EUROPEAN ARENA &

lapclassManagement

Nov 6, 2013 (3 years and 7 months ago)

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Jari Kaivo
-
oja, Adjunct Professor, Finland Futures Research Centre,
University of Turku


Adviser, Crisis Management Initiative, President Ahtisaari
´
s Office





KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD &

EUROPEAN ARENA &

NEW
C
HALLENGES FOR FUTURES STUDIES

KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: SOCIAL


Global migration increases


Increasing longevity (more active 60 year old)


The old poor class larger/regional underclass


Growing distrust on institutions and leaders


Changing roles of sex and generations


World becomes urban


Continued bubbles and crashes


Global educational powerhouses: China & India



KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD:
TECHNICAL


Genetics, robotics, informatics and nanotechnology (WRIN waves)


The era of big creativity and innovation challenges (Rule of 10 000 hours, bohemian
creative class, Quartet Helix, frugal innovation, systemic innovations, etc.)


Technological capability increases exponentially: technological singularity near


The Cloud becomes ubiquitous: Web 3.0 and Web 4.0


New age of transhumanity: Human beings, robots and cyber humans


Reality and universe secondary, multiverse will be the key field of hypercompetition


KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD:
ENVIRONMENT


The rules of time, space & materia are changing: time machines, space
machines and materia machines create ubiquitous r/evolution


Environmental catastrophes occur


”Some like it hot”: the climate change problem and the end of cheap energy era


The culture of sustainability begins to emerge


KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD:
ECONOMIC


Globalisation: Networks, crowds, markets


The emerging BRICSA economies, especially China will dominate many
markets


Digital markets, digital money, virtual words, avatars


Productivity gains: More automation, highly educated workers


Mega
-
companies & micro
-
entrepreneurs emerge


Agile and smart business organisations

EUROPE 2030
VISION?

PROJECT EUROPE 2030

Challenges and Opportunities

A report to the European Council by the Reflection

Group on the Future of the EU
2030

Web: http://www.reflectiongroup.eu/wp
-
content/uploads/2010/05/reflection_en_web.pdf

EUROPE 2030?


Vision element 1: An
agent of change in the world,
a trend
-
setter
, and
not
a
passive player

or
witness.


Vision element 2: Highly
competitive and sustainable social
market
economy in
order to maintain
social cohesion and
fight
against climate
change.


Vision element 3: EU needs to
have
a
common energy
policy
(Renewables & nuclear energy solution).


Vision element 4: Europeans have met its
demographic
challenge
.

EUROPE 2030


Vision element 5:
The EU
has
a

strong Single
Market
against
temptations
of economic
nationalism and complete
it to
include
services, the
digital
society and other
dynamic sectors.


Vision element 6:
I
mproved
European tax coordination.


Vision element 7:
Europe will have very
modern
labour

market
and
very modern
corporate governance
practices because of the
progress of
robotisation

and
automatisation
.

EUROPE 2030


Vision element 8:
The
stronger European
Council and the
stronger
Eurogroup

with more efficient leadership role
, in
coordination with the Commission and the European
Parliament.

K
EY EUROPEAN QUESTIONS ON THE
EUROPEAN FORESIGHT
A
GENDA


Manage financial crisis and re
-
direct Europe to new economic growth


Solve unemployment problems


especially youth unemployment
problem


Keep Europe competive, innovative and open minded (Technology,
Talents, Tolerance)


Keep Europe secure and safe: internal security, external security,
social security, energy security etc.)


Make political leadership transparent and efficient

NEW CHALLENGES FOR FUTURES
STUDIES


Diagnosis
-
Prognosis
-
Prescription Methodology (DPP Methodology)


Adaptive and Agile
F
oresight processes


Strategic and participatory foresight more widely used


Foresight supports strong democracy


Metaforesight activities


Foresight and social media ... later European Cloud foresight
capacity

ATTENTION !


CONGRATULATIONS FOR

EMINENT SCHOLAR, PROFESSOR ERIK TERK
AND ESTONIAN ACADEMIC COMMUNITY &
FUTURES RESEARCH FELLOWS
!

THANK YOU!

SOME REFERENCES


Gratton, L. (2011
)
.

The Shift. The Future of Work Is Already Here. London: Collins.


Green, E.N. (2010
)
.

Anywhere. How Global Connectivity Is Revolutionizing the
Way
We Do Business? New York: McGraw
-
Hill.


Greenfield, A. (2006).
Everyware
: The Dawning Age of Ubiquitous Computing. Berkeley, CA, New Riders
.


Inkinen
, S. & Kaivo
-
oja, J. (2009). Understanding Innovation Dynamics. Aspects of Creative Processes, Foresight
Strategies, Innovation Media and Innovation Ecosystems. Finland Futures Research Centre. Turku School of Economics.
eBook 9/2009. Turku.


Kaivo
-
oja
, J. (2006). Towards Integration of Innovation Systems and Foresight Research in Firms and Corporations. The
Classical Takeuchi
-
Nonaka

Model Reconsidered and Reformulated. FFRC
-
publications 2/2006. Turku, Turku School of
Economics.


Kaivo
-
oja, J. (2011). Futures of Innovation Systems and Systemic Innovation Systems: Towards Better Innovation Quality
with New Innovation Management Tools. e
-
Book No 3, Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, University of Turku.


Kaivo
-
oja, J. (2012). Weak Signals Analysis, Knowledge Management Theory and Systemic Socio
-
cultural Transitions.
Futures. The Journal of Policy, Planning and Futures Studies. Vol. 44, Issue 3, pp. 206

217
.


López
, T.S.,
Ranasinghe
, D.C. Harrison, M. & McFarlane, D. (2012). Adding sense to the Internet of Things: An architecture
framework for Smart Object systems. Personal and Ubiquitous Computing. Vol. 16, No 3, 389
-
395
.


Misuraca
,
G.,
Broster
, D.,
Centeno
,
C.,
Punie
,
Y.,
Lampathaki
, F.,
Charalabidis
,
Y.,
Askounis
, D.,
Osimo
,, D.
Katarzyna
, S.
(2010
).
Envisioning
Digital Europe 2030: Scenarios
for ICT in
Future Governance
and
Policy
Modelling
. Seville: JRC.


Teece
, D.J. (2006). Reflections on ‘Profiting from innovation`. Research Policy.
Vol

35, No. 8, pp. 1131
-
1146
.


Ulwick
, A. (2005). What Customers Want: Using Outcome
-
Driven Innovation to Create Breakthrough Products and
Services. New York,
McGrawHill
.