EMEA Macroeconomic Outlook April 2012x - Rockwell Automation

lizardgossypibomaManagement

Oct 28, 2013 (3 years and 11 months ago)

71 views

Copyright ©

2012 Rockwell
Automation, Inc. All rights reserved.

EMEA Macroeconomic
Outlook


April, 2012


1

Copyright ©
2012 Rockwell
Automation, Inc. All rights reserved.

G5 and Eurozone


Although the outlook for global growth has brightened slightly, the Eurozone forecast has been
revised downward. Eurozone manufacturing PMI is at a 34 month low of 45.9 with production falling
in the 4 biggest economies.


Only Austria (51.2) and Ireland (50.1) are in expansion mode


Germany’s PMI fell to a 33 month low of 46.2 in April vs 48.4 in March, with investment goods (machinery and plant
equipment) being the hardest hit sector.


The other Eurozone economies were all below the 50 mark, indicating declining output
:

France: 46.9 vs 46.7 in March;
Italy: 43.8 vs 47.8; Spain 43.5 vs 44.5 in Mar


The
UK Manufacturing
PMI

dropped to 50.5 from 51.9 (revised) in March


just barely over the 50 mark


The Eurozone core is being dragged down by weak demand both in domestic as well as export markets

Economic indicators reflect continued uncertainty about growth expectations in the G
-
5 & Eurozone.


GDP
growth outlook
for
the Eurozone in CY2012
was revised
slightly downward to
-
0.4% from
-
0.5%., after it was just
revised slightly upward in March.


Industrial
Production growth
forecast for the year was revised downward to
-
1.0 from
-
0.9% from
-
1.0%


The positive impact of infusion of money into the banking system and political stability in Spain and
Italy has faded. Demand has weakened not only within Europe, but also in key export markets.,
Limited access to credit, lower business confidence and slowly increasing unemployment are drags
on economic activity and have cause Europe to diverge from the US and the world.


Source: Global Insight / JP Morgan / HSBC / Markit/Credit Suisse/Financial Times/EuroStat

Macro Economic View
(I)

2

Copyright ©
2012 Rockwell
Automation, Inc. All rights reserved.

Emerging
Markets


R
elatively high commodity prices have supported growth in commodity exporting countries, especially
Russia, the Middle East and Africa, while hurting commodity importing countries such as in Eastern
Europe.


Russia’s YOY GDP
growth will remain strong
at 3.7%
in 2012, compared to 4.3%
in
2011.
Forecast for
2013 is
3.9%


PMI rose solidly to 52.9 vs 50.8 in Mar


Industrial
production is forecast to grow
at 3.0%
in CY2012 vs 4.7% in
CY 2011.



Middle East’s GDP growth
forecast is at 4.0%
in CY2012, compared
to 5.2%
in
2011. Forecast for 2013 is
4.5%


Saudi Arabia’s GDP growth forecast for CY2012 is 4.3%
vs

6.8% in CY2011.

PMI is
at 58.7 in Mar vs 59.6
in
Feb (for
non
-
oil producing
industries.) (Apr results are not yet published)


UAE‘s GDP growth forecast for CY2012
is
4
.0%
vs 5.4% in CY2011.

PMI is
at 53.5 vs 52.3 in Mar
(
for non
-
oil producing industries
.)


Qatar‘s
GDP growth forecast for 2012 is 7.0%
vs 14.0%
in CY2011.

Industrial production is
at 10.2%



Turkey’s growth forecasts have been raised over the past 2 months. GDP
growth
forecast has been raised
to 1.9% in 2012 (previous forecast was 1.0%). This compares to 8.5%
in 2011
. Forecast for 2013 is 4.8%.
The deceleration vs 2011 is
mainly driven by soft demand from Europe, plus fiscal tightening by the
government


PMI rose to 52.3 in Apr vs 49.6 in Mar


Industrial production is forecast to
grow 2.6%
in CY2012
vs 8.9% in CY2011.



Source: Global
Insight / JP Morgan / HSBC / Markit/Credit Suisse/Financial Times/EuroStat

Macro Economic View
(II)

3

Copyright ©
2012 Rockwell
Automation, Inc. All rights reserved.


Although the global economy is expanding,
weakness in European economies continues,
as a brief period of stabilization now falters,
with the euro crisis falring up yet again


The
Eurozone
is in a mild recession in 2012,
with 4 quarters of negative growth averaging
-
0.4%


Demand has weakened particularly for
investment goods in both domestic and
export markets


Pricing pressures are mounting. Low
demand means manufacturers cannot pass
price increases onto buyers


Although economic indicators point to recession
in much of Europe, the business conditions index
in Germany continues to rise


Economic indicators point to a global economic
recovery, with weak spots being the Eurozone
and oil prices.


Price pressures are leading businesses to
optimize production. There is pent up
investment demand


2013 should show stronger growth, assuming
the euro crisis is under control

Anticipated F12 Headwinds/Tailwinds

4

Headwinds

Tailwinds