Where is the growth coming from? Civil Society to the Rescue?

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Nov 14, 2013 (3 years and 5 months ago)

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Where is the growth coming from?

Civil Society to the Rescue?

Will Hutton


The rise of


扡搠捡灩瑡汩獭




Size of UK banking sector

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1880

1904

1928

1952

1976

2000

Banking sector assets (per cent of GDP)

Long
-
run equity capital ratios

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1880

1890

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Per cent

United Kingdom

United States

Source: US


Berger, A., Herring, R. and Szeg
ö, G. (1995). UK


Sheppard, D.K. (1971), British Bankers


Association, published accounts and Bank
calculations.

A BRAVE NEW WORLD: Recessions compared

Note: In the past it has taken between 36 and 48 months to return the level of output to where it
was at the start of the recession. Source: NIESR

Where have the jobs been coming from over the last 30
years?


Manufacturing


minus

3.8 million


Health and Social care


1.9 million


Professional, Scientific and Technical


1.5 million


Administration and Business Services


1.3 million


Education


1.1 million




Knowledge based industries defined by the OECD

Note: manufacturing classified by R&D intensity; services classified by ICT use and employment of graduates. Recreational and

cu
ltural industries recognised as
knowledge based by EU but not OECD, and includes libraries and museums.


Knowledge economy and the 1980s recession and
recovery

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

index 1980 =100

KE market based

KE public based

Manufacturing

Other Services

Knowledge economy and the 1990s recession and
recovery

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

index 1990=100

KE market based

KE public based

Manufacturing

Other Services

Market based knowledge services leading the current
jobs recovery

All figures UK workforce jobs, March 2010 to March 2011. Eurostat 2010 definitions of KE industries. KE market based
services include information and communication, financial, professional, technical and scientific services, and arts,
recreational and entertainment services. Other market services include distribution, transport, hospitality, real estate,
other services. Production is manufacturing, construction, energy and water supply. KE public based includes education,
health, and public administration. Total also includes agriculture and mining.

Knowledge based sectors leading the entrepreneurial
revival

Note: all figures employees, excluding health employment. Knowledge service industries are OECD definition and include busine
ss,

high tech,
and financial services. Other sectors include transport, retailing, hospitality and other services delivered by non
-
public organ
isations. SMEs
defined as all with less than 250 employees.

A short history of general purpose technologies
(GPTs)…

The Innovation Ecosystem


Access to

finance

Skills


Competition

Demand

Openness

Public research

Twenty
-
first century prospects ?

Grand Challenges


The mobile phone


Nanotechnologies


Energy from fusion


Advanced materials


Carbon sequestration


Space


Manage the nitrogen cycle


Water


Health informatics


Durable customised infrastructure


Customised medicine


The brain


Cyberspace security


Enhance virtual reality


Personalised learning


The rise of the experiential


authors of our own lives


Air travel



Customised cars


Formula One
forerunner for all of us



The adventure holiday



The shopping mall



The live gig



Virtual reality



The SIPP



The Sarkozy Index



etc etc

Some 21
st

century jobs


UK Dept of Business


Body parts manufacturing and storing


Pharming


cultivation of genetically modified crops


High rise farming


cultivation in skyscrapers


Personal brand consultants for social networking


Customised avatars as teaching aids


Space guides


Miniaturisation doctors


Old age well being advisers


Care assistants



Potential sectors…..



Average life expectancy of S and P 500 company 45 yrs in 1955


11 years today




Manuservices


in aerospace, pharmaceuticals, defence, high tech
engineering( cars, chemicals)


Low carbon economy


energy production, energy efficiency, green
manufacturing plus associated services


Life sciences


Creative and cultural industries


design, electronic/digital media
and publishing, games


High tech and business services


computer, business to business
services


Caring and servicing the newly young old


New Flexibilities


5/6 transformational GPTs likely during 50 year working life of a
2012 graduate


Open innovation business models new template


joint ventures,
openness, porousness ( Unilever and


open innovation
orchestrators

)


Average expectancy of firms around 10 years


All skills and professions likely to become obsolescent


Need to commit to constant reinvention


Responsibility for own health, pension and transitional support
between jobs


Vibrant civil society key platform for future growth


Some places are more innovative than others

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Proportion of employment in Private Sector Knowledge Intensive Industries (2008)

Total GVA growth 1995
-
2008

London

Milton Keynes

Edinburgh

Aldershot

Swindon

Derby

Cambridge

Reading

Stoke
-
on
-
Trent

Blackpool

Barnsley

Birkenhead

Mansfield

R
2
= 0.402

THE ENTERPRISING
STATE AND

GOOD CAPITALISM

Good capitalism


Embrace the new and recognise change is the new normal


Good ownership


stewardship and performance


Innovate, innovate, innovate


Human capital


Finance to grow


Flexicurity


Public and private co
-
create wealth

The Enterprising State:

A plan for public action and incentives for private
action



Action is needed to strengthen
innovation policy for the future in order
to turn the UK into a global innovation
hub:


Analyze where system failures occur
: What kind of
failures and what is the role of the actors and
institutions in causing these failures?


Evaluate current policies
: do they address the right
failures in the right way? Do they cause
inefficiencies in the innovation system?


Justify a plan for innovation policies
for the growth
of the UK economy

The Enterprising State:

A plan for public action and incentives for private
action

Innovation policy for short and long run growth is about:


Eliminating system failure


Increase economic value pie and productivity, by


Facilitate ‘technological timely’ and ‘matching/complementary’ formal and
informal institutions which are able to shape productive interactive processes in
which


innovative agents (firms and individuals, research institutions,
customers/demand, authorities, financial institutions/banks) can interact and
create value in an open innovation process.


THE ROLE OF

CIVIL SOCIETY


Flexicurity


a new social contract to support good

capitalism



From jobs as property to jobs as career building blocks in a fast
changing environment


An end to No compulsory redundancy


mutual worker co
-
operatives
hire labour tto SMEs with no redundancy costs but quid pro quo is
high investment in skills


Mutual provides a wage even when worker not formally employed
but worker agrees commitment to skills acquisition


Radical overhaul of education and skills curriculum


Northern Ireland Office is Employer of last resort


The Mutual co
-
operative issues bonds and may invest or lend to
SMEs

But how much can Northern Ireland do
alone?


Crucial juncture in Northern Ireland history


an end to the Irish tiger,
possible Scottish independence. Where is the growth model? What
does identity mean in a context of wrecked south and a fractured
union?


The public sector is constrained for a decade.


The only option is private sector dynamism


But most of the tools and cash to create institutions and spend run
out of Westminster


The Civil Society offer is the only potential unique selling point