community energy initiatives

hartebeestgrassAI and Robotics

Nov 7, 2013 (4 years and 1 day ago)

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield




Triple bottom line impacts of
community energy initiatives


Crossing disciplinary boundaries with
Bayesian Networks

Philip
A Leicester BSc DIS




School of Civil and Building Engineering


Centre for Renewable Energy and Systems Technology

Loughborough University





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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

Presentation Objectives


Introduce the research project.


Describe the utility of Bayesian Networks as a
methodology for this problem domain.


Demonstrate the adoption of Solar PV and
impact on fuel poverty as a case study.


Highlight the future potential of the
methodology


Solicit feedback from domain experts!

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

Research Aim:


To develop and validate a
methodology for the
evaluation

of the
triple bottom line

impacts

of
community energy
initiatives.

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield


Problems are wicked



Parameters are characterised by
uncertainty



All models are wrong



Quants

and

quals

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

While fuel prices and low
incomes are constituent factors,
the real cause of fuel poverty is
the energy inefficiency of the
home .

B. Boardman 2012

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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....I find myself referring to reports published by CSE going back
several years which presented findings that are extremely
pertinent to the debates we are having now.


So one, some or all of the following must apply:


CSE is failing to communicate the things we’ve discovered;


‘the system’ (DECC,
Ofgem
, BIS,
DoH

and their former
incarnations) isn’t listening to us;


‘the system’ is unable to assimilate evidence and

analysis


Ian Preston, “Fuel Poverty


reasons for being

Seriously unimpressed.” CSE 14 November 2012.

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

Thomas
Bayes

1701
-
1761

Judae

Pearl 1936

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

With Grateful thanks to Ben Anderson, CRESEI, Essex University


B. Anderson, “ESTIMATING SMALL AREA INCOME DEPRIVATION

: AN ITERATIVE PROPORTIONAL FITTING APPROACH.” 2011.

PAY STATEMENT

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield


Can solar PV help alleviate fuel
poverty?


Walker, G., 2008. Decentralised systems and fuel poverty: Are there
any links or risks? Energy Policy 36, 4514
-
4517.


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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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YES 21.6%

YES 17.5%

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

Conclusion



Bayesian Networks can propagate probabilistic causal relations and
facilitate prognostic and diagnostic inference.



Can combine expert opinion (subjective probability) with quantitative
(frequentist probability) from multiple knowledge domains.



Explicate a complex problem with intuitive causal map and systems
thinking



Facilitate decision making under uncertainty


But...



Require rich data and conditional probabilities . . . we need to share data!


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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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END

Thanks for listening

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

Questions / Feedback

More information

Contact

p.a.leicester@lboro.ac.uk

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Fuel poverty in policy and practice
-

a postgraduate symposium

Friday 16th November 2012

Interdisciplinary Centre of the Social Sciences, University of Sheffield

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Leicester et al 2011