Climate change and the Natural Environment

cowyardvioletManagement

Nov 6, 2013 (3 years and 9 months ago)

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Newid yn yr Hinsawdd a’r Fframwaith Amgylchedd
Naturiol


Climate change and the Natural Environment
Framework


Lucy Corfield



Knowledge Transfer Advisor / Swyddog Trosglwyddo Gwybodaeth


Climate is what you expect, weather is
what you get






Robert A. Heinlein


Climate

is a long term average of weather (usually over 30
years) and trends in these average conditions are climate change.


Weather

is what we experience hour
-
to
-
hour, day
-
to
-
day or
even year
-
to
-
year, and as anyone living in Wales will know, it can
be highly variable.


On occasion weather may even appear at odds with

long
-
term climate change (e.g. cold winters in

2009 and 2010).

What’s the difference between climate
and weather?

The latest climate projections suggest that Wales will see:


Hotter, drier summers


Milder, wetter winters


We can also expect to see:


More extreme weather events


Less snowfall and frost


Continued sea level rise

How the Welsh climate is projected to
change

The latest projections, UKCP09, are available from

http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk/

Change in Summer Mean Daily Temperature (
°
C)

2050s
-

Medium emissions scenario

Hotter, drier summers

10% probability level:

Very unlikely to be less
than

50% probability level:
Central estimate

90% probability level:

Very unlikely to be more
than

5

Source Met Office Hadley
Centre

Observed temperatures

Simulated
temperatures

2040s

2060s

2003

We are

already
committed to
this from past
emissions alone

There were
2139 excess
deaths in
Wales and
England during
the heatwave
of August 2003
(a 16%
increase)

The 2003 heatwave could become
a regular

occurrence by the 2040s

Milder, wetter winters

Change in Winter Mean Precipitation (%)

2050s
-

Medium emissions scenario

10% probability level:

Very unlikely to be less
than

50% probability level:
Central estimate

90% probability level:

Very unlikely to be more
than

Sea level rise

What does this mean?


It will not affect me………

It will not happen in my lifetime………

How is Wales already vulnerable?

What are the economic consequences
for Wales?

Climate

Change


Damage to buildings




Damage to crops



Transport/


infrastructure


disruption




Disruption from


weather events




Damage to


telecommunication


systems



Uncomfortable


buildings

Regional

Weather

Changes


Sea level

rise


Extreme

weather


Temperature


Precipitation




Indirect cost


from loss in sales


due to travel


disruption



Issues around


insurance



Problems with


supply chains


Increase in prices of

food/energy/water



Retrofitting the built


environment



Outdoor tourism


What are the consequences for
communities?

Climate

Change

Physical health effects


Temperature related

Illness and death


Less mobile people may not be
able to move from risk areas


Adapted from WHO 2003 Climate Change and Health

Regional

Weather

Changes


Sea level

rise


Extreme

weather


Temperature


Precipitation


Mental Health


Personal and economic loss


Fear and worry about financial
issues.

Financial security


Insurance issues


Travel disruption

Wider Community
issues


Anti
-
social behaviour


Resources shortages

Mobility Access


Communication barriers


Affecting health care services

Homes/Properties


Damage to
buildings/assets


Discomfort in homes

What are the environmental consequences
for Wales?

Climate

Change

Non native species of plants and animals are
likely to become more widespread


Low river flows and higher water
temperatures which may have an adverse
impact on freshwater ecosystems


Impact on ecosystems


Loss or migration of climate sensitive
species. (Artic alpine or Snowdon lily may be
lost, dormouse and nightingale may increase
northwards: char and northern footman moth
may decrease)


Ecosystems goods and services


natures provision (water, forests, agri,etc)


Regional

Weather

Changes


Sea level

rise


Extreme

weather


Temperature


Precipitation


How will climate change affect the NEF?

Supporting Services


Geodiversity
:

range

of

rocks,

soils,

land

forms

&

physical

attributes


Physical

&

ecological

processes


Biodiversity
:
all

organisms


Evolutionary

processes

Regulating

Services

Air quality regulation, Water quality regulation,
Flood & drought regulation, Hazard
regulation, Climate regulation

Cultural

services


Landscape and seascape, Appreciation of
nature, Mental & physical health, Recreation
& tourism, Education, training & inspiration,
Employment & voluntary work, Access and
transport


Provisioning

Services

Food, Natural materials (
e.g. wood, wool,
leather),
Raw materials (
e.g.

stone, slate,
minerals),
Water, Air, Energy, Genetic
resources, Buildings & settlements


For more information:


lucy.corfield@wales.gsi.gov.uk


www.wales.gov.uk/climatechange


By 2050, the natural environment of Wales will demonstrate an
enhanced ability to accommodate the impacts of continuing
climate change while continuing to provide a range of
ecosystem services, underpinned by biodiversity.

This vision will be delivered both within a continuing network
of protected sites and in the wider rural and urban landscape.
Environmental management objectives across the sector will
explicitly address means to deliver this vision and will be
reviewed in the light of emerging environmental change, at
regular intervals.

Best practice on the means by which to achieve positive
outcomes will be shared and monitoring of progress towards
them maintained. The advantages of an ecosystem approach to
climate change adaptation will be widely understood and
supported by government, industry, business and public alike.


Vision

NEF will identify and implement solutions which will:




Create compelling visions for a sustainable future based on positive
social, economic and environmental outcomes.


Stimulate positive actions for ecosystems health, diversity and
resilience so securing the long term sustainability of ecosystems and
their services.


Meet the requirements of any new EU or UN targets for biodiversity
and ecosystems.


Be fully compliant with the UN Convention on Biological Diversity
and the EU Environmental Directives.


Be more efficient and effective than current/existing systems.


Function increasingly successfully within the current financial and
economic context.


A LIVING WALES
-

GENERIC TERMS OF
REFERENCE


1.
Developing legislation

2.
Improving regulation

3.
Trialing area and national planning

4.
Integrating assessments and standards

5.
Developing tools and market instruments

6.
Improving policy integration and delivery

7.
Engagement and communications

8.
Gathering and sharing evidence

NEF
-

Phase 3 work areas