Looking to the future

Top 10
Forecasts,
2008


Let’s get right to it….

Why bother with the future


"If you think that you
can run an
organization in the
next 10 years…
… as you've run it in
the past 10 years…


you're out of your
mind."

CEO, Coca Cola


“When the rate
of change outside
your company
exceeds the rate
of change inside
your company,
disaster is
imminent”



Lou Pritchet Senior VP, Procter & Gamble


Looking to the future:

common mistakes


Making predictions rather than
attaching probabilities to
possibilities



Simply extrapolating current
trends



Thinking of only one future

“When faced with a totally new situation we tend to attach
ourselves to the objects of the
most recent past
.


Marshall McLuhan

We look at the present through a
rear view mirror
”

Looking to the future:

common mistakes

People consistently
Overestimate

the effect of
short term

change

&
Underestimate
the effect of
long term

change
.

Ian Morrison,

former president of the Institute for the Future

Effective Forecasting
-

The
Desired vs The Likely


The best way to predict the future is to
invent it
–


Alan Kay
--
‘Father’ of the PC and GUI interface


R E A

C
T I V E



C

R E A T I V E

Change how you “C” things!



The point is
not so
much to predict

“the” future…


but to prepare

for
various
contingencies


Based on the
logical extension
of established
trends

How best to prepare for the future

Some things are clear
--

How best to think about the future


Think of the drivers of
change


Use the drivers to imagine
different scenarios of the
future


Imagine perhaps three; each
should be plausible but
different


Extrapolate back from those
future scenarios to think
about what to do now to
prepare


TechnoSphere


InfoSphere


SocioSphere


PsychoSphere


Bio & PowerSpheres

What “Drivers” Have
We Observed?

What occurred in past few
decades to precipitate a
paradigm shift in Marketing…


From product to customer
centered


From mass to micro strategy


From customer acquisition to
retention


From regarding marketing as a
function to envisioning it as a
philosophy


Enabled by Technologically


Precipitated by Globalization


Necessitated by Consumers


technology
convergence

is fueling
a new economy

Computing

Technologies

Communication
Technologies

Content

Technologies

The resulting
Techno/Info
-
sphere

is re
-
defining the business landscape for the 21
st

century


CONVERGENT

TECHNOLOGY

Future
Marketing
Environment

NONCONVERGENT

TECHNOLOGIES

Past
Marketing
Environment

TechnoSphere
Drivers


Ubiquitous
-

Imbedded
Intelligence

Information technology will
transform our day
-
to
-
day
lives.



"The big trends
-

are the
availability of cheap
sensors that provide
digital data, cheap
computing power and
ubiquitous connectivity
-

the ability to connect to
networks,"


by 2020 everything large
enough to carry a
microchip probably will,
and from there the
possibilities are endless.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html

Imbedded
intelligence
& low
-
cost
omnipresen
t
bandwidth

3G videophones
w/ broadband
–

2 meg

per second
–

AI Enhanced
PDA devices
w/ speech
recognition &
avatars

RFID
–

everywhere &
in everything



Enabled by Technologically


Precipitated by Globalization


Necessitated by Consumers

After more than a
century of electric
technology, we have
extended our central
nervous system in a
global embrace,
abolishing both space &
time”

-
Marshall McLuhan,
Understanding Media
-

1955


Rise of the “Global Village”

…

not just
the
“shrinking” of time &
space

The new electronic
media have
transcended time &
space w/
“virtual
mobility”

Borders have become meaningless


Trans
-
National*
Cross
-
Cultural

High Speed/ Low
Cost

Transportation &
Communication

The entire
globe is
now tied
together as a
single
community
operating
24/7/365

The Compunications Driver

The
further, faster,
easier, cheaper & more

frequent

people are able
to
travel &
communicate
…


the greater the amount
of

interaction &
influence

The greater the degree
of Globalization


Enabled by Technologically


Precipitated by Globalization


Necessitated by Consumers

20
th

Century

Homogenous Consumers

21
st

Century

Fragmented Consumers

% of population

% of population

Extreme shifts in:


Age


Wealth


Ethnicity
Culture


Lifestage
patterns


Household
composition


Value
systems

Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis

Consumer values are
fragmenting

X+

generation=

techno
-
savvy


accessing information whenever &
wherever they want it


Product knowledge


Third
-
party commentary



Ubiquitous networking


Next
-
generation

mobile devices


Advanced infomediaries

Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis


& Info Savvy

Source: (1) GMA Forum, “Do We Have a Crisis in Brand Management,” Q3 2003; (2) Forrester Research,
“Privacy for Sale,” 11 Jun 02; IBM Institute for Business Value analysis

Blocking Out,
Shutting Down



Overexposed & “on” to
marketing



Ignore irrelevant, low
-
value messages



Actively block
unsolicited
communications

Becoming more
complex
--
age,
sex & income
reversals


Becoming more self
-
centered & Home
centered

Have less time &
more choices

Are less brand
loyal

More connected &
more informed

Have lower
attention spans &
higher
expectations


Are living &
shopping more for
today…

Less long range
planning

Seeking new/ heightened
sensation & experiences

Today’s

Consumers

Preparing for the Future:

A Quick N’ Dirty
Environmental Scan

•

“
By 2015
,
desktop operating systems will
be largely irrelevant.

•
The Web will be the only OS worth coding
for.

•

It won't matter what device you use, as long
as it runs on the Web OS.

•
You will reach the same distributed
computer whether you log on via phone, PDA,
laptop, or HDTV”


The

"global brain”
is beginning to
emerge


We are the web
—
Kevin Kelly
-
Wired
magazine
-
August 2005




Each time we forge a link between words, we teach it an idea…. That
massive cross
-
referencing is how brains think and remember.


What will most surprise us is how dependent we will be on what the
Machine knows
-

about us and about what we want to know.


We already find it easier to Google something a second or third time
rather than remember it ourselves.


The more we teach this megacomputer, the more it will assume
responsibility for our knowing. It will become our memory. Then it will
become our identity.


Within a quarter
century,
nonbiological
intelligence will
match the range
and subtlety of
human intelligence

The Singularity is
Near

rise of…atomic &
molecular computers

quantum computers

nanotechnology

optical computers

DNA computers
–
or even a
“computer in a pen”


Age of Silicon
is at an end!


More Concerned
w/ Corporate
citizenship


More Eco
-
conscious

Expect immediate
personalized
attention

Health #1

Very tech savvy

70% music &
books bought
online


shopping more on
impulse…

High levels
dissatisfaction w/
retailing

Tomorrows

Consumers

Living/ Growing up in the Global Village


Cross
-

generations


Cross
-

cultural


Cross
-

mediated experiences

Emergence of an inter:

•
National

•
Cultural

•
Changeable workforce

Global
-

Psycho
-
Spheric
Schizophrenia

Multi
-
National
Commercialization of
Public Sector Services

The De
-
Definition of
American

Some things are clear
--

Evolving Now into Just One Big Market:

The Global Economy

…

the increasing
tendency of economies
around the world to
interact w/ one
another as one market
instead of many
national markets

For US
-

Presently about 1/3 of profits and 1/5 of
economic growth are related to global business

The Global
Village

The Global
Economy

The Global
Corporation

http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html

•
Growing divergence between those employed in highly skilled, highly paid
professions, and those at the bottom ..
The economy of work.. will
be increasingly hourglass
-
shaped.

"At the top end of the jobs hierarchy, people are likely to enjoy substantial
discretion over their hours, places and patterns of working time…



•
Outsourcing,

…
will continue
. Reservation agents, computer
programmers, database managers, financial analysts
-

all those whose jobs that
depend, in part, on an ability to master repetitive tasks performed on a computer
-

will have been relocated abroad. "Only the customer
-
facing jobs will be left,"

Networking is critical in building

competency & competitiveness

2
nd

Wave

PowerSphere~Collapse



"
As the Second Wave produced a mass
society, the Third Wave de
-
massifies
us,……….

moving the entire social system to
a much higher level of diversity &
complexity.


This revolutionary process, much like the
biological differentiation that occurs in
evolution, helps explain one of today's most
noted political phenomena
-

the collapse of
consensus."


Toffler, The Third Wave, p. 408


What, then, happens to the
very notion of

'representative democracy
?'


Under the convergence of speed & diversity,
can any constituency can be "represented?"


In a mass industrial society, when people and
their needs were fairly uniform and basic,
consensus was an attainable goal.


In a de
-
massified society, we not only lack
national purpose, we also lack regional,
statewide, or city
-
wide purpose. ...


The elected representative cannot
represent the general will for the simple
reason that there is none

Toffler, The Third Wave, p. 410


the collapse of consensus


In 2nd Wave society a
political leader could glue
together half a dozen major
blocs, as Roosevelt did in
1932, and expect the
resulting coalition to
remain locked in position
for many years.

the collapse of
consensus


Today it is necessary to
plug together hundreds,
even thousands, of tiny,
short
-
lived special interest
groups
… that cleave
together just long enough to
elect a president, then break
apart again the day after the
election, leaving him
without a base of support
for his programs

“
In all likelihood it will require
the radical overhaul
–
or even
scraping
-
of:

.. all the unwieldy & unworkable
apparatus of supposedly
representative governments”…



Toffler
-

The 3
rd

Wave



http://www.guardian.co.uk/2020/0,15047,1299021,00.html

“The onward march of individualism
-

either through choice or fate

-

is still probably
the major force shaping our world”

The central question is
: Will the slow
collapse of institutions that have been
vehicles for our shared identity mean
collapse of identity itself?


Frontline
-

The Persuaders


The Near Future:



Marketing
Considerations

“
In today
already
walks
tomorrow.”

Friedrich von Schiller

Marketing’s Evolution Mirrors
Civilization’s….


From 2
nd

wave
Manufacturing Mentality


To 3
rd

Wave Information &
Relationship Mgt. Process

Welcome to
the Future


Real time data mining
—

conducted ‘round the world
24/7/365


On
-
going Consumer input &
generated content


Marketing messages
constructed “on the fly”
-
and
delived thru integrated &
individualized
communication channels…






Analytical
marketing
skills and
processes
will be
paramount

Career Competencies Needed by
New
-
Marketers
…

Traditional Skills


Sales mgt


Advertising mgt


Sales promotion
mgt


Marketing
research


Pricing

PLUS:


Customer relationship
management (CRM)


Partner relationship
management (PRM)


Marketing Resource Mgt.:
Database Mgt & Data
-
mining


Lifetime Profitability
analysis by segment,
customer, channel


Integrated marketing
communications; Public
relations
-
(including event &
cause sponsorship, buzz
marketing)

From Decision Support to Decision
Automation: A 2020 Vision

Randolph E. Bucklin, Donald R. Lehmann, and John D. C. Little;



In coming decades, a
growing proportion of
marketing decisions will
be automated by ever
-
more
-
powerful
combinations of data,
models, and
computers.



New age of marketing
decision support will
usher in an era of
decision automation
.



Marketing Resource Mgt

User Interface

Workflow

Collaboration

Content

Management

Marketing Functionality

Marketing Context

Living Tomorrow
–




Got Milk?


Got Pants?


Watching TV


Washing Clothes


Going to the
Bathroom


Going to Bed

& Most
Significantly:

Decision Support
& Automation
Systems
-

will be
implemented
within the
consumer as well
as business
environments
--