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European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
513567



Date:

15/05/2007

Organisation Code:

DLR

Classif
ication:

confidential

Version:

0.
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Page:


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REORIENT


Implement
ing

Change in
the

European

Railway System



Deliverable
D
7
.1
, Version
0.
2


Comprehensive Welfare Analysis



European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
513567

Organis
ation Code:

DLR

Classification:

c
onfidential

Version:

0.
2

Date:

15/05/2007


Reference:

SENTENCEDEBONAIR_BAD35283
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REORIENT WP
7

Deliverable
D7
.1, Version
0
.
2

Comprehensive Welfare Analysis


Projec
t acronym:

Project full title:

Project number:

Contract number:

To:

Duration:

REORIENT

REORIENT, “Implement
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REORIENT Contractors:


ISD

DEM

DLR

T
Ø
I

NU

UOB

UMD

Ingeniería de Sistemas p
ara la Defensa de España, S.A.

Demis

B.V.

Deutsche
s

Zentrum für Luft
-
u
nd
-
Raumfahrt

e.V.

Institute of Transport Economics

Napier University

University of Bologna

University of Marylan
d

E

NL

D

N

UK

I

USA




European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
513567

Organis
ation Code:

DLR

Classification:

c
onfidential

Version:

0.
2

Date:

15/05/2007


Reference:

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i


Preface

Freight transport causes beside undeniable

benefits as e.g. economical welfare also societal
and e
n
vironmental pressure.


Transport on rail, and also intermodal transport, is widely conceived as environmentally and
societal friendly alternatives to road transport.
That is,

freight transportation
o
n railways
causes
fewer burdens

to the population at large
,

with respect to issues like exhaust emissions, risk of
accidents or noise.


Due to externalization of effects that emerge from transport to the whole society, like e.g.
emi
s
sions or fatalities fro
m accidents, the micro
-
economically best transport solution is rather
seldom the best choice for the whole society and env
i
ronment.


Additional difficulties in rail transport
c
ompromise its competitiveness against road haulage as
e.g. the lack of technical

interoperability, or different rules and charges to access the n
a
tional
railway networks.


However, new legislations for free access to rail networks and technical developments to
improve the
technical
interoperability and to support intermodality, as wel
l as new bus
i
ness
concepts in rail freight market, create new chances to capitalise on growth in general freight
transpo
r
tation by capturing market share from
long
-
distance road
transport.


REORIENT is a Concerted Action funded by the European Commission w
ithin the Sixth
Framework Programme that addresses Strategic Objective 3.3.1 “Research to Support the
European Transport Policy, Research Domain 3.1, Implementation of Change in the European
Railway Area".
The REORIENT project is examining the effects of t
he EU’s legislation on rail
interoperability, which is transforming the European rail freight industry from closed,
monopolistic, nationally
-
oriented businesses insulated from market realities into market players
where newcomers both from the rail and logi
stics industry can find new opportunities, and from
non
-
interoperable nationally
-
fragmented railway subsystems into an internationally integrated
pan
-
European system.


From a research perspective, these massive changes
creates
a host of challenges in moni
toring
and understanding how common legislation is transposed under diverse national political and
economic conditions, industry changes, and social support and opposition to the changes. From
a global perspective, these changes are taking place in the mid
st of a serious transformation of
the transport industry as a whole, and where old solutions rapidly are becoming obsolete.


The project is focusing on a trans
-
European transport corridor through eleven countries (called
the REORIENT Corridor) stretching f
rom Scandinavia to Greece, and is working toward three
main objectives:

Organisation Code:

DLR

European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
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Classification:

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Ve
rsion:

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Date:

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Page:

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Reference:




1.

Assessing and monitoring the progress toward the development of an integrated freight
railway system in the countries located along the REORIENT Corridor, explaining the
variation in
the status of interoperability across these countries, assessing the degree of
political and social support for improving interoperability in these countries, identifying
barriers to seamless rail freight transport through these countries, and recommending

ways to overcome the barriers.

2.

Identifying and assessing the market potential for new international rail freight transport
services through these countries.

3.

Evaluating the relevant internal and external effects that will result from implementing the
new s
ervices, including the effects on rail companies and shippers, and the effects that
bear on the whole society and the environment.



As shown in the figure below, the technical part of the project is divided into eight work

packages, which are grouped into

three sets, roughly corresponding to the three main
objectives specified above (although much of the work in Work

P
ackage 5 is related to the first
main objective).


This report documents the work performed in Work

P
ackage 7 (WP7
)


Evaluation scheme


t
hat
addresses the third
of REORIENT’s main objectives
, thus methods for the evaluation of the

strategies for seamless trans
-
E
uropean rail freight services are developed and applied
.


As can be seen in the figure below, work package 7 used the findings of
the previous work
packages, in particular from work package 1 (data collection) as well as from the network
modelling (a common effort of WP 4, 5 and 6), for its work.













Figure
1
:
Schematic overview of work packages and
relationships in the project REORIENT

WP4
Corridor
analyses
WP5
Barrier
analyses
WP6
Strategies for
matching
supply with
demand
REORIENT
Business Case
WP
8
REORIENT
Knowledge
Base
WP7
Policy
assessment
Assessment of Status
WP1
Data collection
WP2
Assessment of
interoperability status
WP3
Social support for
interoperability
Evaluation
WP4
Corridor
analyses
WP5
Barrier
analyses
WP6
Strategies for
matching
supply with
demand
REORIENT
Business Case
WP
8
REORIENT
Knowledge
Base
WP7
Policy
assessment
Assessment of Status
WP1
Data collection
WP2
Assessment of
interoperability status
WP3
Social support for
interoperability
Evaluation

European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
513567

Organis
ation Code:

DLR

Classification:

c
onfidential

Version:

0.
2

Date:

15/05/2007


Reference:

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iii


This report
was

prepared by the REORIENT Consortium, which consists of seven partners and
sixteen subcontractors, representing research institutes, private companies, rail organizations,
and universities in fourteen Eu
ropean countries and the United States.

WP
7
, for which this report is the main result,
was

led by
the Institute of Transport Research of
German Aerospace Center (
DLR

e.V.).



For more information about this document, please contact:


Andreas Lischke


Ralf

Hedel


German Aerospace Center (DLR)

Institute for Transport Research

Rutherfordstraße 2

12489 Berlin

German Aerospace Center (DLR)

Institute for Transport Research

Rutherfordstraße 2

12489 Berlin



Tel.: ++49

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Further information about the REORIENT project is available on the project’s Website:
ht
tps://www.reorient.org.uk/

.


Organisation Code:

DLR

European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
513567



Classification:

confidential

Ve
rsion:

0.2

Date:

15/05/2007


Page:

iv

Reference:



Executive Summary

One objective of the European Commission (EC) is to improve the quality of international rail
freight transport in order to make it more competitive with road transport. It should contribute to
the balancin
g of the different modes so as to enable an efficient and cost
-
effective use of the
overall transport system. This has led to the promotion of interoperable rail freight transport by
the Commission in order to remove the obstacles currently hindering the f
urther development
and use of this mode. The enactment of several Directives has been the most important tool
used by the Commission in order to open the European rail market to competition and
fundamentally reform the rail transport system in the EU.


REO
RIENT is a project within the EC’s Sixth Framework that has several stated objectives.
Within WP 7, a comprehensive set of methods
was

developed and applied in order to
forecast
and
evaluate strategies for seamless trans
-
European rail freight transport

con
cerning their
economic viability and effects on the transport industry, the environment as well as on the
society at large.


This set of methods involved the following steps:



Characterisation of the operational and service strategies,



Assessment of implica
tions on transport demand



Assessment of socio
-
economic and environmental impacts



Assessment of economic viability of proposed business cases



Qualitative and quantitative evaluation
.



The results of the work of WP 7 are a) the methodology that can be appli
ed for the analysis and
evaluation of strategies in the transport sector and b) the findings of the application of the
evaluation method to the identified operational and service strategies.


The analytical results show that without a doubt intermodal tran
sport offers not only promising
from a micro
-
economic perspective, it is, when compared to long
-
distance road haulage a
competitive and sustainable transport mode and thus also the favourable option for the
population and the environment.


In addition to t
hat, the infrastructure charging schemes
that are applied in the corridor countries
are analysed

concerning their efficacy to influence the mode split towards sustainable transport
modes

and thus contribute to national welfare
. For this part of the analyse
s, a specific tool
was

developed.

This analysis reveals clearly that marginal pricing for infrastructure access supports
considerably more national welfare than average (total) pricing systems.




European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
513567

Organis
ation Code:

DLR

Classification:

c
onfidential

Version:

0.
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Date:

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5


Document Information

Document title

Progress Toward Rail I
nteroperability in Countries Along the
REORIENT Corridor: An Analysis of Status


Version

0.
2

Date

15
/
0
5
/
200
7

Classification

Confidential

Workpackage

2

Organization Code

DLR


Organisation Code:

DLR

European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
513567



Classification:

confidential

Ve
rsion:

0.2

Date:

15/05/2007


Page:

6

Reference:



Revision Log Book

Edition/Revision

Date

Modified Pages

Observations

0.1

1
0
/05
/07


Document creation



Chapter 6
revised











Document Distribution

To/cc

Code

Organisation

Name

To

EC

European Commission

Dr. Theodor Schlickmann

cc.

ISD

Isdefe

Mario Moya

cc.

N/A

REORIENT Consortium

N/A

cc.




cc.





Review and Appro
val of the Document

Organisation Responsible for
Review

Reference of comment documents

Date

Prof. Marcus Wigan,
NU

Review of D
7
.1
, version 0.5

Objective:
15/05/2007

Scientific Executive Committee

Version 1.0 a
pproved

Objective:
15/05/2007

Organisation
Responsible for
Approval

Name of person approving the
document

Date

European Commission

Dr. Theodor Schlickmann



European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
513567

Organis
ation Code:

DLR

Classification:

c
onfidential

Version:

0.
2

Date:

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Table of Contents

1.

INTRODUCTION TO WORK

PACKAGE 7

................................
................................
.....
11

2.

ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

FOR WORK PACKAGE 7

................................
...............
13

3.

OPERATIONAL AND SERV
ICE STRATEGIES TO SU
PPORT SEAMLESS RAIL
FREIGHT TRANSPORT

................................
................................
................................
15

3.1.

Operational strategies

................................
................................
..........................
16

3.2.

Service strategies

................................
................................
................................
.
16

3.3.

Combinations of operational

and service strategies

................................
..............
23

3.4.

Simulation of scenarios in the network modelling platform

................................
....
24

3.4.1.

Results from the network mod
elling platform

................................
...........
25

4.

ASSESSMENT OF SOCIO
-
ECONOMIC AND ENVIRON
MENTAL IMPACTS

...............
29

4.1.

Implications on exhaust emissions and energ
y consumption

................................
30

4.2.

Implications on risk of accidents

................................
................................
...........
34

4.2.1.

Calculation of external costs

................................
................................
....
37

4.3.

GIS
-
based analysis of localized effects

................................
................................
40

4.3.1.

Business case element 1

................................
................................
.........
46

4.3.2.

Busi
ness case element 2

................................
................................
.........
49

4.3.3.

Business case element 3

................................
................................
.........
51

4.3.4.

Business case element 4

................................
................................
.........
55

5.

ASSESSMENT OF COSTS
AND BENEFITS TO BUSI
NESSES

................................
...
57

5.1.

Considerations on operational strategy 2

................................
.............................
57

5.1.1.

Preconditions of success

................................
................................
.........
57

5.1.2.

Effects on the railway undertakings

................................
.........................
59

5.1.3.

Effects on the infrastructure manager

................................
......................
61

5.1.4.

Further suggestions, possibilities and limitations

................................
.....
63

5.2.

Considerations on operational strategy 4

................................
.............................
64

5.2.1.

Preconditions of success

................................
................................
.........
64

5.2.2.

Effects on the railway undertakings

................................
.........................
65

5.2.3.

Effects on the infrastructure manager

................................
......................
67

5.2.4.

Further suggestions, possibilities and limitations

................................
.....
69

5.3.

Consideration
s on the business case elements:

................................
...................
70

5.3.1.

Main dependencies

................................
................................
.................
70

5.3.2.

SWOT analyse from the viewpoint of the railway undertakin
g and
intermodal operator

................................
................................
.................
70

Organisation Code:

DLR

European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
513567



Classification:

confidential

Ve
rsion:

0.2

Date:

15/05/2007


Page:

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Reference:



5.3.3.

Weak points and threats from the viewpoint of the shipper

......................
73

5.3.4.

Interrelation with manag
ement of infrastructure and operational
scenarios

................................
................................
................................
.
74

5.4.

Calculation of internal costs

................................
................................
..................
77

5.4.1.

Base data for internal cost ca
lculations

................................
...................
78

5.4.2.

Base cases

................................
................................
..............................
80

5.4.3.

Internal costs of Scenario 2

................................
................................
.....
91

5.4.4.

Internal costs of Scenario 4

................................
................................
.....
93

5.4.5.

Summary of internal cost calculations

................................
.....................
96

6.

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

OF INFR
ASTRUCTURE CHARGING
SCHEMES

.............
98

6.1.

Generalities on infrastructure charging schemes

................................
..................
98

6.2.

Introduction to the analysis

................................
................................
...................
99

6.3.

Overview of the railways infrastructure charging systems and structure of
railway companies in Europe

................................
................................
................
99

6.4.

Description of th
e general structure of the model

................................
................

109

6.5.

Description of the data used for calibration of the model

................................
....

110

6.6.

Set
-
up of the model

scenarios

................................
................................
............

113

6.7.

Results of the model simulations

................................
................................
........

113

6.8.

Main conclusions

................................
................................
................................

116

7.

CONCLUSIVE EVALUATIO
N OF STRATEGIES

................................
.........................

117

7.1.

Qualitative assessment of employment effects

................................
...................

121

8.

REFERENCE
S

................................
................................
................................
............

122

9.

ANNEX I: MATHEMATICA
L FORUMALTION OF THE

INFRASTRUCTURE
CHARGING ASSESSMENT
MODEL

................................
................................
...........

125


European Commission

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Contract :
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ACRONYMS

Acronym

Meaning

BC:

Reorient business case: differe
nt business concepts that are examined under
operational/policy scenario combinations;

CBA:

Cost
-
benefit analysis, the analysis of all costs compared to all incomes of an
economic decision, usually over more years (e.g. 10 years, the desired return
time);

CER

Community of European Railway and Infrastructure Companies

CFC

Containers on flat (rail)cars;

EC

European Commission

EIM

European Rail Infrastructure Managers

ERFA

European Rail Freight Association

EU

European Union

FCL:

Full (rail)carload; a
loading and commercial unit where railcars are used for a
single type of good, that is transported to a given destination, without any fu
r
ther
division;

IM:

Infrastructure manager, the actor of the railway market that possess rail
infr
a
structure capacity

and sales it to customers on the liberalised market;

MC:

Marginal costs, the unit costs of an additional service unit;

NPV:

Net present value, the discounted value of nominal currency values from di
f
ferent
years.

NUTS:

Nomenclature des unités territo
riales statistiques
; standard for hierarchical
geographical referencing the administrative divisions of European countries for
statistical purposes

SBFC:

Swap bodies on flat (rail)cars;

SFC:

Semi
-
trailers on flat (rail)cars;

SWOT:

strengths, weaknesses,

opportunities and threats

TC:

Total costs, the value that covers all the expenses of the company;

TEN
-
T

Trans
-
European Transport Network

TSI

Technical Specifications for Interoperability

UIC

International Union of Railways

UNECE

United Nations Econo
mic Commission for Europe

UIRR

International Union of combined Road
-
Rail transport companies

VOT:

Value of time in a defined currency. Depends on many factors like type and
amount of waiting personnel or goods, production type, rental charges, etc.

WP:

Work Package

WTP:

Willingness to pay, the decision and ability of the use
r of a service to pay its price

Organisation Code:

DLR

European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
513567



Classification:

confidential

Ve
rsion:

0.2

Date:

15/05/2007


Page:

10

Reference:




Acknowledgement


As leader of the work package 7, we express our thankfulness to all the persons who
contributed to this work:


Jenni Eckhardt




(V
TT)

Olga Ivanova





(TML)

Pekka Leviäkangas



(VTT)

Jukka Räsänen





(VTT)

Péter Rónai





(BUT)

Hanne Samstad





(TOI)

Karel Spitaels





(TML)

Colin Vance





(DLR / RWI Essen)

Bruno va
n Zeebroeck




(TML)


Andreas Lischke and Ralf Hedel, Berlin 2
007
.



European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
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ation Code:

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1.

INTRODUCTION TO WORK

PACKAGE
7


The REORIENT project is examining the process of transforming the European railways from
non
-
interoperable nationally fragmented railway subsystems into an internationally integrated
pan
-
European system as a consequenc
e of the EC interoperability legislation. By so doing, it
is supporting the EU policy of balancing modal split between road and rail freight transport. It
is doing this by focusing on a transport corridor through eleven countries (called the
REORIENT Corri
dor) stretching from Scandinavia to Greece, and working toward three
major objectives:

1.

Assessing and monitoring the progress toward the development of an integrated
freight railway system in the countries located along the REORIENT Corridor,
explaining the

variation in the status of interoperability across these countries,
assessing the degree of political and social support for improving interoperability in
these countries, identifying barriers to seamless rail freight transport through these
countries, an
d recommending ways to overcome the barriers.

2.

Identifying and assessing the market potential for new international rail freight
transport services through these countries.

3.

Evaluating the relevant internal and external effects that will result from implemen
ting
the new services, including the effects on rail companies and shippers, and the
effects that bear on the whole society and the environment.


Work Package
7

focuses

on the
third

of these objectives. In particular, it is involved with the
following tas
ks:



Characterisation of the operational and service strategies,



Assessment of implications on transport demand,



Assessment of socio
-
economic and environmental impacts,



Assessment of economic viability of proposed
strategies

and



Qualitative and quantitative

evaluation.


The remainder of the report is organized as follows:



Chapter 2 describes the analytical framework that was developed in
WP 7 to derive
conclusions on the desirability of the proposed strategies.



Chapter 3 characterises the operational and se
rvice
strategies

that were identified
within the REORIENT to be most supporting for mode shift towards rail. This
characterisation
contains a description on the strategies and
also the assessment of
implications on the transport demand.



Chapter 4 forecasts

the impacts

of the proposed strategies

on the society and the
environment.



Chapter 5
is devoted to the analysis of economic viability, and an analysis of
strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) of the proposed strategies.

Organisation Code:

DLR

European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
513567



Classification:

confidential

Ve
rsion:

0.2

Date:

15/05/2007


Page:

12

Reference:





Chapter 6 analyse
s the existing

strategies of rail

infrastructure
funding

schemes
in the
REORIENT
corridor countries
concerning
their
contribution to

national

welfare.



Chapter 7

summaries the results of the preceding analyses and
presents

conclusions
on the desirability
of

each of
the
proposed
strategies.


Chapters 4 to 6

first present first the methodological approach and subsequently the results
of its application.


The document has one annex that presents the mathematical formulation of the model to
assess the infrastruc
ture funding scheme.


European Commission

Sixth Framework Programme


Contract :
513567

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ation Code:

DLR

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c
onfidential

Version:

0.
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Date:

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2.

ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK

FOR WORK PACKAGE
7


The REORIENT consortium identified and developed by means of m
arket research
a)
operational strategies
that will support seamless rail freight transport as well as b)
business
models

(also refer
red to as service strategies)
that allow railway
undertakings
or intermodal
operators to capitalise on the expected growth in rail based freight transport. Subsequently,
the implementation of these strategies were simulated in a network model framework tha
t
was developed by the project partner UMD in close cooperation with WP 4
-
6,

in order to
forecast implications on the transport demand, mode split and transport times.


Workpackage 7 used the description of the strategies as well as the results from the ne
twork
modelling to elaborate on the effects for specific stakeholder categorie
s
:



Population at large
and

along the (competitive) corridors
,




Shippers
,



Railway Undertakings / Intermodal operators
,



Infrastructure Managers
.

Moreover
, impacts on the
e
nvironmen
t are elaborated.


Thus, WP 7 analysed internal and external effects that can be expected from implementation
of the strategies. Externalities have to be handled separately, as a result of two reasons: (1)
they do not a
p
pear within business billing procedu
res of interested actors, and are therefore
usually not part of business decision making elements, and (2) thanks to the relatively high
unit costs, they can be very high in absolute values, and can therefore suppress and
ma
r
ginalise all other economical e
ffects. In some cases of investments,
already
the savings
on environmental or societal costs as a result of a m
o
dal split change between rail and road
make the investment profitable on macro
-
economic level.


In order to accomplish the needs of a comprehens
ive analysis,
the
analytical framework is
structured

into

the following

components:



WP 7.0:

Identification and c
haracterisation of the ope
rational and
service strategies
,



WP 7.1
/ WP 7.2:


Assessment of i
mplications on transport demand
,



WP 7.1:




Assessm
ent of socio
-
economic and environmental impacts
,




WP 7.2





A
ssessment of

costs and benefits to businesses
,



WP 7.3:




Qualitati
ve and quantitative evaluation.


In addition to that, WP 7.2 analysed the infrastructure charging schemes in the corridor
cou
ntries regarding their efficacy to influence mode split in freight transportation towards
more sustainable transport modes and thus potential to maximise welfare.

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The methods that were applied for the analyses and the evaluation are expla
ined in detail in

chapters
4

to7
.


The work is
mainly
based on findings of the project REORIENT itself as well as of the results
of r
e
cent European research projects. Exemplarily, the definition of the business cases and
the GIS
-
data that describes the rail
-

and road netwo
rk or nature protection areas were
provided by partners of the pr
o
ject REORIENT
. Please refer to the d
eliverable
s

1.1
from WP
1

for detailed source defini
tions (REORIENT 2007a)
.


The assessment of socio
-
economic impacts is mainly done on the base of the n
etwork
modelling results, since the society is interested in changes on macro level (emissions, risk
of accidents). The analysis of micro
-
economic viability of the strategies is done on dis
-
aggregated level, e.g. it is elaborated how intermodal operators c
an benefit from
one journey

of a proposed train.



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3.

OPERATIONAL
AND
SERVICE
STRATEGIES

TO SUPPORT SEAMLESS
RAIL FREIGHT TRANSPO
RT


U
nder the
term
strategy

we understand a concrete measure that supports rail freight
transport.
A
scenario

is a description o
f a state of the transport network and operations
under the assumption that strategies or combinations of strategies are not/partly/fully
implemented.


The description of the operational and service
strategies

were identified and
defined by the
REORIENT co
nsortium and described by the
project partners T
Ø
I (Ludvigsen 2006) and
UMD (Mahmassani 2006)
. Subsequently,
the network model platform
was

set up in WP 5 to
sim
u
late

them
.


Within the project REORIENT, two different types of
strategies and consequently
sc
enarios
were defined by the consortium (Mahmassani 2006):

1. operational scenarios and

2. service scenarios.


The fi
r
st category
t
ak
es

into account
the
changes in the railway infrastructure as e.g. by the
implementation of the
Technical Specifications of
Interoperability (
TSI
)
, upgrade of railway
infrastructure or i
m
provements of the operations due to international agreements. They are
expected to affect the whole transport ne
t
work and thus the society at large as well as the
environment.


The second categ
ory comprises strategies that are expected to be promising business
mo
d
els for railway undertakings or intermodal operators that want to extend their operation.
The implementation of such strategies will not have impacts to the society at large or to the
e
nv
i
ronment with the same extent like the first category. However, it is necessary to study
to
what extend such

transport services are favourable against
long
-
distance road

haulage.
There are in following r
e
ferred to as business case elements 1 to 4 or
also

trains 1 to 4.


In addition to these strategies and scenarios, the influence of national infrastructure funding
strategies

on transport behaviour and national welfare was analysed. These strategies are
considerably
different concerning implementation

and
implications and were therefore not
modelled within the network modelling platform. A special model
was

developed to
accomplish a comparative analysis of the infrastructure funding schemes.
The results are
presented in detail in chapter 6
; the mathematical

formulation of the model is presented in
Annex I (chapter 9)
.



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3.1.

Operational
strategies


After a process of identification and selection, the REORIENT consortium decided to
elab
o
rate on two operational
strategies

in
-
depth
(
Ludvigsen 2006
)
:



Gradual increase

of commercial speed in Poland

from 22 km/h to 40 km/h
(also referred to as S 2)
and



Improvement of border crossing procedures

(also referred to as S4)
.


Please refer for a description of
both
operational
strategies

to Ludvigsen (2006).

3.2.

Service
strategies


The service
strategies

were selected and defined on the base of market research by the
consortium
(
Ludvigsen 2006
)
. Four business case elements (BC) were ide
n
tified. They
propose

the
introduction

of
four
new

trains
,

the
i
r routes are p
resented in
Figure
2

and
Figure
3
.
In the present report, the label
business case

(1


4) or
train

(1


4) are used
synonymously.



Business cases 2, 3 4 are equipped as intermodal trains, business case 1 is dedicated to the

transport of paper pulp and paper rolls.
Please refer for a description of these
four

operational
strategies

to Ludvigsen (2006).

In the following, only the most important
characteristics for the trains are presented: type of train, route and envisaged lo
ad.



BC 1:

type.

block train with full car load (FC)

route:

Halsberg


Trelleborg


Swinoujscie


Vienna/Bratislava


Budapest


load:

dedicated to movement of paper rolls paper pulp to mills.


BC 2:

type:

shuttle train with semi trailer on flat cars (SF
C)

route:

(Trelleborg)


Swinoujscie


Vienna/Bratislava

load:

high value, high margin time sensitive cargo


BC 3:

mixed trai
n with containers on flatcars, CFC,
FC, SFC o
r

swap bodies on flat cars
(
SBFC
)
;

route: Gdansk/Gdynia


Bratislava/Vienna


Bud
apest


Beograd


Thessalonica

load: high value, high margin time sensitive cargo


BC 4:

mixed shuttle train with CFC, SFC or SBFC


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route: Bratislava/Budapest


Buchares
t



Constantia seaport;

load: high value freight


The proposed services compete intra
modal against other rail routes and against
long
-
distance
road hau
l
age (BC 1, 2, 3). BC 4 competes against
long
-
distance road

haulage as
well as transport on water on the river D
a
nube.
In the following,
a comparison of transporting
the goods over the propo
sed train routes with the
long
-
distance road haulage

is carried out.


Three levels of implementation
were defined that can be

distinguished according to their
number of loading and unloading possibilities:



Level 1 (conservative):

Harbours

(including Thessa
loniki), Vienna, Bratislava,
Budapest, Beograd are the only loading and unloading points to the proposed
services.



Level 2 (moderate):

All locations from level 1 plus Sofia,
Bucharest
, and Poznan



Level 3 (sophisticated):

All locations from level 2 plus Pra
gue, Salzburg, Ljubljana,
Zagreb, Lodz and Arad.



Train 2 follows between Swinoujscie and Vienna/Bratislava exactly the same route as t
rain 1.
As can be seen in
Figure
2
, the rail route leads over Poland and Slovakia, while the
c
ompetitive rail or road routes lead over Denmark and Germany.


The feasibility and economic viability of the proposed service scenarios depend considerably
from the characteristics of the rail route. The characteristics of the proposed routes have
been stu
died regarding the most critical parameters among them: nu
mber of tracks,
electrification
, max. speed, signalling system

and

max. train length. The results of this study
were summarised in route characteristics diagrams (
Figure
4
,

Figure
5

and
Figure
6
).


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Figure
2
:
Routes of train 1 and
2
, competitive routes (road and rail) and population de
n
sity. Source:
(
CIESIN 2007
), (
ESRI
2007
)
,
(
REORIENT 2007
a
)
.




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Figure
3
: Routes of train 3 and 4
,

competitive long
-
distance road corridors and population density.
Source:
(
CIESIN 2007
)
,
(
ESRI 2007
)
,
(
REORIENT 2007
a
)
.
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Figure
4
: Route characteristics overview for train 1.


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Figure
5
: Route characteristics overview for train 3

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Figure
6
: Route characteristics overview for train

4

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3.3.

Combinations of operational and

service
strategies


All identified scenarios and
possible
combinations work with assumptions (like a
s
sumed
infrastructure investments, faster border crossing procedures, etc.). The workout of these
assumptions and their dependencies are examined in the me
thodological chapter. In case
the assumptions do work, the changes are expected to deliver an increased traffic need, a
time sparing for the customer, etc. These effects, possible business adva
n
tages are than
identified.


Scenario combinations and BC eleme
nts can be mixed according to an “each
-
by
-
each”
alg
o
rithm, like S
2
B
C
1, S
2
1B
C
2, … , S4B4. When doing so,
8

couples could appear,
whereas

some
are

not appropriate
for

the analysis.


Scenario

B
C
1

B
C
2

B
C
3

B
C
4

Increase of
commercial speed
in Poland (S 2)

anal
ysed

analysed

analysed

Not appropriate

Improvement of
border crossing
procedures (S 4)

Not appropriate

analysed

Not appropriate

analysed

Table
1
: Combinations of operational scenarios and business case el
e
ments

The further analyse
d
eleven

scenario
-
BC combinations are: S2B
C
1; S2B
C
2; S2B
C
3;
S4B
C
2; S4B
C
4. Methodological analysis of these is carried out in chapter 2, numerical
results of the analysis is given in chapter 3.


The not appropriate scenario


BC combinations are:


S2B
C
4: Sc
enario S2 assumes the Polish infrastructure improvement (freight shipment speed
increase), while B4 business case focuses on a different Middle
-
European section
(Brat
i
slava


Constantia). These two orientations
have

no common points, B4 case is only
indire
ctly affected by S2 developments and therefore this combination is not appr
o
priate.


S4B
C
1: In order to make the reduction of border waiting time profitable, a high value, time
sensitive good is needed, that’s WTP is high enough to finance the several hour

saving. As
stated in the case of S1B1, paper pulp and paper rolls do not match this category.


S4B
C
3: The Gdansk


Thessalonica connection can be established with one border
,
whereas one
crossing
is an
external border of the EU. Therefore the efficiency o
f EU
-
based
improv
e
ment of the procedures may reach less. As procedures at the external borders of the
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EU do not only depend on measures within the union, modelling of these borders would lead
to si
g
nificant inconsistency.


The not appropriate
operational
s
cenario


BC combinations are not to be analysed later.
The focus of the analysis will be the “working” set of combinations, where probability of
realisation will determine the depth of evaluation.


In addition to that, the train concepts are evaluated und
er baseline conditions, this is the
scenario in which infrastructure or border crossing conditions remain unchanged.


3.4.

Simulation of scenarios

in the network modelling platform


The operational and service scenarios were simulated in the network modelling p
latform
which was a joint activity of WP 4, 5 and 6.
A detailed description of the platform

is presented
in REORIENT (2007b
). In a mesoscopic economic structure, shipments are within the
REORIENT
-
corridor are generated and according to shipment requirement
s allocated to the
transport modes “intermodal” and “truck
-
only


transport
. Intermodal transport is served partly
by freight trains and partly by truck transport.
Since the focus of the project REORIENT is to
elaborate on intermodal strategies, intermodal
transport is modelled on the present rail and
road network. Though, truck
-
only transport is modelled on virtual links between all origin
-
destination
-
relations

on NUTS 2 level.


For the assessment of external effects, WP 7 calculated from the network model

results
statistics on the freight performance [tkm] in NUTS 2 regions.


The denomination of the
modelled
scenarios and there
constitu
ent parts are presented in
Table
2



Scenario
-
ID

Explanation

1

"Base case"

2

Trains 1
-
4 in op
e
ration, but no improvements in i
nfrastructure or border
crossings

9

Trains 1
-
4 in operation
,
best
border

crossings
procedures
, infrastructure
improved

11

Train 1 in operation, best border crossing procedures, infrastructure improved

12

Train 2 in opera
tion, best border crossing procedures, infrastructure improved

13

Train 3 in operation, best border crossing procedures, infrastructure improved

14

Train 4 in operation, best border crossing procedures, infrastructure improved

15

Train 2

and
3 in operat
ion, best border crossing procedures, infrastructure
improved

Table
2
: Network modelling scenarios
, scenario
-
ID and short explanation
.


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As can be seen in
Table
2
, the trains are both: individually as well a
s jointly modelled under
varying infrastructure and border crossing conditions.


3.4.1.

Results from the network modelling platform

The operational and service scenarios
as listed in
Table
2

have been simulated in the
network modelling p
latform.
The results of this analysis are the basis for further elaborations
concerning emissions and risk of accidents. Since this information is also important input
data for the m
i
cro
-
economic evaluation of the scenarios, this work was done in cooperati
on
with WP 7.2.



In the following, the results from the network model are analysed and presented from macro
pe
r
spective.
It is outside of the scope of this report to document the results with all possible
dimensions; therefore the most important indicator
s must be selected: total freight flows and
modal
split, freight
-
performance [t
-
km]

and node delays [minutes]
. In addition to that, the
developments of the load factors are presented.



Transport demand expressed as
freight flow
: amount of freight [tons] t
hat is carried between
two regions within a ce
r
tain period of time [e.g. week, year], independently from the distance
between the two regions. This indicator reveals the relationship between production and
consumption b
e
tween two regions. Common units of t
his indicator are [tons per week] or
[tons per year].


Freight performance
: the product of the freight that is shipped between two regions [unit:
tons] and the distance vehicles travelled between two regions in o
r
der to perform the
transport of the whole f
reight. The unit of this indicator is [ton
-
km] for all transport modes.


Transport time
: The time that shipments need to be transported from origin to destination is
crit
i
cal for the shipper’s decision to choose a transport mode. Further, the time that is

needed
for transport also determines the extent of costs for the forwarding companies, since many
cost co
m
ponents are time dependent (e.g. costs for rolling stock, staff). Likewise for
infrastructure ma
n
agers, low transport times correlate with higher cap
acities and more cost
efficient usage of their infr
a
structure. The change in transport time is mainly influenced by
delays in
network nodes

(classification yards, terminals), thus this aspect is analysed in
detail.


Table
3

shows

the forecasts of the network modelling platform concerning total freight flows,
and mode split.


Scenario

Mode

Weekly flow in tons

Total

Mode split

Scenario 01

intermodal

10288887.87

57616633

0.18

(Base case)

Truck
-
only

47327745.11


0.82

Scenario 02

in
termodal

9780755.29

57627880.2

0.17

(Train 1


4 in operatio
n, worst conditions)

Truck
-
only

47847124.86


0.83

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Scenario 09

intermodal

10953788.84

57649392.7

0.19

(Train 1


4 in operation
, best conditions
)

Truck
-
only

46695603.89


0.81

Scenario 11

interm
odal

11215632.75

57661818.1

0.19

(Train 1 in operation
, best conditions
)

Truck
-
only

46446185.35


0.81

Scenario 12

intermodal

11090195.35

57598034.2

0.19

(Train 2 in operation
, best conditions
)

Truck
-
only

46507838.83


0.81

Scenario 13

intermodal

1113959
2.68

57643244.1

0.19

(Train 3 in operation
, best conditions
)

Truck
-
only

46503651.46


0.81

Scenario 14

intermodal

11079183.17

57576170.8

0.19

(Train 4 in operation
, best conditions
)

Truck
-
only

46496987.64


0.81

Scenario 15

intermodal

10868675.78

5759139
3.5

0.19

(Train 2 and 3 in operation
, best
conditions
)

Truck
-
only

46722717.76


0.81

Table
3
: Weekly freight flows in tons and mode split.

Table
4

presents an overview of the intermodal freight flows [net
ton*km] for the scenarios
with
additional
trains in operation under best infrastructure and border crossing conditions.
This table reveals that all implementation scenarios are favourable against the base case
(Scenario 01).


Country

Scenario 01


Scenario
09


Scenario 11


Scenario 12


Scenario 13


Scenario 14


Scenario 15


Austria

5,394.2

9,972.8

9,085.5

10,836.5

8,765.8

10,523.1

10,181.8

Bulgaria

153.1

292.9

262.6

237.6

1,384.4

236.1

299.3

Croatia

62.4

319.0

304.4

52.1

188.4

184.0

258.5

Czech
Republic

9,052.2

12,898.1

13,525.3

12,975.4

12,745.9

15,270.7

13,427.0

Finland

1,613.2

2,078.1

2,187.6

2,147.4

1,977.4

1,900.3

2,194.4

Germany

4,988.1

8,087.0

8,204.4

7,722.1

8,472.3

7,924.0

7,875.2

Greece

392.3

500.1

528.3

469.0

778.1

486.4

491.0

Hungary

4,927
.2

12,061.8

7,359.1

6,753.0

8,407.2

9,091.4

8,188.5

Macedonia

130.8

112.4

234.8

194.2

120.2

286.0

108.4

Norway

975.7

982.2

1,174.8

988.9

930.7

1,044.4

1,165.8

Poland

9,507.8

18,761.3

16,834.1

17,164.8

14,283.0

14,077.8

17,370.6

Romania

164.0

2,272.5

32
5.5

279.1

393.8

156.0

375.9

Serbia

182.2

536.4

262.2

207.3

3,635.1

229.6

428.1

Slovakia

2,991.2

5,353.8

5,909.0

5,725.0

5,902.7

6,175.5

5,008.0

Slovenia

796.8

1,549.1

1,563.3

1,038.9

1,306.8

1,391.2

1,382.9

Sweden

3,333.2

5,666.6

5,153.5

6,068.8

5,752.
5

5,559.9

4,812.2

Total:

44,664.3

81,444.1

72,914.2

72,860.2

75,044.4

74,536.4

73,567.6

Table
4
: Overview
of intermodal rail flows in
10³
net
-
tkm
.


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Table
5

shows the l
oad factors
in intermodal freight tran
sport
. This table focuses on the rail
part of the intermodal transport chain.


Country

Scen. 01

Scen. 09

Scen. 11

Scen. 12

Scen. 13

Scen. 14

Scen. 15

Max.

Austria

40.04

38.44

38.41

38.93

37.62

38.69

37.99

40.04

Bulgaria

40.86

40.60

42.36

42.10

32.89

39.7
8

41.10

42.36

Croatia

44.77

37.25

44.58

32.14

37.17

40.30

35.72

44.77

Czech
Republic

45.84

42.89

43.56

42.93

42.57

44.65

43.78

45.84

Finland

47.02

52.73

52.77

57.10

58.42

56.34

54.04

58.42

Germany

40.25

38.21

38.31

38.23

38.76

38.82

38.72

40.25

Greece

36.36

35.48

35.64

35.59

33.59

35.54

35.37

36.36

Hungary

37.77

36.00

37.86

37.66

36.89

36.73

36.33

37.86

Macedonia

41.34

35.72

39.98

39.39

38.45

40.73

35.30

41.34

Norway

38.47

39.16

38.25

38.41

38.39

38.36

38.39

39.16

Poland

41.94

41.07

47.45

40.98

40.
82

42.43

39.50

47.45

Romania

55.32

39.46

53.42

46.23

43.12

53.95

40.41

55.32

Serbia

37.20

34.95

39.42

37.62

32.18

37.26

36.97

39.42

Slovakia

42.95

42.50

43.70

41.99

42.52

42.72

44.08

44.08

Slovenia

36.39

35.09

35.57

36.36

34.98

34.55

36.91

36.91

Swede
n

37.78

39.97

38.61

40.74

39.95

37.63

36.03

40.74

Max.

55.32

52.73

53.42

57.10

58.42

56.34

54.04


Table
5
: Overview of load
-
factor in i
ntermodal transport
on rail cars

The following tables present the forecasted developments of no
de delays in terminals (
Table
6
) and classification yards (
Table
7
). Both results reveal that the upgrade of the railway
infrastructure in combination with the optimisation of the border crossing procedur
es speed
up the transport chain much more than the network utilisation of the additional proposed train

causes delays
. Thus the node delays are in the base case higher than in all other scenarios.


COUNTRY

Scen. 01

Scen. 09

Scen. 11

Scen. 12

Scen. 13

Scen.

14

Scen. 15

Austria

26958

26208

24634

25728

25320

26053

25273

Bulgaria

1289

1320

755

691

2101

613

1185

Czech Republic

42087

32349

34028

33339

33579

35959

33494

Finland

7660

7200

7130

6790

6782

6791

7293

Germany

17245

16604

16560

16631

16488

16466

165
12

Hungary

39170

38142

37210

34893

36196

37984

37558

Macedonia

892

811

597

485

645

670

417

Norway

9681

10028

8428

10006

10462

9951

9294

Poland

50029

41979

41718

40944

44798

45675

43611

Romania

3224

5352

999

1912

2204

2271

2460

Form. Serbia
and Monten
egro

1046

592

1109

1152

1266

1190

577

Slovakia

19864

15664

17313

17140

19172

17172

17019

Slovenia

7014

4805

4480

5497

4262

5035

51
61

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Reference:



Sweden

16998

17774

17117

16167

15065

14237

16294

Sum

243157

218828

212078

211375

218340

220067

216148

Table
6
: Node delays in terminals [minutes].

COUNTRY

Scen. 01

Scen. 09

Scen. 11

Scen. 12

Scen. 13

Scen. 14

Scen. 15

Austria

21
,
427

16
,
929

14
,
553

18
,
882

13
,
183

16
,
015

17
,
225

Bulgaria

393

716

1
,
656

1
,
735

476

1
,
668

554

Czech Republic

12
,
952

13
,
453

15
,
827

11
,
883

13
,
575

11
,
979

14
,
423

Finland

5
,
624

6
,
826

4
,
704

5
,
370

4
,
652

4
,
505

6
,
215

Germany

10
,
230

14
,
916

13
,
444

9
,
573

12
,
890

12
,
226

13
,
569

Greece

1
,
758

1
,
587

1
,
372

1
,
644

1
,
524

1
,
650

1
,
624

Hungary

19
,
171

13
,
027

16
,
813

12
,
279

16
,
033

13
,
775

17
,
100

Mace
donia

1
,
444

1
,
343

929

956

1
,
163

1
,
679

1
,
189

Norway

5
,
748

6
,
304

4
,
850

6
,
562

6
,
953

6
,
850

5
,
775

Poland

20
,
717

11
,
106

13
,
215

15
,
468

13
,
879

17
,
728

14
,
346

Romania

2
,
513

1
,
662

1
,
197

337

1
,
274

2
,
144

1
,
142

Form. Serbia
and
Montenegro

789

119

720

823

1,712

917

6
9

Slovakia

8,798

8,584

7,785

6,416

6,867

7,472

6,980

Slovenia

1,043

2,769

2,227

1,294

2,165

2,665

1
,
592

Sweden

12
,
092

11
,
699

12
,
039

10
,
402

10
,
311

9
,
366

10
,
273

Sum

124,699

111,040

111,331

103,624

106,657

110,639

112,076

Table
7
:

Node delays in classification yards [minutes].



European Commission

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ation Code:

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onfidential

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Reference:


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4.

ASSESSMENT OF SOCIO
-
ECONOMIC AND ENVIRON
MENTAL IMPACTS


This
part of the
work concentrates on the analysis of societal

and

environmental effects
which are largely externalized to the whole society and enviro
nment. Thus, the work
analyses, describes and quantifies changes in key social and environmental indicators for
different scenarios using a comprehensive methodo
l
ogy.


Outcome i
n
dicators of the analysis are related to:



emissions (pollution, noise),



safety

(risk of accidents)
, and



non
-
ren
ewable resources.

The methodology comprises four steps, starting with the consolidation of results from the
network model thereby deriving important key figures for freight flows, transport demand,
kilometric performance an
d tran
s
port prices.
Second, emissions and the risk of accidents
are derived.

These indicators are in the third step monetized to calculate external
costs

and
are input for the

partial
cost
-
benefit
-
analysis (CBA).
In methodological issues, we follow
sugge
stions from project
as
HEATCO, UNITE and SPECTRUM.
The fourth step involves the
analysis of
l
o
calised

impacts of transport as danger caused by goods transported and noise
emissions. This task was carried with the utilisation of geographic information syst
em (GIS).

The Business case elements, thus the trains, are analysed concerning there implications on
exhaust emissions and risk of accidents. They are basically compared against
long
-
distance
road haulage
.
The main assumption is that one train can replace

25 trucks. In the case of
train 1, this ratio may become even more in favour for rail transport, since the target market
segment are paper and pulp products that are usually very heavy goods.

Since transport on road is technologically more spatially flexi
ble then transport on rail, and
b
e
cause of the smaller mesh size of the road network, there are many route options for
trucks to convey goods from origin to destination. Since we aim to compare the truck route
with the proposed rail route we had to determi
ne the most common competitive routes.
Therefore we used k
-
shortest paths for the relations as presented and verified these
according our experience.

Input for the assessment of the impacts of the operational and service strategies were the
results from
the network modelling platform, among them:



OD matrix on freight flows, disaggregated for NUT2
-
regions, transport mode (truck
-
only/intermodal), and commodity type,



Flow on rail and road (intermodal feeder traffic only) links in net and gross tons and



Node
delays.

In order to derive local/regional impacts on transport demand, the
transport
-
flows needed to
be

localised. For rail transport, the link
-
flows could be
directly assigned to
NUTS2
-
regions
and thus

countries.


Since truck
-
only transport was modelled w
ith virtual links, it was necessary to estimate truck
-
transport from the OD
-
flows

with a further step
.

W
ith the use of GIS, it was possible to assign
the net and gross tons from the OD
-
flow
-
matrices to the shortest truck paths between origin
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Reference:



and destinatio
n. Next, the shortest
-
truck
-
paths were intersected with the NUTS2
-
zones
-
polygon layer. Finally, the amount
s

of tons and ton
-
km that are handled/generated within
each NUTS2
-
region

were

determined.

4.1.

Implications on
exhaust emissions

and energy consumption

Est
imation of effects like emissions
, energy consumption
and fatalities was done as a
function of the traffic over the links, mult
i
plied by impact factors. Traffic on the links was
estimated using network modelling results. The general form of the calculation

is si
m
ply:



OD
links
length
factor
effect
/
)
*
(

This way,

external effects

are assessed

in their natural unit through the assignment of factors
to transport volumes, distinguished for all different transport modes
. This
approach
is
suitable
for
those phenomena

that a
re not strictly spatial
ly

located
. As long as the traffic effects can
be
disaggregated by vehicle types

and their
traction

the results can give co
n
siderable
changes in impacts.



Emission, energy consumption and accident risk factors were collected from se
veral
European and national projects and statistics.

The
main sources were COPERT 4 (fuel
consumption and emission models for trucks), INFRAS

(Schreyer et al. 2004)
, SPECTRUM,
COMMUTE (energy consumption of trains) and SUMMA

(SUMMA 2005)
. Projects HEATCO

(
Bickel et al. 2006)
, UNITE and MC
-
ICAM were used as back
-
up and reference information.
For rai
l
ways, Eurostat and UIC have produced risk factors, and for roads IRTAD has
compared risks between cou
n
tries.


Table
8

p
resents
an overview of change in energy consumption due to the forecasted modal
shift of long
-
distance road haulage transport towards intermodal transport for the considered
scenarios.
Obviously, energy consumption in the rail market will increase in case
of
optimised infrastructure and border crossing conditions.
Values reported for countries outside
the REORIENT corridor are determined by the developments within the REORIENT
-
corridor,
e.g. the introduction of the operational or service scenarios.


Table
9

and
Table
10

report the changes in emissions: CO2, CO, HC, NOx and PM
compared to the base case. Like for the energy consumption, the strongest decrease can be
expected if all four trains are operational

under best border crossing and infrastructure
conditions.


European Commission

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ation Code:

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onfidential

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Date:

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Reference:


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31





E
nergy
[
MJ/year
]
, rail









F
uel
[
t/year
]
, truck





C
ountry

Scen. 09

Scen. 11

Scen. 12

Scen. 13

Scen. 14

Scen. 15

Scen. 09

Scen. 11

Scen. 12

Scen. 13

Scen. 14

Scen. 15

Austria

21,909,990

17,820,426

26,048,972

16,300,597

24,497,163

22,957,869

-
4,359

-
3,514

-
5,181

-
3,210

-
4,883

-
4,558

Bulgaria

679,495

520,022

396,580

5,837,957

392,377

713,757

-
133

-
104

-
81

-
1,172

-
79

-
139

Croatia

1,210,627

1,143,898

-
50,092

596,326

580,096

926,139

-
244

-
2
30

10

-
120

-
116

-
187

Czech Republic

18,266,643

21,396,159

18,927,904

17,869,512

30,155,187

20,906,088

-
3,849

-
4,477

-
3,927

-
3,697

-
6,224

-
4,379

Finland

2,214,336

2,764,444

2,603,146

1,786,016

1,377,831

2,795,251

-
453

-
559

-
520

-
355

-
280

-
566

Germany

14,
804,565

15,378,509

13,074,813

16,603,621

14,029,149

13,799,944

-
2,950

-
3,062

-
2,603

-
3,317

-
2,795

-
2,749

Greece

546,166

688,958

388,577

1,958,682

476,229

499,480

-
103

-
129

-
73

-
367

-
90

-
94

Hungary

35,213,475

11,662,392

8,797,656

16,684,801

20,361,416

16,
032,634

-
6,792

-
2,315

-
1,738

-
3,313

-
3,964

-
3,105

Italy

35,417

43,928

36,529

0

0

0

-
7

-
9

-
8

0

0

0

Macedonia

-
90,670

513,339

312,845

-
52,138

766,044

-
110,411

17

-
99

-
60

10

-
148

21

Norway

13,262

949,170

18,796

-
244,934

313,111

922,221

-
6

-
199

-
13

45

-
69

-
190

Poland

45,001,585

35,288,444

36,950,638

22,693,485

21,491,465

37,913,585

-
8,810

-
6,975

-
7,290

-
4,546

-
4,351

-
7,486

Romania

9,911,545

779,250

568,890

1,083,413

-
38,509

1,012,826

-
2,007

-
154

-
110

-
219

8

-
202

Serbia

1,686,004

380,232

119,537

16,231,434

223,822

1,164,115

-
337

-
76

-
24

-
3,287

-
45

-
234

Slovakia

11,509,054

14,395,005

13,312,735

14,305,263

15,781,283

9,883,537

-
2,249

-
2,778

-
2,603

-
2,772

-
3,032

-
1,920

Slovenia

3,666,300

3,744,592

1,181,249

2,465,863

2,885,506

2,876,509

-
716

-
730

-
231

-
486

-
566

-
558

Sweden

11,332,257

8,852,266

13,445,989

11,797,448

10,842,867

7,155,126

-
2,222

-
1,733

-
2,604

-
2,303

-
2,120

-
1,408

Sum

177,910,051

136,321,034

136,134,764

145,917,348

144,135,038

139,448,669

-
35,221

-
27,145

-
27,055

-
29,109

-
28,753

-
27,753

Table
8
: Change in energy consumption