URBANIZATION AND URBAN SPRAWL

designpadAI and Robotics

Dec 1, 2013 (3 years and 10 months ago)

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URBANIZATION AND URBAN SPRAWL


Low density development but large


spatial extent


Can we target areas for conservation


that promote resilience?


Need information on areas that are


likely to become urbanized in the future

NY DEC

WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE WE
SIMULATING?

1993

2010

WHAT TYPE OF GROWTH ARE WE SIMULATING?

SLEUTH IS


Cellular Automaton Model


Use historic rates of urbanization (from imagery) to
calibrate model


Simulate urban growth based on physical and social
constraints and proximity to existing urban and
transportation


Monte Carlo
-
based simulation allows for probabilistic
projections

Projections of future urbanization


esri

grid format



60m resolution



urban, exurban


value representing bins of probability

Add about model

Background, CA, spatial process , historic data, growth rules

I:docs
\

About SLEUTH:

USGS / UCSB

Cellular Automaton


Spatial Process


Historic data


Growth rules



Spontaneous



New Spreading



Edge Growth



Road
-
influenced

Calibrated and predicted on modified USCB Combined Statistical Areas

Road Density as proxy for Suburban Growth

HOW

WE DEFINE URBAN AREAS

SLEUTH simulates spread of road density and therefore urbanization

HOW

WE DEFINE URBAN AREAS

NLCD

URBAN

CLASS

LOWER BOUND
ROAD DENSITY

UPPER BOUND
ROAD DENSITY

HOW

WE DEFINE URBAN AREAS

What

SLEUTH Doesn’t Do

Include detailed parcel level info

Directly incorporate pop/demographic

models to get at density/

housing demand


Does

allow for policy input through

exclusion/resistance layers

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

Appalachian

Southeast Regional Assessment Project

Gulf Coastal Plain and Ozarks

Questions/Comments

Questions or comments from presentation about the SLEUTH
model or about our data products
in general?





Questions or comments in general about the SALCC, what
we’re doing, where we’re going, etc.?

Contacts


Ken
McDermond



ken_mcdermond@fws.gov


Rua

Mordecai


rua@southatlanticlcc.org


Janet
Cakir



janet_cakir@nps.gov


Amy
Keister



amy_keister@fws.gov


Laurie Rounds


laurie.rounds@noaa.gov


Ginger
Deason



ginger@southatlanticlcc.org