3.1 Subscriber and network deployment information

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Dec 12, 2013 (3 years and 6 months ago)

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Contact:

Li Yanbin

Huawei Technologies


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ASIA
-
PACIFIC TELECOMMUNITY



The 12
th

Meeting of the APT Wireless Group (AWG
-
12)

Document

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ㄳ⁁灲楬′〱

Xiamen, People’s Republic of China


㄰⁁灲楬′〱



REVISION OF

WORKING DOCUMENT ON


SURVEY OF TREND AND FORECAST ON MOBILE
COMMUNICATIONS IN APT COUNTRIES



by


C
hina

People

s Republic of



3.

Recent trend of m
obile
c
ommunications in APT Countries

3.1

Subscriber and network deployment information

China
,

People’s Republic of

At present, there are several kinds of mobile communication networks, such as GSM/GPRS
network, CDM
A2000 network, WCDMA network, TD
-
SCDMA network, and so on.

The
subscriber and network deployment information for these networks is as follows:


Network

Subscriber and network deployment information

GSM



B
y the end of 2010, more than 500 thousands base stat
ions

ha
ve

been
already built.

By
the end of 2011, GSM subscribers increase 41.31
million, and the total subscribers amount to 757.96 million

in
China
.

TD
-
SCMDA



I
n the past few years, the TD
-
SCDMA network has already
provided services in all the cities
in China.



By the end of 2010, the number of base stations has
reached to more than 210 thousands.



B
y the end of 2011, the new
subscribers

amounted

to
30.5million,
the total amount of 3G
subscribers

is up to
51.21million, which

account
s

for 40 percent of 3
G market
share in China.

CDMA2000



T
he 3G service started in April 2009.



By the end of 2009, 3G data user number is just over 4
million.

By the end of 2010, the number of user
s

of
CDMA2000 network is over 12 million.


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By the

end of 2011,

there are

up to
24m
illion

new
subscribers and the total amount of
CDMA

users is
36.29million. CDMA
2000, EVDO

subscribers account for
29 percent of 3G market


WCDMA



T
he network
has been build
since 2008 and began to
provide the communication services from year 2009.



The
num
ber of
user
s

reached 274 thousand at the end of
year 2009 and 14,
0
6
0

thousand at the end of year 2010.



B
y the end of 2011,

with the new
subscription

up to

25.95million,
the 3G
subscribers

are totalled 40.01million
.
The WCDMA users are occupying 3
1 percent

of
3G
market share.



I
n summary, by the end of2011, the new 3G
subscribers

amount
ed

to 8
9.55
million, and the 3G
registered users
totalled

12
8
million. The 3G penetration rate is
over

13 percent, in
the
total
amount of 9
86
million mobile
users.


The numb
er of subscribers at the end of January accounted for 73.6% of the country's population
(user density).

3.2

Traffic information

China
,

People’s Republic of

The traffic information in China is as follows
:


Network

Traffic information

GSM



The voice traffic
volume from 2008 to 2010 has grown
totally 50% percent. However, from 2009 to 2010, the
voice traffic volume has grown less than 10%. The speed
of growth is slower than the year before.



In the aspect of data traffic, in 2010, more than 60% data
traffic vol
ume of overall data flow is provided by
GSM/GPRS network, which is estimated about 300 TB per
month. It has been an explosive growth to the past years.

The voice applications

by

CMCC

keep ongoing in 2011,
with 12
.3 percent
growth rate
compared with that of

last

year
;
the data applications increase 1
5.4 percent

TD
-
SCMDA



From May 2009 to June 2010, the traffic volum
e

has
grown 13 times, and
its

data flow has increased to 30% of
overall data flow of China Mobile.

CDMA2000



In Dec. of 2010, monthly flow rate i
s increased 72% than
1
st

half of 2010, user monthly average flow rate has
reached 300MB.


WCDMA



.
The
overall

mobile data traffic of 2011 increased 293.4
%,


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compared with

2010.



In 2010, the average data usage per 3G
subscriber per

month was 178million, an
d

increased to 267million in
2011.

Influenced by the stiff competition of voice services and the mobile internet applications
replacement etc, the GSM
voice

applications
are
shrinking
; the data applications turn on fast
increase, benefited from the
mobile

internet
users
.


4.

Forecast
of mobile communications in APT Countries

4
.1

Traffic

forecast

China
,

People’s Republic of


Network

Forecast on traffic aspects

GSM


TD
-
SCDMA



The conventional voice traffic volume still increases now but the
growth rate is dec
lining partly because of the impact of data
traffic and VoIP services. However, through the analysis of recent
network operating status, the overall conventional voice traffic
will maintain a growing trend, and as the increasing of users of
mobile services

and the decreasing of charges, that growth will
continue into at least 2015.



Usage of mobile data services has started to increase
significantly, driven by the rapid take
-
up of smart
-
phones and the
construction of 3G networks. However, there is still an i
ncreasing
risk that data traffic will be limited by the capacity of current
GPRS/TD
-
SCDMA networks. The solutions are expansion of
current networks and new technologies (such as LTE
\
LTE
-
Advanced).



The evolution direction of GPRS/TD
-
SCDMA network is TD
-
LTE
. In the future, most of data traffic volume will be carried by
TD
-
LTE/TD
-
LTE
-
Advanced networks, which is assumed to
provide high quality services. It is expected to be double of
existed level and reach to more than 2 billion. Mobile internet
data volume w
ill exceed traditional fixed internet, user monthly
average flow rate will up to GB level.

CDMA2000



Since various new service modes will be introduced into future
mobile communication market, the relationship between
dominator and object in the mobile com
munication will be
extended from traditional one between people and people change
to people and machine, even machine and machine.



The traffic volume will dramatically increase under new
application types. It is expected to be double of existed level and
r
each more than 2 billion. Mobile internet data volume will
exceed traditional fixed internet, user monthly average flow rate
will reach GB level.



China
Telecom sees the 3G users
nearly

triple in 2011.


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WCDMA



In the next decade, the increment rate of voice
service will slow
down, while the increment of data service will boom.



By the end of 2011, the ne
w
subscribers

totalled

26million,
the
following

years will see the
upward trend
.


4.2

Usage forecast

China
,

People’s Republic of

The expected usage image and

relevant information is
summarized

below.


Category

U
sage
I
mage

Speed

Duration

Living

Phone call, e
-
mail,
web brows

Typical 14.4k


1
-
5 minutes

home electronics
Limited to usage
as remote
controller

Low,

5k


3seconds

Network storage

Medium, 512k
-
2M

5
-
10 minutes

Culture

Entertainment

Music delivery

Medium, 512k
-
2M

1
-
3 minutes

Image streaming

Medium, 512k
-
2M

1
-
3 minutes

Online game

Medium, 512k
-
2M

>1 hour

Education

Groupware for
students

Medium, 512k
-
2M

1
-
3 minutes

e
-
learning

Medium, 512k
-
2M

Ty
pical, 30 minute
-
1
hour

Health

Medical

Safety

Remote medical
treatment

Medium, 512k
-
2M

Typical, 30 minute
-
1
hour

Biometrics
certification
service

High, >2M

1
-
3 minutes

Monitoring river

Low, <512k

Always on

Public traffic

Comb
ination with
car navigation
system

High, >2M

Typical, 30 minute
-
1
hour

Business
activities /
Environment

Management of
server information,
and the use of
application

Medium, 512k
-
2M

Always on for business

1
-
3 minutes for file
transfer

Telework

Typical

14.4k

For HDTV: >2M

For email: 1 minute

For HDTV: 3
-
5 minutes

TV conference

High, >2M

Typical, 30 minute
-
1
hour


Mobile
electronic
commerce

Mobile shopping

Medium, 512k
-
2M

Typical, 30 minute
-
1
hour

Combination with
signage

Medium, 512k
-
2M

Typical,
30 minute
-
1
hour




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