LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA
Prof. Peter STANOVNIK
Third International Seville Conference on
Future
-
Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision
-
making
16th
-
17th October 2008
Prof. Cene BAVEC
LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA
Rationale behind Technology Foresight Study in Slovenia
•
Technological development and innovations are decisive
factors in reducing development gaps between old and new
EU member states;
•
It is crucial to embark on new development paradigms to
enhance competitiveness, sustainable development, and
knowledge economy;
•
It is also crucial to redefine and improve strategic thinking at
national, regional and enterprise level;
•
We exploited experience from the first phase of the technology
foresight research in 2005.
LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA
Methodological Approach
•
Basic priorities were based on the strategic documents in Slovenia
as National Development Strategy, National Research Programme
2006
-
2010, Program of economic and social reforms
-
2006
;
•
Technology Foresight was combination of Delphi survey and expert
panels;
•
1800 stakeholders participated in study and dialogues: private
business sector, academia (universities, research institutes), public
sector;
•
Data from all expert panels were statistically evaluated and filtered
.
LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA
Response rates by thematic fields
Number
of addressees
Response rate
Conduct of survey
Eco
-
technologies
392
19.9
Oct.
–
Dec. 2007
Sustainable chemistry
149
36.9
July
–
Sept. 2007
ICT
391
19.8
Nov. 2007
–
Febr. 2008
Biotechnology,
pharmaceuticals,
nutrition
208
31.3
Oct. 2007
–
Febr. 2008
Advanced materials
391
18.2
Oct. 2007
–
Febr. 2008
Sustainable construction
270
19.3
Nov. 2007
–
March 2008
1.802
22.1
LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA
Structure of Questionnaries
Example of the questionnaire about the theses under investigation for thematic field ICT
Theses
No
.:
Competence
of respondents
Innovation rate
in Slovenian economy
Relevance for the
international
competitiveness
Chances
fof implementation
in the next
10
-
15 years
Chances for
accomplishing
leading
position of Slovenian
stakeholders regarding
R&D
New products,
services
no
very low
No relevance
Weak
yes/no
yes/no
rather weak
rather low
Small
Mediocre
medium
medium
Medium
Good
rather high
rather high
High
Rather good
very high
very high
Very high
excellent
1
–
new communication methods and protocols;
2
–
intelligence in next
-
generation networks;
3
–
system security in reliability;
4
–
broadband systems and convergence of communication systems;
5
–
embedded systems;
6
–
interactive telecomminication services and advanced services for interface users;
7
–
intelligent microsystems in one chip;
8
–
scientific and technical translation systems;
9
–
optoelectronics and high definition (resolution) displays;
10
–
service ICT platforms;
11
–
development of artificial intelligence;
12
–
cognitive systems;
13
–
ICT applications (e
-
work, e
-
learning, e
-
purchasing, e
-
monitoring, e
-
government, data mining);
14
–
digital television;
15
–
convergence of communication systems;
16
–
multifunctional terminals;
17
–
process controlling technologies;
18
–
wireless monitoring systems in traffic.
.
.
.
.
LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA
Evaluation Procedure
•
Removal of
answers of respondents who assessed their
knowledge of individual theses
as very low (marks
1 or 2
)
;
•
Identification of the most relevant assessment for each
thesis (marks 4 or 5);
•
Removal of theses with low share of thesis marked with 4
or 5 (below 50%);
•
Removal of some technological theses by expert panels;
•
Prioritization of finally selected technological theses,
through expert panels.
LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA
Encountered problems during the exercise
•
Communication problems (phone and e
-
mail reminders);
•
The structure of thematic expert panels;
•
The response rate in public administration and media;
•
Technology foresight
,
national
and sectoral
innovation
system
s
.
LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA
Average assessment of 10 most prosperous technological theses by
thematic fields in Slovenian industries
3,5
3,7
3,8
3,8
3,9
4,1
3,2
3,3
3,4
3,5
3,6
3,7
3,8
3,9
4
4,1
4,2
Sustainable Construction
Eco-technologies
Advanced materials
ICT
Biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, nutrition
Sustainable chemistry
Source: IER Survey, March 2008
LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA
Priority theses by thematic fields
•
Industrial sustainable chemistry:
new synthesis technologies,
“green” and low s
c
ale chemistry, polymers for controlled
processes.
•
Biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, nutrition:
biogeneric drugs,
delivery systems to tissue engineering and new production
processes in pharmaceutical and food processing industries.
•
ICT:
embedded systems, service ICT platforms, wireless
monitoring systems in traffic, process controlling technologies.
LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA
Priority theses by thematic fields
•
Advanced materials:
environmental friendly materials,
multifunctional and intelligent materials, nano materials, special
s
teel products
.
•
Eco
-
technologies:
environmentally acceptable products,
renewable energy resources, rational use of energy, advanced
waste and water treatment.
•
Sustainable construction:
building of low energy houses,
passive, “bio” and intelligent buildings, road construction,
prefabricated construction systems.
LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA
Conclusions
1.
The
research
was
conceived
in
the
way
that
enabled
the
use
of
experience
from
the
first
phase
of
the
research
in
2005
.
2.
We
concentrated
on
promotion
of
networking,
collective
learning
and
continuation
of
dialogue
between
main
stakeholders
in
technological
development
in
Slovenia
:
private
business
enterprises,
public
universities,
research
institutes
and
governmental
agencies
.
3.
The
main
emerging
technologies
were
identified
in
order
to
foster
the
process
of
R&D
prioritization
and
technological
specialization
.
The
results
will
be
used
also
in
designing
postgraduate
“curricula”
.
LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA
Conclusions
4
.
The
results
of
the
study
will
be
primarily
used
for
the
policy
makers
at
national
level
(Ministry
for
HEST,
Ministry
for
economy
and
Technological
agency)
and
for
Slovenian
stakeholders
in
EU
promoted
technological
platforms
(for
example
ARTEMIS)
.
5
.
Due
to
high
fragmentation
of
R&D
and
low
level
of
technological
specialization,
governmental
bodies
should
in
the
future
pursue
coherent
policies
aiming
at
connection
and
interactive
coordination
of
policy
instruments
in
R&D,
innovation,
financial
and
higher
education
domain
.
LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY
FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA
Some lessons
1.
Many
unclosed
discussions
on
expert
panels
and
obviously
unpredictable
technological
development
confirmed
that
Technology
Foresight
cannot
be
one
-
time
action
–
it
has
to
be
executed
regularly
every
few
years
;
2.
The
size
of
the
country
is
an
important
restrain
ing
factor
–
Slovenia
with
2
mio
inhabitants
is
forced
to
focus
its
R&D
and
innovation
potential
on
a
very
limited
technological
fields
.
It
also
increases
vulnerability
and
ambiguity
of
results
of
Technology
Foresight
;
3.
We
should
find
out
additional
stimulus
for
private
enterprises
to
participate
in
Technology
Foresight
more
enthusiastically
and
to
integrate
its
results
into
their
business
strategies
.
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