SPV Power Technology in India

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Nov 24, 2013 (3 years and 24 days ago)

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© LANCO Group, All Rights Reserved

SPV Power Technology in India

Satyendra

Kumar

Lanco

Solar, India

satyen.kumar@lancogroup.com

ASEAN
-
India

Workshop on Cooperation in New and Renewable Energy


05
-
06 Nov., 2012

Vigyan

Bhawan
, New Delhi



Power
Sector in
India


Role Solar Can Play

India’s Current Solar PV Installation Base

Agenda

SPV Technologies

Lessons Learned

Conclusions

24,867

17,061

16,891

13,654

11,217

8,071

7,931

7,149

6,435

4,759

2,875

2,631

2,232

778

436

126

0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Norway
Canada
UAE
USA
Australia
Japan
France
Germany
Russia
S. Africa
World Avg
China
Brazil
India
Pakistan
Nigeria
Kwh/annum

India lacks significantly in Per Capita
Consumption

Source: World Bank, CEA

1084

1050

280

233

194

138

125

119

104

102

0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
GW

India ranks

5th in terms of Installed
Capacity

Source: EIA, CEA

India


Electricity Opportunity

India per capita Electricity Consumption is lagging well behind World Average and this would
catch up fast owing to rising levels of Disposable Income

An average of 16 GW of power generation capacity installations required each year till 2020
to meet fast growing demand for electricity power

Source: D&B Industrial Research Service

India has huge potential for solar power deployment

Source: MNRE, Edelweiss
Research (As
at June30, 2012

Solar Power Density in India


India receives on an average 4
-
7kWh/m
2

of solar energy daily with
an average of 250
-
300 sunny days in a year


Rajasthan and Gujarat receive maximum radiation in the
range of 6

6.6 KWh per square meter


Cumulative grid connected Installed solar power capacity is quite
low in India


Accounting for a negligible proportion of India’s power
capacity


C
apacity additions in Indian solar industry have been miniscule as
compared to the additions globally


India
yet to optimally
utilize its
solar potential

Grid connected Solar Power

(Cumulative Capacity)

1,035 MW

Additions during last year (FY12)

446 MW

Off
-
grid Solar PV plants

(Cumulative Capacity)

85 MW

Solar Water Heating


Collector
Area

(Cumulative Capacity)

5.63 Mn Sq. m

Solar installed capacity


India

Source

*Potential
(MW)

Installed

(MW)

as on Jan’12

Wind Power

45,000

16,179

Biomass

16,000

1142

Small Hydro

15,000

3300

Cogeneration
-
Bagasse

3,500

1952

Waste to Energy

2,700

74

Solar

Unlimited

481

Source: * MNRE
-

Development of Conceptual Framework for REC
Mechanism

India Poised to be a Major Global Contributor

E&Y Solar energy attractiveness Index : India ranked 2
nd

in the world


only behind USA

Rank

Country

Installed
capacity (GW)
in 2011

Solar Power
Target

Clean Energy
Target

Key incentives

1

USA

4.6

2020 :~ 16
GW

17%

Production / Investment tax credit

2

India

0.5

2022 : 22 GW

15.90%

FiTs, REC, Capital subsidy

3

China

3.0

2015 : 9 GW

2020
: 50 GW

15% of primary
energy

Feed
-
in
-
Tariffs (FiTs), GBI for rooftop
an
biding
installed PV, Tax incentive
for PV

4

Italy

12.4

NA

17%

FiTs, REC, Tax incentive

5

Spain

5.3

2020 : 8
-
9
GW

20%

REC, Tax incentive

6

Australia

1.3

NA

20% of total
consumption

Generation Based Incentive (RBI),
Renewable Energy Certificate (REC)

7

Japan

5.0

2020 : 28 GW

22%

FiTs, REC, Tax incentive

8

Germany

25.0

2020 : 50
-
70
GW

35%

(
50% by 2030,
65% by 2040,
80% by 2050)

FiTs, REC, Tax incentive

India, USA rapidly advancing; EU slow
and steady



USA :


Continues to grow rapidly with a 300 MW
in Arizona receiving approvals. Expected
to remain the largest solar market in world
in near future


India :


Rapid growth seen in high potential solar
states of Rajasthan and Gujarat. Gujarat
launches Asia's largest solar park of 600
MW


China :


Many large
-
scale plants commissioned.
Hit by oversupply in the international
export market


Italy, Spain, Germany :


Affected by the sovereign debt crisis and
a weak future economic outlook of the
Euro

Global Solar Market Outlook

Source : Industry Research, Ernst & Young Report on Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness indices

Institutional Arrangement to support bundling of Solar Power

Strong
National Policy
Initiatives at the
Centre (JNNSM)

State Government

(Land, Water, Other
Sanctions)

Solar Power Developer

Central Electricity
Authority

(Technical Support)


National Thermal
Power Corporation
(NTPC)

NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam
(NVVN)

Buys


Bundles

Sells

State Electricity Boards

(Buyers of bundled power)

CERC

Determines Tariff

1 kWh Solar

4 kWh Thermal

Bundled 5 kWh at
INR 4.17/kWh


Comprehensive framework for development of solar power in India


Covers both solar power generation as well as manufacturing


Incorporates specific fiscal / monetary incentives


Objectives


Installed solar power generation capacity
of 20 GW by 2020
; 100 GW by 2030 and 200 GW by 2050


To achieve
grid parity by 2020


To achieve parity with coal
-
based thermal power generation by 2030


4
-
5 GW of installed solar manufacturing capacity
by 2017


20
mn

solar lighting systems for rural areas by 2022

Note : Rates for SPV and ST based on average bidding tariff. The above rates expected to be achieved on commissioning of all
pow
er plants by May 2013

6

Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM)

Among the states, Gujarat


Leading the Way





Tariffs

PV project

(Rs. /kWh)

Thermal projects

(Rs. /kWh)

Projects commissioned
before 31.12.10

15 (for first 12 years)

10 (for first 12 years)

5 (from 13
th

to 25
th

year)

3 (from 13
th

to 25
th

year)

Projects commissioned
after 31.12.14

12 (for first 12 years)

9 (for first 12 years)

3 (from 13
th

to 25
th

year)

3 (from 13
th

to 25
th

year)

Gujarat


First state to launch an independent solar policy in 2009.


Policy operative till 2014.


PPAs of 969 MW signed. The projects allocated through the
MOU route with pre
-
qualification criteria


Projects of 690 MW commissioned
till 30
th

June, 2012.


Asia’s largest Solar Park


The Charaanka Solar park in Patan
district of Gujarat inaugurated in April, 2012


An energy surplus state. Does not need to allocate more
projects to fulfill its RPO obligations


Gujarat Energy Development Authority (GEDA) provides
assistance in identification of suitable locations, facilitation in
arranging Right of Way & recommending the project


High investor confidence




More than 1000MW of projects have pre
-
registered for
future allocations


Applications worth 1715 MW received for allocation of
150MW

Banaskantha

Patan

Surendra Nagar

Asia’s largest
solar park

…And o
ther states
following suit





Particulars

Karnataka

Rajasthan

Madhya Pradesh

Tamilnadu

Orissa

Policy instrument

Karnataka Solar Policy,

2011
-
16

Rajasthan Solar Energy
policy, 2011
-
2017

MP Solar Energy Policy

TN Solar Energy
Policy 2012

Target Capacity


200 MW
-

DISCOMS upto
2015
-
16 (40 MW p.a.)


50 MW
-

Thermal


100 MW
-

REC mechanism


50 MW SPV; 50 MW ST


DISCOMS

Phase I (upto 2013)
-
200MW

Phase II (2013
-

17)
-

400MW


10 MW : MNRE


200 MW SPV
announced



3000 MW by 2015,
including rooftop


1500 MW utility scale
by 205


50 MW SPV in
2012
-
13
announced

Capacity Cap

SPV : Min 3 MW, Max 10
MW

ST : Min 5 MW

SPV : Min 5 MW, Max 10 MW

ST : Min 5 MW, Max
-

50
MW

SPV : Min 5 MW


NA


25 MW

Sale of Energy under
state policy


Reverse bidding


Ceiling tariff :

SPV : INR 14.50 / kWh

ST : INR 11.35 / kWh


Reverse bidding


Ceiling Tariff :

SPV : INR 10.12 / kWh


Reverse bidding


Ceiling Tariff :

SPV : INR 15.35 / kWh


Reverse bidding


Ceiling Tariff :

SPV : INR 15.35 /
kWh



Reverse bidding


Lowest bidder
offered entire 25
MW

Operational :


State Policy


JNNSM, Phase I
Batch I


Migration scheme


RPSSGP through
IREDA


14 MW

-

-

-


-

25 projects : 125 MW

8 projects : 37.5 MW

10 projects : 10 MW



-

-

-

-


-

-

-


-

1 project : 5 MW

-

7 projects : 7 MW

Bids awarded under
state policy / other
schemes


80MW under State Policy


30 MW
-

30 months of PPA;


50 MW
-

18 months of PPA


817 MW
-

REC mechanism


100 MW
-

NTPC


Bundled

Last date for submission of
RfS for 200 MW postponed
indefinitely

200 MW under State
Policy

Expected allocation of
1000MW in 2013

25 MW


Source: MNRE, State Nodal Agencies, Research Reports

3,512
902
3,136
1,476
1,034
2,150
1,980
4,398
1,262
2,086
1,928
3,656
3,004
1,690
State

Electricity Consumption (Bn units)

Equivalent Solar Installation capacity (MW) RPPO 3% (FY 22E)

FY13E

FY 22E

Andhra Pradesh

89.0

175.6

Chhattisgarh

21.8

45.1

Gujarat

85.4

156.8

Haryana

38.4

73.8

Jharkhand

23.4

51.7

Karnataka

53.5

107.5

Madhya Pradesh

49.3

99.0

Maharashtra

125.7

219.9

Orissa

27.2

63.1

Punjab

60.5

104.3

Rajasthan

48.9

96.4

Tamil Nadu

87.2

182.8

Uttar Pradesh

79.3

150.2

West Bengal

41.0

84.5

Total

968.7

1,914.5

Solar RPOs
Pushing the Frontiers Further

38,290 MW


The solar power purchase obligation for the States start with 0.25% in phase 1 (FY2011
-
2013) and go up to 3% by FY 2022


Installed solar capacity by FY 2022 estimated at 38 GW

*Source: MNRE and Bridge to India: Solar Compass: Oct 2012

as on Oct 2012

Total Grid Connected Installed Capacity Map


India

Solar


Knowledge base and Technology



Grid Extension, Availability and Stability

Solar
Photovoltaics

(SPV)

Technology

PV production


whole value chain

Equipment

PV production


whole value chain

Grid

Connected Solar Farms


EPC, Inverters, Monitoring Systems

Engineering

Risk Assessment and Insurance

Solar Resource Assessment (GHI, DNI) :

Satellite Based Estimates & Ground Measurements

Financing

What are various SPV technologies ?

c
-
Si

Thin Films

Mono /

Single
-
Crystal

Multi /

Poly Crystal

Amorphous Silicon

CdTe

CIGS

Organic

a
-
Si

(
single

Junction
)

Tandem /

Micromorph
/

Double
Jn
/

Triple
Jn

18
-
23%

15
-
17.5%

~6
-
8%

~9
-
10%

~11%

~12%

~5% ?

Global Production: Technology Mix

© LANCO Group, All Rights
Reserved

Polysilicon

Ingot/

Wafer

Cells

Modules

System
Integration

Decentralised
Application

Sand

Upstream

Mid Stream

Down Stream

GOVT OF INDIA


DOMESTIC SOLAR MFG ASPIRATIONS


Indian Solar Market demand is growing to be 1GW/yr by next year; and is set to
increase further thereafter, due to Grid Parity achievement


To cater to the Indian market demand following manufacturing capacities are required:

Indian Solar

PV
Manufacturing

NSM Goal : 2 GW / yr
Domestic

Mfg by 2020

Existing / Under
Constr

Indian Capacities

Remarks

Polysilicon

12,000 T/yr

1,800

T/yr (
constr
)

Lanco

Ingots & Wafers

2,300 MW/yr

300 MW/yr (
constr
)

Lanco, Birla Surya

Cells

2,200 MW/yr

1,010 MW/yr

Indosolar, Jupiter, BHEL,
Websol
, Tata,
Moserbaer
,
EuroMultivision
, BEL, CEL,
SolarSemi

Modules

2,000 MW/yr

1,900

MW/yr

More than 40 companies

PV
Technology wise status (JNSM)

62.07%

37.93%

Thin Films
c-si
Module Technology Breakup
-

by % capacity

JNSM

Phase I (Batch
-
1): 150 MW

Phase I (Batch
-
2): 350 MW (Anticipated)

Cheaper Financing Options decide the technology options


Equipment
comes with funding

c
-
Si Module to be manufactured
domestically

c
-
Si cells and Module to be
manufactured domestically

55%

45%

Module Technology
Break
-
up by %
capacity
-

Phase 2

Thin-film
c-Si
Technology share in Gujarat & leading financiers

16

Multi,
46%

CdTe,
23%

Am
-
Si,
24%

CIS 1%

Tandems
6%

Technology share of PV projects
in Gujarat
totalling

935MW

Cheaper Financing Options decide the technology options


Equipment
comes with funding

Technology Vision for the PV Future



What technology is needed



What is needed to develop that technology



What challenges it would involve to get commercialized



Who needs the PV technology




For what?




Where/When does one need it

Who needs Solar ?

Who needs Solar ? For What?

A Systems Approach



Top
-
down Approach


Grid Centric




Bottoms
-
up Approach


Off Grid, Needs






Specific Solutions


Photovoltaic Systems


PV Panels: high efficiency at low cost !


Inverters: Long Life time ?, Higher efficiencies,
Tropicalized
,
more intelligent


Variability of Solar Resource


-

Storage solutions: Batteries,
Ultracapacitors
,….



Power electronics


Load Specific


Transport of power


Availability and Stability of Grid


Frugal Engineering


Tata
Nano

Lessons Learned : Lack of reliable radiation data

22

Solar Monitoring Stations


MNRE

has

initiated

a

major

project

on

Solar

Radiation

Resource

Assessment

(SRRA
)



Centre

for

Wind

Energy

Technology

(C

WET)

has

installed

a

network

of

51

Automatic

Solar

Radiation

Monitoring

Stations

in

different

states


Project

developers

have

to

rely

on

satellite

information

from

sources

like

NASA,

NREL,

etc



Uncertainty

surrounding

the

generation

potential

at

site
.

Different

solar

radiation

database

yield

varying

estimates
.



The

returns

of

a

solar

project

are

highly

sensitive

to

radiation

levels
.



Lack

of

adequate

ground
-
mounted

monitoring

stations

to

validate

satellite

based

estimates



Radiation

variability

could

significantly

affect

projected

cash

flows


Challenges Faced currently

Move towards building Solar Radiation Atlas

Lessons Learned : Scale of Projects

23


Solar

projects

are

small

compared

to

traditional

power

plants




Lenders

are

reluctant

to

finance

small

transactions



In

cases

where

finance

is

available,

transaction

costs

are

higher



Higher

MW

range

of

projects

had

to

be

promoted

for

using

better

evacuation

infrastructure



Government

realising

these

challenges

has

considerably

increased

the

size

of

solar

PV

projects

allotted

in

phase

I

batch

II

of

JNNSM



From

Batch

I

to

Batch

II

,

max

capacity

allotted

to

any

developer

has

increased

to

50

MW



States

following

the

cue,

are

also

encouraging

large

scale

development

which

would

further

bring

in

economies

of

scale
.

Particulars

Max Cap

JNNSM Batch I Phase I

Max 5 MW


JNNSM Batch II Phase I


Max 50 MW for one developer; each project of max 20 MW

Karnataka

10 MW

Rajasthan

10 MW

MP

No upper Limit

Gujarat

25 MW

Orissa Phase I & II

25 MW

Maximum Cap allotted to a developer for Solar PV

Challenges faced due to size of Projects

Steps taken to address the issue

SPV Challenge:





The Grid Parity ?


Or


Grid Substitute / Support


Socket Parity



25

Road to Grid Parity is Blocked by the High Cost of Financing in India


Prohibitive

cost

of

financing

in

India

in

terms

of

prevailing

interest

rates


Long
-
tenure

loans

not

available

(
15

years

and

more)

with

Indian

banks
.

Stretches

cash
-
flows

during

debt

service

period

*
Includes Hedging Cost


NCDs = Non
-
convertible Debentures


ECAs= External Commercial Borrowings


ECA=Export credit agency

l

7.7%
7%
3%
10.5%
5%
2%
5.80%
4.90%
6.70%
5.50%
9.00%
0.50%
3.30%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Prime Lending Rates (2011) (%)
Mode of Solar Financing in India

Source: World Bank

*

*

Roadmap to High Growth & Grid Parity

Interest Subsidy / VGF for Solar Farm; Rs 15 L/
year/MW (for 5
-
years)

Higher number of RECs for Older Plants

World Class R&D Centre
-

High
efficiency Solar cells; Reduction in
BOS & Tracking system costs

Capital Subsidy / Incentives for domestic PV Mfg
projects


to offset interest & power costs

Domestic Content & ADD support for 2
-
3 years

Every MW of Solar Power Plant
create
direct / indirect jobs:


Solar Mfg : 20

Solar Farm Project : 65

O&M : 15


During 2012
-
17 : Potential 1,00,000 jobs


Grid Parity


Reliable & affordable
power
-

Empowerment of rural
population

THANK YOU!