Growing Up in Scotland - Growing Up in Ireland

Growing Up in Ireland
Conference

Professor John Bynner, Longview

7
th

December 2009, Dublin

Contents

1.
Why longitudinal data research

2.
Longitudinal studies: time and place

3.
The studies

4.
Context of social change

5.
Intergenerational continuity

6.
Changing life course process

7.
Trajectories of disadvantage and policy challenge

Value of longitudinal data


Predicting consequences of early experience and
circumstances
–

e.g. childhood disadvantage


Explaining outcomes
–

e.g. NEET


Estimating returns
–

e.g. to qualifications


Identifying factors that override predictions
–

e.g. “escape
from disadvantage”


Life course dynamics
–

e.g. literacy proficiency, ICT
competence, employment

Types of longitudinal cohort study


Birth cohort studies:
1946, 1958, 1970, 1992 Avon Longitudinal Survey
of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), 2000 Millennium Cohort (MCS) Study,


2005 Growing Up in Scotland (MCS), 2008 Growing Up In Ireland (GUI),
2010
French Birth cohort study (ELFE), 2012
German National
Educational Panel Study (NEPS),

2009 US National Children’s Study (NCS)


Age cohort studies:
2004

Longitudinal Study of Young People in England
(LSYPE), 2005 Growing Up in Scotland (GUS), 2008 Growing Up in Ireland
(GUI), 2012
German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS)



Sequential cohort studies:
Youth Cohort Study (YCS), Scottish School
Leavers Study (SLS), 2012
German National Educational Panel Study
(NEPS)


Martin, J. Bynner, J.
Kalton
, G. Boyle, P. Goldstein, H. Gayle, V. Parsons, S.
Piesse

(2006), A. Review of Panel and Cohort Studies
. Bynner, J.
Wadsworth, M Goldstein, H. Maughan, B. Purdon, S. Michael, R. (2007),
Scientifc

Case for a New Birth Cohort Study.
Bynner, J.
Wadsworth, M Goldstein, H. Maughan, B. Lessof, C. Michael, R. (2009)
Options for the design of the 2012 birth cohort study.

www.Longviewuk.com

/pages/
reportsnew.shtml

British Birth Cohort Studies

54 Year NSHD

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

British Birth Cohort Studies

7 Year NCDS

11 Year NCDS

23 Year NCDS

33 Year NCDS

42 Year NCDS

50 Year NCDS

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

37 Year NCDS

Child

Data

16 years NCDS

British Birth Cohort Studies

22 Months BCS70

42 Months BCS70

10 Years BCS70

21 Years BCS70S (sub sample)

30 Years BCS70

5 Years BCS70

26 Years BCS70

38 Years BCS70

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

16 Year BCS70

British Birth Cohort Studies

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

9 months

3 years

7 years

5 years

11 years

Age

The British Birth Cohort studies


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

Child

Data

Age

Year

Child

Data


Bynner, J. & Joshi, H. (2007) ‘Building the Evidence Base from Longitudinal Data’.
Innovation
, 20, 159
-
179.


Theoretical perspective

Distal and Proximal ecological factors in child development
(
Bronfenbrenner
)


Interactional contexts


Structural factors

Life course trajectories (Elder, Heinz) shaped by :


Human agency
–

development of the individual


Linked
-
lives
–

social relations


Timing
–

age, period, cohort


Location in time and space
–

history and culture

Housing space
–

people per room

0
2
4
6
8
10
% > 2 per room
1946
1958
1970
2000
Parents/
carers

with degrees

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
% with
degrees -
1946
% with
degrees -
1958
% with
degrees -
1970
% with
degrees -
1990
% with
degrees -
2000
Mothers
Fathers
% experienced temporary suspension from school by
family social class

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1958
men
1970
men
1958
wom
1970
wom
I
II
IIINM
IIIM
IV
V
Ferri
, E. , Bynner, J. and
Wadsworth . M. (2003)
Changing
Britain Changing Lives .
IoE

press

Pre
-
school children’s relative chances of ‘low’ (bottom 20%)
Vocabulary scores by parents’
(age 34) functional literacy level ,
taking account of parents’ highest qualification and social class

0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
2.2
2.4
2.6
2.8
3
3.2
3.4
3.6
3.8
4
EL2
EL3
Level 1
Level 2
pre-school
(* EL = Entry Level qualification)

Relative chances

*

Modeling the routes to adult statuses


Early resource accumulation

Transition resources


Adult statuses

Family background


Early influences

Leaving choices

Employment/Family












(Birth)



(Age 10/11)

(Age 16+)


Age 26

Rural
vs

urban area


Structural equation model of education pathways
to unemployment

Exogenous (x)

Endogenous (y)

Outcome

(y)

Before 10

10
-
11

16+

21/23





















Mother left
education

Father left
education

Family social
class

Maths

Reading

Mother’s interest

Father’s interest

Overcrowding

Exams score

Literacy score

Numeracy score

Age left
education

Number of
jobs

Malaise

No work
-
based
training

Unemployment

16
-
21 / 16
-
23



1958 cohort boys: impact of family background



Before 10


11


















Maths

Reading

Mother’s interest in
education

Father’s interest in
education

Overcrowding

Rented housing

Social class

.11

.19

.35

.43

-
.19

-
.50

1970 cohort boys: impact of family background



Before 10

10






















Age mother left education

Age father left education

M
aths

Reading

Mother’s interest in
education

Father’s interest in
education

Overcrowding

Rented housing

Social class

.13

.08

-
.19

-
.15

.13

-
.14

.11

.08

.10

.11

1958 cohort boys: influences on school leaving
exam scores


11






16+










Maths

Reading

Overcrowding

Exams

sco
re

.46

.22

-
.06

1970 cohort boys: influences on school leaving
exam scores



10






16+






































































Maths

Reading

Rented housing

Father’s interest

Overcrowding

Exams

score

.30

.21

.10

-
.12

-
.15

Microsoft Office PowerPoint 2007.lnk
1958 cohort boys: influences on unemployment


16+






16
-
23










































Exams score

Numeracy score

Number of jobs

Unemployment
16
-
23

-
.11

-
.12

.17

1970 cohort boys: influences on unemployment



16+






16
-
21

















































Exams score


Literacy score

Numeracy score

Number of jobs

Ma
laise


Social class

Unemployment
16
-
21

-
.16

-
.11

-
.10

.09

.10

-
.11

Trajectory

of disadvantage

Age

Disadvantage

Education outcome

Intervention

0
-
13

Unskilled family,
Overcrowded, rented home

Free school meals

Workless family

Lack of parental interest in
child’s education

Poor pre school cognitive
skills

Literacy and numeracy
development slow

Falling behind at school


Every
Child
Matters

Sure Start

14
-
22

Casual unskilled work

NEET

Poor literacy and numeracy

No qualifications

Leave school early


EMAs

Connexions

Extend education inside
and outside

School age 18 graduation

25+

Out of labour market/ early
parenthood (Women)

Unemployment/ delayed
partnership (Men)

No employer
-
based training

Prospects poor

Skills for Life

Provision matched to
situation and needs

Embedded curriculum,

0
-
13

Disadvantaged
circumstances

Cycle repeated

Break the cycle

Stage
-
based provision

Conclusions

1.
Collection and use of longitudinal data in accordance with the life
course perspective is increasingly
recognised

as a key tool for
science and policy
-

hence the widening investment in
longitudinal research resources across the world.

2.
Such multi
-
disciplinary enquiry enables identification of the key
features of changing social, economic, political and
environmental contexts impacting on child development and to
chart their long term effects.

3.
GIU’s potential value will be enhanced by the growing
comparative opportunities for identifying the key formative
influences on development to which policy can be directed
across the life course in Ireland.