Wireless Foresight Conference June 5 2002

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Nov 21, 2013 (3 years and 8 months ago)

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Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Wireless Foresight Conference


June 5 2002



Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

An afternoon about the Wireless Future


Project Wireless Foresight

-
Four scenarios of the Wireless World in 2015

-
Challenges facing Industry

-
Implications for research


Alternative view of the future


Prof. Eli Noam, Columbia University


Open Access and Industry Cyclicality



Panel discussion


Research and Research
Funding

for a
Positive

Wireless Future



Jens Zander (KTH, chair)

Eli Noam (Columbia University)

Bo Dahlbom (SITI)


Bernt Ericson (Ericsson Foresight)

Bertil Thorngren (Stockholm School of Economics)

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Wireless@KTH


A Center for Research and Education


Focus on Wireless Systems: Mobile Computing & Communication


Joint research between academia and industry

-
Common reserach projects and programs


Industrial partnership

-
Active participation: Internships and Research Fellows


Partnership program on four levels

-
Founding partners

-
International partners

-
Associate partners

-
Network partners

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

A Vision Driven Research Approach

Wireless Foresight



Think Tank”

Center

Vision



2015

and

beyond

Center

Projects

on

Key Problems

Graduates

Innovations

Papers

Techno
-

Socio
-

Economic
-

Scenarios

Partners

Other scenarios

(WSI, WWRF, TF)

External
researchers

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Industrial Partners


Initial donation


Ericsson, Telia, Microsoft, Nokia


Founding partners


Ericsson, Telia


Other Industrial Partners (as of May 2002)


3GIS


Genista


Allgon


Kevab


Axis


MSI


BIC Mid Sweden

Northstream


Blue Factory

Operax


Carnegie


Semcon


e
-
tenna


Tele2


Europolitan

Widermind


Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Academic Founders


Carl Gustaf Jansson

Knowledge and Communication Engineering


Gunnar Karlsson

Teletrafic Systems


Bastiaan Kleijn

Speech Signal Processing


Gerald
”Chip”
Maguire

Computer Communication Systems



Björn Ottersten

Signal Processing


Jens Zander

Radio Communication Systems


Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Four scenarios of the

Wireless World in 2015

Bo Karlson

Wireless@KTH


bo.karlson@wireless.kth.se

www.wireless.kth.se/foresight

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Project Wireless Foresight


September 1 2001


June 5 2002


Objectives

-
Create
scenarios

of the wireless future (2015)

-
Identify key research areas for the
C
enter and in general

-
Create
a
shared vision

of the wireless future within the Center

-
Build network, create
visibility


Focus on the development of the Wireless Industry

-
Vendors (infrastructure and terminals)

-
Operators

-
Service providers and developers


Global scope





Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Wireless Foresight, the report


Four scenarios


Trends and Fundamental drivers


Technical implications from the scenarios


Key research areas


Challenges for industry

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Four Scenarios of

the Wireless World 2015


Wireless Explosion


Creative Destruction


Slow Motion


Rediscovering Harmony


Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments


It’s not about describing how the world
will

look,

but how it
might

look!

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Wireless Explosion



Creative Destruction

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Wireless Explosion



Creative Destruction


Usage and industry growing rapidly

-
Fast technological development

-
An explosion of wireless applications and services

-
All markets growing fast


Old telco industry loses to datacom attackers

-
Datacom industry (Internet & IP) winning

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Main characteristics


A fiercly competitive world

-
Intense competition, many players

-
Infrastucture based on IP and datacom paradigm

-
Market leaders unable to expand ”monopoly” power


Active users want open IP access and take control

-
Advanced users after 20 years with the Net: Choice & Freedom

-
”Anarchistic” underground

culture: IPR
-
enforcement
difficult


-
Mobile life
-
style

-
New spectrum released but mostly for unlicensed use

-
Ad
-
hoc deployed networks, do
-
it
-
yourself wireless access


Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Disruptive market change


Modularization

-
Standardized interfaces: IP, open APIs, software platforms etc.

-
Closed telco
-
style systems lose

-
Technologies and functions dis
-
integrating

-
Each module a niche market with intense competition


Creative Destruction

-
Rapid development transforming industry

-
Old market leaders lose and attackers win

-
Operators and telco equipment vendors vulnerable

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Slow Motion

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Slow Motion


Slow pace of development

-
Services, Industry, and Wireless Technology


Problems affecting the Wireless industry

-
Financial crisis among operators: a domino effect

-
Global economic recession

-
3G fiasco

-
Health problems from radiation

-
Environmental awareness

-
High power consumption and low battery capacity

-
Managing a heterogeneous and complex wireless world



Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Main characteristics


The mobile lifestyle loses ground

-
Urbanization slows down in the industrial world

-
More people work from home or local offices

-
Traveling increases, but very slowly


No service explosion

-
Simple services popular (payments, MMS, news, music etc.)

-
Advanced services too expensive

-
Mobile professionals and Industrial users

the only driving segments


Big NICs catching up




Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Wireless a mature industry


Slow pace of growth


Low profit margins


Increased concentration in most segments


Traditional Telcos still dominating


Operators

-
Consolidation leading to fewer actors


Equipment vendors

-
Focus on NICs and on traditional operators


Terminal vendors

-
Large segment of cheap and reliable terminals


Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Rediscovering harmony

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Rediscovering harmony


The wireless industry refocusing

-
Reasonably fast pace of development

-
Simple services for the mass
-
market

-
Complex solutions for niche segments

-
Local operators co
-
exist with global communication providers


A new lifestyle

-
Postmaterialism

-
Quality of life (family and friends)

-
The environment is sacred


Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Main characteristics


Individualism, environmentalism, and social awareness


Both local
and

global lifestyle

-
From crammed cities to local communities

-
People live locally but think globally

-
Less daily travel but increased global travel





We have slowed down

-
Information overflow eventually made us ”tune out”

-
Social life and environmental concern most important


Peoples’ needs are in charge

-
Being old means being wealthy, active and demanding

-
Youths demand 24/7 services, personalized technology

and ethically and environmentally aware companies



Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

An industry trying to adapt


The wireless industry tries to refocus

-
No wireless explosion, but still quite a large market

-
Brand important, but in a new way

-
”Tribes” and subcultures with different needs

-
Global
and

local operators/service providers

-
Industry struggles to understand the ”new” marketplace


Only in the industrialized world

-
Change of values linked to socio/economic development

-
NICs still have postindustrial values

-
Large but traditional markets

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Big Moguls and Snoopy Governments


Wireless industry stagnant

-
Less competition

-
No opportunities for new players

-
The big players dominate


Governments exert tight control

-
Issues of security and copyright driving

-
Government can more easily control few players


Large companies become even larger

-
Mergers of companies into ”Moguls”

-
Moguls grow on all markets



Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Main characteristics


Governments

-
All communication tightly surveilled

-
Very little new spectrum released

-
No new players allowed on emerging markets and niches


Moguls

-
Brand rules

-
Focus on user convenience, security, and safety

-
Operators/service providers are global companies

-
No wireless explosion but users are satisfied


Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

A Perfect World


Privacy

-
Companies not to give out information

-
Government can acquire information


Security

-
All transactions secure and surveilled

-
Piracy not possible


Freedom

-
Not much, but it is accepted

-
NICs might host data havens/providers

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Technology

Socio
-
Economic
-
Political

Business and
Industry

Users, Values and
Attitudes

Processing power will

increase exponentially
(Moore’s law)

Globalization will increase

Industries mature over time

Values change at the pace
of generations

Fiber and memory capacity

will increase exponentially

Democratization

will incresae

Companies strive towards
monopoly

Individualism will increase

Capacity in air will increase
but slower than in fiber

Aging population

(Industrial world)

Attractive markets attract
new entrants

Importance of family and
friends will increase

Battery capacity will
increase very slowly

Shift towards knowledge
industry (OECD & NIC)

Scale & learning economics
(improving p/p)

Value of free time and
experiences will increase

Miniaturization of
components will increase

Market economy prevails
(however counter
movements will continue)

Complexity diseconomics

Need for mobility and
communication will
increase

Digitalization will increase

Fight against terrorism and
crime, in particular ”cyber
crime”, will continue

Value chains

will increase in complexity

(value networks)

Inceased technology
adoption in everyday life

Standardization will
increase

Social differences

will increase

Wireless infrastructure
cost will fall slower than for
electronics (Jens’ law)

Different user groups have
different values and needs

Internet development
dominating

Increasing amount of
information and choices

Value of network increases
with number of nodes
(Metcalf’s law)

Health concerns

will increase

Large and complex
systems become
increasingly difficult to
control centrally

Air bandwidth is affected
by political decisions

Value of information and
knowledge will increase

Environmentalism

will increase

Fundamental Drivers of Development

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

14 trends shaping the scenarios


1.
Development will be more user driven


2.
User mobility will increase


3.
The service and application market will grow


4.

User security, integrity, and privacy

will become more important


5.
Real or perceived health problems due to radiation will

6.

become more important


6.
Environmental issues will become more important


7.
Spectrum will become an increasingly scarce resource





Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

14 trends shaping the scenarios cont.


1.
8.

The wireless Industry will grow


9.
The big NICs will continue their positive development


10.
Market concentration in the wireless industry will change


11.
The fight for market dominance in the wireless industry will intensify


12.

Terminal usage time and complexity management will


become increasingly important problems


13.
3G will be implemented


14.

Protection of IPR on content will become incresingly difficult


Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Challenges Facing Industry

Jonas Lind

Stockholm School of Economics

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5


Disruptive market change


winners and loser


Spectrum release


faster and smarter


3G debt threat


smarter spectrum policy


Cheaper infrastructure


fewer masts, more electronics



Better batteries


users will not accept daily recharging


Better usability


make it seamless, useful and intuitive


Complexity management


IP, modularized, open APIs

A few Challenges for Industry

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5


Industry moving from vertical integration to

markets in horizontal layers


Disruptive innovation


an attack ”from below”


Incumbents often arrogant and miss the warnings:
”inferior technology”



Is the wireless telco industry in for a

disruptive attack from the datacom industry?


How will the wireless telco industry respond to
disruptive attackers?


Disruptive market change



winners and loser

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Industry moving from vertical integration
to markets in horizontal layers

Customer relations

Network managment

Services

Access network

Back
-
bone network

Old incumbents:

Vertically integrated

New marketplace:

Excellence in one segment

Customer relations

Network managment

Services

Access network

Back
-
bone network

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Disruptive innovation


an attack “from below”

Time

Performance

logaritmic scale

New
technology

enters low
-
end

market

Unix and Vax computers

New technology replaces
old technology

Market for old

technology

PC Wintel computers


Market for attacking

technology

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Logics of disruptive innovations


Attackers with radically cheaper technology (ten times cheaper)


Enter on low
-
end market


unreliable, but fullfil unmet need


Quickly build volume (*10), eat away low
-
end market from
incumbents


Old technology responds by retreating into high
-
end segment


High sales volumes give attackers fast performance growth


Attackers fix flaws in design along the way




When new technology is ”good enough” for most customers,

the old technology fails!

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Incumbent Attacker

Main
-
frame computers

Minicomputers

5.25 inch disk
-
drives

3.25 inch disk
-
drives

Mini computers

Wintel PCs

Cable
-
actuated excavators

Hydraulic excavators

High
-
street furniture retail

”IKEA” business model

Integrated steel
-
mills

Minimills (using scrap steel)

Pre
-
industrial craft products

Industrial mass production

Xerox copiers

Canon/Ricoh tabletop copiers

Incumbents often arrogant and miss

the warnings: ”inferior technology”

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Weak entry points for attackers



Unlicenced spectrum



Self
-
deployed networks


(”the $39 wireless access point”)



”Good
-
enough” quality


at a tenth of the price



IP, modularization and open APIs


give much lower complexity



No hierarchical control




Agile, hyperfoced firms


(layered, excellence in one segment)



WLANs and WISPs



Telco universe



High
-
cost business model


(extreme reliability & quality)



Centralized hierarchical control


(high complexity system management)



Slowness inherent for vertically


integrated firms



Telco market power from



Control of spectrum



Geographical physical infrastructure



Customer lock
-
in

Is the Wireless telco industry in for a
disruptive attack from the datacom industry ?

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

What will happen?


How will the Wireless Telco industry respond
to disruptive attackers?


Counter and grab the opportunities or ignore
and lose?


Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5


Mobile (90% of population) has below 10% of all usable
spectrum (0.4
-
5 GHz)


Rest is controlled by legacy users, the millitary (30%) and TV
broadcasters


Spectrum shortage is hampering competition and forcing
operators to build unnecessary expensive infrastructure


Spectrum policy handled by slow moving diplomatic WRC
meetings (no significant spectrum release possible until 2013)




Faster spectrum release must be put on the political agenda


Spectrum release


faster and smarter

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

How to solve the spectrum issue


Increase competiton by releasing lots of new spectrum

-
To operators

-
For unlicensed use


Replace auctions with revenue sharing during life
-
time


Sell spectrum and use proceeds to compensate the
military and other legacy users

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

3G debt threat


smarter spectrum policy


Wireless spectrum is valuable due to shortage


Massive spectrum release will reduce value of 3G licenses


3G operators paid for licenses under “the old regime”






Compensate 3G license ”winners” when massive spectrum
release reduces value of their spectrum

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

The 3G debt problem (cont.)


3G debts threaten to trigger a financial crash

-
The auction party in 2000 (

120 billion)

-
Future 3G build
-
out commitments (

140 billion)

-
Future cost for hand
-
set subsidies and marketing

-
In a deep recession, financial market will cancel telco credits



EU, industry, and governments must deal with the problem





Alleviate demands from regulators and allow unlimited

infrastructure sharing (consumer will not benefit from
bankrupt operators and half
-
built networks)

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Cheaper infrastructure



fewer masts, more electronics


Wireless of today based on a high
-
cost business model

-
Dedicated infrastucture with masts, macro
-
cells, cabling etc.

-
Spectrum shortage, keeping tariffs high

-
Homogeneous network, same in rural as in city centers


Data traffic explosion can not be carried on traditional macro
-
cell networks (GPRS and 3G) at affordable costs


Future infrastructure must build on a new topology

-
Possible cost cuts of 70% (if no dedicated towers, etc.)

-
Different networks in rural areas, along roads, and in cities?

-
Different networks for broadcast and personal communication?

-
Ride on to the existing fixed Net in urban areas?

-
Self
-
deployed, optical wireless, ad
-
hoc, peer
-
to
-
peer?

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5


Disruptive market change


winners and loser


Spectrum release


faster and smarter


3G debt threat


smarter spectrum policy


Cheaper infrastructure


fewer masts, more electronics



Better batteries


users will not accept daily recharging


Better usability


make it seamless, useful and intuitive


Complexity management


IP, modularised, open APIs



Summary


industry challenges

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Implications for Research

Aurelian Bria

Royal Institute of Technology (KTH)

aurelian@radio.kth.se

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5




Scenarios

Technical

Implications

Key

Research
Areas

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Seven Key Research Areas

Low cost infrstructue and

Business models


New and advanced services


System Integration


Resource Management


Air interfaces and protocols


Health and

Environmental issues


Usability


Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Technical Implications (”Best case”)


System Characteristics

-
Heterogeneous infrastructure

-
Small cost per transmitted bit, etc.


Terminals

-
Wide range of shapes and capabilities

-
Long usage time before recharging, etc.


Services

-
Wireless services will become a commodity

-

Services will be independent of the infrastructure, etc.

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Key Research Areas


Air
-
interfaces and Protocols


Resource management

-
Sharing and coexistence

-
Decentralized management

-
Dynamic spectrum allocation, etc.


System Integration

-
Complexity management

-
Multimode and adaptive terminals, etc.




Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Key Research Areas (cont.)


New and advanced services

-
Context awareness

-
”Smart” spaces

-
Ubiquitous services and sensors, etc.


Usability

-
Inteligent user interface

-
Personal networks, etc.



Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Key Research Areas (cont.)


Cross
-
disciplinary research

-
Low cost infrastructure and business models

”Affordable wireless services”


-
Health and Environmental Impact


Perceived “safe” technology”

Wireless Foresight Conference, June 5

Conclusions


The demand for wireless communication services will
increase


New technology, services, and business models
need to be developed


There are many engineering challenges out there


There is currently a big need for research on wireless

-
Cross
-
disciplinary research is important

-
Focus on the end user