yesterday & tomorrow

healthyapricotMechanics

Nov 5, 2013 (4 years and 2 days ago)

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Motivation for full automation


we need it …
yesterday & tomorrow






Energy Efficiency through Automation


Tyler Folsom, PhD, PE

QUEST Integrated, Inc.


91
st

Meeting of the Transportation Research Board of the
National Academy

Jan. 22, 2012, Washington DC


Time Frames


Business: Next quarter; fiscal year


Politics: Next election


Transportation planners: 30 years


Iroquois nation: 7th generation

$$$


“The
economy is a wholly owned subsidiary of the
ecosystem.”
-

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.


Lovins

in “Reinventing Fire” finds that it is possible
for the U.S. to eliminate all petroleum, coal and
nuclear energy by 2050 with a savings of $3.8T in
transportation while increasing transport volume.
Renewable energy is more job intensive than oil or
coal.


Gilbert and Perl in “Transport Revolutions” chart
how the U.S. and China can each eliminate oil by
2030.

National
Security


European countries fought wars over access to
salt.


Making oil no more strategic than salt
eliminates the need to protect resources
militarily.


There is evidence that the demand for oil is
peaking before the supply peaks.


A gallon of gasoline delivered to Afghanistan
costs $25 to $45.

Reasons to eliminate oil


Environmental: Pollution, sustainability, global
warming


National security: Devalue the
principal
asset
of unfriendly countries


Business: High oil prices, high oil volatility,
better opportunities elsewhere

WIKISPEED

Electric

Year

Price

Range

Tesla roadster

2008

$100,009

244

Nissan Leaf

2011

$33,000

100

Mitsubishi
MiEV

2009

$29,000

62
-
100

Coda

2012

$41,000

150

Toyota Scion IQ

2012

50

BMW i3

2013

$35,000

100

Plug
-
in hybrids

Year

Price

Range

Chevy Volt

2011

$40,000

40

Toyota Prius plug
-
in

2012

$32,000

15

Gasoline

Year

Price

mpg

Volkswagen SL1

2013

230

Announced cars


Transport Revolutions



Britain's move to railways, starting in 1830.


Substantial reversal of automobile travel in the
U.S. during
World
War II.


The change from ships to planes for
transatlantic travel.


The introduction of high speed rail from 1960
to 1985.


The use of air freight starting in 1980.

U.S. driving habits


5% use mass transit.


Average bus occupancy is 8.8 people.


88% drive to work with 76% traveling alone.


Average trip to work is 12 mi @ 28 mph.


19% of trips are to work.


30% of trips are social and recreational.



Average car occupancy is 1.57 people.


65% of miles driven are urban.


Energy to move vehicle


Power = K1*V + K2 * V3



For a car, rolling resistance is dominant until
35 mph.


For a light vehicle, air drag takes over at 12
mph.

Energy to overcome rolling

resistance

dW
/
dt

= C
V

Σm·g
[C
R
+s/100+a/g(1+m
W
/
Σm
)]

C
V
: Speed of vehicle

η: Overall mechanical efficiency of transmission

Σm
: Total mass of vehicle, rider and baggage

g: Gravitational acceleration

C
R
: Coefficient of rolling resistance

s: Upslope (%)

a: vehicle acceleration

m
W
: Effective rotational mass of wheels

Safety allows smaller vehicles


93% of accidents are caused wholly or in part
by human factors.


41% of fatal accidents involve alcohol.


Annual U.S. economic cost of accidents is
$230B.


Autonomous trains are an order of magnitude
safer than manual trains.


When all vehicles are computer controlled, a
motorcycle is almost as safe as an SUV.

Energy to overcome

aerodynamic drag

dW
/
dt

= 0.5 C
V
/η C
D

A ρ (C
V
+C
W
)
2

C
V
: Speed of vehicle

η: Overall mechanical efficiency of transmission

C
D
: Aerodynamic drag coefficient

A: Frontal area of vehicle and rider

ρ: Air density

C
W
: Headwind

Motorcycle

1.8

Bicycle

1.1

Bus

0.6


0.8

Toyota Prius

0.26

Pod car

0.20

Urbee

0.15

Supersonic
fighter

0.016

Drag coefficients



Urbee

is a two passenger car designed for
sustainability

City driving cycles

Typical light rail: 15.5 mile line.

Scheduled time is 38 minutes.

Average speed = 24.5 mph or 22 mph with wait.

Average
speed (mph)

Maximum
speed (mph)

Time stopped or
decelerating (%)

U.S.A.

19

56

43

Europe

20

74

25

Japan

15

43

52

1000 mpg is possible


An electric pod
-
car has travelled 62 miles in
one hour on two ordinary lead
-
acid batteries;
equivalent to 2200 mpg.


Practical vehicles weighing less than the rider
can achieve a 30 mile range from a 20
lb

battery; refueling by battery swap becomes
practical.


Even if pod
-
car electricity comes from coal,
U.S. carbon savings can be equivalent to 12
trains of 100 coal cars daily.


Details and references


T. C. Folsom, Social Implications of Autonomous
Urban Land Vehicles, IEEE Technology and
Society Magazine, Spring, 2012.


T.Folsom @ qi2. com


www. enviroteach. com