EUROPEAN ARENA &

Jari Kaivo
-
oja, Adjunct Professor, Finland Futures Research Centre,
University of Turku


Adviser, Crisis Management Initiative, President Ahtisaari
´
s Office





KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD &

EUROPEAN ARENA &

NEW
C
HALLENGES FOR FUTURES STUDIES

KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD: SOCIAL

•
Global migration increases

•
Increasing longevity (more active 60 year old)

•
The old poor class larger/regional underclass

•
Growing distrust on institutions and leaders

•
Changing roles of sex and generations

•
World becomes urban

•
Continued bubbles and crashes

•
Global educational powerhouses: China & India



KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD:
TECHNICAL

•
Genetics, robotics, informatics and nanotechnology (WRIN waves)

•
The era of big creativity and innovation challenges (Rule of 10 000 hours, bohemian
creative class, Quartet Helix, frugal innovation, systemic innovations, etc.)

•
Technological capability increases exponentially: technological singularity near

•
The Cloud becomes ubiquitous: Web 3.0 and Web 4.0

•
New age of transhumanity: Human beings, robots and cyber humans

•
Reality and universe secondary, multiverse will be the key field of hypercompetition


KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD:
ENVIRONMENT

•
The rules of time, space & materia are changing: time machines, space
machines and materia machines create ubiquitous r/evolution

•
Environmental catastrophes occur

•
”Some like it hot”: the climate change problem and the end of cheap energy era

•
The culture of sustainability begins to emerge


KEY TRENDS IN THE WORLD:
ECONOMIC

•
Globalisation: Networks, crowds, markets

•
The emerging BRICSA economies, especially China will dominate many
markets

•
Digital markets, digital money, virtual words, avatars

•
Productivity gains: More automation, highly educated workers

•
Mega
-
companies & micro
-
entrepreneurs emerge

•
Agile and smart business organisations

EUROPE 2030
VISION?

PROJECT EUROPE 2030

Challenges and Opportunities

A report to the European Council by the Reflection

Group on the Future of the EU
2030

Web: http://www.reflectiongroup.eu/wp
-
content/uploads/2010/05/reflection_en_web.pdf

EUROPE 2030?

•
Vision element 1: An
agent of change in the world,
a trend
-
setter
, and
not
a
passive player

or
witness.

•
Vision element 2: Highly
competitive and sustainable social
market
economy in
order to maintain
social cohesion and
fight
against climate
change.

•
Vision element 3: EU needs to
have
a
common energy
policy
(Renewables & nuclear energy solution).

•
Vision element 4: Europeans have met its
demographic
challenge
.

EUROPE 2030

•
Vision element 5:
The EU
has
a

strong Single
Market
against
temptations
of economic
nationalism and complete
it to
include
services, the
digital
society and other
dynamic sectors.

•
Vision element 6:
I
mproved
European tax coordination.

•
Vision element 7:
Europe will have very
modern
labour

market
and
very modern
corporate governance
practices because of the
progress of
robotisation

and
automatisation
.

EUROPE 2030

•
Vision element 8:
The
stronger European
Council and the
stronger
Eurogroup

with more efficient leadership role
, in
coordination with the Commission and the European
Parliament.

K
EY EUROPEAN QUESTIONS ON THE
EUROPEAN FORESIGHT
A
GENDA

•
Manage financial crisis and re
-
direct Europe to new economic growth

•
Solve unemployment problems
–

especially youth unemployment
problem

•
Keep Europe competive, innovative and open minded (Technology,
Talents, Tolerance)

•
Keep Europe secure and safe: internal security, external security,
social security, energy security etc.)

•
Make political leadership transparent and efficient

NEW CHALLENGES FOR FUTURES
STUDIES

•
Diagnosis
-
Prognosis
-
Prescription Methodology (DPP Methodology)

•
Adaptive and Agile
F
oresight processes

•
Strategic and participatory foresight more widely used

•
Foresight supports strong democracy

•
Metaforesight activities

•
Foresight and social media ... later European Cloud foresight
capacity

ATTENTION !


CONGRATULATIONS FOR

EMINENT SCHOLAR, PROFESSOR ERIK TERK
AND ESTONIAN ACADEMIC COMMUNITY &
FUTURES RESEARCH FELLOWS
!

THANK YOU!

SOME REFERENCES

•
Gratton, L. (2011
)
.

The Shift. The Future of Work Is Already Here. London: Collins.

•
Green, E.N. (2010
)
.

Anywhere. How Global Connectivity Is Revolutionizing the
Way
We Do Business? New York: McGraw
-
Hill.

•
Greenfield, A. (2006).
Everyware
: The Dawning Age of Ubiquitous Computing. Berkeley, CA, New Riders
.

•
Inkinen
, S. & Kaivo
-
oja, J. (2009). Understanding Innovation Dynamics. Aspects of Creative Processes, Foresight
Strategies, Innovation Media and Innovation Ecosystems. Finland Futures Research Centre. Turku School of Economics.
eBook 9/2009. Turku.

•
Kaivo
-
oja
, J. (2006). Towards Integration of Innovation Systems and Foresight Research in Firms and Corporations. The
Classical Takeuchi
-
Nonaka

Model Reconsidered and Reformulated. FFRC
-
publications 2/2006. Turku, Turku School of
Economics.

•
Kaivo
-
oja, J. (2011). Futures of Innovation Systems and Systemic Innovation Systems: Towards Better Innovation Quality
with New Innovation Management Tools. e
-
Book No 3, Finland Futures Research Centre, Turku, University of Turku.

•
Kaivo
-
oja, J. (2012). Weak Signals Analysis, Knowledge Management Theory and Systemic Socio
-
cultural Transitions.
Futures. The Journal of Policy, Planning and Futures Studies. Vol. 44, Issue 3, pp. 206
–
217
.

•
López
, T.S.,
Ranasinghe
, D.C. Harrison, M. & McFarlane, D. (2012). Adding sense to the Internet of Things: An architecture
framework for Smart Object systems. Personal and Ubiquitous Computing. Vol. 16, No 3, 389
-
395
.

•
Misuraca
,
G.,
Broster
, D.,
Centeno
,
C.,
Punie
,
Y.,
Lampathaki
, F.,
Charalabidis
,
Y.,
Askounis
, D.,
Osimo
,, D.
Katarzyna
, S.
(2010
).
Envisioning
Digital Europe 2030: Scenarios
for ICT in
Future Governance
and
Policy
Modelling
. Seville: JRC.

•
Teece
, D.J. (2006). Reflections on ‘Profiting from innovation`. Research Policy.
Vol

35, No. 8, pp. 1131
-
1146
.

•
Ulwick
, A. (2005). What Customers Want: Using Outcome
-
Driven Innovation to Create Breakthrough Products and
Services. New York,
McGrawHill
.


•