Growing Up in Ireland
Conference
Professor John Bynner, Longview
7
th
December 2009, Dublin
Contents
1.
Why longitudinal data research
2.
Longitudinal studies: time and place
3.
The studies
4.
Context of social change
5.
Intergenerational continuity
6.
Changing life course process
7.
Trajectories of disadvantage and policy challenge
Value of longitudinal data
Predicting consequences of early experience and
circumstances
–
e.g. childhood disadvantage
Explaining outcomes
–
e.g. NEET
Estimating returns
–
e.g. to qualifications
Identifying factors that override predictions
–
e.g. “escape
from disadvantage”
Life course dynamics
–
e.g. literacy proficiency, ICT
competence, employment
Types of longitudinal cohort study
Birth cohort studies:
1946, 1958, 1970, 1992 Avon Longitudinal Survey
of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), 2000 Millennium Cohort (MCS) Study,
2005 Growing Up in Scotland (MCS), 2008 Growing Up In Ireland (GUI),
2010
French Birth cohort study (ELFE), 2012
German National
Educational Panel Study (NEPS),
2009 US National Children’s Study (NCS)
Age cohort studies:
2004
Longitudinal Study of Young People in England
(LSYPE), 2005 Growing Up in Scotland (GUS), 2008 Growing Up in Ireland
(GUI), 2012
German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS)
Sequential cohort studies:
Youth Cohort Study (YCS), Scottish School
Leavers Study (SLS), 2012
German National Educational Panel Study
(NEPS)
Martin, J. Bynner, J.
Kalton
, G. Boyle, P. Goldstein, H. Gayle, V. Parsons, S.
Piesse
(2006), A. Review of Panel and Cohort Studies
. Bynner, J.
Wadsworth, M Goldstein, H. Maughan, B. Purdon, S. Michael, R. (2007),
Scientifc
Case for a New Birth Cohort Study.
Bynner, J.
Wadsworth, M Goldstein, H. Maughan, B. Lessof, C. Michael, R. (2009)
Options for the design of the 2012 birth cohort study.
www.Longviewuk.com
/pages/
reportsnew.shtml
British Birth Cohort Studies
54 Year NSHD
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
British Birth Cohort Studies
7 Year NCDS
11 Year NCDS
23 Year NCDS
33 Year NCDS
42 Year NCDS
50 Year NCDS
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
37 Year NCDS
Child
Data
16 years NCDS
British Birth Cohort Studies
22 Months BCS70
42 Months BCS70
10 Years BCS70
21 Years BCS70S (sub sample)
30 Years BCS70
5 Years BCS70
26 Years BCS70
38 Years BCS70
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
16 Year BCS70
British Birth Cohort Studies
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
9 months
3 years
7 years
5 years
11 years
Age
The British Birth Cohort studies
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Child
Data
Age
Year
Child
Data
Bynner, J. & Joshi, H. (2007) ‘Building the Evidence Base from Longitudinal Data’.
Innovation
, 20, 159
-
179.
Theoretical perspective
Distal and Proximal ecological factors in child development
(
Bronfenbrenner
)
Interactional contexts
Structural factors
Life course trajectories (Elder, Heinz) shaped by :
Human agency
–
development of the individual
Linked
-
lives
–
social relations
Timing
–
age, period, cohort
Location in time and space
–
history and culture
Housing space
–
people per room
0
2
4
6
8
10
% > 2 per room
1946
1958
1970
2000
Parents/
carers
with degrees
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
% with
degrees -
1946
% with
degrees -
1958
% with
degrees -
1970
% with
degrees -
1990
% with
degrees -
2000
Mothers
Fathers
% experienced temporary suspension from school by
family social class
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1958
men
1970
men
1958
wom
1970
wom
I
II
IIINM
IIIM
IV
V
Ferri
, E. , Bynner, J. and
Wadsworth . M. (2003)
Changing
Britain Changing Lives .
IoE
press
Pre
-
school children’s relative chances of ‘low’ (bottom 20%)
Vocabulary scores by parents’
(age 34) functional literacy level ,
taking account of parents’ highest qualification and social class
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
EL2
EL3
Level 1
Level 2
pre-school
(* EL = Entry Level qualification)
Relative chances
*
Modeling the routes to adult statuses
Early resource accumulation
Transition resources
Adult statuses
Family background
Early influences
Leaving choices
Employment/Family
(Birth)
(Age 10/11)
(Age 16+)
Age 26
Rural
vs
urban area
Structural equation model of education pathways
to unemployment
Exogenous (x)
Endogenous (y)
Outcome
(y)
Before 10
10
-
11
16+
21/23
Mother left
education
Father left
education
Family social
class
Maths
Reading
Mother’s interest
Father’s interest
Overcrowding
Exams score
Literacy score
Numeracy score
Age left
education
Number of
jobs
Malaise
No work
-
based
training
Unemployment
16
-
21 / 16
-
23
1958 cohort boys: impact of family background
Before 10
11
Maths
Reading
Mother’s interest in
education
Father’s interest in
education
Overcrowding
Rented housing
Social class
.11
.19
.35
.43
-
.19
-
.50
1970 cohort boys: impact of family background
Before 10
10
Age mother left education
Age father left education
M
aths
Reading
Mother’s interest in
education
Father’s interest in
education
Overcrowding
Rented housing
Social class
.13
.08
-
.19
-
.15
.13
-
.14
.11
.08
.10
.11
1958 cohort boys: influences on school leaving
exam scores
11
16+
Maths
Reading
Overcrowding
Exams
sco
re
.46
.22
-
.06
1970 cohort boys: influences on school leaving
exam scores
10
16+
Maths
Reading
Rented housing
Father’s interest
Overcrowding
Exams
score
.30
.21
.10
-
.12
-
.15
Microsoft Office PowerPoint 2007.lnk
1958 cohort boys: influences on unemployment
16+
16
-
23
Exams score
Numeracy score
Number of jobs
Unemployment
16
-
23
-
.11
-
.12
.17
1970 cohort boys: influences on unemployment
16+
16
-
21
Exams score
Literacy score
Numeracy score
Number of jobs
Ma
laise
Social class
Unemployment
16
-
21
-
.16
-
.11
-
.10
.09
.10
-
.11
Trajectory
of disadvantage
Age
Disadvantage
Education outcome
Intervention
0
-
13
Unskilled family,
Overcrowded, rented home
Free school meals
Workless family
Lack of parental interest in
child’s education
Poor pre school cognitive
skills
Literacy and numeracy
development slow
Falling behind at school
Every
Child
Matters
Sure Start
14
-
22
Casual unskilled work
NEET
Poor literacy and numeracy
No qualifications
Leave school early
EMAs
Connexions
Extend education inside
and outside
School age 18 graduation
25+
Out of labour market/ early
parenthood (Women)
Unemployment/ delayed
partnership (Men)
No employer
-
based training
Prospects poor
Skills for Life
Provision matched to
situation and needs
Embedded curriculum,
0
-
13
Disadvantaged
circumstances
Cycle repeated
Break the cycle
Stage
-
based provision
Conclusions
1.
Collection and use of longitudinal data in accordance with the life
course perspective is increasingly
recognised
as a key tool for
science and policy
-
hence the widening investment in
longitudinal research resources across the world.
2.
Such multi
-
disciplinary enquiry enables identification of the key
features of changing social, economic, political and
environmental contexts impacting on child development and to
chart their long term effects.
3.
GIU’s potential value will be enhanced by the growing
comparative opportunities for identifying the key formative
influences on development to which policy can be directed
across the life course in Ireland.
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