Crafting New Choices

rumblecleverAI and Robotics

Dec 1, 2013 (3 years and 8 months ago)

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Crafting New Choices




Innovation and Decision
-
Making in the
Globalizing World


Navneet Bhushan

Crafitti Consulting Pvt Ltd, (
www.crafitti.com
)

Email
:
navneet.bhushan@crafitti.com

Bangalore, INDIA

Extended Abstract

That the world is changing is no brainer. That it is changing rapidly is also becoming painfully clear.
However, what is shocking and difficult to comprehend is that the world is changing rapi
dly in multiple
dimensions, in multiple ways from multiple directions in each dimension. This is unprecedented. The scale
of change along with the speed of change is conspiring to make it
exceedingly
difficult for us to respond to
the
new



as
the new

arrives rapidly, more frequently and from unknown directions, these days. What
further compounds the problems are our existing methods of responding to these challenges are failing


failing miserably. We need new ways. These may be evolved from the exist
ing known ways to solve
problems, imagine a new future or improve an existing system. Th
is evolution
may
lead to

new set of
tools, techniques, methodologies and frameworks for us to th
ink,
imagine

and execute

the new or ways of
responding to the new. Alter
natively, these methods may be radically different from the existing ways.


STEMIC
-
TCP Model

Yet there are
key fundamentals

of the world


at least
of
the conscious world that we have deciphered so
far


that remain. First fundamental is Space
-
Time which

integrates space and time. Space and time were
considered two separate fundamentals but modern physics integrated them as space
-
time.
Space and Time
M
ake up the Physics of the Seen while
Space
-
Time the physics
of the very tiny and very large
.
The second
f
undamental is Energy
-
Matter. If one look at the
world around us, the universe itself, is an
organization of Energy
-
Matter in Space
-
Time.

The
systems thinkers have talked about Matter, Energy
and Information.
I
f we look at the basic building
block
s of unive
rse we have Space and
Time (Space
-
time),
Energy and
Matter

(Energy
-
Matter)
, and
Information
. It is information that organizes matter
and energy in Space
-
time.

We call these the STEMI.
The STEMI can organize

or change its organization

on its own based on principle of maximum entropy or
can be orchestrated

by Thought and Consciousness
,
i.e., t
he
Mind

o
f the "Matter"
-

the artificial
. The
ability to reorganize matter and energy in space
-
time
using information is the ability of the Man. T
his requires Thought and Consciousness.
This is the fourth
fundamental which we call Mind.
The ability to create these changes in matter and energy to organize into
structures, I call, the Power.
Hence the mind has Thoughts, Consciousness and hence Power (
the TCP).
The orchestrated changes in STEMI and changes in TCP due to observations from STEMI are driving the
world towards increasing capability, evolution and design.


At the basic level of this framework lies a conceptual construct called a
System
.
Whe
n we talk about
definition of a System
-

from fundamental principles point of view


a System can be defined as a
set of
ele
ments (Energy
-
Matter organized in Space
-
T
ime) working together (exchanging energy and
/or

information)

and with the environment

to ac
hieve an ob
jective or perform a function (create Change
-

in
matter, energy and information in s
pace
-
time). When the system is achieved
/changed

by thought and
consciousness we make
systems artificial.

The ability to create and control CHANGE is Power.

We

c
all
this the STEMIC TCP Model.

Hence we need to leverage the new methods in the light of these four
fundamentals.


Crafting New Choices
-

Framework

Whatever these new ways and whatever their origins be it is becoming painfully clear that we have to
understand the new reality of globalization and complexity. We have to respond to continuously emerging
new reality in ways that are not fathomed so far. A
s it has happened in the past, humanity has responded to
new challenges by application of mind. Time has come to integrate the disparate capabilities of human
mind


creativity, decision
-
making and innovation



into an integrated framework. Only through an

integrative approach incorporating
all

key dimensions of human thinking


developed over past many
centuries


can we respond to the new challenges.
We identify five key dimensions of thinking.
The
Analytical and Logical thinking developed over many centu
ries have stood the test of time. However, three
other relatively dormant dimensions of human thinking need to be brought to the forefront and integrated
with these established thinking dimensions to respond to new challenges. These are


Inventive Thinkin
g,
Value Thinking and Systems Thinking.


These five thinking dimensions need to be integrated and applied in a manner so as to create new solutions
to problems and meeting the
current and emerging
needs of the new world. This
paper

proposes
an

integrated t
hinking framework to respond to the new challenges. Further, the manner of applying this
framework requires
understanding the world and the needs of the new world. We need new or different
lenses to understand the world. O
ur lenses need to evolve to go dee
per and go wider in the world around
us. We need to explore our world faster and at a scale that we have not accomplished before. Only when
we have understood the world


or at least have some semblance of working of the world can we apply our
thinking to
create the needed change.


Therefore,
the first
phase

is really to understand the world around us. Understand the needs of the
changing world.
We name the first step as
Explor
e
.
Second
phase
is to
generate ideas. We name it
Ideat
e
.
This requires applicat
ion of
integrated
thinking combining the five dimensions of
analysis, logic, value, inventions, and
systems to invent, design, create or
engineer new concepts/solutions to the
new needs. For each of these needs, we
may
generate

many different solutions.
Ho
wever, these ideas may not propagate
much in the world which normally doesn’t
welcome the new. Ideas need to be given
enough shape, form and strength not only
to live, but to strive and thrive in the
world.
Empower

is
the

third phase.
Objective is to empow
er ideas.
H
ere
, we
focus on
Craft.
We define
crafting

as a
process of giving shape, form and
structure to an abstract concept or idea in such a manner that it performs specific functions or behave in
specific ways under a range of environmental conditions and situations. Also, crafting distinguishing itself
from engineering


where a repeated process creates a repeated replica or
similar/same

product or system.
We realize,
when we are

crafting
, variation/variability is not only
not
-
bad

but
is essential

to create the new
or respond to the new.

Further, craftin
g is essential to propagate the new concepts and solutions rapidly so
that they are used and implemented by many.
The conceived set of solutions or the new system
conceptualized to achieve specific function, need to be communicated to existing users and po
tential users.
The new solutions need to be
related

to their context. They should be
allowed

to use these solutions. Their
use of new solutions should
be studied with a
follow
-
up
. With these inputs from the experiences of
the
users
, solutions
should be adj
usted in various contexts to
turn
-
around

the users to the new solutions.


We call this framework
Crafting New Choices
.

This is the framework that combines three key
human
capabilities


Creativity
,
Decision
-
Making

and
Innovation
.
The framework integrates multiple techniques,
methods and methodologies, and is an
open
-
framework

with three key phases
for

responding to new
challenges of globalizing complexity.
As mentioned, we

are living in a rapidly
globalizing

world.
The new
globaliz
ing world is characterized by rapid change. One may argue that change is the only constant in our
world anyway, however, the pace of change in the globalizing world enabled by technological advances in
multiple dimensions, requires understanding and respon
ses that are unprecedented.
In this
changing

world,
rules of the game can change anytime; success will come to those who adapt quickly to the new rules. And
as is common understanding,
the best way one can adapt to the new rules is by writing these rules
.
In these
highly evolving times, with extreme uncertainties and time compressions, it is the successful
creation of
changing through
ideas, i.e., Innovation, can be the only competitive advantage.
The
Crafting New Choices

framework gives an integrated solut
ion combining creativity, decision
-
making and innovation.


Law of Increasing Intelligence of Technical Systems

Despite its discovery by Darwin, 150 years back, acceptance of evolution by natural selection as a possible
model of explanation of progress of cosmos is a relatively recent phenomenon. One of the earlier
recognition of evolution due to ingenuity of human
mind reflected in the successful inventions described in
patents and technological knowledge was discovered and explained by the Theory of Inventive Problem
Solving (TRIZ). This resulted in discovery of laws of evolution of technical systems which became t
he
basis of classical TRIZ. The purpose of evolution of technical systems was to achieve the “Ideal system”.
Technical systems exist or are created to perform a function. The ideal technical system describes the
fulfillment of the function with reduction i
n number of the elements of technical system that actuates the
function. TRIZ and its laws of evolution of technical systems explained in the era of physical systems


the
era of machines


explained the fulfillment of function in an ideal way.


From the
era of machines


dominated by automobile


which incidentally became the model for classical
TRIZ


we are witnessing the era of information. Our understanding of “information”


its nature and its
deeper manifestations


is increasing day by day. When we

started investigating the applicability of laws
of system evolution as described by TRIZ in the current era of information, we realized that TRIZ,
understandably missed the key ingredient, i.e., information, embedded in technical systems.


We discovered
that human beings by collectively evolving their technical systems, are trying to make each
technical system as close to a human being as possible


or at least a model of human being and its
environment based on the current understanding of the world (for

example, understanding of laws of
physics and chemistry in making an automobile) and the current understanding of the system called the
human being. As man understands the world around it as well as its body and its mind, it wants to create
an “ideal man”

or at least an idealized human of all technical systems it is creating. This is an unexpected
discovery and may take the readers used to classical TRIZ, sometime to accept it.


We propose that the
technical systems emerged due to increasing understanding
of two key fundamentals
of universe and their interactions


these are Space
-
Time and Energy
-
Mass (
the

STEM).
Every technical
system in the physical era is a reflection of organization and reorganization in higher and higher order
structures of mass
-
energy

organized in space
-
time.

We propose, based on our recent and deeper
understanding of “information”, that information itself is one of the fundamentals just like space
-
time and
mass
-
energy. We need to understand the concept of ideal system in the light of
this proposal of making
information itself as fundamental. This increases the complexity of technical systems, however, with three
fundamentals


space
-
time, energy
-
matter and information


we get new lens to view the evolution of
technical systems.

The ma
chine era gave way to information era, when we started embedding information in the technical
systems. The more we understand information and its related processing capability


computing


the more
we are embedding it in the physical systems. In the era o
f information, technical systems started becoming
“smart” and “brilliant”


the adjectives usually reserved for predominantly human faculty, i.e.,
intelligence.


Given our understanding of the current information era and how technical systems are evolving
from their
predominantly physical characteristics into information enriched technical systems, we propose in this
paper a new law


the law of increasing intelligence of technical systems.

Further, as we understand and
realize the era of information which
emerged under the shadow of era of machines


we need to see how
the integration of third fundamental


that is information


to STEM making it STEMI


is impacting the
evolution of technical systems. Information is rapidly becoming all pervasive, all embe
dded, and all
penetrated. We realize the ideal technical system today, not only need to perform certain pre
-
defined
functions, but also process information for example, to choose the function it needs to perform at a
particular moment. In fact,
every
syste
m should behave as an information processing system before they
actually perform their physical functions in reorganizing/manipulating STEM. The STEMI interactions in
technical systems, indeed has made the modern systems closer to human beings in their abi
lity to process
information, to create, re
-
organize, self
-
organize into new structures, control and manage precision of
physical effects.


Further, we realize, since we have what
some observers describe as the law of
accelerating future, the fourth
funda
mental, i.e., mind, will be integrated
into technical systems sooner than later.
Even though information era is still
continuing, with the STEMI integration,
we have already started a deeper quest
into the emergent phenomenon of
complexity called the mind.

The mind is
now being thought of to be reflected in
our future technical systems. We believe,
when we integrate the ability to process
thoughts and in fact create “inventive”
technical systems, we will enter the era of
Genius Systems.


In an influencing
work, “The singularity is near”, Ray Kurzweil, defined why some futurists predict that
non
-
biological intelligence will exceed biological intelligence by 2050 AD or so. We will enter the era of
mind and beyond with Genius Systems giving way to Trans
-
Human
Intelligence Systems (THIS). In the
era of mind, the ideality will be defined in creating “perfect ideas” by the genius systems/trans
-
human
intelligent systems


they may turn out to be “inventive Mr. Spocks” or “uncontrolled Frankenstein’s”. It is
also a
question for future, just as the key question to answer for us is why nature in its evolution missed
“the wheel” but did not miss “opposable thumb”.


The “natural selection” articulated and sold incorrectly as “survival of the fittest” has created immense
problems in our history. Evolution, in fact, doesn’t support it. Nature prefers to retain as much variety as
possible. The evolution progresses by “elimination of the weakest”. This is visible in evolution of technical
systems as well. Technical systems ho
wever, have been chosen/developed/progressed through investment
of immense material and intellectual resources of humanity. The evolution of technical systems in the
STEMI era


driven by faulty “survival of the fittest” guidance, has created extreme compe
tition in men,
societies, countries and civilizations to control evolution. Whether it was designed by nature to speed
-
up
evolution or was an innocent error of nature? The arguments can be created with same passion and logic
by the proponents of the counte
r model to evolution, i.e., the intelligent design of the universe, vis
-
à
-
vis
the evolutionary model. Yet Genetic algorithms, cellular automata and game of life in 1970s and 1990s
showed us that “self
-
reproducing” systems are a reality and we can discover
the laws/principles underlying
these systems. We need to reach specific level of complexity to be able to “self
-
reproduce” besides
achieving other emergent properties of complex systems. The argument is strengthened by the emergent of
mind due to complexit
y of brain.


We

are in the era of information today. This is an era that has replaced the era of machines that started
with industrial revolution. This era of information is giving us systems that are becoming increasingly
intelligent
. From the
dumb sy
stems

that
were responding to inputs to perform
specific functions, we have evolved to
guided systems

and
smart systems

of the
information era. The next stage of evolution
of technical systems is increasingly
becoming clear as we are seeing emergence
of
br
illiant systems

which we predict will
become
genius systems
. By 2050 AD, the
world will have technical systems with
more intelligence than biological
intelligence


predicted as the
Singularity
.
From information era we are now entering
rapidly into the era of mind. This we call as
law of increasing intelligence of technical
systems.



This keynote talk will describe the framework for innovation and decision making which we call
Crafting
New Cho
ices

in vi
ew of the STEMIC
-
TCP Model and l
aw of increasing intelligence of technical systems
as a framework to navigate the globalizing innovation complexity.


About the Author

Navneet Bhushan (Navneet) is a founder director of CRAFITTI CONSULTING
(
www.crafitti.com
)


an i
nnovation
c
onsulting
and research firm focused on co
-
crafting i
nnovation
in global enterprises. He is the principal author of Strategic Decision Making
-

Applying the
Analytic Hierarchy Process
published by Springer
-
Verlag, UK, as part of the Decision Engineering
Series. Navneet Blogs at
http://innovationcrafting.blogspot.com
.
He can be contacted at
navneet(dot)bhushan(at) crafitti(dot)com. C
urrently he is working on his new book titled Crafting
New Choices
.