hushedsnailInternet and Web Development

Nov 12, 2013 (3 years and 7 months ago)




Observation I: Inherency

First, Funding for water treatment and recovery infrastructure is in decline as the Northern
Mexico region faces severe water shortages that threaten ecosystems, regional security,
and economic growth.

Espinosa in 2010

Salvador (Assistant Professor of
Public Finances and Policy Analysis at the School of Public Affairs, San Diego
State University) “Financing Border Environmental Infrastructure: Where are we? Where to go from here?”
This document has been prepared for the Border X Seminar that will take p
lace in Rio Rico, AZ (March 8
10). Financing%20Border%20Environmental%20Infrastructure.pdf

The Southwestern Consortium for Environmental Research (SCERP) has invited me to participate in the Border
X seminar with a
paper that discusses the challenges that the border region faces in terms of the financing of
environmental infrastructure. This issue is of great relevance
In spite of growing concerns about
environmental preservation, the global economic slowdown has li
mited the financial capacity of
governments and has introduced tighter constraints on their budgets.
The problem may not be that
worrisome if it were not for the fact that the public sector is usually an important contributor of funds for
environmental inf
While the need for environmental preservation in the border region is evident,
many of the required projects have high upfront costs that governments are finding difficult to cover. The
challenge for policymakers interested in the U.S.
border is not a simple one: Narrowing a growing
deficit in environmental infrastructure at a time when the funding capabilities of the public sector have been

The scarcity of government funds is not the only problem.
Rapid population growth,
ustrialization, the creation of physical barriers, and other natural phenomena are depleting essential
resources, putting economic development and even the security of the two nations at peril. A good example
of this situation is what occurs with water, wh
ich remains one of the most pressing environmental problems
faced by the border region. As a recent analysis illustrates, water scarcity constitutes a threat to the quality
of life of border communities, endangers water
sensitive ecosystems, puts economic
growth at risk and
strains diplomatic relations

(Woodrow Wilson Center and COLEF. 2009). Yet, the availability of government
funds to deal with this sensitive policy issue has been constantly diminishing
According to a report by the
Border Environmental C
ooperation Commission (BECC), as of fiscal year 2008, the required investment for
water and wastewater infrastructure was US$1 billion.
Budget appropriations from the U.S. Congress for the
Mexico program for that year were only US$10 million.. This am
ount was enough to cover only 5% of
the documented needs

(Border Environment Cooperation Commission. 2007). This gives a clear idea of the
challenges that Mexico and the United States face in terms of border infrastructure finance
Bridging the gap

infrastructure needs and available funds can only be done if new and innovative financing
mechanisms are designed. But most importantly, it can only be done if policymakers, government officials
and border residents are aware of the consequences that the
lack of action would entail

How to obtain the
funds to cover the cost of essential and much
needed environmental infrastructure? This is the question that
this paper intends to address

Thus the plan: The United States federal government should increas
e funding for the
Border Environment Infrastructure Fund for qualified projects in Mexico.

Advantage I: Clean Drinking Water

Lack of infrastructure for water treatment and sewage systems is leaving millions
vulnerable to disease from contaminated water.

Ecosystems in the United States are being
destroyed from waste deposited in rivers flowing into the United States from Mexican

George B.

and Margriet F
Caswel ’11

Transboundary water management Game
theoretic lessons
for projects

on the US
Mexico border;

The border’s most serious public health problem is lack of access to safe drinking water and sewage
treatment. Many people on both sides of the border lack access to potable water and connections to

Johnstone notes that “
Juarez, a city of over 1.5 million does not have any treatment facilities

(p. 44
Texas and New Mexico, over 400 000 people live


low income,
unincorporated subdivisions typically

electricity, paved roads, potable water, or sewage treatment

Untreated sewage is a major transboundary externality, as
polluted water flows northward from Mexican to
American cities. The city of Nuevo Laredo deposits 24 million gallons per day
of raw

sewage into the
Rio Grande In Tijuana, over 10 million gallons day of untreated sewage, combined

with industrial waste, flow
into the Tijuana River

and San Diego (Johnstone,; IBWC,; Minute 283). Flows of sewage into the ocean have led
to frequent beach cl
osures in San Diego (Ganster,). The New River

flowing north from the Mexi

Cali Valley,
through the Imperial Valley, and into the Salton Sea has the dubious distinction of being one of the most
polluted rivers in the United States (Kishel,; Johnstone,;
Ganster,). The Nogales Wash, a tributary of the Santa
Cruz River, flows through Nogales, Sonora and Arizona. During summer rains, raw sewage flows into the Wash
and through neighborhoods on both sides of the border (Ingram and White,; Varady et al.,). Giar
dia and
cryptosporidium have been detected in the Wash and the aquifer serving as the primary water source for both
cities (Varady and Mack,).

Confronting poverty and providing Access to water is a basic human right that
disproportionately effects the mos
t marginalized populations of the region.

Barcena in 2012

Alicia Executive Secretar RIO +20 Conference LC/L.3346/Rev.1

March 2012

DEVELOPMENT 20 YEARs ON FROM THE EARTH SUMMIT” RIO +20 Conference for Sustainable Development

Nonetheless, no notable change has occurred in the development model to support simultaneous


in the social, economic and environmental dimensions. Thus, despite some achievements, the

region has not managed to reduce inequalities in any significant way, to eradicate poverty or to decouple

environmental pressures from economic growth.
There are st
ill many people living in poverty without

access to basic utilities

including those defined as human rights, such as access to environmental

health, water and sanitation, and housing

with serious implications for the security of the region’s


Lack of access to these services
, compounded by wide disparities in access to education, and

hence to the labour market, mean that the characteristic inequality of Latin America and the Caribbean

renders disadvantaged groups more vulnerable to the ef
fects of local and global environmental

deterioration. Gender gaps and discrimination based on race, ethnicity, age and geographical location

accentuate the disadvantages faced by large segments of the region’s populatio
. This situation increases

the vuln
erability of these groups to climate
related and other disasters. During the period 1970

floods and storms accounted for almost 70% of disasters recorded in the region leaving a toll of more than

467,000 deaths, an average of 4.5 million persons affe
cted each year and estimated losses in the order of

US$ 160 billion.
Disadvantaged groups are also vulnerable to diseases caused by exposure to toxic

products, garbage, polluted water and air, among other things; and the deterioration or scarcity of natur

resources and water on which their survival depends

Clean Water is a Prerequisite to Other Rights

Key to address any form of oppression

United Nations General Assembly, 10 (The United Nations General Assembly,
an_right_to_water.shtml, The Human Right to Water and
Sanitation, MN)

On 28 July 2010, through Resolution 64/292,
the United Nations General Assembly explicitly recognized the
human right to water and sanitation and acknowledged that clean drinking water
and sanitation are essential
to the realization of all human rights.

The Resolution calls upon States and international organizations to
provide financial resources, help capacity
building and technology transfer to help countries, in particular

countries, to provide safe, clean, accessible and affordable drinking water and sanitation for all
.¶ In
November 2002, the Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights adopted General Comment No. 15 on
the right to water.
Article I.1 states that "The

human right to water is indispensable for leading a life in human
dignity. It is a prerequisite for the realization of other human rights". Comment No. 15 also defined the right to
water as the right of everyone to sufficient, safe, acceptable and physica
lly accessible and affordable water for
personal and domestic uses.

This is the epitome of structural violence

Catholic relief services, 2009
<by Jason Gehrig with Mark M. Rogers Water and Conflict

the international humanitarian agency of the Catholic co
mmunity in the United States

he most widespread manifestation of water
related vio
lence is the deprivation of access to improved water
and basic sanitation, a situation of “structural violence” affecting hundreds of millions of poor people around
the world. Imagine the death of the entire under
five population of New York City and Londo
n together to
get a rough sense of the impact of the approximately 1.8 million child deaths occurring each year
as a result
of diarrhea
caused by unclean water and poor sanitation

Death from diarrhea is the second biggest killer
of children (15% of all in
fant deaths), after acute respiratory infections (Foro Nacional de Agua, 2008).
While these young deaths are perhaps the most disturbing manifestation of water
related “structural
violence,” other manifestations include:


at any given time close t
o half of all people in
developing countries suffer from a health problem caused by water and sanitation deficits.

educational opportunities

443 million school days each year are lost to water
related illness (UNDP,

scale productivity
losses, not to mention lost opportunities for personal development

In El Salvador, for example, impoverished rural families without access to water in the home spend an
average of 8.5% of their productive time just getting water (Foro Nacional de Agua, 200
With almost
two in every three people without access to clean water surviving on less than $2 a day, this is a crisis and a
brutal violence being faced above all by the world’s poor. Any effort to promote water
related conflict
transformation must reco
gnize this reality

(UNDP, 2006b).

The Systemic impact of Structural violence outweighs War both in magnitude and

Gilligan in 2000

, Department of
Psychiatry at Harvard

Medical School,

edition, Violence: Reflections
on Our Deadliest Epidemic, p. 195


14 to
18 million deaths a year caused by structural violence compare with


per year from armed
conflict. Comparing this frequency of deaths from structural
violence to the frequency of those caused by major military
and political violence, such as World War II

(an estimated 49 million military and civilian deaths, including those caused by
or about eight million per year, 1935
1945), the Indonesian
massacre of 1965
1966 (perhaps 575,000 deaths),
the Vietnam war (possibly two million, 1954
and even a hypothetical nuclear exchange between the U.S. and the

(232 million),
it was clear that even war cannot begin to compare with structural v
iolence, which continues year
after year.

In other word,
every fifteen years
, on the average,
as many people die because of

poverty as would be
killed in a nuclear war

that caused 232 million deaths;
and every


two to
three times as ma
ny people die from

throughout the world
as were killed by the Nazi genocide

of the Jews over a six
year period.
This is
, in effect,
equivalent of an ongoing, unending,

in fact
accelerating, thermonuclear war, or genocide, perpetrated on the wea
k and
poor every year of every decade, throughout the world

The United States must not be complicit in this water emergency. We have a moral
obligation to address water contamination and unequal access.

Lexen, 2011
<Karin Lexén, Director, Swedish Water H
ouse, The human right to water and sanitation

From moral ¶ to legal obligation,

The right to water and sanitation is one of the most important aspects of development, and¶ an important
part of combating conflicts

during the humanitarian crises in the 90's, in Afric
a¶ for example, water and
sanitation played a key role
. But at the same time, people with access

to water do not seem to understand the
magnitude of the problem; do not realize that

clean drinking water is a luxury and that a lot of people lack access to
Children under the¶ age of five die of diarrhoea, dehydration and dysentery

due to lack of access to
clean¶ and safe water.¶
Financial crises and food crises makes it difficult
to work with water and sanitation
as a human¶ right; there is at the moment a lot of instability in the world and there have been some¶
negative trends
, for example the flooding in Pakistan, which destroyed fresh water supplies

and storages
Lack of
s to water is the source of bad health and conflicts

war and¶ peace are both in the context of water.¶
On all fronts, the role of water is central: the right to water, as a basic human right. It is stated¶ in the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights

article 3; the right to life, in article 21; the right

to adequate access to
public service in his country, in article 25; the right to adequate

standard of living, etc. The Millennium Development
Goals include the right to water and

sanitation, and in
order to achieve all goals, access to water and sanitation is
crucial. Access

to water affects all the other Millennium Development Goals; so it is crucial to put the

water issue at
the centre of development.

Advantage II: Agriculture

Drought is des
troying the Northern Mexico Agriculture sector. The impact is inevitable food
shortages throughout the country. New technology and infrastructure is key to solve

The News, June 18 2013

The News is an online newspaper detailing the events of Latin America
, “Water Shortages
Plague Mexico”

Farmers in northern Mexico have been severely affected by three years of extensive drought that have
forced the slaughter of thousands o
f head of cattle and damaged crops
. Emilio Romero Polanco, a professor
at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), said that
wheat, maize and sorghum yields have
all suffered because of the drought, which may lead to food shortages across the
Romero Polanco
said that
less rain has fallen so far in 2013 than over the period in 2012, and that many of the country’s
reservoirs are operating at 20
30 percent capacity

“The rainy season is just beginning, but the outlook is not
We don’t know if it will lessen (the effects of) the drought that we have experienced in recent
years,” he said

He added that
Mexico would need to invest in technology to better capture and store
rainwater as well as develop a culture of water

Scenario 1


Collapse of Mexican water supplies destroys their agricultural sector and economy.

Rosenberg & Torres ‘12

Mica & Noe, “Stubborn drought expected to tax Mexico for years”

March 21

A severe drought in Mexico


has cost

more than a billion dollars

n crop losses alone


et back the
national cattle herd for years,
is just a foretaste of the drier future[.]


Latin America's second largest

s water tankers race across northern Mexico to reac
h far
flung towns, and crops wither in the fields, the government
has allotted
34 billion pesos ($2.65 billion) in emergency ai

to confront the worst drought ever recorded in the country.
The water

wiped out millions of acres of farmland this winter,
caused 15 billion pesos ($1.18 billion) in
lost harvests, killed 60,000 head of cattle and weakened 2 million more

, pushing food prices higher in

The overall cost to the


is still being gauged but Mexico's drought
stung winter has been evolving for years and is expected to worse
n as
the effect of global climate change takes hold, according to the government.

"Droughts are cyclical

we know that

but they are growing more frequent
and severe due to climate change," said Elvira Quesada, the Minister for the Environment and Natura
l Resources.

According to


gricultural association,
poor weather destroyed some 7.5 million acres

(3 million hectares)
of cultivable
land in 2011


an area about the size of Belgium. The federal agriculture ministry puts the figure at about
half that.

That helped push Mexico's food
imports up 35 percent last year, a trend likely to persist through the 2012
13 crop cycle.

"There was talk of drought when I got here sixteen years ago,"
said Ignacio Becerra, a priest working in the rugged town of

Carichi in Chihuahua state, which has suffered massive water shortages. "This year, not even
corn or beans came up."

"Watering holes that never ran dry are empty. Without rain this situation is going to get even more serious," he said.

Zacatecas state, th
e country's main bean producer, harvested only a quarter of the usual crop after
months without rain.

Agriculture Minister Fransisco Mayorga said this week that Mexico will produce
21.8 million tonnes of corn in 2012 after a sharp drop in production in 201
1 to 19.2 million tonnes due
to the drought. The country may have to import white corn

used to make staple corn tortillas

top of yellow corn imports from the United States for animal feed.

The water shortage has forced
Mexican farmers to cut back
cattle herds as pasture lands dry out and increased the risk of wildfires,
which ravaged northern Mexico and the southern United States last spring.

accepting a dry future

Mexican President


an outspoken advocate for mitigating and adapting

to climate change, has
ordered his
government to start getting ready for tougher times.

Experts believe Mexico will have to spend
billions of dollars in the next two decades to maintain the water supply for irrigation and drinking

Water authority C
it must invest over 300 billion pesos ($23.68 billion) by 2030 to safeguard
and modernize infrastructure by sealing leaky pipes, expanding reservoirs and even recycling
household waste water.

As policymakers plot their response to climate chang
e, Mexicans must simply come to grip with years of little rain

and higher food
bills for


like beef.

Darrell Hargrove, owner of


and trucking firm Southwest


in Del Rio, Texas, said the price of Mexican cattle for
export to the United
States had jumped by about a third over the last month and a half.

Rising U.S. demand and shrinking herds in Mexico and north of the border raised the basic price for a 300 lb
head of cattle to about $2 per lb from $1.50 since February
, he said.

"We have the lowest cattle herd count here that we've had since about 1950," Hargrove said.

livestock prices in Mexico were up by some 12.5 percent on the year in February, official data shows.

Cattle ranchers in Chihuahua are watching the
ir herds wither from
malnutrition and say sick cows will have trouble reproducing, causing losses that could take a decade to recover.

food shortages

The human cost has also been

The government said it provided food rations to more than two million
people, though agricultural group AMSDA said
8 million people
had been affected by the lack of water.

More than 400,000 residents in the six driest states were
without water at the end of December

Conagua said, with
reservoirs in two states half
empty and

two less than a quarter full

The indigenous Tarahumara people of northern Mexico
suffered particularly hard, with tens of thousands of poor families hit.

The government says it
delivered millions of liters of milk and tonnes of food, but the situ
ation is acute.

"This year the Tarahumaras have not been able to harvest corn or beans,
which is the basis of their livelihood," said local priest Becerra. "And the worst is yet to come

April, May, June, July are the driest, hottest months ...
which will

make the situation much more serious and complex."

Deforestation worsened conditions for indigenous people
around the copper canyon in Chihuahua and many have left for cities to escape poverty and hunger

"We're at the point of no return. The northern
part of the country is drying out. If the rains don't come, the situation is going to be worse than serious. It
will be a disaster," he said.

While rain
starved communities pray for a downpour that would replenish wells and reservoirs, experts say the nort
hern half
of Mexico is in a persistent dry cycle.

"The current drought was probably unfolding 20 years ago," said Fernando Miralles
Wilhelm, a hydrologist with the
American Development Bank (IADB)."These dynamics are going to continue for the next fe
w decades."

The IADB, which works in Latin America and
the Caribbean, promises $1 out of every $4 it lends over the next three years will go to conservation as well as adapting and

mitigating climate change.
The bank lent nearly $11 billion last year.

A fl
eet of several thousands trailers is making round
clock trips in a race to get clean water to remote
communities, but it may not be enough if the drought wears on.

Summer rains typically break the winter dry spell but Conagua expects March rainfall to
be half of normal years and it does not see a break to the crisis before July.

Mexican economic collapse collapses the US economy and causes cartel takeover of the

COHA Research Associate Edward W.
Littlefield 09
, COHA is an NGO specialized in

monitoring Latin American
and Canadian Relations. <
mexico/> EHF

Harsh economic conditions on both sides of the border also promise to l
eave the 11.8 million Mexicans, or 10
percent of the Mexican population, living in the United States and their southern dependents in desperate
. In general, Hispanic unemployment in the United States rose from 5.1 percent in 2007 to 8.0
in 2008. Hispanic immigrants are heavily concentrated in the industries left most vulnerable by current
conditions, such as construction, manufacturing, leisure and hospitality, and support and personal services.
Americans’ increased concern with job avail
ability during the crisis further limits the economic livelihoods of
migrants and their families. The remittance flows of other Central American states with large migrant
populations in the United States, such as El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras, are n
ot expected to be as
severely effected as those of Mexico. Many of these immigrants are granted temporary protected status under
special arrangements with the United States, making their countries less vulnerable than Mexico to northern
political, legal, a
nd economic fluctuations. The fact that the United States and Mexico constitute, according to
the World Bank, the “largest immigration corridor in the world” further illustrates the profound effect the
decrease in migration and remittances may have on both

sides of the border. Evidently, through migration,
remittances, and NAFTA
induced trade integration, the Mexican economy has become increasingly dependent
upon that of the United States, making the former extremely vulnerable to the effects of the current

crisis. The decrease in migration flows and remittances is thus implicit in the current debate about Mexico’s
descent into being a “failed state.” A Mexican economic collapse, spurred by a decrease in the migrants and
remittances upon which the
country’ s economy is reliant, would weaken the state’s capacity to finance
narcotics activity, increase pay
rolls to prevent political and military officials from corruption related to
drug trafficking, recuperate the depressed economy, and keep t
heir best and brightest at home.


of developments would have a negative consequence for the United States economy
and the Obama
administration, as well
. Mexico is the United States’ third largest export market, and the cheap labor that
immigrants provide,
although not nearly as coveted given the current recession,

is an important part
of the national economy. Additionally, Mexico’s potential economic and military collapse deserves to be
viewed as a national security threat to the U.S., g
iven the spread of drug
related violence to border states
such as Arizona, where authorities blame a rise in home invasions and kidnappings on organized crime from
south of the border

US Economic collapse crushes the global economy causing nuclear war

obal economic collapse causes war.

Harris and Burrows, 9

*counselor in the National Intelligence Council, the principal drafter of Global Trends 2025, **member of the
NIC’s Long Range Analysis Unit “Revisiting the Future: Geopolitical Effects of the Fin
ancial Crisis”, Washington

Increased Potential for Global Conflict¶ Of course, the report encompasses more than economics and i
believes the future is likely to be the result of a number of intersecting and interlocking forces. With so many
possible permutations of outcomes, each with ample opportunity for unintended consequences, there is a
growing sense of insecurity. Even
so, history may be more instructive than ever
While we continue to believe
that the Great Depression is not likely to be repeated, the lessons to be drawn from that period include the
harmful effects on fledgling democracies and multiethnic societies

nk Central Europe in 1920s and 1930s)
and on the sustainability of multilateral institutions (think League of Nations in the same period).
There is no
reason to think that this would not be true in the twenty
first as much as in the twentieth century. For
reason, the ways in which the potential for greater conflict could grow would seem to be even more apt in a
constantly volatile economic environment

as they would be if change would be steadier.¶ In surveying those
risks, the report stressed the likel
ihood that terrorism and nonproliferation will remain priorities even as
resource issues move up on the international agenda. Terrorism’s appeal will decline if economic growth
continues in the Middle East and youth unemployment is reduced. For those terro
rist groups that remain
active in 2025, however, the diffusion of technologies and scientific knowledge will place some of the world’s
most dangerous capabilities within their reach
Terrorist groups in 2025 will likely be a combination of
descendants of l
ong established groups inheriting organizational structures
, command and control processes,
and training procedures necessary to conduct sophisticated attacks and newly emergent collections of the
angry and disenfranchised that become

radicalized, par
ticularly in the absence of economic outlets that
would become narrower in an economic downturn

The most dangerous casualty of any economically
induced drawdown of U.S. military presence would almost certainly be the Middle East

Although Iran’s
acquisition of nuclear weapons is not inevitable,
worries about a nuclear
armed Iran could lead states in the
region to develop new security arrangements with external powers, acquire additional weapons, and
consider pursuing their own nuclear ambitions. I
t is not clear that the type of stable deterrent relationship

that existed between the great powers for most
of the Cold War would emerge

naturally in the Middle East
with a nuclear Iran. Episodes of low intensity conflict and terrorism taking place under
a nuclear umbrella could
lead to an unintended escalation and broader conflict if clear red lines between those states involved are not
well established. The close proximity of potential nuclear rivals combined with underdeveloped surveillance

and mobile dual
capable Iranian missile systems also will produce inherent difficulties in achieving
reliable indications and warning of an impending nuclear attack.
The lack of strategic depth in neighboring
states like Israel, short warning and missile
flight times, and uncertainty of Iranian intentions may place
more focus on preemption rather than defense, potentially leading to escalating crises.¶
Types of conflict
that the world continues to experience, such as over resources, could reemerge, particu
larly if protectionism
grows and there is a resort to neo
mercantilist practices. Perceptions of renewed energy scarcity will drive
countries to take actions to assure their future access to energy supplies
. In the worst case, this could result
in intersta
te conflicts

if government leaders deem assured access to energy resources, for example, to be
essential for maintaining domestic stability and the survival of their regime. Even actions short of war,
however, will have important geopolitical implications.

Maritime security concerns are providing a rationale
for naval buildups and modernization efforts
, such as China’s and India’s development of blue water naval
capabilities. If the fiscal stimulus focus for these countries indeed turns inward, one of the m
ost obvious
funding targets may be military
Buildup of regional naval capabilities could lead to increased tensions,
rivalries, and counterbalancing moves,

but it also will create opportunities for multinational cooperation in
protecting critical sea lane
s. With water also becoming scarcer in Asia and the Middle East,

manage changing water resources
is likely to be increasingly difficult both within and between states in a
more dog
dog world

Scenario 2

global price spikes

Mexico agri
culture is key to keeping food prices down and addressing global hunger issues

Gates and

Carlos Slim

a Mexican business magnate, investor, and philanthropist,

Building on its success a half
century ago pioneering new varieties of wheat and maize that saved a billion
people from starvation, Mexico is again at the forefront of advances in agricultural development to help

countries become food self

Combining the latest breakthroughs in agricultural science and
farming practices with digital technology,
Mexico’s innovative efforts will enable even the poorest farmers to
grow and sell more crops.¶ Against the dr
amatic realities of climate change, a growing global population,
rising food prices, and a shrinking agricultural land base,
Mexico’s leadership in agricultural innovation is
critically important

especially to the countries of Sub
Saharan Africa where hund
reds of millions of people
face severe hunger and poverty.

Mexico’s Agriculture is essential to the Global Economy, it is a top provider for many food

Economy Watch, 2010

(Global News page) Economy Watch, Mexico


Mexico Agriculture is one of the biggest in the world and this has become a very important part of the
y's economy

as well. The Mexico Agriculture was not really a very prosperous one but after the
Mexico Revolution a reformation in agricultural sector and this was taken into action after the release
the 27th edition of the Mexican Constitution.¶
The Mexica
n Government encouraged only crops like
corn and beans until the year 1990 by restricting the import of these crops from other nations by
implying certain acts. After that, the
Mexico Agriculture

though has decreased in percentage of Gross
domestic product

but as a whole it
has increased in a remarkable way.
There are many products that are
produced by the Mexico Agriculture are among the top three ranks it terms of production in the world

Some of them are:¶
Mexico is ranked one in producing

things like
ions and Chayote, Avocados, Lemons
and Limes and the seed of Safflower. ¶ Mexico is ranked second for producing things like Papaya, Dry fruits,
chillies and peppers and some other things as well. ¶ Mexico is considered third in producing things like
s, mangoes, chicken meat, whole beans ,Asparagus and some other things

Food Price Spikes and global food shortage will cause extinction through disease, famine,
and resource conflict

Winnail 1996



[Douglas S., “On the Horizon: Famine,” Septe

As a result grain prices are the highest on record. Worldwatch Institute's president, Lester Brown, writes, "
No other economic indicator is
more politically sensitive that rising food prices.... Food p
rices spiraling out of control could trigger not only
economic instability but widespread political upheavals"

even wars
The chaotic weather conditions we have been
experiencing appear to be related to global warming caused by the release of pollutants into the earth's atmosphere. A recent

article entitled "Heading
for Apocalypse?" suggests the effects of global warming

its side effects of increasingly severe droughts, floods and storms
could be catastrophic,
especially for agriculture. The unpredictable shifts in temperature and rainfall will pose an increased risk of hunger and fa
mine for many of the world's
h world food stores dwindling
, grain production leveling off and a string of bad harvests around the world
the next

couple of
years will be critical
. Agricultural experts suggest it will take two bumper crops in a row to bring supplies back up to normal.

in 1996 and 1997
could create severe food shortages and push millions over the edge

Is it possible we are only
one or two harvests away from a global disaster? Is there any significance to what is happening today? Where is it all le
ading? What does the future
hold? The clear implication is that things will get worse before they get better.
Wars, famine and disease will affect the lives of
billions of people! Although famines have occurred at various times in the past, the new famines

will happen
during a time of unprecedented global stress
times that have no parallel in recorded history
at a time when
the total destruction of humanity would be possible!
Is it merely a coincidence that we are seeing a growing
menace of famine on a gl
obal scale at a time when the world is facing the threat of a resurgence of new and
old epidemic diseases, and the demands of an exploding population?
These are pushing the world's
resources to its limits! The world has never before faced such an ominous s
eries of potential global crises at
the same time

However, droughts and shrinking grain stores are not the only threats to world food supplies. According to the U.N.'s studies
, all 17
major fishing areas in the world have either reached or exceeded their
natural limits. In fact, nine of these areas are in serious decline. The realization
that we may be facing a shortage of food from both oceanic and land
based sources is a troubling one . It's troubling because seafood
the world's
leading source of animal

could be depleted quite rapidly. In the early 1970s, the Peruvian anchovy catch
the largest in the world
from 12 million tons to 2 million in just three years from overfishin
If this happens on a global scale, we will be in deep tro
This precarious situation is also without historical precedent

Scenario 3


Mexico is on the brink of social and political upheaval as a result of the drought that has
destroyed a significant portion of crop and livestock available to f
armers in Northern
Mexico. Nearly 2.5 million Mexicans are threatened with starvation unless action is taken to
reverse the destruction of Mexican Agriculture.

LaRouchePAC January 8 2012

Lyndon Larouche is an economist and political activist, “
Drought Thre
atens 2.5 Million Mexicans by Starvation”

Never were the need for the North American Water and Power Alliance (NAWAPA), and Lyndon LaRouche's
scientific revolution, more urgent. According to Emilio Romero Polanco, of the E
conomic Research Institute
(IIEc) at Mexico's National Autonomous University (UNAM
more than 2.5 million Mexicans are threatened
with starvation, unless immediate steps are taken to address the devastating drought now afflicting 50% of
the country's muni

The crisis is so severe, that in the states of Chihuahua, Zacatecas, and Durango,
25,000 children have stopped attending school, according to the National Federation of Associations of
Heads of Households. Families that depend on agriculture
have no money to buy food and other necessities,
or make the voluntary monetary contributions to allow children to go to school.

Romero erroneously
blames global warming for the drought

and suggests, absurdly, that one viable solution would be to transfer

agriculture from the northern (most productive) region, to the central and southern regions, where there is
more water. The government, in fact, has already begun doing this.
Despite this small, demoralized thinking,
Romero portrays an alarming picture, w
arning that food shortages and hunger in Mexico could produce the
same social and political upheaval that wracked countries like Haiti, Vietnam, Egypt, or Sudan

He estimates
that drought has destroyed at least 1.4 mn. hectares (approx. 3.5 mn acres) of f
ood crops, coming on top of
2011's loss of 3.2 mn. tons of corn, 600,000 tons of beans, and 60,000 head of cattle. In the state of
Tamaulipas, 70% of the grain harvest was lost; 40,000 cattle died in Durango, and unless water and forrage is
made available,

another 500,000 could die, Romero warned.

This social and political upheaval creates a safe
haven for terrorism

Brown 2009 (
Lester, environmental analyst, founder of the Worldwatch Institute, and founder and president
of the Earth Policy Institute, “CO
Scientific American
2009, Vol. 300 Issue 5, p50

In six of the past nine years world grain production has fallen short of consumption, forcing a steady drawdown
. When the 2008 harvest began, world carryover stocks of grain (the amount in the bin when the new
harvest begins) were at 62 days of consumption, a near r
ecord low. In response, world grain prices in the spring
and summer of last year climbed to the highest level ever.¶
As demand for food rises faster than supplies are
growing, the resulting food
price inflation puts severe stress on the governments of coun
tries already
the edge of



to buy grain or grow their own,
hungry people take to the streets
Indeed, even before the steep climb in grain prices in 2008, the number of failing states was expanding [see
sidebar at left]. Many of their problem's stem from a failure to slow the growt
h of their populations. But
if the
food situation continues to deteriorate
, entire
nations will break down

at an ever increasing rate.
We have
entered a new era in geopolitics.
In the 20th century the main threat to international security was
superpower co
nflict; today it is failing states
. It is not the concentration of power but its absence that puts us
at risk.¶
tates fail when national governments can no longer provide

personal security,
food security

basic social services such as education and hea
lth care. They often lose control of part or all of their territory.
When governments lose their monopoly on power, law and order begin to disintegrate. After a point, countries
can become so dangerous that food relief workers are no longer safe and their
programs are halted; in Somalia
and Afghanistan, deteriorating conditions have already put such programs in jeopardy.¶
Failing states are of
international concern because they are a source of terrorists, drugs, weapons and refugees, threatening
political s
tability everywher
. Somalia, number one on the 2008 list of failing states, has become a base for
piracy. Iraq, number five, is
a hotbed for terrorist training

Afghanistan, number seven, is the world's leading
supplier of heroin. Following the massive ge
nocide of 1994 in Rwanda, refugees from that troubled state,
thousands of armed soldiers among them, helped to destabilize neighboring Democratic Republic of the Congo
(number six).¶ Our global civilization depends on a functioning network of politically h
ealthy nation
states to
control the spread of infectious disease, to manage the international monetary system, to control international
terrorism and to reach scores of other common goals. If the system for controlling infectious diseases
such as
polio, S
ARS or avian flu
breaks down, humanity will be in trouble. Once states fail, no one assumes
responsibility for their debt to outside lenders.
If enough states disintegrate, their fall will threaten

stability of
global civilization


Mexico is t
he most likely entry point for a nuclear terrorist attack. The threat is real based
on the most recent security data

McCaul 2012

(Michael Thomas McCaul, Sr., U.S. Representative for Texas's 10th congressional district,
serving since 2005.

Since the beginning of the 113th Congress, he has been the Chairman of the House

rism remains a serious threat to the security of the United States

The Congressional Research Service
reports that between September 2001 and September 2012, there have been 59 homegrown violent jihadist
plots within the United States.
Of growing concern
and potentially a more violent threat to American citizens
is the enhanced ability of Middle East terrorist organizations, aided by their relationships and growing
presence in the Western Hemisphere, to exploit the Southwest border to enter the United Stat
undetected. This second edition emphasizes America’s ever
present threat from Middle East terrorist
networks, their increasing presence in Latin America, and the growing relationship with Mexican DTOs to
exploit paths into the United States
During the
period of May 2009 through July 2011, federal law
enforcement made 29 arrests for violent terrorist plots against the United States, most with ties to terror
networks or Muslim extremist groups in the Middle East. The vast majority of the suspects had eith
connections to special interest countries, including those deemed as state sponsors of terrorism or were
radicalized by terrorist groups such as al Qaeda. American
born al Qaeda Imam Anwar al Awlaki, killed in 2011,
was personally responsible for radica
lizing scores of Muslim extremists around the world. The list includes
born U.S. Army Major Nidal Hassan, the accused Fort Hood gunman; “underwear bomber” Umar
Faruk Abdulmutallab; and Barry Bujol of Hempstead, TX, convicted of providing material
support to al Qaeda in
the Arabian Peninsula. In several documented cases, al Awlaki moved his followers to commit “jihad” against
the United States.
These instances
, combined with recent events involving the Qods Forces, the terrorist arm
of the Iranian R
evolutionary Guard Corps, and Hezbollah,
serve as a stark reminder the United States remains
in the crosshairs of terrorist organizations and their associates

n May of 2012, the Los Angeles Times
reported that

intelligence gleaned from the 2011 raid on O
sama bin Laden’s compound indicated the world’s
most wanted terrorist sought to use operatives with valid Mexican passports who could illegally cross into
the United States to conduct terror operations
3 The story elaborated that bin Laden recognized the
mportance of al Qaeda operatives blending in with American society but felt that those with U.S. citizenship
who then attacked the United States would be violating Islamic law
Of equal concern is the possibility to
smuggle materials, including uranium, wh
ich can be safely assembled on U.S. soil into a weapon of mass

the standoff with Iran over its nuclear program
and the uncertainty of whether Israel
might attack Iran drawing the United States into a confrontation, only heightens con
cern that Iran or its
agents would attempt to exploit the porous Southwest border for retaliation.

Confronting the threat at the
Southwest border has a broader meaning today than it did six years ago. As this report explains, the United
States tightened se
curity at airports and land ports of entry in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terrorist
attacks, but
the U.S.
Mexico border is an obvious weak link in the chain.
Criminal elements could migrate
down this path of least resistance, and with them the terro
rists who continue to seek our destruction
federal government must meet the challenge to secure America’s unlocked back door from the dual threat of
drug cartels and terrorist organizations who are lined up, and working together, to enter.

Nuclear terrorist attack causes retaliation and extinction

Ayson ’10

Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at
the Victoria

University of Wellington (Robert, “After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envis
aging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in
Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)

A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear weapons in response by the country attacked in the
first place, would not necessarily represent
the worst of the nuclear worlds imaginable. Indeed, there are reasons to wonder

nuclear terrorism should

be regarded as

belonging in the category of truly

s. A contrast can be draw
n here with the global catastrophe that would come from a massive
nuclear exchange between two or more of the sovereign states that possess these weapons in significant numbers. Even the wors
t terrorism that the
first century might bring would fade
into insignificance alongside considerations of what a general nuclear war would have wrought in the Cold
War period. And it must be admitted that as long as the major nuclear weapons states have hundreds and even thousands of nucl
ear weapons at their
osal, there is always the possibility of a truly awful nuclear exchange taking place precipitated entirely by state possessor
s themselves. But these two
nuclear worlds

a non
state actor nuclear attack and a catastrophic interstate nuclear exchange

are not
necessarily separable. It is just possible that
some sort of terrorist attack, and especially an act

nuclear terrorism, could precipitate

a chain of events leading to

exchange of nuclear weapons

between two or more of the states that possess t
hem. In this context, today’s and tomorrow’s terrorist groups
might assume the place allotted during the early Cold War years to new state possessors of small nuclear arsenals who were se
en as raising the risks of a
catalytic nuclear war between the superp
owers started by third parties. These risks were considered in the late 1950s and early 1960s as concerns grew
about nuclear proliferation, the so
called n+1 problem. It may require a considerable amount of imagination to depict an especially plausible sit
where an act of nuclear terrorism could lead to such a massive inter
state nuclear war. For example, in the event of a terrorist nuclear attack on the
United States, it might well be wondered just how Russia and/or China could plausibly be brought i
nto the picture, not least because they seem unlikely
to be fingered as the most obvious state sponsors or encouragers of terrorist groups. They would seem far too responsible to
be involved in supporting
that sort of terrorist behavior that could just as
easily threaten them as well. Some possibilities, however remote, do suggest themselves. For example,
how might the United States react if it was thought or discovered that the fissile material used in the act of nuclear terror
ism had come from Russian
cks,40 and if for some reason Moscow denied any responsibility for nuclear laxity? The correct attribution of that nuclear ma
terial to a particular
country might not be a case of science fiction given the observation by Michael May et al. that while the de
bris resulting from a nuclear explosion would
be “spread over a wide area in tiny fragments, its radioactivity makes it detectable, identifiable and collectable, and a wea
lth of information can be
obtained from its analysis: the efficiency of the explosion
, the materials used and, most important … some indication of where the nuclear material came
from.”41 Alternatively, if the act of nuclear terrorism came as a complete surprise, and American officials refused to believ
e that a terrorist group was
fully re
sponsible (or responsible at all)
suspicion would shift immediately to state possessors
. Ruling out Western ally countries like
the United Kingdom and France, and probably Israel and India as well, authorities in Washington would be left with a very sho
list consisting of North
Korea, perhaps Iran if its program continues, and possibly Pakistan. But at what stage would Russia and China be definitely r
uled out in this high stakes
game of nuclear Cluedo? In particular, if the act of nuclear terrorism occurr
ed against a backdrop of existing tension in Washington’s relations with
Russia and/or China, and at a time when threats had already been traded between these major powers, would officials and polit


not be
tempted to



? Of course, the chances of this occurring would only seem to increase if the United States was already involved in
some sort of limited armed conflict with Russia and/or China, or if they were confronting each other from a distance in a pro
xy war, as unli
kely as these
developments may seem at the present time. The reverse might well apply too: should a nuclear terrorist attack occur in Russi
a or China during a period
of heightened tension or even limited conflict with the United States, could Moscow and Be
ijing resist the pressures that might rise domestically to
consider the United States as a possible perpetrator or encourager of the attack? Washington’s early response to a terrorist
nuclear attack on its own soil
might also raise the possibility of an un
wanted (and nuclear aided) confrontation with Russia and/or China. For example, in the noise and confusion
during the immediate aftermath of the terrorist nuclear attack,

president might

be expected to

place the country’s

forces, including i
nuclear arsenal, on

er stage

In such a tense environment, when careful planning runs up against the friction
of reality, it is just possible that

Moscow and
China might mistake
nly read

this as a sign

of U.S. intentions to use

nd possibly
nuclear force
against them. In that situation, the temptations to preempt such actions might grow, although it must be admitted that
any preemption would probably still meet with a devastating response. As part of its initial response to the a
ct of nuclear terrorism (as discussed earlier)
Washington might

decide to

order a significant

conventional (or
retaliatory or disarming

attack against

the leadership
of the


group and/or states seen to support that group. Depending on the

identity and especially the location of these targets, Russia and/or
China might interpret such action as being far too close for their comfort, and potentially as an infringement on their spher
es of influence and even on
their sovereignty. One far
d but perhaps not impossible scenario might stem from a judgment in Washington that some of the main aiders and
abetters of the terrorist action resided somewhere such as Chechnya, perhaps in connection with what Allison claims is the “C
hechen insurgents’
… long
standing interest in all things nuclear.”42 American pressure on that part of the world would almost certainly raise alarms i
n Moscow that might require
a degree of advanced consultation from Washington that the latter found itself unable or unwilli
ng to provide. There is also the question of how other
armed states respond to the act of nuclear terrorism on another member of that special club. It could reasonably be expected
that following a
nuclear terrorist attack on the United States, both

Russia and China would extend immediate sympathy and support to Washington and would work
alongside the United States in the Security Council. But there is just a chance, albeit a slim one, where the support of Russ
ia and/or China is less
automatic in som
e cases than in others. For example, what would happen if the United States wished to discuss its right to retaliate against
groups based
in their territory? If, for some reason,

found the responses of Russia and China deeply underwhelming, (nei
ther “for us or against us”)

it also
suspect that they


were in cahoots with the group, increasing

again perhaps ever so slightly)
chances of a
major exchange
. If the terrorist group had some connections to groups in Russia and China, or

existed in areas of the world over
which Russia and China held sway, and if Washington felt that Moscow or Beijing were placing a curiously modest level of pres
sure on them, what
conclusions might it then draw about their culpability? If Washington decide
d to use, or decided to threaten the use of, nuclear weapons, the responses
of Russia and China would be crucial to the chances of avoiding a more serious nuclear exchange. They might surmise, for exam
ple, that while the act of
nuclear terrorism was especi
ally heinous and demanded a strong response, the response simply had to remain below the nuclear threshold. It would be
one thing for a non
state actor to have broken the nuclear use taboo, but an entirely different thing for a state actor, and indeed the
leading state in the
international system, to do so. If Russia and China felt sufficiently strongly about that prospect, there is then the questio
n of what options would lie open
to them to dissuade the United States from such action: and as has been seen
over the last several decades, the central dissuader of the use of nuclear
weapons by states has been the threat of nuclear retaliation. If some readers find this simply too fanciful, and perhaps even

offensive to contemplate, it
may be informative to reve
rse the tables. Russia, which possesses an arsenal of thousands of nuclear warheads and that has been one of the two most
important trustees of the non
use taboo, is subjected to an attack of nuclear terrorism. In response, Moscow places its nuclear forces

very visibly on a
higher state of alert and declares that it is considering the use of nuclear retaliation against the group and any of its sta
te supporters. How would
Washington view such a possibility? Would it really be keen to support Russia’s use of
nuclear weapons, including outside Russia’s traditional sphere of
influence? And if not, which seems quite plausible, what options would Washington have to communicate that displeasure? If Ch
ina had been the victim
of the nuclear terrorism and seemed likel
y to retaliate in kind, would the United States and Russia be happy to sit back and let this occur? In the charged
atmosphere immediately after a nuclear terrorist attack, how would the attacked country respond to pressure from other major
nuclear powers n
ot to
respond in kind? The phrase “how dare they tell us what to do” immediately springs to mind. Some might even go so far as to i
nterpret this concern as a
tacit form of sympathy or support for the terrorists. This might not help the chances of nuclear r


Increasing funding for the Border Environment Infrastructure fund can leads to effective
Water Sanitation and Waste
water treatment infrastructure. The program has a history of
success and avoids the problems association with loans

Espinosa in 2010

Salvador (Assistant Professor of Public Finances and Policy Analysis at the School of Public Affairs, San
Diego State University) “Financing Border Environmental Infrastructure: Where are we? Where to go
from here?” This document has bee
n prepared for the Border X Seminar that will take place in Rio Rico,
AZ (March 8

Another source of funds for border environmental infrastructure is the N
orth American
Development Bank (NADB), which is a bi
national financial institution that provides low
financing alternatives for border projects that fall within the scope of its mandate

(see table 1
above) and which are previously certified by a Bord
er Environmental Cooperation Commission
(BECC). As of today,
the Bank has four lending mechanisms to support the construction of
environmental infrastructure
: a traditional loan program that offers funds at market rates or
interest rates
; a Border Infr
astructure Fund (BEIF) that allocates grants from the
Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in municipal drinking water and wastewater projects;
Solid Waste Environmental Program (SWEP) and a Water Conservation Investment Fund
his institution
is an important financial intermediary in the border region
As a recent
report indicates, as of September 2009, BECC had certified 161 environmental infrastructure
projects with an estimated cost of US$3.46 billion.
The same document mentions that NADB ha
contracted more than USD$1.03 billions in loans to support 130 of these projects, which
represents 93% of all approved funding (NADB
BECC. 2009). These numbers are good
indicators of the importance of NADB in terms of project financing.
Unfortunately, th
indicators do not permit a proper assessment of two issues that are crucial to understanding
some of the challenges of this funding mechanism: the cost of financing loans with NADB and
the capacity of the borrower to repay

Adequately funding the Bor
der Environment Infrastructure Fund can create access to safe
drinking water and eliminate sewage contamination of rivers and surface waters needed for
agricultural development. The program has a history of success.

Depass and Lend, 2011

<Michelle and Enr
ique, national coordinators U.S. and Mexico, Border Progress
report, 2011

Developing infrastructure to deliver safe drinking water to people and to reduce untreated discharges to
border region rivers, aquifers, and oceans has been a high priority
of Border 2012 and previous bi
environmental programs;

Border Environment Infrastructure Fund (BEIF),

combined with funds from partner
agencies in Mexico and the U.S.,
help make projects affordable for communities in the Border Region. In
2003, an estimated 98,575 homes lacked safe drinking water and an estim
ated 690,723 homes lacked
adequate wastewater collection and treatment service. Since then, an estimated 52,130 homes were
connected to a safe community drinking water system, representing 53% of the homes that lacked service in

The 254,125 homes con
nected to adequate wastewater collection and treatment service during this
same period represents 37% of the homes that lacked service in 2003
A lack of wastewater service poses
both a public health and environmental risk to communities. The impacts of r
aw sewage discharges to a river
or stream include pathogens that make the water unsafe for recreation or reuse
, organic loads that deplete
oxygen and choke aquatic life, and nutrients that lead to algal blooms.
Wastewater collection and treatment
can dramatically reduce contamination of rivers and surface waters by removing untreated or
inadequately treated sewage discharges, which provides environmental benefit as well as public health
benefits. For every household that is hooked up to a collectio
n and treatment system, roughly 200 gallons of
raw sewage per day is prevented from reaching our shared waterways

Increasing the funding to 100 million can address the contaminated drinking water situation
in Mexico

Natural Resources Defense Council,

e Natural Resources Defense Council is a New York City
profit, non
partisan international environmental advocacy group, with offices in Washington, D.C., San
Francisco, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Beijing.,, Hidden Danger Environmental He
alth Threats in the
Latino Community

To begin addressing the problem of poor drinking water quality in Latino communities,

Congress should
increase funding for the Border Environmental Infrastr
ucture Fund from $50 million to $100 million to build
and improve drinking water systems in the U.S.
Mexico border region.

BEIF funding facilitates grants to small communities for water projects. There are no delay
issues in providing the loans. The issues that have caused delay in the past have been
resolved AND the grants can be packaged with traditional NADBank loans.

no date

<Susan, Susan Combs is a politician from the U.S. state of Texas, currently serving as the
state's Comptroller of Public Accounts, Window Into Government,

By March 1997, NADBank
governed and funded equally by Mexico and the U.S.
had received $337
million in paid
in capital and $1.9 billion in callable capital, or funds set aside to meet future
outstanding debts.

By the side agreement, NADBank financing was limited to Border environmental
infrastructure projects certified by the BECC.
¶ NADBank has been criticized by some observers for its

Originally chartered in November 1993 and based in San Antonio, as of mid
1998 the bank
had funded or approved six major project loans
two in the U.S. and four in Mexico
and has 15
others in development stages.

¶ NADBank officials say that, although Mexico is a full partner, the bank
is still viewed as a foreign financial institution and key constitutional questions had to be addressed before it
could operate as envis
ioned. Now that these issues are resolved and the legal framework is in place, the
bank expects project loans to flow at a much quicker pace.

, Texas, is the site of one of
NADBank's early projects. The project, approved in late 1996 and schedule
d for completion in 1999,
involves an interim loan from the bank to help fund a $4.1 million expansion of water and sewer
systems. Among the beneficiaries of the new utilities will be 4,000

The Border
Environmental Infrastructure Fund
an EPA
funded, NADBank
administered grant program
helps pay
some construction costs for projects. Money from the fund can be packaged as part of NADBank

to make projects more affordable for small communities.


It is Trade

Plan is topical

the becc and NADb who supports the BEIF loans are part of NAFTA efforts
for sustainable drinking water

Epa 2013
< FY 2014

Draft National Water Pro
gram Guidance
, Office of Water,

April 2013,

The U.S. and Mexico have a long
standing commitment to protect the environment and public health for
communities in th
e U.S.
Mexico Border Region139
The bi
national agreement that guides efforts to improve
environmental conditions in the U.S.
Mexico Border Region is the
Border 2020
. Partnerships are
critical to the success of efforts to improve the environme
nt and public health in the U.S.
Mexico Border
Since 1995, the NAFTA141
created institutions, the Border Environment Cooperation Commission
(BECC) and the North American Development Bank (NADB), have worked closely with communities to
develop and c
onstruct environmental infrastructure projects. BECC and NADB support efforts to evaluate,
plan, and implement financially and operationally sustainable drinking water and wastewater projects

Can be Aid

Economic engagement is trade, investment, lending,
aid and monetary policy

Vickery, 11

former Assistant Secretary of Commere for Trade and Development in the Clinton Administration
and former Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center

The Eagle and the Elephant: Strategic
Aspects of U.S.
India Economic Engagement
, p. 3

Economic engagement has profound effects on the ability of nations to cooperate on strategic issues.

the purposes of this book, the term “strategic” is used in its broadest sense to denote major issues of
onal significance. These issues require the use of political strategy for their solution or amelioration.
From this perspective, defense and military security matters are certainly strategic issues. However, the
transnational issues of energy, the envir
onment, economic development, food, and health also require
strategic approaches if they are to be addressed successfully. Therefore, these issues are also strategic aspects
of international relations.

The “economic engagement” under consideration here ha
ppens in both the public and private sectors.
and investment are the most prominent categories of economic engagement
, and the ones usually cited for
political effects. Trade and investment in turn can be divided into component parts. Because trad
e in goods is
more easily and more accurately measured than that in services, trade in goods is the type of trade usually
referenced for its political effect. But this convention is outdated. Services now tend to hold a dominant
position in most develope
d economies. As a developing economy, India prides itself on having a world
information technology services industry. Information
enabled services are arguably now
preeminent in their political impact on the abilities of India and the Un
ited States to cooperate strategically.

Similarly, international investment can be broken down into foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign
portfolio, institutional or indirect investment (FII). FDI involves some management of the enterprise is which
an equity interest is acquired. FDI is usually thought of as being a more stable and longer
term investment
providing greater opportunities for technology and management skill transfer. FDI is viewed by many
government officials as having a greater polit
ical impact on the ability of the United States and India to
cooperate strategically on issues of broad transnational importance. FDI in plant and equipment,
infrastructure, and other projects continue to be viewed favorably by both Indian and US official
s. In
particular, Indian officials see the United States’ FDI in a positive light and profess to encourage more of it.

FII seems less welcome in India. FII is viewed as being less stable and more likely to cause domestic dislocation.
Heavy US investor

withdrawal from the India stock market in 2008 and 2009 were subject to political criticism.
However, in 2010 the Indian economy was on a sharper growth path than that of the United States and was
likely to remain so for the foreseeable future. Indian c
ommentators took pride in the return of international
institutional investors to the Indian market. Although Indian officials resisted calls to restrict FII, the influential
Indian elite involved in these markets seemed to give the United States little cr
edit for this inflow of FII.

Public and private lending also play a role in US
India economic engagement
. Bilaterally, public lending is
chiefly through the subsidized mechanism of the US Export
Import Bank. In effect, the Ex
Im Bank’s program
allows Ind
ian purchasers of US exports to borrow at below
market rates. The international lending agencies
such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank are usually not thought of as bilateral institutions.
Yet the reality is that because of US influence i
n the lending operations of both institutions, the funds they
provide are significant in the US
India relationship. However, lending from private sources is vastly larger than
public lending. Even so, the potential importance of private lending for econo
mic engagement has been held
down in the case of India by restrictive Indian laws and regulations. These strictures have been credited by
many Indians with helping India avoid some of the worst aspects of both the Asian financial crisis in the 1990s
and t
he recent international financial crisis that began in the United States.

Aid flows can also have a significant effect on the ability and willingness of the United States and India to
address strategic issues. Historically,
US government aid to India has
been a fundamental type of US
economic engagement
and has had a direct impact on US
India strategic cooperation. US aid has been both
monetary and in kind. Monetary aid has gone to projects ranging from health to energy to child labor. The
most ou
tstanding example of in
kind aid has been the so
called Public Law 480 sale of US agricultural
commodities for Indian currency that could only be spent within India. With the diminution of US government
aid to India during the last two decades, private as
sistance has become more important. The Bill & Melinda
Gates and William J. Clinton foundations, along with numerous India
centric charities such as the American
India Foundation, constitute a subcategory of US
India economic engagement particularly impor
tant to US
India strategic cooperation in health and education.

On a macroeconomic level, the various government actions affecting currency valuations may also be seen
as a type of economic engagement that also effects strategic cooperation
. Certainly, th
e struggles at the
Group of Twenty and elsewhere to deal with imbalances and stimulus measures are a type of engagement
central to international relations. In the case of the United States and India, the strength and mutuality of the
underlying trade, inv
estment, lending and aid relationships seem to have driven the two countries in the
direction of cooperation in their efforts to meet the most recent worldwide financial and economic crisis.

In summary, “
economic engagement” includes trade, investment, lending, aid, and the monetary and
regulatory interactions that effect these categories of engagement

Economic engagement is aid, trade, lifting sanctions, and entry into economic institutions


and O’Sullivan, 2k


*Vice President and

Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution
AND **a Fellow with the Foreign Policy Studies

Program at the Brookings Institution (Richard and Meghan,
“Terms of Engagement:

Alternatives to Punitiv

Policies” Survival,, vol. 42, no. 2, Summer 2000

Architects of engagement strategies can choose from a wide variety of incentives. Economic engagement
might offer tangible incentives such as export credits, investment insurance or promotion, access to
technology, loans and economic aid

ly useful
economic incentives involve the removal of
penalties such as trade embargoes, investment bans or high tariffs
, which have impeded economic relations
between the United States and the target country.
Facilitated entry into the economic global aren
a and the
institutions that govern it rank among the most potent incentives in today’s global market
. Similarly,
engagement can involve the lure of diplomatic recognition, access to regional or international institutions, the
scheduling of summit
s between leaders

or the termination of these benefits. Military engagement could
involve the extension of international military educational training in order both to strengthen respect for
civilian authority and human rights among a country’s armed for
ces and, more feasibly, to establish
relationships between Americans and young foreign military officers. While these areas of engagement are
likely to involve working with state institutions, cultural or civil
society engagement entails building people
people contacts. Funding nongovernmental organisations, facilitating the flow of remittances and promoting
the exchange of students, tourists and other non
governmental people between countries are just some of the
possible incentives used in the form of

Can be private and Unconditional

Economic engagement can be unconditional and towards the private sector

Haass and O’Sullivan, 2k


*Vice President and

Director of Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution
AND **a Fellow with the

Foreign Policy Studies

Program at the Brookings Institution (Richard and Meghan,
“Terms of Engagement:

Alternatives to Punitive

Policies” Survival,, vol. 42, no. 2, Summer 2000

The provision of economic incentives to the private sector of a target country can be an effective mode of
‘unconditional’ e
, particularly when the economy is not state dominated. In these more open
economic climates, those nourished by the exchanges made possible under economic engagement will often
be agents for change and natural allies in some Western causes.
To th
e extent that economic engagement
builds the private sector and other non
state actors, it is likely to widen the base of support for engagement
with America

specifically and the promotion of international norms more generally. Certainly, US engagement
h China has nurtured sympathetic pockets, if not to American ideals per se, then at least to trade and open
economic markets and the maintenance of good relations to secure them. The only constraint on the scope
and development of ‘unconditional’ engagemen
t is the range of available collaborators in civil society or the
private sector. Fortunately, globalisation and
the explosion of economic entities

that has accompanied it

while making economic isolation more difficult to achieve

presents a multitude o
f possible partners for
unconditional engagement with non
state actors

Can be Unconditional

Economic engagement can be conditional or unconditional

Kahler, 6

Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San

(M., “Strategic Uses of Economic Interdependence: Engagement Policies on the Korean Peninsula and Across
the Taiwan Strait” in Journal of Peace Research (2006), 43:5, p. 523
541, Sage Publications)

Scholars have usefully distinguished between two t
ypes of economic engagement: conditional policies that
require an explicit quid pro quo on the part of the target country and policies that are unconditional
Conditional policies
, sometimes labeled linkage or economic 'carrots',
are the inverse of
economic sanctions.
Instead of threatening a target country with economic loss

in the absence of policy change,
conditional engagement policies promise increased economic benefits in return for desired policy change
Drezner (1999/2000) has prop
osed several plausible predictions regarding the employment of conditional
strategies and the conditions of their success. He argues that the successful use of economic engagement is
most likely between democracies (because democracies are better able to m
ake credible commitments than
democracies), within the context of international regimes (because regimes reduce the transactions costs
of market exchange), and, among adversaries, only after coercive threats are first used.

coercive threats are first

The success of a conditional engagement strategy should also be contingent on a state's influence over
domestic firms. If those firms find market
based transactions with the target state unappealing, a government
pursuing a conditional strategy must

convince them to deal with the target when desired change occurs. On
the other hand, if domestic firms have strong economic incentives to conduct economic transactions with the
target state, a successful conditional strategy must prevent them from pursuin
g their economic exchange in
the absence of the desired change in a target states behavior. In this regard, democracies may have a harder
time pursuing a conditional strategy: in a democratic setting, firms are likely to be openly critical of politicians
ho try to restrict their commercial activities and will support candidates who do not place such demands on
them. Our first hypothesis (HI), therefore, is that conditional engagement strategies will be less likely to
succeed if the initiating state is a de
mocracy, especially when underlying economic incentives to trade with or
invest in the target state are strong.2

Unconditional engagement strategies are more passive than conditional variants in that they do not include
a specific quid pro quo
Rather, co
untries deploy economic links with an adversary in the hopes that
economic interdependence itself will
, over time,
change the target's foreign policy behavior and yield a
reduced threat of military conflict
. How increased economic integration at the bilate
ral level might produce an
improved bilateral political environment is not obvious. While most empirical studies on the subject find that
increased economic ties tend to be associated with a reduced likelihood of military violence, no consensus

exists (e.g. Russett & Oneal, 2001; Oneal & Russett, 1999; for less sanguine results, see Barbieri,
1996). At a minimum, state leaders might seek to exploit two causal pathways by pursuing a policy of
unconditional engagement: economic interdependence can

act as a constraint on the foreign policy behavior of
the target state, and economic interdependence can act as a transforming agent that reshapes the goals of the
target state.

It doesn’t have to be conditional

Shirk, 9

Director, Institute on Global
Conflict and Cooperation (IGCC)

Ho Miu Lam Professor, School of
International Relations and Pacific Studies,

University of California, San Diego (Susan, “North Korea Inside Out:

The Case for Economic Engagement” December,

While some engagement should continue to be conditioned

on progress on the nuclear and other fronts,
many forms of engagement should proceed with no conditions attached .

Our report is focused on the
economic side of engagement
and particularly on

forms of
economic engagement that can

and should

without any conditionality
, as first steps in
a process of phased engagement.

Inherency Extensions

Water shortage in Mexico caused by a lack of infrastructure.