Top Mega Trends in Russia

louisianabodyElectronics - Devices

Nov 21, 2013 (3 years and 8 months ago)

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Top Mega Trends in Russia

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Contents

1.
Economy: Russia Beyond Moscow
-

The Next Game Changers, Economic Engines
for Growth


Russia’s economic hotspots


cities, regions


Sources of economic growth


industries, products, services


Diversification away from oil and gas towards innovative economy

2.
Social Trends: Prosperity, Education and Social Mobility


Growing purchasing power of population and emergence of middle class; Social mobility


Higher demand for intangible products


entertainment, services, investment


Education


Federal Universities, National research centres


Solid technical knowledge vs. lack of managerial skills in Russia

3.
Healthcare as a National Security Doctrine: Health, Wellness and Wellbeing


From treatment to prevention


National drug manufacturing


Telemedicine and e
-
healthcare


Health insurance and private healthcare

3

Contents

4.
Urbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors


Moscow “Big City” project


Vladivostok


mega hub in the Far East


For discussion: Moscow
-

St. Petersburg Mega Corridor? (Mumbai
-
Delhi case
-
study)

5.
Infrastructure Development: the Silk Road of Modern Age and Beyond


Europe
-
Western China Highway: Russia


Kazakhstan


China


Development of Trans
-
Siberian Railway and era of high
-
speed rail


Regional air traffic growth and new aviation hubs


drivers and restraints

6.
Modern Russia


Modernization of obsolete infrastructure and manufacturing capacities


E
-
government / e
-
services as an alternative to paperwork of the Soviet era

7.
Back to Russia


Localization of manufacturing in Russia


hi
-
tech alternative to mass production in Asia


Reverse brain drain

4

Contents

8.
Key Technology Developments


Biotech (e.g. targeted drug delivery), nanotech, energy (e.g. floating nuclear station), LED lighting


Technology leapfrogging (e.g. from 2G to 4G/LTE)


Satellite technology for traffic management, weather control


Hybrid and electric vehicles

9.
“Smart” is the New Green


Smart meters, smart buildings, smart grid and smart cities


Other applications
-

smart traffic
-
lights, smart bandages, etc.

10.
Mega Events


Investments, infrastructure and technology, Russia brand promotion, mass sport industry:


APEC Summit (Vladivostok, 2012)


Winter Olympics (Sochi, 2014)


Formula 1 Grand Prix (Sochi, 2014)


Soccer World Cup (2018)

5

Mega Trends for
Skolkovo

working groups

1.
Social Trends: Prosperity, Education and Social Mobility


Growing purchasing power of population and emergence of middle class; Social mobility


Higher demand for intangible products


entertainment, services, investment


Education


Federal Universities, National research centres


Solid technical knowledge vs. lack of managerial skills in Russia

2.
Urbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors


Moscow “Big City” project


Vladivostok


mega hub in the Far East


For discussion: Moscow
-

St. Petersburg Mega Corridor? (Mumbai
-
Delhi case
-
study)

3.
Modern Russia


Modernization of obsolete infrastructure and manufacturing capacities


E
-
government / e
-
services as an alternative to paperwork of the Soviet era

4.
Back to Russia


Localization of manufacturing in Russia


hi
-
tech alternative to mass production in Asia


Reverse brain drain

5.
Mega Events


Investments, infrastructure and technology, Russia brand promotion, mass sport industry:


APEC Summit (Vladivostok, 2012)


Winter Olympics (
Sochi
, 2014)


Formula 1 Grand Prix (
Sochi
, 2014)


Soccer World Cup (2018)



6

Guidelines and useful hints

7

Guidelines

Approach and methodology:

create hypothesis based on economical, statistical data, press releases,
companies web sites and annual reviews, blogs and other secondary sources on information. Some new
trends and hypothesis besides mentioned in the short
-
list are always welcome but need to be discussed
and proved. Macro to micro trends analysis.


Structure:

hypothesis, some proving facts and data, analysis based on common sense, reliable scientific
and economical articles and investigations expert opinions (may include the interviews made by the
students themselves), visualization of ideas.


Frost & Sullivan role:

short
-
list of Mega Trends preparation, assistance with some data and primary
information. Moderation of discussions within working groups, assistance with data collection and analysis
techniques. Assistance with data visualization.


Requirements to collection and formulation arguments for new/ existing Mega Trend

Every trend realization (in general) should be supported with:


Existing or planned project or technology R&D better with announced financial plans or intentions,
proving the whole trend (time of realization, approx. amount of investments)


Announced government support, special legislation framework, government programs and initiatives,
co
-
investment initiatives.


Some data (e.g. backward statistics or current and future situation analysis, experts point of view, etc)
proving social, economic, technology, whatever, local or global trends.


Good examples or success stories proving the hypothesis (in Russia or in other countries as well).

And vice versa: if you think that of the trends for some reason won’t work for Russia you should be ready
to prove it with some valuable facts.

8

Social Trends: Prosperity, Education and Social Mobility

To analyse:


Middle class size (now and in 2020), its main characteristics (incl. distribution per country),
related economic trends (demands, development, interdependency with economic processes,
etc.)


Social mobility trends: economic, geographic and infrastructure aspects (benefits, threats).
Why do we need it? How it could be intensified?


Higher demand for intangible products


entertainment, services, investment (new services,
new markets and market opportunities)


Current and Future Education systems for Generation Y (announced plans and reforms),
necessities, main trends


globalization, education in Russia and abroad (statistics,
predictions), social effects, opportunities, benefits.

To think about:


Social thinking: social networks (current statistics, trends), social innovations,
personalization(new trends and applications)


Solid technical knowledge vs. lack of managerial skills in Russia (traditional forms of
education). Complex approach and reformation, new shape of high education: Federal
Universities, National research centres.





9

Urbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors

To analyse:


Moscow “Big City” project:


Announced plans and investments (opportunities, problems, concerns)


Development strategy (infrastructure, transport system, social aspects)


Investments and project realization period


Regional impact. Is it possible? Why do we need it?


Vladivostok


mega hub in the Far East:


Complex development of Vladivostok before and after APEC 2012 summit


Opportunities and problems for Vladivostok as a hub and connection point between Russia
and Asia. Possible locations
-
competitors.


Level of investments needed and announced (perspectives)


Regional impact. Why is it so important?

To think about:


Moscow
-

St. Petersburg Mega Corridor? (Mumbai
-
Delhi case
-
study)


Prerequisites for corridor creation (trends and examples),
costs and future opportunities


Project execution (plans, timing, possibility and necessity)


Russian urbanization trends in general. Another examples of Mega Regions/ corridors in Russia.

10

Modern Russia

To analyse:


Current and announced modernization programmes and initiatives (plans, investment level,
goals, realization period)


state and private trends,


Some industry examples: oil and gas (oil refining), and/or utilities (water/gas/electricity supply,
wastewater),


Expectations and impact on various industries (some related statistics could be useful)


New technologies application in industry and economy (how they could influence on current
situation or shape new trends),


E
-
government implementation in Russia (current situation, statistics, perspectives, comparison
with another countries
-

United Nations “E
-
government reports”, situation in different countries:
leaders and best practices to understand main trends.

To think about:


“Strategy 2020” state programme,


Business initiatives and expectations,


Various sectors opportunities: space, energy, ITC, etc.,


Russia: current state
vs

future opportunities : cost of paper services and e
-
government
approach (plans, budget spending). What do we actually gain and what we lose?

11

Back to Russia

To analyze:


Localization of manufacturing in Russia


hi
-
tech alternative to mass production in Asia region
(trends, reasons, opportunities, threats),


Different practical aspects: manufacturing capabilities, human capital, geographic position,
infrastructure),


Leading international companies and their plans in Russia: manufacturing localization, R&D,
etc.


Reverse brain drain process:


Is it truly exist?


Do people return or it’s just “brain circulation” (reasons, statistics, positive and negative
sides)?


Current trends and government plans and expectations

To think about:


Current position and Russian perspectives in global economy. Is “Back to Russia” possible
and why? Global experience of the same processes.


Reverse brain drain: globalization of modern science (volume of brain drain, cost for
economy, conditions for return


to analyse if it’s possible or not). Global trends.



12

Mega Events

To analyse:


Mega Events in Russia


APEC Summit (Vladivostok, 2012)


Winter Olympics (
Sochi
, 2014)


Formula 1 Grand Prix (
Sochi
, 2014)


Soccer World Cup (2018)


Different aspects: investments, infrastructure and technology (threats and opportunities)


Impact to national economy (direct and indirect): tourism, production, investments


Private and state approach and contribution,


Global experience: success stories and bad examples (London, Beijing, Mexico
-
2010
celebration programmes)


To think about:


Mega events as a part of national promotion strategy: does it really work?


Russia brand promotion: current image and perception, trends and the ways to improve


13

Examples

14

Case Study: Delhi
-
Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC)


One of the
Biggest Manmade Corridors; Completed by 2020

Estimated cost of
completion; funding
from Japanese
and
Indian
governments
on
a 50:50 basis

states

road

and rail link
length

each of 200
sq
km
size, projected tripling
of exports
in 5 years

$90

b
illion

7

9

7 emerging Mega
Cities
3 ports
, 6
airports
and
high
speed
f
reight lines

1,483

km

Industrial
zones

6

i
nvestment
regions

3

million
people

employment
opportunities, 70%

in
manufacturing and
processing

Investment Regions

Source and Photo Credits:
DMIC


to be integrated
along the corridor

15

Case Study:
Jaypee

Green Sports City

I
ndia's

First $1B Urban
Integrated City to be Completed by 2013

The
2,500
-
acre
Jaypee Greens Sports Complex in Noida, New Delhi,
is comprised
of
apartments and villas,
lakes
and canals. social clubs,
a motor
racing track,
a cricket stadium,
and other international sports centres.

Total Investment


Sports City Complex: $820 million


Additional Contract Fee (Formula One):
$175 million (
$35 million p.a. for 5 years)

Important Dates


Tentative
date
of completion:
2013

Lake
District

Cricket
Stadium

Golf
Course
and Green
Park

Motor
Racing
Track

Country
Homes

Residential Lake District
includes villas, town homes,
and
mid
-

to
high
-
rise
apartment
blocks.

18
-
hole
golf course and 18
km
of green boulevard across 215
acres of landscape,
waterways,
and recreational facilities.

25,000
-
seat
hockey stadium, a
go
-
karting

facility,
and a sports
academy have been planned.

Buddh

International Circuit, over
875 acres in
length
,

has already
hosted the very first F1 Motor
Race in India in October 2011.

Upcoming in
-
built cricket
stadium,
which boasts a
capacity of 10,000 people.

Country
-
style
homes with a
capacity to house a total of
more than 1.5
lakh

families.

Other
Sports
facilities

RESIDENTIAL & COMMERCIAL

SPORTS FACILITIES

Source:
Jaypee

Group (Company Website)

16

E
-
Governance in India:

Examples of Emerging G2G, G2C
,
and G2B Services in India

INTERACTIONS

G2G

SERVICES
(Examples)


E
-
Training
,
e
-
Payroll
,
Budget Control,
e
-
Funds
Transfer


e Files, Decision Support
System


E
-
Delivery
of Land
Records,
e
-
Payments
for
Utility Services, Electoral
Services


E
-
Registration


E
-
Licenses
and
e
-
Permits


Vehicle Tracking System


E
-
Licensing


E
-
Permits


E
-
Procurement
(
Pre
-

and
Post
-
Bid
)


E
-
Revenue
Collection


E
-
Business
and
e
-
Forms


G2C

G2B

IMPLICATIONS


Increase
efficiency
between different
functional
a
reas
of
government


Transparency for
stakeholders
in G2G
transactions


Efficient
delivery
of a
long range
of
public
services 24/7


One Stop Shop for all
G2C and B2C services


Cut
red tape
and
save
time


Reduce
operational costs
for
businesses


Increase
buying power


Transparency in bidding
process

MEDIUM


Installation
of

service
centres,

kiosks,
Internet, fax,

phone, e
-
mail, WAN,
data

servers,
application

servers



Source: 11th Report, Second Administrative Reforms Commission, “Promoting e
-
Governance”, Government of India, 2008


Government to
Government

Government to
Citizens

Government to
Business