Project Charter for the Wildfire Management Tool (WMT)

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Oct 15, 2013 (4 years and 28 days ago)

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Copyright © 2009
,2012

by
Bruce Schubert.


Project Charter

f
or

the

Wildfire Management Tool (WMT
)



Version 1.
2


Prepared by Bruce Schubert

Emxsys

Created: October
24
,
2009

Revised: September 9, 2012

Project Charter for
Wildfire Management Tool

Page
ii


Table of Contents

1.

Project Description

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1

2.

Business Objectives and Success Criteria

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1

3.

Stakeholders

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4

4.

Vision

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.........

4

5.

Project Scope

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............................

4

6.

Assumptio
ns and Dependencies

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...............................

6

7.

Constraints

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6

8.

Milestones
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................................
.

7

9.

Business Risks

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............................

7

10.

Resources

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..

8

Revision History

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...............................

9



Project Charter for
Wildfire Management Tool

Page
1


Project Description

The Wildfire Management Tool (WMT) project is

inspired by and based on the

Campbell Prediction
System (CPS)

a
practical way to use on
-
scene
fire
observations to determine fire behavior strategies
and tactics.
In CPS, t
he observed fire behavior becomes the baseline for fire behavior predictions
. With
CPS,

logic
replaces intuition
,
promoting
a
cognitive
approach for developing
tactics.
CPS places an
emphasis on predicting when and where fire behavior may change
, and it provides a nomenclature for
explaining these changes
.

CPS

d
evelop
s
a strong case fo
r acting on
a

fire’s potential rather than
simply
reacting to changes in
its
behavior.


In retrospect,
many
wildland firefighter deaths
could have been prevented that
were
,

unfortunately,
a result of reacting too late
.

Fewer burn
-
over accidents would happe
n if

people could
explain what the potential of the fire is in their situation. The
Campbell Prediction System
provides the
logic and language to do so.

This project will codify fire behavior observations as GIS data elements and analyze them using data
mi
ning and machine learning techniques to determine the potential fire behaviors. The goal is to
graphically render the potential fire behaviors relative to time and space on a 3D terrain viewer and to
generate maps that highlight both dangerous and opportun
istic fire behaviors situations.

Business Objectives and Success Criteria

Business Opportunity

The current state
-
of
-
the
-
art fire modeling software does little to assist in tactical suppression efforts.
Computer
-
aided wildland fire predictions can be improv
ed. Fireground operations can benefit from
state
-
of
-
the
-
art GIS enabled application. The most prominent fire modeling applications in use include

the following (
overviews from FireModels.org,
see
http://www.firemo
dels.org

for complete
descriptions)
:


BehavePlus


Fire Modeling System

The BehavePlus fire modeling system is a PC
-
based program that is a collection of models that describe
fire behavior, fire effects, and the fire environment. It is a flexible system
that produces tables, graphs,
and simple diagrams and can be used for a multitude of fire management applications. BehavePlus is the
successor to the BEHAVE fire behavior prediction and fuel modeling system (Andrews 1986, Andrews
and Chase 1989, Burgan and

Rothermel 1984, Andrews and Bradshaw 1990). It is called the BehavePlus
fire modeling system to reflect its expanded scope. Development continues with the addition of fire
modeling capabilities and features to facilitate application.



Can be considered a '
point' system.



Each calculation is for a set of uniform conditions.



Rarely is a single calculation done.



The user looks at the effect of a range of values on the results.

Project Charter for
Wildfire Management Tool

Page
2




Input is entered by the user. GIS data are not used.



Results are in the form of
tables, graphs, and simple diagrams.

FARSITE



Fire Area Simulator

FARSITE is a fire behavior and growth simulator for use on Windows computers. It is used by Fire
Behavior Analysts from the USDA FS, USDI NPS, USDI BLM, and USDI BIA, and is taught in the S
493
course. FARSITE is designed for use by trained, professional wildland fire planners and managers familiar
with fuels, weather, topography, wildfire situations, and the associated concepts and terminology.



Automatically computes wildfire growth and beha
vior for long time periods under
heterogeneous conditions of terrain, fuels, and weather.



Uses existing fire behavior models for surface and crown fires, post
-
frontal combustion, and fuel
moisture.



It is a deterministic model, meaning that you can relate

simulation results directly to your
inputs.



Produces outputs that are compatible with PC and Workstation graphics and GIS software for
later analysis and display.



Can simulate air and ground suppression actions.



Can be used for fire gaming, asking mult
iple "what
-
if" questions and comparing the results.



Accepts both GRASS and ARC/INFO GIS raster data themes.

FlamMap



Fire Mapping and Analysis System

FlamMap is a fire behavior mapping and analysis program that computes potential fire behavior
character
istics (spread rate, flame length, fireline intensity, etc.) over an entire FARSITE landscape for
constant weather and fuel moisture conditions.

FlamMap software creates raster maps of potential fire behavior characteristics (spread rate, flame
length, cr
own fire activity, etc.) and environmental conditions (dead fuel moistures, mid
-
flame wind
speeds, & solar irradiance) over an entire FARSITE landscape. These raster maps can be viewed in
FlamMap or exported for use in a GIS, image, or word processor.

Fla
mMap is not a replacement for FARSITE or a complete fire growth simulation model. There is no
temporal component in FlamMap. It uses spatial information on topography and fuels to calculate fire
behavior characteristics at one instant.



It uses the same spa
tial and tabular data as FARSITE;



It incorporates the following fire behavior models;



FlamMap runs under Microsoft Windows operating systems (Windows 95, 98, me, NT, 2000,
and XP) and features a graphical user interface.



Users may need the support of a
geographic information system (GIS) analyst to use FlamMap
because it requires spatial coincident landscape raster information to run.

FSPro


Fire Spread Probability



Probability of fire spread from a known perimeter or point.

Project Charter for
Wildfire Management Tool

Page
3




Not a fire perimeter like FA
RSITE.



Not a projection of fire size.



Results are based on thousands of FARSITE simulations for simulated weather sequences.



FSPro modeling requires computing power beyond that available on a personal computer.

Business Objectives

BO
-
1:

Provide an effective training tool for
the Campbell Prediction System

method
.

This
tool should be usable by both the student and the teacher.



Scale: The number of installations.



Meter: Internet download logs; software distribution channels.

BO
-
2:

Provide
a system, to be used on active fires, that reduces loss of life and improves
the odds of suppression efforts through the application of tactics derived from the
Campbell Prediction System
.



Scale: The number of usages on fires



Meter: Number of IAPs maps
with identifying signature or watermark;
number of post
-
incident uploads to central repository.

BO
-
3:

Promote the use of the
Campbell Prediction System
on the fireground.



Scale: Use of CPS language and terminology



Meter: Terms, verbiage and symbols us
ed in incident action plans.

BO
-
4:

Create the opportunity to
re
write

or update the Campbell Prediction System
book

with this software as significant addition to the current text.

BO
-
5:

Create the opportunity to provide software support services.

Success Criteria

SC
-
1:

Adoption
of CPS
by local, state and federal agencies.

SC
-
2:

Adoption
of CPS
in Europe and Australia.

SC
-
3:

Requests for software training, documentation and support.

Project Charter for
Wildfire Management Tool

Page
4


Stakeholders

Stakeholder

Major Benefits

Attitudes

Win
Conditions

Constraints

Bruce Schubert

Project Sponsor

Continuing development of
software architecture and
programming

skills
;
explore new technologies.

Affinity for
and history
with fire
service;

High number of

d
ownloads
;
internet metrics

Time

Doug
Campbell

CPS
Domain
Expert

Increased visibility and
acceptance of CPS
training

and methods

Strong
supporter

Adoption of CPS
training by Fed
eral

and State
agencies

Retired

User Class #1





User Class #n





etc.





Vision

For

wildland firefighters and incident command
personnel

engaged in the
suppression of wildland fires
w
ho

need tactical decision support tools

to
ensure the safety of firefighters and the effective use of firefighting resources
,
t
he

Wildfire Management Tool
i
s a
decision support system

and visualization
tool

t
hat

predicts the potential fire behavior on the fireground

based on the
CPS method
;

u
nlike

BehavePlus and
FARSITE

et al

t
his

product

uses on
-
scene
fire behavior observations in addition to fire behavior calculations to identify
both when and where
trigger points and opportunities
for control exist on the
fireground.

Project Scope

The goal is to develop a computer system, “… that can use

a wildland fire’s ground truths to project
the

thresholds of control as well as the trigger points of change and the alignment runs.”



Doug
Campbell.


The system will learn to classify fire behavior based on actual fire behavior observations (ground trut
hs)
collected from the fireground. The system will blend the technologies of GIS and data mining (machine
learning) to predict potential fire behavior in the unburned landscape. This information will be used in
the planning of safety and suppression effort
s on the active fire.


This system will allow the user to visualize the fireground and recognize a fire’s potential via graphical
output including:



Fire progression maps


the fire’s history



Actual

fire behavior observations


these are the ground truths

Project Charter for
Wildfire Management Tool

Page
5




P
otential

fire behavior in unburned areas


this is what the system is to discover



Projected
trigger points



the points at which fire behavior has good potential to change



Tracks of the
alignment of forces


these lines symbolize where the fire has high po
tential to
make head
-
fire runs

To accomplish the above, the system will need several inputs. First and foremost are the fire behavior
observations. These observations are both spatial and temporal. They describe when and where the
observed fire behavior oc
curred. Each observation includes flame length, flame type (head, flanking, or
heel), weather conditions and plume effects. Conditions defined by the landscape will be extracted by
using GIS technologies.


For inputs, the system will consume standard GIS r
aster data layers such as elevation, slope, aspect, and
fuels. Raster layers may also include fuel temperatures in the form of georeferenced aerial IR imagery.
Additional GIS layers may include raster datasets describing fuel treatments and suppression eff
orts. The
fire perimeter and the fire behavior observations will be represented in vector data layers.


Global data inputs will include wind, weather, and fire danger information. This data may be temporal in
nature, varying from day to day or from time o
f day.


The intersection of a fire behavior observation with the other spatial and temporal input layers produces
a list of attributes which become an example, or
instance,

of fire behavior to the machine learning
scheme. All of the instances collected ove
r the life of a fire become the training and test data used in the
learning scheme. From these instances, the system will learn a way to classify potential fire behavior in
the unburned landscape.


The system will retain the fire behavior observations and
fire history in a persistent database. Over the
life of the system(s), the history of several fires can be accumulated and mined for information. During
initial attack, or when fire behavior observations are difficult to obtain, a model fire can be selecte
d
from the database and used instead.



Figure 1. Context Diagram

Project Charter for
Wildfire Management Tool

Page
6




Major Features

FE
-
1:

GIS features include importing raster and vector data such as fire progression
shapefiles, FARSITE landscape files, LANDFIRE datasets and georeferenced imagery
(e
.g., maps, aerial photography, and IR imagery).

FE
-
2:

Editing features include the ability place and annotate fire behavior observations on the
landscape via drawing tools.

FE
-
3:

Analysis features include the ability to discover the potential
fire behavior across the
landscape by examining the past and current fire behavior characteristics and the
conditions in which they occurred. The system can determine where and when the
trigger points occur and where the forces are in alignment.

FE
-
4:

Rendering features include the ability to display the potential fire behaviors across the
landscape; this display can be varied by time
-
of
-
day or it can set to display the
maximum potential fire behaviors. Trigger points and aligned forces can be visualiz
ed.

FE
-
5:

Output capabilities include producing fire progression maps and IAP maps which
include standard ICS symbology and CPS symbology including Trigger Points,
Alignment Runs and Time Tags.

FE
-
6:

Retention capabilities include uploaded and s
toring the fire history to a data warehouse
for use in
data mining and machine learning.


Assumptions and Dependencies

DE
-
1:

NASA WorldWind Java SDK

DE
-
2:

VisAD Visualization Toolkit

DE
-
3:

NetBeans Platform SDK

Constraints

Dimension

Constraint

(state
limits)

Driver

(state objective)

Degree of Freedom

(state allowable
range)

Features



Complete freedom to
explore technologies and
methods to

best
implement the feature
set.


Quality


Product is designed to
showcase capabilities
and

to

promote CPS

Project Charter for
Wildfire Management Tool

Page
7


method

to end
-
users.

Cost

Open source project
developed out of personal
budget; budget limited to
domain support and
development tools; funds for
supporting development of
internet database support is
limited.



Schedule



Milestones are arbitrary
set to coi
ncide with
opportunities to
demonstrate functionality
to interested parties.

Staff

1
architect/
developer initially;
open source
community
support anticipated after
project develops
momentum



Milestones

<Include a list of major project milestones and key

deliverables, their target dates, and the team role or
individual who is responsible for each one. It's not necessary to include the target date for each milestone
unless they are fixed constraints. The following table illustrates some typical milestones;

change this list
as appropriate for your project.>


Event or Deliverable

Target Date

Responsibility

Project charter
established



Project plan completed



Project plan approved



Project team assembled



Project execution initiated



Project
execution completed



Customer acceptance



Project closed out



Business Risks

<Summarize the major business risks associated with this project, such as marketplace competition,
timing issues, user acceptance, implementation issues, or possible negativ
e impacts on the business.
Estimate the severity of each risk’s potential impact and identify any risk mitigation actions that could be
taken. This is not the place for the project’s overall risk list.>

Project Charter for
Wildfire Management Tool

Page
8



Risk

Probability

Impact

Mitigation

Rejection by
Federal agencies




Demand for
development
services that
exceed capabilities








Resources

Resource

Description and Source

Bruce Schubert


Doug Campbell





Project Charter for
Wildfire Management Tool

Page
9


Revision History

Name

Date

Reason For Changes

Version

Bruce Schubert

Oct 24, 2009

Updated

1.1

Bruce Schubert

Sept 9, 2012

Revised content to reflect project name change
from CPS to WMT.

1.2