacting
by cutting tariffs sharply
(Germany), implementing
caps (Spain), removing
support for large PV projects
entirely (UK, Czech
Republic) and planning
bureaucracy (Italy, Greece)
• The future of European
solar is slower growth and
rooftop projects
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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WIND TARIFFS UNDER THE TENDER OPTION IN BRAZIL
AND SELECTED FEED-IN TARIFF MARKETS (USD/MWh)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
- 40%
decrease
74.6
75.7
96.9
104.3
108.6
108.8
111.8
115
121.7
136
164.6
Brazil (tender)
India
-
Gujarat
Turkey
Germany
France
Spain
China
-
Shandong
Slovakia
Canada
Brazil (PROINFA)
South Africa
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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GLOBAL LARGE-SCALE PV PIPELINE, SEPTEMBER 2011
(MW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Commissioned capacity includes values only up to 2010 and does not include
commissioned capacities in 2011.
3,529
1,828
2,785
8,110
10,289
674
838
1,123
1,284
1,716
1,963
2,492
2,729
3,039
4,702
10,541
14,122
Greece
Korea (Republic)
Australia
Canada
Czech Republic
France
India
Germany
Italy
Spain
China
United States
Commissioned
Financing secured / under construction
Permitted
Announced / planning begun
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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GLOBAL STEG PIPELINE, SEPTEMBER 2011 (MW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
755
513
1,481
897
493
2,956
854
771
610
2,289
5,820
109
120
136
145
200
350
390
400
905
1,013
1,146
5,017
10,187
United Arab Emirates
Egypt
Italy
Morocco
Jordan
South Africa
Israel
Namibia
Australia
China
India
Spain
United States
Commissioned
Financing secured / under construction
Permitted
Announced / planning begun
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
50
100
150
200
Coupon
on
longest
Saudi
bonds
IRR OF GULF PV PROJECTS VS OIL PRICE
(%)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Assumes PV project can be built for $3.14/W, capacity factor 20%, 1% capex/year O&M
and 0.7%/year degradation , all oil replaced would have been burned in a plant with a heat rate
of 10.85Btu/kWh. Instead it is sold at market price which changes linearly to 2030
Saudi Arabia
generates 57% of
electricity from oil
Replacing 5% of
this per year would
be a 3.3GW PV
market
2030 Oil Price($/barrel)
Build PV
Burn oil
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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ASSET FINANCING FOR NEW BUILD CLEAN ENERGY
ASSETS IN THE MIDDLE EAST, 2004–10 ($BN)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Includes estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes North Africa.
0.3
0.1
1.3
0.8
1.2
2.2
3.1
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Other renewables
Solar
Wind
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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GLOBAL PV INSTALLATIONS (MW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
This graph has been removed due to commercial sensitivity
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
kWh/kW/year
2015
LCOE
Average residential power price
Japan
Spain
Germany
Denmark
France
Greece
Netherlands
Portugal
UK
Slovakia
South Korea
US
excl. CA
China
South Africa
10GW
50GW
Residential
power market
Hawaii
Italy
Turkey
$/kWh
RESIDENTIAL PV PRICE PARITY
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: LCOE based on 6% weighted average cost of capital, 0.7%/year module
degradation, 1% capex as O&M annually. CA is California.
2010
LCOE
Average residential power price
More sun
CA
CA
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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0.1
1
10
100
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
THE PV MODULE EXPERIENCE CURVE, 1976–2010 (USD/W)
Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Notes: Inflation adjustment using US PPI; P. Maycock’s data is for crystalline silicon
modules; R
2
of c-Si regression = 0.94, R
2
of FSLR regression = 0.98
$/W
(log)
MW (log)
1976
1985
2003
historic prices
experience curve
2010
Chinese c-Si module prices
2006
First Solar thin-film module cost
Thin-film experience curve
2010
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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GLOBAL PV MODULE SUPPLY/ DEMAND SUMMARY (GW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
This graph has been removed due to commercial sensitivity
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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UTILITY SCALE PV SYSTEM PRICE FORECAST (USD/W)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Module price derived from experience curve + margin; system price in markets
with cost-based, rather than value-based pricing such as Germany
This graph has been removed due to commercial sensitivity
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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THE LEVELISED COST OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
TECHNOLOGIES IN AUSTRALIA (REAL 2010 AUD/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Prices are depicted in real 2010 AUD so that relative comparisons of technology
costs can be easily made.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2011
2015
2020
2011
2015
2020
2011
2015
2020
2011
2015
2020
2011
2015
2020
2011
2015
2020
Wind
Large
-
scale PV
STEG
Biomass
Landfill Gas
Geothermal
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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FORECAST ANNUAL BUILD OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
PLANT (MW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Landfill gas
Biomass
Geothermal
STEG
Large
-
scale PV
Wind
Pre
-
committed
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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LCOE PROJECTIONS FOR AUSTRALIA (REAL 2010
AUD/MWH) – HYPOTHETICAL CEFC FUNDING
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Note: Prices are depicted in real 2010 AUD so that relative comparisons of technology
costs can be easily made.
This graph has been removed due to commercial sensitivity
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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FORECAST ANNUAL BUILD OF RENEWABLE GENERATION
PLANT (MW) - CEFC
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
This graph has been removed due to commercial sensitivity
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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This graph has been removed due to commercial sensitivity
LARGE-SCALE RENEWABLE CAPACITY AND GENERATION
IN AUSTRALIA, 2010 AND 2020 (GW)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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LRET
CARBON PRICING WILL DRIVE THE SHIFT TO
RENEWABLES (AUD/MWH)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Intelligent Energy
Systems
Note: Prices in real 2010 AUD. NEM average wholesale power price assuming the
introduction of an emissions trading scheme with a fixed AUD 23/t price from 2012
transitioning to a floating price from 2015 with a 5% reduction target.
Wholesale
power price
LCOE of
Wind
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2011
2014
2017
2020
2023
2026
2029
Carbon
Kobad Bhavnagri, Large-scale solar project deployment internationally
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Kobad Bhavnagri, kbhavnagri@bloomberg.net