Is Migration Good for

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Nov 12, 2013 (3 years and 9 months ago)

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Is Migration Good for
Development?

How Could You Even Ask?

Lant Pritchett

Harvard Kennedy School

Presentation at

Columbia University

Feb. 13, 2009

Is Migration Good for
Development?


Ideas and their evolution: Marx and Foucault


Spatial Based versus People Based thinking

why does dirt matter in theories of justice?


The movement of people leads to development
gains
orders of magnitude
larger than anything
else on the agenda


For
some

places mobility may be the
only
development agenda


Ideas and their evolution: Crazy, Crazy, Crazy,
Obvious

The world that was lost in 1914

He could secure forthwith, if he wished it, cheap and
comfortable means of transit to any country or climate
without passport or other formality
, could dispatch his
servant to the neighboring office of a bank for such
supply of the precious metals as might seem convenient,
and could then proceed abroad to foreign quarters,
without knowledge of their religion, language, or
customs, bearing coined wealth upon his person, and
would consider himself greatly aggrieved and much
surprised at the least interference.


JM Keynes

Second Globalization as Farce

Hegel remarks somewhere that all great world
-
historic facts and personages appear, so to
speak, twice. He forgot to add: the first time as
tragedy, the second time as farce. …Men make
their own history, but they do not make it as they
please; they do not make it under self
-
selected
circumstances, but under circumstances existing
already, given and transmitted from the past.
The tradition of all dead generations weighs like
a nightmare on the brains of the living.



Karl Marx, remarks somewhere

Deconstruction, the most powerful
idea of your time…



There is no “reason” or “discourse” or “truth” there is just
power


Power socially constructs reality such that the agenda is
deeply controlled without explicit repressions

its
“common sense”


“Deconstruction” is the subversion of the socially
constructions of established discourse


So, where do we look for overwhelming power? Not to
controversy but for silence…what opposes the truly
powerful is not controversial but just plain crazy

…has yet to tackle nationalism the
most powerful idea of my time…



God is dead


All “..isms” are mortally wounded (e.g.
racism, sexism, sexualism)


“Truth” and “Reason” have retreated into
scare quotes

And the “imagined communities” that are
“nations” are all that is left

Estimated wage gains to low skill workers of
crossing the US border

on average (from
42 countries), conservatively, P$10,000

0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Haiti
Ghana
Indonesia
Bangladesh
Guatemala
Annual eanrings (in PPP)
In home
In USA
Wages of “same” workers

$10,000 to $15,000 (in PPP)

By crossing the border



Place based versus People based
thinking


A person moves from Peru to the US, his/her
income increases by $10,000.


Suppose no one else is affected.


Assume they make
above average
wages in
Peru and
below average
wages in the USA.


The traditional, “national” place based measures
(e.g. GDP per capita, average wages) of
“development” go
down

in both places

Output per
natural
(or wages per
natural or poverty per natural) is the
more natural way to think


If person
moves from
rural to urban
the wage gain
counts, of the
person moves
from state to
state the wage
gain counts

the natural
global measure
of development
has to count
the movers
somewhere.


0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
Jamaica--GDP per capita
Guyana--GDP per capita
Paraguay--GDP per capita
Jamaica--income per nat...
Brazil--GDP per capita
Guyana--income per natural
Income per person (resident or natural)
Guyana

Guyanese

Jamaica

Jamai
cans

Labor Mobility is bigger than
anything else on the agenda



The gain from a
lifetime
of microcredit is the same
as 8 weeks working in the
USA


Total annual gain to
Grameen Bank borrowers
(around) $30 million


If I get 3,000 Bangladeshi
workers into the US, do I
get a Nobel Peace Prize?

0.0
2000.0
4000.0
6000.0
8000.0
10000.0
12000.0
14000.0
Annual gain,
micro-credit
Monthly gain,
migration
Net present
Value, lifetime
of micro-credit
Annual gain,
migration
PPP $
Debt Relief…


Total foregone payments due
to HIPC debt relief in Africa

about 2.5 billion (in 2005)



About 150,000 Africans to the
US
--
.1 percent of the labor
force, about 1 percent of
monthly gross job growth,
about one (good) months net
job growth



If a labor mobility activist
accomplishes that do they get
to sing at the Super Bowl?


[Picture of Bono here]

From the top of the cliff at the borders
that faces labor you cannot see the
gains from goods or capital

65000
65
109
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
Complete liberalization
labor mobility
Complete equalizatoin
MPK
Complete liberalization
of goods markets, to
developing countries
Welfare gains, in billions $
Stand the question on its head…

Not “Is Migration Good for Development?”
but, since labor mobility is so good for
proper, people based, measures of
development why is there so much talk
about things that have gains that are so
much smaller?

(Hint: It has something to do with power)

But it is worse…


The myth of the current international
system, the world created to “win the
peace” after WWII

the “Pax Americana”
is:


The world can be divided up spatially into
arbitrary bits


Each of those bits can achieve an adequate
standard of living

Adair
Adams
Allamakee
Appanoose
Audobon
Benton
Black
Hawk
Boone
Bremer
Buchanan
Buena
Vista
Butler
Calhoun
Carroll
Cass
Cedar
Cerro
Gordo
Cherokee
Chickasaw
Clarke
Clay
Clayton
Clinton
Crawford
Dallas
Davis
Decatur
Delaware
Des
Moines
Dickinson
Dubuque
Emmet
Fayette
Floyd
Franklin
Fremont
Greene
Grundy
Guthrie
Hamilton
Hancock
Hardin
Harrison
Henry
Howard
Humboldt
Ida
Iowa
Jackson
Jasper
Jefferson
Johnson
Jones
Keokuk
Kossuth
Lee
Linn
Louisa
Lucas
Lyon
Madison
Mahaska
Marion
Marshall
Mills
Mitchell
Monona
Monroe
Montgomery
Muscatine
OÕBrien
Osceola
Page
Palo
Alto
Plymouth
Pocahontas
Polk
Pottawattamie
Poweshiek
Ringgold
Sac
Scott
Shelby
Sioux
Story
Tama
Taylor
Union
Van
Buren
Wapello
Warren
Washington
Wayne
Webster
Winnebago
Winneshiek
Woodbury
Worth
Wright
Adair
Andrew
Atchison
Audrain
Barry
Barton
Bates
Benton
Bollinger
Boone
Buchanan
Butler
Caldwell
Callaway
Camden
Cape
Girardeau
Carroll
Carter
Cass
Cedar
Chariton
Christian
Clark
Clay
Clinton
Cole
Cooper
Crawford
Dade
Dallas
Daviess
De
Kalb
Dent
Douglas
Dunklin
Franklin
Gasconade
Gentry
Greene
Grundy
Harrison
Henry
Hickory
Holt
Howard
Howell
Iron
Jackson
Jasper
Jefferson
Johnson
Knox
Laclede
Lafayette
Lawrence
Lewis
Lincoln
Linn
Livingston
McDonald
Macon
Madison
Maries
Marion
Mercer
Miller
Mississippi
Moniteau
Monroe
Montgomery
Morgan
New Madrid
Newton
Nodaway
Oregon
Osage
Ozark
Pemiscot
Perry
Pettis
Phelps
Pike
Platte
Polk
Pulaski
Putnam
Ralls
Randolph
Ray
Reynolds
Ripley
St. Charles
St.
Clair
Ste
.
Genevieve
St.
Francois
St. Louis
Saline
Schuyler
Scotland
Scott
Shannon
Shelby
Stoddard
Stone
Sullivan
Taney
Texas
Vernon
Warren
Washington
Wayne
Webster
Worth
Wright
St. Louis
City
Adams
Antelope
Arthur
Banner
Blaine
Boone
Box Butte
Boyd
Brown
Buffalo
Burt
Butler
Cass
Cedar
Chase
Cherry
Cheyenne
Clay
Colfax
Cuming
Custer
Dakota
Dawes
Dawson
Deuel
Dixon
Dodge
Douglas
Dundy
Fillmore
Franklin
Frontier
Furnas
Gage
Garden
Garfield
Gosper
Grant
Greeley
Hall
Hamilton
Harlan
Hayes
Hitchcock
Holt
Hooker
Howard
Jefferson
Johnson
Kearney
Keith
Keya
Paha
Kimball
Knox
Lancaster
Lincoln
Logan
Loup
McPherson
Madison
Merrick
Morrill
Nance
Nemaha
Nuckolls
Otoe
Pawnee
Perkins
Phelps
Pierce
Platte
Polk
Red Willow
Richardson
Rock
Saline
Sarpy
Saunders
Scotts
Bluff
Seward
Sheridan
Sherman
Sioux
Stanton
Thayer
Thomas
Thurston
Valley
Washington
Wayne
Webster
Wheeler
York
Allen
Anderson
Atchison
Barber
Barton
Bourbon
Brown
Butler
Chase
Chautauqua
Cherokee
Cheyenne
Clark
Clay
Cloud
Coffey
Comanche
Cowley
Crawford
Decatur
Dickinson
Doniphan
Douglas
Edwards
Elk
Ellis
Ellsworth
Finney
Ford
Franklin
Geary
Gove
Graham
Grant
Gray
Greeley
Greenwood
Hamilton
Harper
Harvey
Haskell
Hodgeman
Jackson
Jefferson
Jewell
Johnson
Kearny
Kingman
Kiowa
Labette
Lane
Leavenworth
Lincoln
Linn
Logan
Lyon
Marion
Marshall
McPherson
Meade
Miami
Mitchell
Montgomery
Morris
Morton
Nemaha
Neosho
Ness
Norton
Osage
Osborne
Ottawa
Pawnee
Phillips
Pottawatomie
Pratt
Rawlins
Reno
Republic
Rice
Riley
Rooks
Rush
Russell
Saline
Scott
Sedgwick
Seward
Shawnee
Sheridan
Sherman
Smith
Stafford
Stanton
Stevens
Sumner
Thomas
Trego
Wabaunsee
Wallace
Washington
Wichita
Wilson
Woodson
Wyandotte
Aurora
Beadle
Bennett
Bon
Homme
Brookings
Brown
Brule
Buffalo
Butte
Campbell
Charles Mix
Clark
Clay
Codington
Corson
Custer
Davison
Day
Deuel
Dewey
Douglas
Edmunds
Fall River
Faulk
Grant
Gregory
Haakon
Hamlin
Hand
Hanson
Harding
Hughes
Hutchinson
Hyde
Jerauld
Jones
Kingsbury
Lake
Lawrence
Lincoln
Lyman
McCook
McPherson
Marshall
Meade
Mellette
Miner
Minnehaha
Moody
Pennington
Perkins
Potter
Roberts
Sanborn
Shannon
Spink
Stanley
Sully
Todd
Tripp
Turner
Union
Walworth
Yankton
Jackson
Ziebach
Adams
Barnes
Benson
Billings
Bottineau
Bowman
Burke
Burleigh
Cass
Cavalier
Dickey
Divide
Dunn
Eddy
Emmons
Foster
Golden
Valley
Grand
Forks
Grant
Griggs
Hettinger
Kidder
La
Moure
Logan
McHenry
McIntosh
McKenzie
McLean
Mercer
Morton
Mountrail
Nelson
Oliver
Pembina
Pierce
Ramsey
Ransom
Renville
Richland
Rolette
Sargent
Sheridan
Sioux
Slope
Stark
Steele
Stutsman
Towner
Traill
Walsh
Ward
Wells
Williams
Woodward
Adair
Alfalfa
Atoka
Beaver
Beckham
Blaine
Bryan
Caddo
Canadian
Carter
Cherokee
Choctaw
Cimarron
Cleveland
Coal
Comanche
Cotton
Craig
Creek
Custer
Delaware
Dewey
Ellis
Garfield
Garvin
Grady
Grant
Greer
Harmon
Harper
Haskell
Hughes
Jackson
Jefferson
Johnston
Kay
Kingfisher
Kiowa
Latimer
Le
Flore
Lincoln
Logan
Love
McClain
McCurtain
MacIntosh
Major
Marshall
Mayes
Murray
Muskogee
Noble
Nowata
Okfuskee
Oklahoma
Okmulgee
Osage
Ottawa
Pawnee
Payne
Pittsburg
Pontotoc
Pottawatomie
Pushmataha
Roger Mills
Rogers
Seminole
Sequoyah
Stephens
Texas
Tillman
Tulsa
Wagoner
Washington
Washita
Woods
Arkansas
Ashley
Baxter
Benton
Boone
Bradley
Calhoun
Carroll
Chicot
Clark
Clay
Cleburne
Cleveland
Columbia
Conway
Craighead
Crawford
Crittenden
Cross
Dallas
Desha
Drew
Faulkner
Franklin
Fulton
Garland
Grant
Greene
Hempstead
Hot Spring
Howard
Independence
Izard
Jackson
Jefferson
Johnson
Lafayette
Lawrence
Lee
Lincoln
Little River
Logan
Lonoke
Madison
Marion
Miller
Mississippi
Monroe
Montgomery
Nevada
Newton
Ouachita
Perry
Phillips
Pike
Poinsett
Polk
Pope
Prairie
Pulaski
Randolph
St. Francis
Saline
Scott
Searcy
Sebastian
Sevier
Sharp
Stone
Union
Van
Buren
Washington
White
Woodruff
Yell
Adams
Alcorn
Amite
Attala
Benton
Bolivar
Calhoun
Carroll
Chickasaw
Choctaw
Claiborne
Clarke
Clay
Coahoma
Copiah
Covington
De
Soto
Forrest
Franklin
George
Greene
Grenada
Hancock
Harrison
Hinds
Holmes
Humphreys
Issaquena
Itawamba
Jackson
Jasper
Jefferson
Davis
Jones
Kemper
Lafayette
Lamar
Lauderdale
Lawrence
Leake
Lee
Leflore
Lincoln
Lowndes
Madison
Marion
Marshall
Monroe
Montgomery
Neshoba
Newton
Noxubee
Oktibbeha
Panola
Pearl River
Perry
Pike
Pontotoc
Prentiss
Quitman
Rankin
Scott
Sharkey
Simpson
Smith
Stone
Sunflower
Tallahatchie
Tate
Tippah
Tishomingo
Tunica
Union
Walthall
Warren
Washington
Wayne
Webster
Wilkinson
Winston
Yalobusha
Yazoo
Jefferson
Autauga
Baldwin
Barbour
Bibb
Blount
Bullock
Butler
Calhoun
Chambers
Cherokee
Chilton
Choctaw
Clarke
Clay
Cleburne
Coffee
Colbert
Conecuh
Coosa
Covington
Crenshaw
Cullman
Dale
Dallas
De
Kalb
Elmore
Escambia
Etowah
Fayette
Franklin
Geneva
Greene
Hale
Henry
Houston
Jackson
Jefferson
Lamar
Lauderdale
Lawrence
Lee
Limestone
Lowndes
Macon
Madison
Marengo
Marion
Marshall
Mobile
Monroe
Montgomery
Morgan
Perry
Pickens
Pike
Randolph
Russell
St.
Clair
Shelby
Sumter
Talladega
Tallapoosa
Tuscaloosa
Walker
Washington
Wilcox
Winston
St. Martin
St. Martin
Acadia
Allen
Ascension
Assumption
Avoyelles
Beauregard
Bienville
Bossier
Caddo
Calcasieu
Caldwell
Cameron
Catahoula
Claiborne
Concordia
De
Soto
East
Baton
Rouge
East
Carroll
East
Feliciana
Evangeline
Franklin
Grant
Iberia
Iberville
Jackson
Jefferson
Jefferson
Davis
Lafayette
Lafourche
La
Salle
Lincoln
Livingston
Madison
Morehouse
Natchitoches
Orleans
Ouachita
Plaquemines
Pointe
Coupee
Rapides
Red
River
Richland
Sabine
St. Bernard
St. Charles
St.
Helena
St. James
St. John
the Baptist
St.
Landry
St. Mary
St.
Tammany
Tangipahoa
Tensas
Terrebonne
Union
Vermilion
Vernon
Washington
Webster
West
Baton
Rouge
West
Carroll
West
Feliciana
Winn
Anderson
Andrews
Angel i na
Aransas
Archer
Armstrong
Atascosa
Austi n
Bai l ey
Bandera
Bastrop
Bayl or
Bee
Bel l
Bexar
Bl anco
Borden
Bosque
Bowi e
Brazori a
Brazos
Brewster
Bri scoe
Brooks
Brown
Burl eson
Burnet
Cal dwel l
Cal houn
Cal l ahan
Cameron
Camp
Carson
Cass
Castro
Chambers
Cherokee
Chi l dress
Cl ay
Cochran
Coke
Col eman
Col l i n
Col l i ngsworth
Col orado
Comal
Comanche
Concho
Cooke
Coryel l
Cottle
Crane
Crockett
Crosby
Cul berson
Dal l am
Dal l as
Dawson
Deaf Smi th
Del ta
Denton
De Wi tt
Di ckens
Di mmi t
Donl ey
Duval
Eastl and
Ector
Edwards
El l i s
El Paso
Erath
Fal l s
Fanni n
Fayette
Fi sher
Fl oyd
Foard
Fort Bend
Frankl i n
Freestone
Fri o
Gai nes
Gal veston
Gal veston
Garza
Gi l l espi e
Gl asscock
Gol i ad
Gonzal es
Gray
Grayson
Gregg
Gri mes
Guadal upe
Hal e
Hal l
Hami l ton
Hansford
Hardeman
Hardi n
Harri s
Harri son
Hartl ey
Haskel l
Hays
Hemphi l l
Henderson
Hi dal go
Hi l l
Hockl ey
Hood
Hopki ns
Houston
Howard
Hudspeth
Hunt
Hutchi nson
Iri on
Jack
Jackson
Jasper
Jeff Davi s
Jefferson
Ji m Hogg
Ji m
Wel l s
Johnson
Jones
Karnes
Kaufman
Kendal l
Kenedy
Kent
Kerr
Ki mbl e
Ki ng
Ki nney
Kl eberg
Knox
Lamar
Lamb
Lampasas
La Sal l e
Lavaca
Lee
Leon
Li berty
Li mestone
Li pscomb
Li ve Oak
Ll ano
Lovi ng
Lubbock
Lynn
McCul l och
McLennan
McMul l en
Madi son
Mari on
Marti n
Mason
Matagorda
Maveri ck
Medi na
Menard
Mi dl and
Mi l am
Mi l l s
Mi tchel l
Montague
Montgomery
Moore
Morri s
Motley
Nacogdoches
Navarro
Newton
Nol an
Nueces
Ochi l tree
Ol dham
Orange
Pal o Pi nto
Panol a
Parker
Parmer
Pecos
Pol k
Potter
Presi di o
Rai ns
Randal l
Reagan
Real
Red Ri ver
Reeves
Refugi o
Roberts
Robertson
Rockwal l
Runnel s
Rusk
Sabi ne
San
Augusti ne
San
Jaci nto
San Patri ci o
San Saba
Schl ei cher
Scurry
Shackl eford
Shel by
Sherman
Smi th
Somervel l
Starr
Stephens
Sterl i ng
Stonewal l
Sutton
Swi sher
Tarrant
Tayl or
Terrel l
Terry
Throckmorton
Ti tus
Tom
Green
Travi s
Tri ni ty
Tyl er
Upshur
Upton
Uval de
Val Verde
Van
Zandt
Vi ctori a
Wal ker
Wal l er
Ward
Washi ngton
Webb
Wharton
Wheel er
Wi chi ta
Wi l barger
Wi l l acy
Wi l l i amson
Wi l son
Wi nkl er
Wi se
Wood
Yoakum
Young
Zapata
Zaval a
Red=County Declined; Net Decline between 0 and 5,000
Purple=County Declined; Net Decline between 5,000 and 10,000
Blue=County Declined; Net Decline greater than 10,000
Green=County Increased by more than 10,000




Experiments been
run

its called the
USA

Same institutions,

Same Policies,

Free labor mobility

What happened?


People got out of
Dodge

Contiguous regions of the USA are a
third their counter
-
factual size

Region of the
United States

(contiguous
counties)

% change
in
populatio
n 1930
-
1990

Ratio of
current
population

to counter
factual at
rate of
natural
increase

Number of
countries (of 192)
with smaller area

(with examples)

Ratio of area per
capita income to
national average

Texlahoma

-
36.8%

0.31

117/192

(Nicaragua,

Bangladesh)

92.2%

Heartland

-
34.0%

0.33

117/192

85.2%

Deep South

-
27.9%

0.36

96/192

(Jordan, Austria, Sri
Lanka)

62.6%

There is no theory or evidence to
rule out the possibility of Ghost
countries


Persistent negative shocks to labor
demand
--
the “supportable population” at
any level of population


If labor is mobile you get “ghosts”

declining populations (e.g. rural midwest)


If labor is
not
mobile you get “zombies”

populations trapped in a spiral of declining
wages (e.g. Zambia?)

Back to ideas



Pax Romana

spatial integration (or sorts)



Pax Britannica

full globalization (of
sorts)

labor, capital, goods



Pax Americana

just goods and capital

“Globalization” of the Pax Romana

Not a single Roman emperor after 100
A.D. was born in Italy

Weekly food for a family in
Bargteheide, Germany, $525 per
person/month

Source: Hungry Planet

Weekly food for a family in Tingo
Ecuador, $14.72 per person per
month

Source: Hungry Planet

Food for a family in Chad, 86
cents
per person per month

Source: Hungry Planet

Attitudes towards Interracial Marriage in the US

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Year

Percentage of Population

Percentage of Population

Approving

Shift in ideas, silly, controversial,
progressive, then obvious

1992

LA riots spurred by
tape of Rodney
King beating

1963

MLK’s March
on
Washington

Barack Obama
runs for President
of the United
States

MLK assassinated

33% increase in
approval over 4 years

Crazy, crazy, crazy…hero