INUP_OpsManage11 Upstream Overview v0 - Invensys OpsManage ...

forestsaintregisOil and Offshore

Nov 8, 2013 (3 years and 11 months ago)

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Slide
2

Upstream Oil & Gas:

An Overview of the Industry

Session ID: INUP


John M Gilmore Jr.

Director, Upstream Oil & Gas

Global Industry Solutions

Invensys Operations Management

Slide
4

A Tumultuous Year

An Uncertain Future


Some Definitions


Long Term Trends


World & North America


Key Recent Events


What comes next?

Opinions expressed are
strictly my own
and do not
necessarily represent
Invensys opinion or policy

Slide
5

IPS
Confidenti
al

Processing

Production

Upstream Oil & Gas

Platform

Gas Distribution

Well

Refining/
Petrochemical

FPSO

GTL

LNG

GOSP

Regas

Gas
Processing

CTL & Tar
Sands

Pipelines

Slide
6

Long
-
Term Energy Demand


Significant Decrease over
2008
-
09


Fossil Fuels growth returning
to historical trend


Coal & Renewables grow as
Oil & Gas prices rise


$133/bbl by 2035 (2008$$)

EIA 2010

Slide
7

Major Demand Growth

In the
Long Term


Non
-
OECD country growth
dominates

In the
Short Term


China & India have returned to
historic growth


Europe growing slowly


USA lagging


Somewhat less transportation demand


Much less manufacturing demand

EIA 2010

Slide
8

Petroleum Liquids Growth

Total Liquids growth


86 million BBL/day in 2007


110 million BBL/day in 2035

Unconventional sources


3.4 million BBL/day in 2007


12.9 million BBL/day (12%) in 2035


Major growth from


Canada Oil Sands


US/Brazil biofuels

EIA 2010

Slide
9

Natural Gas is Booming!

World growth by 44%


108 Tcf in 2007


156 Tcf in 2035

LNG grows by 240%


8 Tcf in 2007


19 Tcf in 2035

Major uses


Industrial 39%


Electricity 36%

EIA 2010

Slide
10

Unconventional Gas

US boom in Unconventional Gas


Shale gas up from 6% to 24% of
production over 2008
-

2035


Shale gas now 50% of US reserves

World potential


Major investments in US
Unconventional Gas producers


Major projects underway


Australia, India, China, Eastern Europe

Risk


Fracking Regulation

EIA 2010

From non
-
sandstone formations
like shale, coal beds & carbonates

=

45% of world reserves are
“Unconventional Gas”
--

IEA

Slide
11

Macondo Well Blowout

Severe Consequences


12 deaths/8 severe injuries


~4.9 Million BBl discharged


Economic chaos


In Perspective


Total
spill <6% of daily production


Half
the Lakeview Gusher (CA)


<
3% of Kuwaiti
sabotage

Long
-
Term
Effects??


Gulf
drilling ban “lifted”


Tighter
restrictions/costs?


Slide
12

A Recent Non
-
Event: Cap & Trade

A bill to reduce carbon emission
by trading carbon credits


Companies trade credits to stay

in
business

In the
Short Term


Major “tax” on energy use


Favors renewables, natural gas


Punishes coal
-
derived energy

In the
Long Term


Government cuts available credits


Significant economic dislocations


Washington Post

Slide
13

3G* Messages

Energy Prices will rise


If US economy continues weak, $ inflation and world growth
will drive higher $
-
priced energy


If US economy strengthens, demand will drive higher prices.

Upstream Industry is
extraordinarily
dependent
on
Regulatory Actions


Offshore drilling regulation, leasing activity


Unconventional gas and fracking regulation


“Cap & Trade” and other carbon control schemes

* 3G = Gilmore’s Gutsy Guesses

Slide
14

Some light reading…

Slide
15

Looking Forward

“In the
Long Run,
we are all
Dead!”



John Maynard Keynes