Wireless

qualtaghblurtingMobile - Wireless

Dec 12, 2013 (3 years and 7 months ago)

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ERG
-
RSPG Joint Session

February 27, 2008

G
öteborg

«

Broadband wireless as an alternative
infrastructure? A prospective overview of
technologies, markets & regulation

»



Gérard POGOREL

Professor of Economics


TELECOM ParisTech (ENST)

<gerard.pogorel@telecom
-
paristech.fr>

RSPG ERG Joint meeting Gerard Pogorel pres 080303

<gerard.pogorel@telecom
-
paristech>

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ERG
-
RSPG 27/2/2008

2

Wireless broadband as an


Alternative
Infrastructure?

Areas of tentative analysis


1.
Technical functionalities,
performances and
services, as compared to
fixed

2.
Telecom markets definition and
competition

3.
Industry structure
considerations

4.
Regulation considerations





<gerard.pogorel@telecom
-
paristech>

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-
RSPG 27/2/2008

3

1. Roadmaps: Data rates=Mobile & Fixed
technologies

Source: IDATE

10
Kbps
100
Kbps
1
Mbps
10
Mbps
100
Mbps
2000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
CDMA
GPRS
CDMA
2000 1
x
EDGE
UMTS Rel
.

99
CDMA
2000
EVDO Rev
.
0
HSDPA
TD
-
SCDMA
CDMA
2000
EVDO Rev
.
A
CDMA
2000
EVDO Rev
.
B
HSUPA
Mobile
WiMAX
LTE
CDMA
2000
EVDO Rev
.
C
Mobile
WiMAX
Maximum downlink data rate
Flash
-
OFDM
1
Gbps
xDSL
FO
FIXE
MOBILE
<gerard.pogorel@telecom
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-
RSPG 27/2/2008

4


1a. Wireless roadmaps: UMTS
-
WCDMA / HSPA / LTE

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RSPG 27/2/2008

5

1b. Wireless roadmaps

CDMA 2000
-
UMB

Source: QUALCOMM

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RSPG 27/2/2008

6

1c. Wireless roadmaps

+ WiMax

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RSPG 27/2/2008

7

Question marks : Wireless


LTE: 2009
-
10


WiMax: 30
-
70 megabits 60km


UMP


Which is fastest, most efficient, and most cost
-
effective.


Some vendors deny mobile voice efficiency to
WiMax


Uplink Data rate

<gerard.pogorel@telecom
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RSPG 27/2/2008

8

Question marks : Fixed


Fiber: Slow start (2007)


Will it happen, when and how ?


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RSPG 27/2/2008

9



Wireless vs. Fixed: functionalities


If functionnally equal…


Mobility wins? Lessons from voice
telephony: depends where you start from


Developed countries: hand in hand


Emerging countries go wireless


<gerard.pogorel@telecom
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ERG
-
RSPG 27/2/2008

10

Wireless broadband as an


Alternative
infrastructure?

Areas of tentative analysis


1.
Technical functionalities,

2.
Telecom markets
definition and
competition

3.
Industry structure

4.
Regulation

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Extension of Worldwide Broadband Wireless

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-
RSPG 27/2/2008

12

Wireless
&

Fixed: networks



Converged offers


More Potential
technical

complementarities


Femtocells accelerate switch to
voice on mobile; but need fixed
broadband to connect femtocells
back to core mobile networks
(Source: Analysys, Idate)


potential
geographic

complementarities

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-
RSPG 27/2/2008

13

Wireless, Fixed Compared 2008

Fixed

Wireless
3G+

Internet
Access/page

Weather,sports,
stocks, news

<1s

<2s

(end 2007: 70
-
80% have
some access
-
> 30
-
40%
use it/In Transition to full
Web access
)

TV/Video

50+ channels

Up to 50
channels+videos

Music
downloads

5
-
10s

30
-
60s /audio
file

Tests France Feb 2008

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-
RSPG 27/2/2008

14

Wireless vs. Fixed: terminals



The “3 screens”: TV+PC+Mobile


Different in Size, versatility, QoS, costs


Are they


Substitutes, or


Substitutes
&

complements

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-
RSPG 27/2/2008

15

Wireless as an alternative infrastructure:
the voice telephony market analogy


ETNO Reflection Document
RD274 (2008/01)?? Wireless
broadband to be considered an
alternative infrastructure when
wireless voice is not, at least in
most countries «


obviously
different services both in terms of
utility and of production

»

2 different markets, except in those
countries where F&M are already
substitutes:

SEE ARCEP fixed telephony
consultation document Feb 20


<gerard.pogorel@telecom
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-
RSPG 27/2/2008

16

F & M literature see

definition of relevant markets

convergence of termination rates literature

Technical dimension of Fixed &
Mobile market distinction (ETNO
ibid.):



Switching and signalling sytems of
mobile networks more complex
than fixed


Geography of transmission links
different: Mobile more costly


Capacity costs more traffic
sensitive for mobile (does it matter)


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-
RSPG 27/2/2008

17

An alternative infrastructure?


Fixed Broadband
trend: up, differ from
fixed voice, down


Relevant market
test…


Not there yet, but…

Analysys

<gerard.pogorel@telecom
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paristech>

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-
RSPG 27/2/2008

18

Wireless Revolution


India 2007:



Internet connections via PC declined: Q1
9.27 million
-

Q2 9.22 million
(Source: Telecom
Regulatory Authority of India)


Mobile Internet expected to reach 200million
users in 2010

(Source:
Indian Cellular Assn)



<gerard.pogorel@telecom
-
paristech>

Quic kTime™ e t u n
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s on t r eq u is p ou r vis ion n er c ette ima ge.
ERG
-
RSPG 27/2/2008

19

Wireless broadband as an


Alternative
infrastructure?

Areas of tentative analysis


1.
Technical functionalities

2.
Telecom markets definition and
competition

3.
Industry structure
considerations (vertical
and horizontal
integration), barriers to
entry, bottlenecks

4.
Regulation

<gerard.pogorel@telecom
-
paristech>

Quic kTime™ e t u n
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ERG
-
RSPG 27/2/2008

20

Industry structure considerations


Vertical and horizontal integration, barriers
to entry


Bottlenecks (access, origination and
termination)


How will the actors handle the development
of fixed and wireless broadband?


<gerard.pogorel@telecom
-
paristech>

Quic kTime™ e t u n
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s on t r eq u is p ou r vis ion n er c ette ima ge.
ERG
-
RSPG 27/2/2008

21

Wireless broadband as an


Alternative
infrastructure?

Areas of tentative analysis



1.
Technical functionalities

2.
Telecom markets definition and
competition

3.
Industry structure

4.
Regulatory
considerations

<gerard.pogorel@telecom
-
paristech>

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ERG
-
RSPG 27/2/2008

22

4. The regulator’s Role



Providing a competitive environment for
innovation under heavily uncertain
conditions


Consumer interest


Level playing field

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Converging services: similar sets of services to
be offered on fixed and wireless…

Converging regimes to be applied to
Fixed and Wireless

<gerard.pogorel@telecom
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-
RSPG 27/2/2008

24

Regulatory issues


Ex ante/ex post


Convergence


«

bottlenecks regulation

»


Access, Origination, Termination)



?? access to radio spectrum: differences in
licensing and authorisation regimes

<gerard.pogorel@telecom
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-
RSPG 27/2/2008

25

4.1. Legacy Spectrum issues/3G Licences
price?


Country

3G Holders

Price per licence

(EUR)

Spectrum FDD + TDD

Method

Denmark

TDC

Telia Denmark

Orange

H3G

0.127 billion

0.127 billion

0.127 billion

0.127 billion

2x15MHz + 5MHz

2x15MHz + 5MHz

2x15MHz + 5MHz

2x15MHz + 5MHz

Sealed bid
process

France

Orange
France

SFR

Bouygues Telecom

619 million,

plus a 1% tax on
UMTS revenues

2x15MHz + 5MHz

2x15MHz + 5MHz

2x15MHz + 5MHz

Beauty contest

Germany

Vodafone D2

T
-
Mobile Deutschland

E
-
Plus

O
2
Germany

Mobilcom*

Quam (3G Group)

8.4 billion

8.5 billion

8.4 billion

8
.4 billion

8.4 billion

8.4 billion

2x5MHz + 5MHz

2x5MHz + 5MHz

2x5MHz + 5MHz

2x5MHz + 5MHz

2x5MHz + 5MHz

2x5MHz + 5MHz

Auction

Italy

TIM

Vodafone Omnitel

Wind

ISPE2000

Andala (H3G)

2.417 billion

2.448 billion

2.427 billion

2.442 billion

2.427 billion

2x10
MHz + 5MHz

2x10MHz + 5MHz

2x10MHz + 5MHz

2x15MHz + 5MHz

2x15MHz + 5MHz

Hybrid: auction
and beauty
contest

The
Netherlands

KPN Mobile

Vodafone
(Libertel)

Orange
(Dutchtone)

Telfort

T
-
Mobile Netherlands

0.7 billion

0.7 billion

0.4 billion

0.4 billion

0.4 bi
llion

2x15 MHz +5MHz

2x15 MHz +5MHz

2x10 MHz

2x10 MHz

2x10 MHz

Auction

Spain

Telefónica Moviles

Vodafone Spain

(Airtel)

Amena

Xfera

0.13 billion

0.13 billion

0.13 billion

0.13 billion

2x15MHz + 5MHz

2x15MHz + 5MHz

2x15MHz + 5MHz

2x15MHz + 5MHz

Beauty cont
est

The UK

Vodafone UK

O
2
UK

Orange UK

T
-
Mobile UK

Hutchison 3G UK

9.85 billion

6.65 billion

6.75 billion

6.61 billion

7.23 billion

2x15MHz + 5MHz

2x10MHz + 5MHz

2x10MHz + 5MHz

2x10MHz + 5MHz

2x15MHz

Auction


An average value of

10 EUR per pop

(upfront payment only)

A maximum value of

164 EUR per pop

A maximum value of

106 EUR per pop

An average value of

23 EUR per pop

An average value of

3.2 EUR per pop

Source: IDATE

<gerard.pogorel@telecom
-
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-
RSPG 27/2/2008

26

What price level spectrum?




Current Price levels of WiMAX licenses in the 100s mil




More reasonable and in line with use of limited resource



The easier spectrum access, the closer we get to a
wireless alternative infrastructure

<gerard.pogorel@telecom
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RSPG 27/2/2008

27

2002

2003 2004 2005

2006

2007
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012 2013

2014
2015

2016

SDR
:

Full dynamic spectrum
allocation from
2015
.


SDR:

Soft upgrades for
mobile devices from
2011
.


Multiple standards in mobile
devices (GPS, WiMAX, 3G,
WiFi).


UWB
: 50 models of UWB
devices approved by the
FCC since
2002
.

Cognitive radio
: Full dynamic
spectrum allocation from
2015
.


USA: FCC approval in 2002


Europe: Power spectral density mask
still debated.


No dedicated frequency bands for
ETSI, ECC and ITU.


Harmonized standard in
2006

or
2007
.


Cognitive radio
:
Smarter
cognitive radios techniques from
2010
.


(DECT already available )


Antennas technologies:


No previsions regarding
wideband and reconfigurable
antennas.


MIMO

is expected to
be deployed in
commercial networks
in the
2008

timeframe.


SDR
. Many experiments. Platforms
capable to connect into WLAN (802.11) or
UMTS (W
-
CDMA) networks, or to act as
HDTV receiver.

Wired remote upgrade in base stations
from
2007
.

Mesh networks.
Many experiments.


MIMO.

Prototypes.

Pre
-
standard MIMO equipments are
already available.

MIMO applications will be part of the IEEE
802.11n High
-
Throughput standard which
is expected in mid
2006



Network integration /
Roll out & Commercial
Launch


Available

Timetable Estimation for Technologies Development


Source: SPORTVIEWS
-
IDATE

<gerard.pogorel@telecom
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RSPG 27/2/2008

28


Cluster” approach proposed in Digital dividend
document……


Given the strong interaction of frequency band, service application,
and technology assessment, which constitute the basic foundation of
the choice of a spectrum management regime,


we propose to operate those choices for each “cluster” of consistent
and relevant band/service/technology

Cluster
Frequency bands
Technologies
Services

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RSPG 27/2/2008

29


Cluster” approach proposed in

Nov 23
Digital Dividend

document……


…To be extended to fixed
-
wireless
convergence



Alternative infrastructures:
Neutrality of
regulatory framework


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30

Unleashing the innovative potential of
Fixed & Wireless technologies

by Fixed
-
Wireless “cluster” regulation


1.
Technology: neutral

2.
Usage Rights Definition:
consistent

3.
Licence/Autorisation Assignment
Modes: coherent in EU


-
> Towards
global authorisations/
licences

?

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31


Spectrum regulation is key

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Thank You