Decision Models and Intelligent

natureplaygroundAI and Robotics

Nov 14, 2013 (3 years and 6 months ago)

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Introduction to Managerial Support Systems

Decision Models and Intelligent
Systems

Learning Objectives


Describe the concepts of management, decision making, and
computerized support for decision making


Describe decision models and the benefits of computer supported
decision making and experimentation


Define a decision support system (DSS) and the types of problems
with which they are associated


Describe data visualization and explain geographical information
systems and virtual reality


Describe artificial intelligence (AI)


Define an expert system and identify its components


Describe natural language processing and natural language
generation

Managers and Decision Making


Management is a process by which an organization achieves
its goals through the use of resources (people, money, energy,
materials, space, and time)


Resources are inputs, achieving goals is output, and a
manager’s success is often measured by the ratio between
inputs and outputs (productivity, profit, return on
investment, return on assets, etc.) for which they are
responsible

Managers and Decision Making


Managers have three basic roles:


Interpersonal roles


figurehead, leader, liaison


Informational roles


monitor, disseminator, spokesperson


Decisional roles


disturbance handler, resource allocator,
negotiator


Early information systems primarily supported the
informational roles


In this discussion we focus on more recent developments
where IT supports decisional roles

Decision Model Examples


Models are representations of problems


They vary by degree of abstraction:


Iconic (scale)


least abstract


Analog


Mathematical (quantitative)


Mental


most abstract

Benefits of Computer Supported
Decision Systems


Cost of virtual experimentation is lower


Compresses time


Manipulations are easier


Cost of mistakes is lower


Can evaluate risk and uncertainty


Can compare a large number of alternatives


Can be used for training

Why Managers Need IT Support


It is difficult to make good decisions without valid and
relevant information


Despite widespread information availability, making decisions
is becoming increasingly difficult due to the following trends:


Number of alternatives is increasing


Time pressure


Increased uncertainty


Need to rapidly access remote information, consult with
experts, or conduct a group decision
-
making session


Different IT solutions are needed depending on the problem
structure and the nature of decision

Decision Support Framework

Decision Support Systems


Decision support systems (DSS) combine models and data in
an attempt to solve semi
-
structured and some unstructured
problems with extensive user involvement


Models are simplified representations, or abstractions, of
reality


In the following we discuss several DSS components and
applications to illustrate some of the capabilities of these
systems

Geographic Information Systems


A geographic information system (GIS) is a computer
-
based
system for capturing, integrating, manipulating, and
displaying data using digitized maps


Its most distinguishing characteristic is that every record or
digital object has an identified geographical location


What are some current GIS applications?

Virtual Reality


There is no standard definition of virtual reality


The most common definitions usually describe virtual reality
(VR) as interactive, computer
-
generated, three
-
dimensional
graphics delivered to the user through a head
-
mounted
display


In VR, a person “believes” that what they are doing is real
even though it is artificially created


What are some current VR applications?

Intelligent Systems


Intelligent systems is a term that best describes the various
commercial applications of artificial intelligence


Artificial intelligence (AI) is a subfield of computer science
that is concerned with studying the thought processes of
humans and re
-
creating the effects of those processes via
machines, such as computers and robots


AI’s ultimate goal is to build machines that will mimic human
intelligence


An interesting test to determine whether a computer
exhibits intelligent behavior was designed by Alan Turing (the
Turing test)

Comparison of the Capabilities of
Natural versus Artificial Intelligence

Capabilities

Natural Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence

Preservation of knowledge

Perishable

Permanent

Duplication

and sharing of
knowledge

Difficult, expensive, takes time

Easy, fast, and cheap

when in
the right format

Total cost of knowledge

Can be erratic and inconsistent

Consistent and thorough

Documentability

of knowledge

Difficult, expensive

Fairly easy, inexpensive

Creativity

Can be very high

Low, uninspired

Use of sensory experiences

Direct and rich in possibilities

Limited

Recognizing patterns and
relationships

Fast, easy to explain

Getting better, but not as good
as humans

Reasoning

Makes use of a wide range of
experiences

Good only in narrow, focused,
stable domains

Expert Systems


When an organization has a complex decision to make or problem
to solve, it often turns to experts for advice


Expert systems (ESs) are computer systems that attempt to mimic
human experts by applying expertise in a specific domain


The transfer of expertise from an expert to a computer and then
to the user involves four activities:


Knowledge acquisition


Knowledge representation


Knowledge
inferencing


Knowledge transfer


What are some current ES applications?

Expert System Structure

Natural Language Processing and

Voice Technologies


Natural language processing (NLP) refers to communicating
with a computer in the user’s native language


Why is this a complex task?


Two types of NLP include:


Natural language understanding (or speech recognition)


Allows a computer to comprehend spoken instructions given in the user’s
everyday language


It’s easy to use, faster than typing, and provides manual freedom


Natural language generation (or voice synthesis)


Enables computers to produce everyday language as voice or text


Sounds are constructed from basic pre
-
recorded sound components


What are some voice technology applications?