LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY

FORESIGHT STUDY IN SLOVENIA


Prof. Peter STANOVNIK

Third International Seville Conference on

Future
-
Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):

Impacts and implications for policy and decision
-
making

16th
-

17th October 2008

Prof. Cene BAVEC


LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY

FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA

Rationale behind Technology Foresight Study in Slovenia

•
Technological development and innovations are decisive
factors in reducing development gaps between old and new
EU member states;

•
It is crucial to embark on new development paradigms to
enhance competitiveness, sustainable development, and
knowledge economy;

•
It is also crucial to redefine and improve strategic thinking at
national, regional and enterprise level;

•
We exploited experience from the first phase of the technology
foresight research in 2005.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY

FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA

Methodological Approach

•
Basic priorities were based on the strategic documents in Slovenia
as National Development Strategy, National Research Programme
2006
-
2010, Program of economic and social reforms

-

2006
;

•
Technology Foresight was combination of Delphi survey and expert
panels;

•
1800 stakeholders participated in study and dialogues: private
business sector, academia (universities, research institutes), public
sector;

•
Data from all expert panels were statistically evaluated and filtered
.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY

FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA

Response rates by thematic fields

Number

of addressees

Response rate

Conduct of survey

Eco
-
technologies

392

19.9

Oct.
–

Dec. 2007

Sustainable chemistry

149

36.9

July
–

Sept. 2007

ICT

391

19.8

Nov. 2007
–

Febr. 2008

Biotechnology,
pharmaceuticals,
nutrition

208

31.3

Oct. 2007
–

Febr. 2008

Advanced materials

391

18.2

Oct. 2007
–

Febr. 2008

Sustainable construction

270

19.3

Nov. 2007
–

March 2008

1.802

22.1

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY

FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA

Structure of Questionnaries

Example of the questionnaire about the theses under investigation for thematic field ICT

Theses

No
.:

Competence

of respondents

Innovation rate

in Slovenian economy

Relevance for the
international
competitiveness

Chances

fof implementation

in the next

10
-
15 years

Chances for

accomplishing

leading

position of Slovenian

stakeholders regarding

R&D

New products,

services

no

very low

No relevance

Weak

yes/no

yes/no

rather weak

rather low

Small

Mediocre

medium

medium

Medium

Good

rather high

rather high

High

Rather good

very high

very high

Very high

excellent

1
–

new communication methods and protocols;

2
–

intelligence in next
-
generation networks;

3
–

system security in reliability;

4
–

broadband systems and convergence of communication systems;

5
–

embedded systems;

6
–

interactive telecomminication services and advanced services for interface users;

7
–

intelligent microsystems in one chip;

8
–

scientific and technical translation systems;

9
–

optoelectronics and high definition (resolution) displays;

10
–

service ICT platforms;

11
–

development of artificial intelligence;

12
–

cognitive systems;

13
–

ICT applications (e
-
work, e
-
learning, e
-
purchasing, e
-
monitoring, e
-
government, data mining);

14
–

digital television;

15
–

convergence of communication systems;

16
–

multifunctional terminals;

17
–

process controlling technologies;

18
–

wireless monitoring systems in traffic.

.

.

.

.




LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY

FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA

Evaluation Procedure

•
Removal of

answers of respondents who assessed their
knowledge of individual theses
as very low (marks
1 or 2
)
;

•
Identification of the most relevant assessment for each
thesis (marks 4 or 5);

•
Removal of theses with low share of thesis marked with 4
or 5 (below 50%);

•
Removal of some technological theses by expert panels;

•
Prioritization of finally selected technological theses,
through expert panels.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY

FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA

Encountered problems during the exercise

•
Communication problems (phone and e
-
mail reminders);

•
The structure of thematic expert panels;

•
The response rate in public administration and media;

•
Technology foresight
,

national
and sectoral
innovation
system
s
.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY

FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA

Average assessment of 10 most prosperous technological theses by
thematic fields in Slovenian industries

3,5
3,7
3,8
3,8
3,9
4,1
3,2
3,3
3,4
3,5
3,6
3,7
3,8
3,9
4
4,1
4,2
Sustainable Construction
Eco-technologies
Advanced materials
ICT
Biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, nutrition
Sustainable chemistry
Source: IER Survey, March 2008

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY

FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA

Priority theses by thematic fields

•
Industrial sustainable chemistry:

new synthesis technologies,
“green” and low s
c
ale chemistry, polymers for controlled
processes.


•
Biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, nutrition:
biogeneric drugs,
delivery systems to tissue engineering and new production
processes in pharmaceutical and food processing industries.


•
ICT:

embedded systems, service ICT platforms, wireless
monitoring systems in traffic, process controlling technologies.


LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY

FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA

Priority theses by thematic fields


•
Advanced materials:

environmental friendly materials,
multifunctional and intelligent materials, nano materials, special
s
teel products
.


•
Eco
-
technologies:

environmentally acceptable products,
renewable energy resources, rational use of energy, advanced
waste and water treatment.


•
Sustainable construction:

building of low energy houses,
passive, “bio” and intelligent buildings, road construction,
prefabricated construction systems.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY

FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA

Conclusions

1.
The

research

was

conceived

in

the

way

that

enabled

the

use

of

experience

from

the

first

phase

of

the

research

in

2005
.

2.
We

concentrated

on

promotion

of

networking,

collective

learning

and

continuation

of

dialogue

between

main

stakeholders

in

technological

development

in

Slovenia
:

private

business

enterprises,

public

universities,

research

institutes

and

governmental

agencies
.


3.
The

main

emerging

technologies

were

identified

in

order

to

foster

the

process

of

R&D

prioritization

and

technological

specialization
.

The

results

will

be

used

also

in

designing

postgraduate

“curricula”
.


LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY

FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA

Conclusions

4
.

The

results

of

the

study

will

be

primarily

used

for

the

policy

makers

at

national

level

(Ministry

for

HEST,

Ministry

for

economy

and

Technological

agency)

and

for

Slovenian

stakeholders

in

EU

promoted

technological

platforms

(for

example

ARTEMIS)
.

5
.

Due

to

high

fragmentation

of

R&D

and

low

level

of

technological

specialization,

governmental

bodies

should

in

the

future

pursue

coherent

policies

aiming

at

connection

and

interactive

coordination

of

policy

instruments

in

R&D,

innovation,

financial

and

higher

education

domain
.

LESSONS FROM TECHNOLOGY

FORESIGHT STUDY IN
S
LOVENIA

Some lessons

1.
Many

unclosed

discussions

on

expert

panels

and

obviously

unpredictable

technological

development

confirmed

that

Technology

Foresight

cannot

be

one
-
time

action

–

it

has

to

be

executed

regularly

every

few

years
;

2.
The

size

of

the

country

is

an

important

restrain
ing

factor

–

Slovenia

with

2

mio

inhabitants

is

forced

to

focus

its

R&D

and

innovation

potential

on

a

very

limited

technological

fields
.

It

also

increases

vulnerability

and

ambiguity

of

results

of

Technology

Foresight
;

3.
We

should

find

out

additional

stimulus

for

private

enterprises

to

participate

in

Technology

Foresight

more

enthusiastically

and

to

integrate

its

results

into

their

business

strategies
.