WEST VIRGINIA POLITICAL OUTLOOK:

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Nov 29, 2013 (3 years and 9 months ago)

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WEST

VIRGINIA

POLITICAL OUTLOOK:
2012


TRENDS & TENDENCIES & IMPACT






Presentation
for West Virginia Oil & Natural Gas
Association

Dr. Robert Rupp

West Virginia Wesleyan College
rupp_r@wvwc.edu


WV ENERGY/ WV POLITICS





Concrete




Abstract


LIKE POLITICS, ENERGY IN WEST
VIRGINIA IS ALSO IN TRANSITION






ENERGY
REVOLUTION:EXTRACTION

ECONOMICS


Oil Boom






Coal Boom





Marcellus Shale Boom


Characteristics of WV Politics


3 Trends in WV Politics


3 Trends in Energy


Balance Sheet of Marcellus Shell




Benefits/Concerns


Conclusion
-

Intersection of Energy & Politics

WEST VIRGINIA
-

UNIQUE POLITICS



Everything in West Virginia is political, except

Politics which is
Personal



We are
a state
that takes its politics seriously and
practices it somewhat differently.


COMPARISON OF
WEST

VIRGINIA
&
LOUISIANA

Louisiana Questions

1
-
Who is your Mama?

2
-
Are you Catholic?

3
-
How do you fix your gumbo?





West Virginia Questions

1
-
Who is your Daddy?

2
-
Are you Methodist?

3
-

Food ???


WEST VIRGINIA IDENTITY


Not South
-

Carved out of a State




Have Statue of Lincoln


Not North


N
ot “Mid
-
Atlantic”
-

no natural lake

KEY: BASED ON

TOPOGRAPHY

NOT
GEOGRAPHY


Mountains
: Identity + Resources






Energy & Politics share 1 thing


Our industry is in historic Transition

3 STATEWIDE TRENDS

&

THEIR IMPACT ON POLITICS



1
-
Geography









2
-
Commerce






3
-
Partisanship

STATEWIDE TREND
-

#1


1. Changing GEOGRAPHIC/$
Center


------


Moving
North
and
East

Population
-
Past Decade






-
Kanawha

-

3.5%






-
Monongalia
+ 18
%/
Jefferson
+27%

Political Importance

The party
that recognizes this trend & acts in next
decade will control the state


Legislature does not reflect this trend


Southern counties = disproportionate power




STATEWIDE TREND
#2

2.
Changing
face of
Commerce


-
RETAIL

坈佌䕓䅌W


Political
Importance


-
Personal
contact

副Ro
-
捡汬c

慤a

The
party that recognizes this trend & acts in next
decade will control the state


STATEWIDE TREND
-

#3

2. Changing
PARTISAN
TREND


------


More
Republican


B
ut slowed by :


1) #’s = 2 to 1 Democrat registration



2) “Big Tent” of Democratic party



3) Ideology = West Virginia Schizophrenia




a. Reliance on Government
Program/New Deal



b. Suspicion of Government
-

Libertarian





-
Suspicious of
Obamacare

Status Quo
-
2012
PARTISAN

WV = Split
-
Level State

Charleston
-

Democrat

Washington
-

Republican






Presidential since 2000






Congress
-

Capito
-
2000/McKinley
-
2010






Senate
-

Rockefelle
*Manchin*


HOW THE 3
STATETRENDS

IMPACT
ON ENERGY



1
-
Geography









2
-
Commerce






3
-
Partisanship

STATEWIDE TREND
-

#
1

1.Changing GEOGRAPHIC/$
Center


------


Moving
North
and
East


Implications for ONG & Coal in
WV



STATEWIDE TREND
#2

2. Changing face of Commerce :



RETAIL


WHOLESALE



Home
Hardware

坡汭慲W



? ENERGY
-



䍯湳潬楤慴楯C



Local individual
--


䉩朠䍯浰慮楥B


Implications for ONG




STATEWIDE TREND
-

#3

3. Slow evolution in
PARTISAN
TREND


------


More
Republican


Implications for ONG



For Now: Must deal with Split
-
level






Uncertainty
-






State/National

BALANCE ????


The

Economic
P
romise
and



The
Environmental Concerns

BENEFITS FOR WEST VIRGINIA


BENEFITS FOR NATION


Reduce dependence on Middle East oil


Reduce green house gas emissions



BENEFITS FOR WEST Virginia


Creates Jobs


Creates Revenue


Creates potential for other industries:



Ethane
-
-


“Cracked” into
Ethylene.





MARCH 16.2012

Ethane cracker plant might come to
Institute



CHARLESTON
, W.Va.
--

South Charleston
-
based
Aither

Chemicals is expected to announce plans next week to build a
$300 million ethane catalytic "cracker" plant that would employ
up to 200 workers at the Institute Industrial Park by 2015,

CONCERNS OF WEST VIRGINIANS


The

Economic
P
romise
and



he
Environmental Concerns



The
economic promise
and
environmental questions
have
invited comparisons to West Virginia’s coal industry.


Mining has brought much
-
valued

jobs
and
revenues
to the
Mountain State, but its long history has also included incidents of
ruined
land
, poisoned
water
and mistreated
workers.






Fool me once shame on you,


Fool me twice, _________



2012 is not 1882




Knowledge is Different
-

i.e. Incomplete




Communication is Different




Players are Different
-
land owners,

environmentalists, government,
business,etc
.

CONCERNS


Landowners


Water


Roads


Worker

Horizontal Drilling

+/
-

3,000

4,000
ft

of horizontal drilling length


FOOTPRINT ON LAND:



Landowner rights


? Mineral rights/surface rights



Watch Test
case
-
Wheeling


Landowner Land


KEY: Selective
Impact
--


Localized



Regulation
-
Buffer



Landowner’s Neighbor
-



Notification



FOOTPRINT ON WATER



Not new
-

1940
2000
-
take off




Product is safe





-

99.51% water
Amount of it






-
Chemicals in kitchen
Amount & Control





Record
-

never, none
Little research




-

Lisa Jackson quote


May 2, 2012


Drilling chemicals
could
move quickly to aquifers, study says



CHARLESTON
, W.Va.
--

Chemicals injected into the ground by natural gas
drillers could migrate toward drinking water supplies much more quickly than
previously thought, according to a new study that raises questions about
West Virginia's ongoing Marcellus Shale boom.



Industry
officials argue that fracking chemicals cannot possibly pollute
drinking water, because fracking occurs far below aquifers used for wells and
chemicals would take far too long to ever possibly migrate through thick
layers of rock.


The new study by Myers is the first scientific paper to strongly
question
that thesis.

FOOTPRINT ON ROADS


Marshall
County Sheriff told U.S. Senate
committee
:
"We were never prepared for the
onslaught of heavy trucks that would
monopolize our roads, damage our property,
and destroy our roads.”


"
The drivers are not from here so
they do not
care what happens as a result of their reckless
operations.“


Versus
: Chesapeake plans to spend another
$93 million this year


WORKER
S


Rockefeller pressed Randy Albert, chief operating officer for
CONSOL Energy's gas operations, about why the industry doesn't
improve trucking safety
by hiring more West Virginia drivers
who know the local roads
.


Albert said that CONSOL tries to employ West Virginians, but
added, "I can't mandate to my subcontractors that they hire
West Virginians."


Rockefeller shot back, "You know,
I think you can. And I think
most of them aren't West Virginians.
I would think that you
probably could do that."


CONCLUSION


Understand 3 Things

about Energy in West Virginia and
its relation with Politics



1
-
Revolutionary
Dimension




Historic Time




2
-
Dynamic
Tension
-





Jobs
v. Environment




Cost
of
v. Need
for regulation



3
-

Political
Intersection




Government= Arena





Your Voices heard


WEST

VIRGINIA

POLITICAL OUTLOOK:
2012


TRENDS & TENDENCIES & IMPACT






Presentation
for West Virginia Oil & Natural Gas
Association

Dr. Robert Rupp

West Virginia Wesleyan College
rupp_r@wvwc.edu