Presented by

frizzflowerUrban and Civil

Nov 29, 2013 (3 years and 8 months ago)

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Presented by:

Ekaterina Kozlova,
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University)

Elliott Cheresh,
Johns Hopkins University


Anton Natarov,
Moscow State Institute of International Relations (University)

Darya Makarenko,
The University of Alabama

~70,000 killed


2.5
-
3 million
internally
displaced


~1.2 million
refugees


March 2011
-

present

The Crisis Within the Syrian Borders

Supreme Kurdish
Committee (SKC)

Kurdish
National
Council

Kurdish

Democratic
Union

Party

Ebril Declaration

-
Internally divided

-
Lacks genuine ground
presence

-
Detached from Kurdish
youth

-
Internally cohesive

-
Has an established
presence

-
Rejects any type of foreign
intervention

National Coalition for
Syrian and Opposition
Forces

SNC

FSA

Al
-
Nusra

Front

Other
Opposition
Groups

-
Requests support
without military
intervention

-
Has clear plan for
role in transition

-
Tension with FSA

-
Inclusive militia of
SA deserters

-
Sees itself as
secular protector
of Syria

-
Alleged Al
-
Qaeda
links

-
Strong community
outreach

-
Co
-
opting
infrastructure to
fund operations

GDP
growth

3.2
% in
2010

-
3
% in
2012

Investment

$
14
bn in
2010

$
10
bn in
2012

Unemployment

8.3
% in
2010

13.4
% in
2012

Inflation

30
% in
2012

4.8
% in
2010

Syria and US
-
Russian Relations

Sunni Extremists

Chechen Fighters

Insecurity

-
Insurgency in the North Caucuses

-
Sunni Public Opinion



A strong stance is hard to convert into
concrete influence


Neutral

Stance

Recent Shift

Support for

Assad

-
Lack of secular replacement for Assad

-
Low legitimacy of opposition

-
Security Council Stalemate



Alternatives:


Tactical changes,
strategic continuity

Key but “distant” players

Policy Proposals