Global STEG Market Outlook - Eskom

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Nov 21, 2013 (3 years and 9 months ago)

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GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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GLOBAL
STEG

MARKET OUTLOOK

ESKOM
CSP

AND SOLAR AUGMENTATION
CONFERENCE,
JOHANNESBURG

26 AUGUST 2013

DEREK
CAMPBELL

GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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THE DEFINITIVE SOURCE OF INSIGHT, DATA AND NEWS
ON THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE ENERGY SECTOR

San Francisco

Sao Paulo

Washington

New York

Cape Town

Sydney

London

Beijing

New
Delhi


Hong Kong

Tokyo


Singapore

Zurich

GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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COVERAGE: UNIQUE BREADTH....

Wind

Solar

Geothermal

Biofuels, Biomass & Waste
to Energy

RENEWABLE
ENERGY

Smart Grid & Demand
Response,

Power Storage,

Advanced Transportation,

Energy Efficiency

ENERGY
-
SMART
TECHNOLOGIES

CCS

WATER

EU ETS

Australia

Global / Kyoto

North America

CARBON MARKETS

EU RECs

North America RECs

Asian RECs

RENEWABLE
ENERGY
CERTIFICATES

POWER

SECTORS

MARKETS

GAS

GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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CONTENTS


1. CURRENT STATE OF THE MARKET

2. POTENTIAL TO REDUCE LCOE

4. 2014 AND BEYOND

3. IMPLICATIONS OF NATURAL GAS ON STEG

GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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NEW BUILD ASSET FINANCE OF
STEG

PROJECTS BY
REGION, 2005
-
2012 ($
BN
)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0.04
1.2
1.9
4.5
5.6
2.4
19.3
5.3
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
ASOC
AMER
EMEA
GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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GLOBAL SOLAR THERMAL CAPACITY, 1995
-
2013 (MW)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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ABANDONED
STEG

PROJECTS (MW)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

50
255
729
934
1,654
2,135
1,633
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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WHY THE SLOWDOWN?


Initial capital expenditure is high and there have been
bankruptcies as companies struggle with liquidity


Partly in consequence of runaway PV build (and also the
Spanish debt crisis), government support has been removed or
switched to PV. PV wins solar tenders.


Rapid decline of PV costs makes STEG
a less attractive
option for generating clean energy from large sunny areas


PV


POLICY
SUPPORT


FINANCE


Increasing concern over availability of water resources for
cooling and washing


WATER

GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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/ / / /


CONTENTS


1. CURRENT STATE OF THE
MARKET

2. POTENTIAL TO REDUCE LCOE

4. 2014 AND BEYOND

3. IMPLICATIONS OF NATURAL GAS ON STEG

GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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/ / / /


SOLAR THERMAL
LCOE’S ($/
MWH
)

Source:
Bloomberg New Energy
Finance

GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION


Cost of components (
eg

mirrors, steam
turbines) is extremely high


Each plant is designed differently, so
skilled engineers are required and
customisation difficult





Reducing component costs through
optimising design to use less material, or
lower cost material, or to improve
efficiency


Achieve economies of scale through
increasing the plant size


Add storage, or
hybridise

STEG with
fossil fuel, to increase
utilisation

of the
turbine. This can also help STEG power
output match power demand


something PV or wind cannot do

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

CURRENT COST

REDUCING COSTS

GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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CONTENTS


1. CURRENT STATE OF THE
MARKET

2. POTENTIAL TO REDUCE LCOE

4. 2014 AND BEYOND

3. IMPLICATIONS OF NATURAL GAS ON STEG

GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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/ / / /


GAS EFFECTS ON STEG


Gas reserves risen by 34%
between 2000
-
2012



Large pipeline of LNG terminals
and exploration



Cheaper gas means cheaper
electricity



Gas sets the price of electricity and
reduces peak hour prices for STEG


Source: B.P, Bloomberg New Energy Finance

TCM

BCM

0
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
3,600
4,000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Consumption
Production
Reserves
GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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LCOE IN 2013 ($/MWH)


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Coal fired
Natural gas CCGT
CHP
Nuclear
Small hydro
Large hydro
Biomass
-
anaerobic digestion
Landfill gas
Geothermal
-
flash plant
Biomass
-
incineration
Municipal solid waste
Wind
-
onshore
Geothermal
-
binary plant
PV
-
c
-
Si
Biomass
-
gasification
PV
-
c
-
Si tracking
PV
-
thin film
STEG
-
tower & heliostat

STEG
-
parabolic trough
Wind
-
offshore
Fuel cells
STEG
-
parabolic trough + storage
STEG
-
tower & heliostat
STEG
-
LFR
Marine
-
tidal
Marine
-
wave
Global LCOE range
Regional scenarios
Q1 2013 central
Q2 2013 central
1059
861
531
GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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/ / / /


CONTENTS


1. CURRENT STATE OF THE
MARKET

2. POTENTIAL TO REDUCE LCOE

4. 2014 AND BEYOND

3. IMPLICATIONS OF NATURAL GAS ON STEG

GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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2014 AND BEYOND


There will be some markets where the advantages of STEG over PV are
valued


for example, weak power grids, or countries with a strong evening
electricity demand peak


Several countries (Australia, Morocco, India) are also offering tenders for one
or two large STEG projects


Saudi
Arabian market 2.1GW in 2 rounds of bidding, by 2032
25GW
(although BNEF believes the long term target may be shifted towards PV)


Cost reductions and technology improvements continue to be made by
companies like
BrightSource

and
Abengoa
, which are building plants and
gaining the experience to make the technology better


GLOBAL STEG MARKET OUTLOOK, 26 AUGUST 2013

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