Chapter 4: Decision Support and Artificial Intelligence

libyantawdryAI and Robotics

Oct 23, 2013 (4 years and 16 days ago)

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Chapter 4

Decision Support and Artificial
Intelligence: Brainpower for Your
Business


Copyright © 2010 by the McGraw
-
Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

McGraw
-
Hill/Irwin

STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMES

1.
Compare and contrast decision support
systems and geographic information
systems.

2.
Define expert systems and describe the
types of problem to which they are
applicable.

3.
Define neural networks and fuzzy logic and
the use of these AI tools.

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2

STUDENT LEARNING OUTCOMES

4.
Define genetic algorithms and list the
concepts on which they are based and the
types of problems they solve.

5.
Describe the four types of agent
-
based
technologies.

4
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3

AN NFL TEAM NEEDS MORE
THAN ATHLETIC ABILITY


The Patriots football team is a very
successful one


The team uses a decision support system to
analyze the opposition’s game


The software breaks down the game day
video into plays and player actions


With this information the Patriots can better
formulate their strategy

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AN NFL TEAM NEEDS MORE
THAN ATHLETIC ABILITY

1.
DSS with predictive analytics used to gain
the advantage in other sports? Choose a
sport and explain how that might work.

2.
Would allowing coaches to have laptops on
the field change the game appreciably?

3.
What other aspect of football could be
improved by decision support systems?

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5

INTRODUCTION


Phases of decision making

1.
Intelligence



find or recognize a problem, need,
or opportunity

2.
Design



consider possible ways of solving the
problem

3.
Choice



weigh the merits of each solution

4.
Implementation



carry out the solution

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6

Four Phases of Decision Making

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7

Types of Decisions You Face


Structured decision



processing a certain
information in a specified way so that you will
always get the right answer


Nonstructured decision



one for which
there may be several “right” answers, without
a sure way to get the right answer


Recurring decision


happens repeatedly


Nonrecurring (ad hoc) decision


one you
make infrequently

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Types of Decisions You Face

EASIEST

MOST
DIFFICULT

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CHAPTER ORGANIZATION

1.
Decision Support Systems


Learning outcome #1

2.
Geographic Information Systems


Learning outcome #1

3.
Expert Systems


Learning outcome #2

4.
Neural Networks and Fuzzy Logic


Learning outcome #3

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10

CHAPTER ORGANIZATION

5.
Genetic Algorithms


Learning outcome #4

6.
Intelligent Agents


Learning outcome #5

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DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS


Decision support system (DSS)



a highly
flexible and interactive system that is
designed to support decision making when
the problem is not structured


Decision support systems help you analyze,
but you must know how to solve the problem,
and how to use the results of the analysis

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12

Alliance between You and a DSS

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13

Components of a DSS


Model management component



consists
of both the DSS models and the model
management system


Data management component



stores and
maintains the information that you want your
DSS to use


User interface management component



allows you to communicate with the DSS

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14

Components of a DSS

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15

Predictive Analytics


Analytics (predictive analytics)



highly
computational process of measuring and
predicting customer behavior/attitudes


Uses combination of statistics, probability,
ops management methods, AI tools, data
mining, and predictive modeling


Types


Text


natural language analysis


Content


audio, video, graphical


Web


Web traffic analysis

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GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION
SYSTEMS


Geographic information system (GIS)



DSS designed specifically to analyze spatial
information


Spatial information is any information in map
form


Businesses use GIS software to analyze
information, generate business intelligence,
and make decisions

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17

Zillow GIS Software for Denver

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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE


DSSs and GISs support decision making; you
are still completely in charge


Artificial intelligence
, the science of making
machines imitate human thinking and
behavior, can replace human decision
making in some instances


Expert systems


Neural networks (and fuzzy logic)


Genetic algorithms


Intelligent agents (or agent
-
based technologies)

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EXPERT SYSTEMS


Expert (knowledge
-
based) system



an
artificial intelligence system that applies
reasoning capabilities to reach a conclusion


Used for


Diagnostic problems (what’s wrong?)


Prescriptive problems (what to do?)

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Traffic Light Expert System

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What Expert Systems Can and
Can’t Do


An expert system can


Reduce errors


Improve customer service


Reduce cost


An expert system can’t


Use common sense


Automate all processes

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NEURAL NETWORKS AND FUZZY
LOGIC


Neural network (artificial neural network or
ANN)



an artificial intelligence system that is
capable of finding and differentiating patterns

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Neural Networks Can…


Learn and adjust to new circumstances on
their own


Take part in massive parallel processing


Function without complete information


Cope with huge volumes of information


Analyze nonlinear relationships

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Fuzzy Logic


Fuzzy logic



a mathematical method of
handling imprecise or subjective information


Used to make ambiguous information such as
“short” usable in computer systems


Applications


Google’s search engine


Washing machines


Antilock breaks

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GENETIC ALGORITHMS


Genetic algorithm



an artificial intelligence
system that mimics the evolutionary, survival
-
of
-
the
-
fittest process to generate increasingly
better solutions to a problem

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26

Evolutionary Principles of
Genetic Algorithms

1.
Selection



or survival of the fittest or giving
preference to better outcomes

2.
Crossover



combining portions of good
outcomes to create even better outcomes

3.
Mutation



randomly trying combinations
and evaluating the success of each

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Genetic Algorithms Can…


Take thousands or even millions of possible
solutions and combine and recombine them
until it finds the optimal solution


Work in environments where no model of how
to find the right solution exists

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INTELLIGENT AGENTS


Intelligent agent



software that assists you,
or acts on your behalf, in performing
repetitive computer
-
related tasks


Types


Information agents


Monitoring
-
and
-
surveillance or predictive agents


Data
-
mining agents


User or personal agents

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29

Information Agents


Information Agents



intelligent agents that
search for information of some kind and bring
it back


Ex:

Buyer agent

or
shopping bot



an
intelligent agent on a Web site that helps you,
the customer, find products and services you
want

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Monitoring
-
and
-
Surveillance
Agents


Monitoring
-
and
-
surveillance (predictive)
agents



intelligent agents that constantly
observe and report on some entity of interest,
a network, or manufacturing equipment, for
example

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31

Data
-
Mining Agents


Data
-
mining agent



operates in a data
warehouse discovering information

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User Agents


User
or
personal agent



intelligent agent
that takes action on your behalf


Examples:


Prioritize e
-
mail


Act as gaming partner


Assemble customized news reports


Fill out forms for you


“Discuss” topics with you

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33

MULTI
-
AGENT SYSTEMS AND
AGENT
-
BASED MODELING


Biomimicry



learning from ecosystems
and adapting their characteristics to human
and organizational situations


Used to

1.
Learn how people
-
based systems behave

2.
Predict how they will behave under certain
circumstances

3.
Improve human systems to make them more
efficient and effective

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Agent
-
Based Modeling


Agent
-
based modeling



a way of
simulating human organizations using
multiple intelligent agents, each of which
follows a set of simple rules and can adapt to
changing conditions


Multi
-
agent system



groups of intelligent
agents have the ability to work independently
and to interact with each other

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Business Applications


Southwest Airlines


cargo routing


P&G


supply network optimization


Air Liquide America


reduce production and
distribution costs


Merck


distributing anti
-
AIDS drugs in Africa


Ford


balance production costs & consumer
demands


Edison Chouest


deploy service and supply
vessels

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Swarm Intelligence


Swarm (collective) intelligence


the
collective behavior of groups of simple agents
that are capable of devising solutions to
problems as they arise, eventually learning to
coherent global patterns

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Characteristics of Swarm
Intelligence


Flexibility


adaptable to change


Robustness


tasks are completed even if
some individuals are removed


Decentralization


each individual has a
simple job to do

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