Solar and the Grid: Challenges and Solutions

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Nov 21, 2013 (3 years and 9 months ago)

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Solar and the Grid:

Challenges and Solutions


American Solar Energy Society

Buffalo, NY

13 May 2009

Sam Baldwin

Chief Technology Officer and Member, Board of Directors

Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

U.S. Department of Energy

2

Context


Energy
-
Linked Challenges


Economy

economic development and growth; energy costs


Environment

local (particulates), regional (acid rain), global (GHGs)


Energy Security

foreign energy dependence, reliability, stability


Scale and Time Constants


Responses: EERE R&D Activities
($M)


Efficiency

FY06Ap FY08Ap FY09Ap ARRA FY10Req


Buildings

$ 68.3


$ 108.9 $ 140.0 $ 0 $ 237.7



Industry

$ 55.8


$ 64.4 $ 90.0 $ 50 $ 100.0


Vehicles

$ 178.4


$ 213.0 $ 273.2 $ 0 $ 333.3


Hydrogen

$ 153.5


$ 211.1 $ 168.9 $ 43 $ 68.2


Renewables


Biomass

$ 89.7


$ 198.2 $ 217.0 $ 786 $ 235.0


Wind/Water

$ 38.8


$ 49.5 $ 55/40 $ 118/
-

$ 75/30


Solar


$ 81.8


$ 156.1 $ 175.0 $ 0 $ 320.0


Geothermal

$ 22.8


$ 19.8 $ 44.0 $ 400 $ 50.0

Total R&D

$ 689 $1021 $1203.1 $1397 $1449.2

(PHEVs)






($2400)



Total EERE

$1162


$1722 $2178.5 $16800 $2318.6

3

Potential Impacts of GHG Emissions


Temperature Increases



Precipitation Changes


Glacier & Sea
-
Ice Loss


Water Availability



Wildfire Increases


Ecological Zone Shifts


Extinctions



Agricultural Zone Shifts


Agricultural Productivity



Ocean Acidification


Ocean Oxygen Levels


Sea Level Rise



Human Health Impacts



Feedback Effects

U.S.: 5.9 GT CO
2
/yr energy
-
related

World: 28.3 GT CO
2
/yr

Hoegh
-
Guldberg, et al, Science, V.318, pp.1737, 14 Dec. 2007

4

New York City
during the August
2003 blackout

Kristina Hamachi LaCommare, and Joseph H. Eto, LBNL

Costs of Power Interruptions

5

Time Constants


Political consensus building



~ 3
-
30+ years


Technical R&D





~10+


Production model



~ 4+


Financial





~ 2++


Market penetration



~10++


Capital stock turnover


Cars






~ 15


Appliances





~ 10
-
20


Industrial Equipment




~ 10
-
30/40+


Power plants





~ 40+


Buildings








~ 80


Urban form





~100’s



Lifetime of Greenhouse Gases


~10’s
-
1000’s


Reversal of Land Use Change


~100’s


Reversal of Extinctions




Never



Time available for significant action


??

6

A Renewable Electricity Future?

Photovoltaics

Concentrating Solar Power (CSP)

Smart Grid

Distributed Generation

Plug
-
in Hybrids

c
-
Si

Cu(In,Ga)Se
2

500x

Wind

ISSUES:


Supply


Storage


Integration


Policy


Human Resources

7

Renewable Electricity Futures


Power:
(Energy Information Administration)



2007: Total: 3900+ TWh;



Fossil: 3000 TWh; Nuclear: 800 Twh;


RE: 350 TWh Wind: 26 TWh Solar: 0.5 TWh


2030: Total: 5000 TWh


2050: Total: 6000 TWh?

ISSUES:


HOW FAR?


HOW FAST?


HOW WELL?


AT WHAT COST?


BEST PATHWAYS?


Efficiency:
The most important new supply


End
-
Use Systems


Smart End
-
Use Equipment (dispatched w/ PV)


Plug
-
In Hybrids/Smart Charging Stations


4100 Bmiles in 2030 3 miles/kWh (
Prius@3.8
)



1400 TWh/y


Renewable Energy
(notional numbers)


Biomass Power


Geothermal


Hydropower


Ocean Energy


Solar Photovoltaics / Battery Storage


Solar Thermal / Thermal Storage / Natural Gas


Solar:
2000 TWh/y



1500 GW


40 GW/y


Wind / CAES / Natural Gas


Wind:
2000 TWh/y



600 GW


15 GW/y


Transmission Infrastructure/Smart Grid

CHALLENGES


Efficiency Improvements.


Supply R&D: PV, CSP,
Wind, Geo
-
EGS.


Storage R&D: CAES, CSP
-
Thermal, Battery.


Materials Supply


Grid Integration


Manufacturing Ramp
-
up;
Supply
-
Chain Development


Policy


Training

8

Solar Energy


Price of electricity from grid
-
connected PV systems are ~20
¢/kWh
. (Down from
~$2.00/kWh in 1980). CdTe modules now <$1.00/W.


Nine parabolic trough plants with a total rated capacity of 354 MW have operated since
1985, with demonstrated system costs of ~14
¢/kWh. New plants in operation.

9

State
Land
Area (mi²)
Solar
Capacity
(GW)
Solar
Generation
Capacity (GWh)
AZ
19,279
2,468
5,836,517
CA
6,853
877
2,074,763
CO
2,124
272
643,105
NV
5,589
715
1,692,154
NM
15,156
1,940
4,588,417
TX
1,162
149
351,774
UT
3,564
456
1,078,879
Total
53,727
6,877
16,265,611
Concentrating Solar Power

U.S. Southwest

Cost Reduction Potential


Sargent & Lundy, WGA Solar Task Force
project CSP costs <$0.06/kWh assuming
RD&D: Scale
-
up~40%; Volume
Production~20%; Tech Development~40%

Renewable Energy Zones


Concentrated Development area to lower
infrastructure costs with one
-
time build
-
out


Better T&D and Environmental Planning: T&D
sized at 100% of REZ; Single EIS for REZ


Competitive selection of solar projects for
improved scheduling, financing, learning

Direct
-
Normal Solar Resource for the Southwest U.S.

Map and table

courtesy of NREL

Filters:

Transmission

>6.75 kWh/m
2
d

Environment X

Land Use X

Slope < 1%

Area > 1 km
2


5 acres/MW

27% annual CF

10

Solar R&D Opportunities


Photovoltaics
:


Improve materials/growth/characterization/devices, esp.CIGS, CdTe, Multi
-
junction
thin films, reduce thickness of active layers, increase production rates


Develop new/improved Transparent Conducting Oxides


Improve module and interconnect designs and performance


Improve packaging: encapsulants cure time/hermiticity/UV
-
resistance/etc


3
rd

Generation intermediate
-
band cells, Quantum Dot cells, etc.


Improve inverter performance/reliability/cost/surge prot.; plug & play; etc.


Improve BOS; Improve concentrator secondary optics for T>70 C, x100s


Concentrating Solar Thermal Power



Solar Field R&D
: Accounts for ~50
-
60% of capital cost


High
-
performance long
-
life low
-
cost reflectors with self
-
cleaning or
hydrophobic coatings; Increase optical accuracy and aiming.


Receiver: Stable, high temperature, high performance selective surfaces.


Thermal Storage
: Accounts for ~20
-
25% of capital cost


Stable, high temperature heat transfer and thermal storage materials to 600C
(1200 C for advanced technology), with low vapor pressure, low freezing
points, low cost ($15/kW
th
) , appropriate viscosity & density, etc.


Advanced CSP Systems
: Trough power block accounts for ~10
-
15% of capital
cost; @37.6% eff.


Brayton Cycles for higher temperature, higher efficiency


Cross
-
cutting Areas
:


Power electronics

wide
-
band gap materials; Reliable capacitors


Energy Storage

11

Wind Energy


Cost of wind power from 80 cents per kilowatt
-
hour in 1979 to a
current range of ~5+ cents per kWh (Class 5
-
6).


Low wind speed technology: x20 resource; x5 proximity


>8000 GW of available land
-
based wind resources


~600 GW at $0.06
-
0.10/kWh, including 500 miles of Transmission.


Offshore Resources.


Directly Employs 85,000 people in the U.S.

U.S. Wind Market Trend
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Capacity (MW)
Cost of Energy (cents/kWh*)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Capacity (MW)
Cost of Energy (cents/kWh*)
9245 MW
(End of 2005)
11,600


2006

~16,800


2007

Source: EERE/WTP

~25,500


2008

12

Typical Rotor Diameters
.75 MW
1.5 MW
2.5 MW
3.5 MW
5 MW
50m (164 ft)
66m (216 ft)
85m (279 ft)
100m (328 ft)
747
120m (394 ft)
Boeing
Wind Energy

GE Wind 1.5 MW

Source: EERE/WTP

Source: S. Succar, R. Williams, “CAES:

Theory, Resources, Applications…” 4/08

Geothermal Technologies


Current U.S. capacity is ~2,800 MW; 8,000 MW worldwide.


Current cost is 5 to 8
¢/kWh
; Down from 15
¢/kWh

in 1985


2010 goal: 3
-
5
¢/kWh
.

14

Plug
-
In Hybrids


Battery Storage, Power
Electronics, System Int.


A123
--

Nano
-
Structured
Iron
-
Phosphate Cathode.


Wind 200 GW

450 GW


50% Travel
<
25 mi./day; 70%
<
40 mi./day
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
<=5
5-10
10-15
15-20
20-25
25-30
30-35
35-40
40-45
45-50
50-55
55-60
60-65
65-70
70-75
75-80
80-85
85-90
90-95
95-100
100-105
105-110
110-115
115-120
120-125
125-130
130-135
135-140
140-145
145-150
>150
Mileage Interval
Frequency
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Cumulative Frequency
Frequency
Cumulative Frequency
Source: 2001 National Household Travel Survey
50%
70%
25 mi.
40 mi.
15

Grid Integration


Assess

potential effects of large
-
scale Wind/Solar deployment on grid
operations and reliability:

-
Behavior of solar/wind systems and
impacts on existing grid

-
Effects on central generation
maintenance and operation costs,
including peaking power plants


Engage

with utilities to mitigate
barriers to technology adoption

-
Prevent grid impacts from becoming
basis for market barriers, e.g. caps on
net metering and denied
interconnections to “preserve” grid

-
Provide utilities with needed
simulations, controls, and field demos


Develop

technologies for integration:

-
Smart Grid/Dispatch.


Barriers:

Variable output; Low capacity
factor; Located on weak circuits; Lack of
utility experience; Economics of
transmission work against wind/solar.


ISSUES


Geographic Diversity


Ramp Times


Islanding


System Interactions

16

Policy: Federal / State


Technology Transfer
: Partnerships; Solicitations; SBIR; Growth Fora; Incubators; IP


Investment Tax Credit (ITC): solar, fuel cells, geothermal, microturbines


30% credit for solar


Depreciation:
Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System

5 year class


Production Tax Credits


Renewable Portfolio Standards


Net Metering


Property & Sales Tax Exemptions


WGA Task Force
:

Exempt early CSP plants from state sales and property taxes;
Encourage 30 year PPAs; Foster large
-
block purchases


Systems Benefit Charges


State & Local Bonds


Permitting:
Streamline, as approp.


Codes & Standards


Education & Certification


Public Outreach


ISSUES


Planning Horizons


Targeting Incentives/Buy
-
down


Renewable Electricity Standards


Carbon Policy?

0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Annual Wind Installations
w/wo Production Tax Credit
No
PTC
No
PTC
No
PTC
17

State Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)

NV: 20%
by 2015
HI: 20% by 2020
TX: 5,880 MW
(~5.5%) by 2015
CA: 20%
by 2010
CO: 20%
by 2020
NM: 20%
by 2020
AZ: 15%
by 2025
MN: 25% by 2025
(Xcel 30% by 2020)
WI: different req.
by utility.
Goal
:
10% by 2015
NY: 24%
by 2013
ME: 40%
by 2017
MA: 4%
by 2009
CT: 23% by 2020
RI: 16%
by 2019
PA: 8% by 2020
NJ: 22.5% by 2021
MD: 20% by 2022
DC: 11% by 2022
MT: 15%
by 2015
DE: 20% by 2019
IL: 25%
by 2025
WA: 15%
by 2020
OR: 25%
by 2025
NH: 23.8%
by 2025
VA: 12% by 2022
VT: 10%
by 2012
RPS
RE Goal
MO: 11% by 2020
NC: 12.5% by 2021
Sources: Union of Concerned Scientists and NREL
ND: 10% by 2015
UT: 20%
by 2025
IA: 105 MW (~2%) by 1999
SD: 10% by 2015
OH: 12.5%
by 2024
18

Mobilizing Capital


Investment
(notional numbers)


Wind @ 15 GW/y


縤㈷⁂⽹


Solar @ 40 GW/y


縤㠰⁂⽹


Total


␱㄰ 䈯B


Offsets


Fossil @ 770/40


縤㌰ 䈯B


Fuel


縤砠䈯~


Issues


How to best mobilize capital
with the most leverage at the
minimum public expense?

19

Human Resources: Solar Decathlon

Carnegie Mellon; Cornell; Georgia Tech; Kansas State; Lawrence Technological University;
MIT; New York Institute of Technology; Pennsylvania State; Santa Clara University; Team
Montreal (
É
cole de Technologie Sup
é
rieure, Universit
é

de Montr
é
al, McGill University);
Technische Universit
ä
t Darmstadt; Texas A&M; Universidad Polit
é
cnica de Madrid;
Universidad de Puerto Rico; University of Colorado


Boulder; University of Cincinnati;
University of Illinois; University of Maryland; University of Missouri, Rolla; University of
Texas, Austin.

Architecture

Engineering

Market Viability

Communications

Comfort

Appliances

Hot Water

Lighting

Energy Balance

Getting Around

Source: STP


Issues


At $100K/cap, $100B/y


ㄠ䴠䩯1s


How can this scale be ramped up to quickly?


How can quality control best be maintained?


What outreach to state/local level will be most effective?

20

For more information


http://www.eere.energy.gov


Sam.Baldwin@ee.doe.gov