Reliability Impacts of Climate Change Initiatives (RICCI): Technology Assessment

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Nov 21, 2013 (3 years and 11 months ago)

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Reliability Impacts of Climate Change
Initiatives (RICCI): Technology Assessment

Preliminary Results


NOT FOR CITATION

Mark Lauby

Director of Reliability Assessment and

Performance
Analysis

About NERC: Mission


Develop & enforce reliability standards


Assess current and future reliability


Analyze system events & recommend improved
practices


Encourage active participation by all stakeholders


Pursue mandatory standards in all areas of the
interconnection


To ensure the reliability of the North American
bulk power system

2

Risk Matrix


3

Emerging Issues Risk Evolution:
Consequence
Likelihood
High
High
Low



Greenhouse Gas
Regulations

Cyber Security

Transmission
Siting

Variable Generation
Issues

Reactive Power

Energy
Storage

Economy
Issues

1
-
5 Years

6
-
10 Years

Workforce
Issues

Smart Grid
& AMI

Likelihood

Consequence

Lower

Higher

Higher

2010 Emerging Issue Risk Assessment




Impacts of
Resource Mix
Changes to
System Stability
and
Frequency
Response
Changing
Resource Mix
Transmission
Operations
with Vital
Transmission
Out
-
of
-
Service
During
Upgrades
Diminishing
Frequency
Response
Uncertainty of
Sustained
Participation in
Demand Response
Consistent
Modeling of
Remote
Resources
Likelihood
High
Low
Consequence
High
Low
Cross
-
industry communication and coordination is
key to successful planning and operations

System: A Traditional View

Demand

Conventional &
Hydro Generation

reliability

reliability

Distribution

Bulk Power System

Over the past 60 years, we’ve divided the “grid” into two separate systems. Reliability
requirements are different for each system.

System: A Traditional View

Demand

Conventional &
Hydro Generation

Local Drivers


Policy

Security

Economic

Regional Drivers


Policy

Security

Economic

reliability

reliability

Distribution

Bulk Power System

Policy and other drivers of development developed along the same line


factors that
affected one system did not necessarily affect the other.

The System Begins to Change

Demand

Conventional &
Hydro Generation

Demand Response

Nuclear

Energy Efficiency

reliability

reliability

Distribution

Bulk Power System

As new resources were added in the 1970’s and 80’s, bulk system reliability became more dependent
on distribution
-
level assets like demand response and energy efficiency. This began to blur the line
between the bulk power system and the distribution system.

The 21
st

Century Grid Emerges

Demand

CCS, Conventional
& Hydro Generation

Demand Response

Nuclear

Energy Efficiency

Plug
-
In Hybrid Electric
Vehicles / Storage

Rooftop Solar / Local
Wind Development

Wind & Variable
Generation

reliability

reliability

As we look to the future, new resources like rooftop solar panels, large
-
scale wind generation,
PHEV’s, and storage will bring unique characteristics to the grid that must be understood and
effectively managed to ensure reliable and cost
-
effective deployment.

Distribution

Bulk Power System

These new resources will be highly interdependent. Operational variability of large
-
scale wind generation can be effectively
balanced by flexible resources like demand response, plug
-
in hybrids, and energy storage. Distributed variable generation will r
ely
on conventional generation to ensure ancillary services and voltage and reactive support are available to maintain power qual
ity
.

The development and successful integration of these resources will require the industry to break
down traditional boundaries and take a holistic view of the system with reliability at its core.

The Smart Grid

Demand

Conventional &
Hydro Generation

Demand Response

Nuclear

Energy Efficiency

Plug
-
In Hybrid Electric
Vehicles / Storage

Rooftop Solar / Local
Wind Development

Wind & Variable
Generation

reliability

smart grid

The “Smart Grid” completes the picture of a fully integrated system without boundaries. Stretching from
synchro
-
phasors on the transmission system to smart appliances in the home, these systems will enable
the visualization and control needed to maintain operational reliability.

Common Challenges

Demand

CCS, Conventional
& Hydro Generation

Demand Response

Nuclear

Energy Efficiency

Plug
-
In Hybrid Electric
Vehicles / Storage

Rooftop Solar / Local
Wind Development

Wind & Variable
Generation

smart grid

cyber
security

reliability

Cyber security is one of the most important concerns for the 21
st

century grid and must be central to policy and
strategy. The potential for an attacker to access the system extends from meter to generator.

Common Drivers

Demand

CCS, Conventional
& Hydro Generation

Demand Response

Nuclear

Energy Efficiency

Plug
-
In Hybrid Electric
Vehicles / Storage

Rooftop Solar / Local
Wind Development

Wind & Variable
Generation

“smart
grid”

Drivers


Policy

Security

Economic

cyber
security

reliability

Building the 21
st

century grid requires a comprehensive and coordinated approach to policy
and resource development


looking at the grid as a whole, not as component parts.

The 21
st

Century Grid

Demand

CCS, Conventional
& Hydro Generation

Demand Response

Nuclear

Energy Efficiency

Plug
-
In Hybrid Electric
Vehicles / Storage

Rooftop Solar / Local
Wind Development

Wind & Variable
Generation

“smart
grid”

reliability

13

Integration of Variable Generation

Keeping Reliability in the Balance


Bulk power system reliability must be
maintained, regardless of the generation mix;


All generation must contribute to system
reliability within their physical capabilities; and


Industry standards and criteria must be fair,
transparent and performance
-
based.

New Renewable Capacity

2018 Variable Generation Capacity

1.
2,000 MW of Solar Generation

(Includes Existing, Future, and Conceptual Generation Resources

2,000 MW of Solar Generation

Less than 2,000 MW of Wind Generation

2,000 MW of Wind Generation

Less than 2,000 MW of Solar Generation

12,392 MW

18,125 MW

46,268 MW

62,041 MW

49,039 MW

45,700 MW

Variable Fuels Must Be Used Where

Available


Variable generation often located in areas remote from
demand centers and existing transmission infrastructure

Legend

Demand Centers

High Wind
Availability

2018 Projected Wind Installed Capacity
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
ERCOT
FRCC
MRO
NPCC
RFC
SERC
SPP
WECC
MW
Existing
Future
Conceptual
2018 Projected Wind Installed Capacity
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
ERCOT
FRCC
MRO
NPCC
RFC
SERC
SPP
WECC
MW
Existing
Future
Conceptual
2018 Projected Wind Installed Capacity

2018 Projected Wind On
-
Peak Capacity


229 GW of additional
installed wind capacity


38 GW expected on
-
peak
capacity


Expected on
-
peak
capacity range from
0
-
37% of total installed
capacity across different
subregions






Highlight

New Renewable Capacity

Sources of Flexibility

Conventional
Generation

Energy
Storage

Sub
-
Hourly
Generation
Scheduling

Electric
Vehicles

Variable
Generation
Power
Management
(Curtailment)

Demand
Response

Balancing Area
Options

18

Effective


Variable Generation Integration

19

Enhancing System Flexibility


Additional flexible resources
, such as
demand response, plug
-
in hybrid electric
vehicles, and energy storage may help
balance steep “ramps”


Deploying
complementary types of
variable generation

(e.g. wind and
solar),
leveraging fuel diversity

over
large geographic regions, and
advanced
control technologies

show promise in
managing unique operating
characteristics


Greater
access to larger pools of
generation and demand

may facilitate
the large
-
scale integration of variable
resources





Highlight

Demand Response

21

Smart Grid

Components to the Intelligent Network



Many are focused in vertical silos

Circuit

Transformers

AMI

Load Management


Capacitor Bank
Monitoring


Predictive Maintenance


Security (Video/Audio)


Load Management


OMS/DMS


Broadband over Power
Lines


Advanced SCADA


Mesh networks


Voltage Monitoring


Outage Detection


Theft Detection


Asset Failure Alarms


Smart substation


High Temperature
Superconducting (HTS)
Cables


Underground
Transmission


HTS Transformers



Real
-
Time Metering


TOU/CPP Pricing


Outage Monitoring


Voltage Monitoring



Smart switch


Smart thermostat


Real
-
time DLC
management and
verification


Load profiling


Aggregation of curtailed
load


Generation


Wind


Solar


Geothermal


Hydro


Biomass


Biofuels


Carbon capture


Nuclear


Carbon cap and trade


Storage technology


Capacitors

Consumer Portal

The 21
st

Century Grid

Demand

CCS, Conventional
& Hydro Generation

Demand Response

Nuclear

Energy Efficiency

Plug
-
In Hybrid Electric
Vehicles / Storage

Rooftop Solar / Local
Wind Development

Wind & Variable
Generation

“smart
grid”

reliabili
ty

24

Electric Power: Players, Drivers, Etc.

RELIABILITY

POLICITAL

REALITIES &

OBJECTIVES

$
-

FINANCE

ENVIRONMENT

REGULATORS

SOCIAL

CONCERNS

ENGINEERING

FEASIBILITY

POWER

INDUSTRY

NATIONAL

SECURITY

CONSUMERS

ELECTRIC

POWER

25

Smart Grid


Everybody has a vision…

26

The Smart Grid and Reliability

smart grid


The integration and application of real
-
time
monitoring, advanced sensing, communications,
analytics, and control, enabling the dynamic flow of
both energy and information to accommodate existing
and new forms of supply, delivery, and use in a
secure, reliable
,
and efficient electric power
system, from generation source to end
-
user.

Reliability Considerations


Coordination of controls and protection systems


Cyber security in planning, design, and operations


Ability to maintain voltage and frequency control


Disturbance ride
-
through (& intelligent reconnection)


System inertia


maintaining system stability


Modeling harmonics, frequency response, controls


Device interconnection standards


Increased reliance on distribution
-
level assets to meet
bulk system reliability requirements

28

The Smart Grid Landscape

utility
-
scale

generation

end users

BPS

distribution

AMI

PHEV

FACTS

HTS

PMU

STORAGE

DG/DER

DSM

STATCOM

DTM

DSTATCOM

SST

CFL

PLC

Smart

Appliances

IED

RTU

CLiC

WAM

HAN

IFM

DSCADA

PLC

SHN

CONCEPT

RTR

NOTE: Placement of items in the plane above is for concept discussion purposes.

29

The Smart Grid Landscape

utility
-
scale

generation

end users

BPS

distribution

FACTS

HTS

PMU

STORAGE

STATCOM

IED

RTU

CLiC

WAM

PLC

Bulk Power System

NERC’s Reliability Standards

apply to all users, owners, and

operators of the bulk power system

and typically apply to facilities

at the transmission and

generation level.

RTR

30

The Smart Grid Landscape

utility
-
scale

generation

end users

BPS

distribution

AMI

PHEV

DG/DER

DSM

DTM

DSTATCOM

SST

CFL

PLC

Smart

Appliances

HAN

IFM

DSCADA

SHN

Bulk Power System

Smart Grid may provide both

system benefits and

reliability considerations

to the distribution system

and bulk power system.

RTR

SYSTEM BENEFITS

RELIABILITY

CONSIDERATIONS

31

The Smart Grid Landscape

utility
-
scale

generation

end users

BPS

distribution

AMI

PHEV

DG/DER

DSM

DTM

DSTATCOM

SST

CFL

PLC

Smart

Appliances

HAN

IFM

DSCADA

SHN

Bulk Power System

AGGREGATE IMPACTS

PASS
-
THROUGH ATTACKS

The aggregate impacts of Smart

Grid on the distribution system

may impact the reliability

of the bulk power system.

Pass
-
through attacks from the

distribution system may also

present a threat to bulk power

system reliability.

RTR

32

RICCI Results

Reliability impacts of climate change initiatives:


Supply resource responses



Fuel mix changes and associated technologies


large
-
scale integration of smart grids,


integration of renewable, nuclear, and energy storage
resources.


Scenario Framework

RICCI Draft Report: Objective

Preliminary Results


NOT FOR CITATION

North America’s network designed for:


Large, centralized coal
-
fired plants located at a distance
from major load centers


Relatively controllable and constant generation


The unidirectional flow of electricity from large
-
scale
plants to consumers


Management practices that focus on altering the supply of
energy rather than demand

RICCI Draft Report: System Design

Preliminary Results


NOT FOR CITATION


Basis for Technology Assessment assumes
emission reductions below 2005 base


3% by 2012,


17% by 2020,


42% by 2030


83% by 2050


3 timeframes between the years 2010


2050
Horizon I: 1

10 yrs., Horizon II: 10

20 yrs., & Horizon III: 20+ yrs.


Outlines a systematic way to evaluate future
pathways/scenarios.


RICCI Draft Report: Basis for Assessment

Preliminary Results


NOT FOR CITATION




Climate Change Initiatives in North America


Overview of Published Scenarios and Models


Scenario Framework and Classification


Reliability Assessment of Technologies


3 time horizons


Generation & DSM, Transmission, Distribution


Conclusion and Recommendations


RICCI Draft Report: Report Contents

Preliminary Results


NOT FOR CITATION

RICCI Draft Report: 20+ Years

Generation and DSM

Preliminary Results


NOT FOR CITATION

Generation
and DSM
Technology Risk Matrix

Horizon III (20
-
plus years)


Technology

Potential
Reliability
Issue

Present Assumption

Additional Mitigating
Measures

Nuclear
Generation



Provides carbon
-
free
generation, but public not
completely comfortable with
the technology



Increased flexibility is not
developed for new designs



More operational reserve
may be required



New nuclear plants may
or may not be constructed



More than

300 new units
at existing and new sites
with a capacity of
1,000MW will be required
to replace coal fleet



More cycling capability
required of nuclear plants
to provide operational
flexibility



Lift emission restrictions of
gas
-
fired generation



Increased va
riable
renewable generation



Demand
-
side management



Conventional generation



Build more transmission

Geothermal



Geothermal plants not able
to supplement nuclear or
replace natural gas units



May offer small scale
relief for nuclear unless
technology
advances
significantly



Increase number of nuclear
units



Emission restrictions of
gas
-
fired generation lifted

Natural Gas
Generation



More stringent CO
2

regulations have made gas
units less economical



New build will be
replaced with geothermal,
hydro, or
nuclear units



Lift emission restrictions of
gas
-
fired generation


Energy Storage



Deployment of large
amounts of energy storage is
not cost effective



Larger energy storage is
likely to be commercially
available & cost effective



New pumped storage



Conventional generation



Curtail variable generation


RICCI Draft Report: 20+ Years

Transmission

Preliminary Results


NOT FOR CITATION

Transmission Reliability Impact

Horizon III (20
-
plus years)

Technology

Potential
Reliability
Issue

Present Assumption

Additional Mitigating
Measures

“Smart”
Transmission

Technologies



PMU, DTCR, and FACTS
will not deliver all promised
benefits and will not
sufficiently help manage and
relieve transmission
congestion



Cyber security



PMU, DTCR, and
FACTS have already
proven valuable for
transmission management



PMUs, FACTS, an
d
DTCR will be deployed
on the 69 kV and above
transmission system



Advanced protection
schemes will be
developed to
appropriately address
next
-
generation cyber
security concerns



Construction of new
and/or upgrades of
existing transmission
lines are options

to
relieve congestion



Ensure that cyber
-

and
physical security
consideration are part of
the planning, design,
and operations of the
bulk power system

Energy Storage



Deployment of large
amounts of energy storage is
not cost effective; energy
storage is
not deployed and
does not mitigate
transmission constraints



Larger and more powerful
energy storage devices
will be available



Curtail variable
generation or use other
technologies such as
Demand Response to
manage variability



Increased transmission
can sup
port needed
transactions.


RICCI Draft Report: 20+ Years

Distribution

Preliminary Results


NOT FOR CITATION

Distribution
Reliability Impact

Horizon III (20
-
plus years)

Technology

Potential Issue

Present Assumption

Additional Mitigating
Measures

Electric Vehicles and PEVs


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System operators will
have the ability to use
PEV as storage


Development and
implementation of
other energy storage
technologies will
provide operational
experience that can be
applied to large
-
scale
deployment of PEVs.


Additional demand
and carbon emission
-
free resources would
be required.

RICCI Draft Report: Scenario Framework

Preliminary Results


NOT FOR CITATION

High RPS

Requirements


Low RPS

Requirements

Low/Less
Stringent
GHG
Mandates

High/More

Stringent
GHG
Mandates

RICCI Draft Report: Key Observations

Preliminary Results


NOT FOR CITATION

The timing of carbon reduction targets will require an unprecedented shift in
North America’s resource mix.

Regional solutions are needed to respond to climate change initiatives, driven
by unique system characteristics and existing infrastructure.

The addition of new resources increases the need for transmission and energy
storage and balancing resources.

Carbon reduction from increasing demand
-
side management must be
balanced against potential reliability impacts.

Climate change efforts that increasingly depend on distribution system options
and applications can, in aggregate, impact bulk power system reliability.

RICCI: Recommendations

Preliminary Results


NOT
FOR CITATION

Tools and Actions for Mitigating
Resource Adequacy Issues

Advancing In
-
service Dates of Future or Conceptual Resources

Addition of New Resources Not yet Proposed

Increased Demand
-
Side Management and Conservation

Early Action to Mitigate Severe Losses

Increase in Transfers

Developing or Exploring Newer Technologies

Use of More Gas
-
Fired Generation

Repowering of Coal
-
Fired Generation



Meeting the carbon reduction goals: unprecedented
changes in 1,000 GW resource mix.


Industry’s knowledge represents nearly a century of
operational experience


A variety of demands on existing infrastructure will
be made to support the transition.

RICCI Draft Report: Challenges

Preliminary Results


NOT FOR CITATION

Question & Answer

Preliminary Results


NOT FOR CITATION