3 Steps to Zero Emissions-

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Nov 21, 2013 (3 years and 9 months ago)

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3 Steps to Zero Emissions
-


Intelligent Grid, Electric Cars and Solar Energy





Chris Dunstan

Research Principal
-

Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS

Presentation to ANZSES NSW

23 June 2009

Summary


Intelligent Grid Research Program


Network Investment: Bigger or smarter?


Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap


Electric Cars


Solar Energy


e.g. permanent Arctic
ice may disappear by
2030



Reduced ice albedo

(reflectivity)

= positive feedback

... the melting of
Greenland ice cap
may become
unstoppable and
raise global sea level
by 7 metres

International Climate Science Congress
(
Copenhagen March 2009)

Key Messages
:

“1. Climatic trends:



Recent observations show that greenhouse gas emissions and
many
aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of the
IPCC range of projections
.
Many key climate indicators are already moving
beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and
economy have developed and thrived.


These indicators include global mean surface temperature, sea
-
level rise, global ocean
temperature, Arctic sea ice extent, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events.
With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate,
leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts
.



climatecongress.ku.dk/
pdf
/
synthesisreport



Elements of Intelligent Grid

Power Stations

Transmission

Distribution


Customer

Sensors, data collection
and Automation:
Predictive and
“Self Healing”

Distributed Energy:



Peak Demand
Management
-

DSR



Energy Efficiency



Distributed Generation



Energy Storage



Smart Meters,



Time of Use pricing



Real time displays



Advanced Communications



Electric Cars

Transmission Data
Collection and Automation

Figure Source: Southern California Edison & CPUC

Using information, communications and
control technologies to integrate the electricity
network with “distributed energy” resources.


Intelligent Grid Research Program

1: Control

Methodology

of DG

2: Market

& Economic

Modelling

3: Optimal

Siting &

Dispatch

of DG

4: Instit Barriers,

Stakeholder

Engagement &

Economic

Modelling

5: I Grid

Social

Impacts

6: I Grid in

New

Housing

Development

7: Operational

Control &

Energy

Management

Economic

regulatory

barriers &

solutions



DANCE

Model:

Avoidable

Network

Costs



D
-
CODE

Model:

Costs of

Distributed

Energy

CSIRO

Institutional

Barriers


QUT

UTS

Curtin Uni

UniSA

Uni of Qld

Uni of Qld

QUT

Engagement:

Australian

Distributed

Energy

Roadmap


3
-
Year Collaborative Research (July 2008
-

June 2011)



Engagement with industry, regulators, policy makers, etc.

Aim:
to facilitate major greenhouse gas emission reductions by integrating
distributed energy technology with a more intelligent electricity network.

Networks and Climate Change

More Climate
Change

More
Greenhouse gas
emissions

More (fossil fuel)
power generation

More Network
Capacity

Electricity Supply
Interruptions

More Storms,
Heatwaves, etc

Networks and Climate Change

“$50 billion of further investment in national and local energy
grids is necessary to meet Australia’s carbon reduction
goals. If this doesn’t occur, we all face an increased risk of
being left to sweat out decades of long hot summers.

We know it is going to get warmer and we have to prepare for that


this last week has been a warning to us all


we need to act
today to climate change proof our networks and to be climate
change ready.”

-
Andrew Blyth,
CEO Energy Networks Association,

2 February 2009, Canberra

http://www.ena.asn.au/udocs/ena_020309_100854.pdf



Greenhouse Abatement Opportunities
-

USA

“United States could reduce emissions by 31% to 46% by 2030”

Greenhouse Abatement Opportunities
-

Australia


D
-
CODE:
Details and Cost of Distributed Energy

NSW Case Study:


Meeting NSW Electricity Needs to 2020

with lower costs and lower emissions



Scenarios for meeting the NSW power needs to 2020

Scenario 1


COAL
(approximates Owen Inquiry outcome)


1000 MW coal power station 2017


two 500 MW open cycle gas turbines in 2018 & 2019



Scenario 2


GAS
(~NEMMCO projections)


combination of open cycle and combined cycle gas


Scenario 3
-

Cogeneration and Demand Side Response


Scenario 4
-

Energy efficiency and Demand Side Response


Scenario 5
-

Combined distributed energy


energy efficiency, cogeneration, and demand side response, and


Allows 1000 MW coal fired capacity retirement in 2014/15.


12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2013/14

2014/15

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

2018/19

2019/20

CAPACITY (MW)

Exisiting or planned capacity

Demand side response

Cogeneration

Capacity needed for reliability





Energy efficiency

NSW capacity projections to 2020 with DE




$15

$17

$19

$21

$23

$25

$27

$29

$31

$33

$35

Coal

Gas

Cogen and DSR

Energy

efficiency and

DSR

Combined

distributed

energy

Billion $ 2009


2020


40

45

50

55

60

65

70

Existing supply
-

variable cost

Network capital
-

amortized cost

New supply
-

amortized capital cost

New supply
-

variable cost

87.6

86.4

85.4

84.7

79.2

75

80

85

90

Mt CO
2
-
e per year

Million Tonnes CO2
-
e in 2020

Scenario cumulative costs & 2020 emissions




Energy efficiency, cogeneration, and Demand Side
Response can meet capacity shortfall



Not acting on DE will mean higher:


energy consumption, greenhouse emissions, network
costs, generation costs, carbon abatement cost and
consumer power bills


So,
are

we investing in Distributed Energy?


Australian Energy Regulator’s

Network Pricing Decision (2009
-
14)


$16.9 billion

in Network Capital Expenditure (2009
-
14)


80% increase on the previous five years


$2,400 per person in NSW


$9.3 million per day


For Energy Australia customers


Average network prices increase by 99% (nominal)


up to
172% for domestic customers


Average

retail price to rise by ~40% (
excl
. CPRS cost)


Little direct support for Distributed Energy

Distribution Network Capital Expenditure


0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
$m p.a.
Financial Year
NSW
Qld
Vic
SA
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
$m p.a.

Financial Year

NSW
Qld
Vic
SA
Can we afford a much bigger grid and much smarter grid
at the same time?

Distribution Network Capital Expenditure


1





[1]

Energy Australia,
Revised Regulatory Proposal and Interim Submission
, January 2009, p. 190

Energy Australia Indicative Network Charges

Network Prices to Rise
(by up to 172%)


(Real Retail Prices up:
51% for small consumers; 34% for large consumers)

Energy Consumption Forecast to fall

(AER Determination, Fig. 6.2, p. 114)

Peak Demand Forecast to rise
(2.7% per annum)

Forecast Peak Demand Growth
5600
5800
6000
6200
6400
6600
6800
7000
2009–10
2010–11
2011–12
2012–13
2013–14
Year
MW
Original forecast
(June 2008)
Revised forecast
(January 2009)
AER Determination, Table 6.4

How to stimulate Distributed Energy investment?

DE Technology
Assessment:

Costs, Scale, Limitations


Institutional Barriers


What obstructs

cost
-
effective DE?

Status

(current and
progress)


Defining Distributed Energy

Energy Efficiency, Load Mgt, Distributed Generation


Demand Forecasting

Energy and Peak Load

(NEMMCO)

Policy Instruments


Can institutional barriers be
effectively overcome?


Avoidable Network Costs

(time and place)

Potential

(current and
future)

Policy Drivers


Why do stakeholders care
about DE?

Research and
Development


Proposed Network Investment

(time and place)

(NSPs)

Assumptions &

Scenario Analysis


Centralised Generation

Costs, Scale, Limitations

(NEM)

Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap

Roadmap
Elements


External Data

External Process

Avoidable network costs


Network Capacity Required
Sydney by 2012

>15MVA

<
-
10MVA

Avail. Capacity


Proposed Network Investment
Sydney to 2012


Indicative Network Investment
Deferral Value
($/MVA/yr)
-
Sydney
to 2012

DE Technology
Assessment:

Costs, Scale, Limitations


Institutional Barriers


What obstructs

cost
-
effective DE?

Status

(current and
progress)


Defining Distributed Energy

Energy Efficiency, Load Mgt, Distributed Generation


Demand Forecasting

Energy and Peak Load

(NEMMCO)

Policy Instruments


Can institutional barriers be
effectively overcome?


Avoidable Network Costs

(time and place)

Potential

(current and
future)

Policy Drivers


Why do stakeholders care
about DE?

Research and
Development


Proposed Network Investment

(time and place)

(NSPs)

Assumptions &

Scenario Analysis


Social Decision Making:

Political process;
Policy and Market Design

Optimisation & Outputs:

Costs, Prices, Emissions

Recommendations


Centralised Generation

Costs, Scale, Limitations

(NEM)

Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap

Consumer Acceptance


Will consumers accept DE?




Roadmap
Elements


External Data

External Process

Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles


Australia’s first PHEV
(Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle)

1.
Plug In

>
Bigger Battery

>
Socket & Charger to charge off

electricity grid

>
Reduce greenhouse emissions


(
if

renewable powered)

>
Reduces urban pollution

>
Much lower running costs


(but high battery costs)

What’s a Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)?

>
Has both petrol engine
and

electric motor and battery

>
Still runs on petrol only, but up to 50% more efficient


Engine does not idle, recovers braking energy, smaller capacity
engine, runs engine at more optimal speed


Reduces reliance on oil (and imports)


What’s a Plug
-
in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)?

c

More
oil use

Peak

Oil


Global Warming


Conventional
vehicle



petrol fuel


~20% efficient

Biofuel vehicle


renewable fuel



Competing land use,



biodiversity, food security


Electric vehicle (EV)



electric fuel, ~80% efficient



Limited range, Slow recharge

Hybrid Electric Vehicle
(HEV)


~40% efficient


Long range, quick refuel



petrol fuel

Plug
-
in Hybrid Electric
Vehicle (PHEV)


Electric & petrol fuel



~60% efficient


Long range, quick refuel


More
greenhouse
emissions


Why PHEVs?


PHEV Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Comparison of PHEV emissions charged from various power stations types

(Year 2010, 19,300 km per year, 30km electric range)

Source: EPRI
http://www.epri
-
reports.org/PHEV
-
ExecSum
-
vol1.pdf


Coal fired
electricity

Renewable
electricity

Conventional car

Fuel Cost Comparison

(Conventional petrol car vs PHEV per day for typical 30km commute)

$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
Conventional
(Camry)
Off Peak
Standard
(Continuous)
Green Power
Off Peak
Green Power
$/day
Electricity
Petrol
($1.40/l)

Petrol
($1.40/l)

Actual one
-
off battery cost

Fuel Cost Comparison

(Conventional petrol car vs PHEV per day for typical 30km commute)

Petrol
($1.40/l)

Estimated battery cost at
production line volumes

Fuel Cost Comparison

(Conventional petrol car vs PHEV per day for typical 30km commute)

Air Cond.

O/Peak
Water
heating

~8 kWh per day
= ~60 km in PHEV

Impact of PHEVs on

Average Residential Power Demand

(Summer Peak
-

NSW)

Air Cond.

Water
heating

~8 kWh per day
= >60 km in PHEV

PHEV charge
-
uncontrolled

Impact of PHEVs on

Average Residential Power Demand

(Summer Peak
-

NSW)

Air Cond.

Water
heating

~8 kWh per day
= ~60 km in PHEV

PHEV charge
-
controlled

Impact of PHEVs on

Average Residential Power Demand

(Summer Peak
-

NSW)

Impact of PHEVs on

Average Residential Power Demand

(Summer Peak
-

NSW)

Air Cond.

~8 kWh per day of
load removed

Average Residential Power Demand

(Summer Peak
-

NSW)

Air Cond.

Vehicle to Grid
load management
(peak load reduced)

Australia’s first V2G (Vehicle to Grid) electric car

Solar?

What does a Solar Feed in tariff look at from
a Intelligent Grid perspective?


1.
A Gross Tariff of at least 30cents/kWh fixed for the term
of the tariff.

2.
The term of the tariff should be at least 10 years from
the date of installation.

3.
If necessary, the
term

of the FiT should be reviewed,
rather than the
rate
.

4.
Eligibility should be open to all electricity consumers

5.
Consumers receiving the FiT should be required to
purchase power through a time of use tariff.

6.
This time of use tariff should be based on “net metering”

What’s next


Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap


Forum 1: Brisbane April 09: Introduction


Forum 2: Melbourne 14 July: Costs of Distributed Energy


Forum 3: Sydney August 09: Avoidable Network Costs


NSW Case Study Report release soon





Conclusions


Smart Grids, Electric Cars and Solar PV are strongly
complementary


We are unlikely to be able to afford a
much

bigger grid
and a
much

smarter grid at the same time


We need to make investment in distributed energy as
easy as investment in networks.


www.igrid.net.au








www.igrid.net.au