New Economy of the East of Scotland - yellow book ltd

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Dec 5, 2012 (5 years and 1 month ago)

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New Economy of the East of
Scotland

ESEP Seminar

Dundee College

28
th October
2003


Today’s programme


10.30
Welcome: Gordon McLaren


10.40
Presentation: John Lord


11.20
Commentary: Ron Botham


11.45
Break


12.00
Focus groups


12.45
Feedback and discussion


13.15
Closing remarks: Gordon McLaren


13.30
Lunch


ESEP labour market service


launched January 2002


labour market information service for ESEP and
its partners


principal output
-

major annual report:


www.esep.co.uk


ad hoc reports and services:


ERDF/ESF
-
funded community development projects


strategic sector profiles


autumn seminars


East of Scotland Programme Area

What do we mean by the new
economy?


it’s a flag of convenience term


we’re looking for evidence of:




clusters (present and emerging)


competitiveness


wealth creation


innovation


adjustment


how is the ESEP area contributing?


role of the eligible areas



Focus on
6
key sectors


electronics / opto
-
electronics


creative industries


forest products


food and drink


tourism and culture


biotechnology


Disaggregated by
8
areas


Scotland


East of Scotland Programme Area


City of Edinburgh


City of Aberdeen


City of Dundee


South of the Forth

(West Lothian, Midlothian, East Lothian)


North of the Forth

(Stirling, Falkirk, Clackmannanshire, Fife)


North of Tay

(Perth & Kinross, Angus, Aberdeenshire, Moray)

We’ll take a look at…


business stock


industry structure


the key sectors


wages


occupational structure

VAT registered businesses per
10
,
000
population (
2001
)

234
278
136
240
246
191
198
355
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the Tay
Source: Office of National Statistics
Change in VAT registered
businesses 1997
-
2002 (%)

2%
5%
-4%
6%
4%
12%
-1%
5%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the
Tay
Source: Office of National Statistics
Scotland: employment trends + LQs

-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
well
represented
in Scotland
In this quadrant…
GB job loss
sectors
that are
well
represented
in Scotland
In this quadrant…
GB job loss
sectors
that are
not well
represented
in Scotland
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
not

well
represented
in Scotland
Vertical axis=national (GB) change in employee jobs by sector, (1998-2001, average 5%). Horizontal axis - local share (2001), relative to British average (1.0). To the right of centre (>1.0)
indicates a greater than average share. Source: Annual Business Inquiry (Office for National Statistics)
All sector average
Other services
Public administration, education &
health
Banking, finance and insurance, etc
Transport and communications
Construction
Distribution, hotels and restaurant
Energy and water
Agriculture and fishing
Manufacturing
ESEP area: employment trends + LQs

-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
well
represented
in ESEP
In this quadrant…
GB job loss
sectors
that are
well
represented
in ESEP
In this quadrant…
GB job loss
sectors
that are
not well
represented
in ESEP
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
not

well
represented
in ESEP
Vertical axis=national (GB) change in employee jobs by sector, (1998-2001, average 5%). Horizontal axis - local share (2001), relative to British average (1.0). To the right of centre (>1.0)
indicates a greater than average share. Source: Annual Business Inquiry (Office for National Statistics)
All sector average
Other services
Public administration, education &
health
Banking, finance and insurance, etc
Transport and communications
Construction
Distribution, hotels and restaurant
Energy and water
Agriculture and fishing
Manufacturing
Aberdeen: employment trends + LQs

-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
well
represented
in the City of
Aberdeen
In this quadrant…
GB job loss
sectors
that are
well represented
in
the City Aberdeen
In this quadrant…
GB job loss sectors
that are
not
well represented
in the City of Aberdeen
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
not

well
represented
in the City of
Aberdeen
Vertical axis=national (GB) change in employee jobs by sector, (1998-2001, average 5%). Horizontal axis - local share (2001), relative to British average (1.0). To the right of centre (>1.0)
indicates a greater than average share. Source: Annual Business Inquiry (Office for National Statistics)
All sector average
Other services
Public administration,
education & health
Banking, finance and insurance, etc
Transport and communications
Construction
Distribution, hotels and restaurant
Energy and water
Agriculture and fishing
Manufacturing
LQ 11.8 / 1%
Dundee: employment trends + LQs

-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
well
represented
in the City of
Dundee
In this quadrant…
GB job loss
sectors
that are
well
represented
in the City of
Dundee
In this quadrant…
GB job loss sectors
that are
not
well represented
in the City of Dundee
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
not

well
represented
in the City of
Dundee
Vertical axis=national (GB) change in employee jobs by sector, (1998-2001, average 5%). Horizontal axis - local share (2001), relative to British average (1.0). To the right of centre (>1.0)
indicates a greater than average share. Source: Annual Business Inquiry (Office for National Statistics)
All sector average
Other services
Public administration, education & health
Banking, finance and insurance, etc
Transport and
communications
Construction
Distribution, hotels and restaurant
Energy and water
Agriculture and fishing
Manufacturing
Edinburgh: employment trends + LQs

-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
well represented
in the City of Edinburgh
In this quadrant…
GB job loss sectors
that are
well represented
in the City of
Edinburgh
In this quadrant…
GB job loss sectors
that are
not
well represented
in the City of Edinburgh
In this quadrant…
GB growth sectors
that are
not

well represented
in the
City of Edinburgh
Vertical axis=national (GB) change in employee jobs by sector, (1998-2001, average 5%). Horizontal axis - local share (2001), relative to British average (1.0). To the right of centre (>1.0)
indicates a greater than average share. Source: Annual Business Inquiry (Office for National Statistics)
All sector average
Other services
Public administration, education &
health
Banking, finance and insurance, etc
Transport and communications
Construction
Distribution, hotels and restaurant
Energy and water
Agriculture and fishing
Manufacturing
South of Forth: employment trends + LQs

-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
well
represented
South of the
Forth
In this quadrant…
GB job loss
sectors
that are
well
represented
South of the Forth
In this quadrant…
GB job loss sectors
that
are
not well represented
South of the Forth
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
not

well
represented
South of the Forth
Vertical axis=national (GB) change in employee jobs by sector, (1998-2001, average 5%). Horizontal axis - local share (2001), relative to British average (1.0). To the right of centre (>1.0)
indicates a greater than average share. Source: Annual Business Inquiry (Office for National Statistics)
All sector average
Other services
Public administration,
education & health
Banking, finance and insurance, etc
Transport and communications
Construction
Distribution, hotels and restaurant
Energy and water
Agriculture and fishing
Manufacturing
North of Forth: employment trends + LQs

-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
well
represented
North of the
Forth
In this quadrant…
GB job loss
sectors
that are
well
represented
North of the Forth
In this quadrant…
GB job loss sectors
that
are
not well represented
North of the Forth
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
not

well
represented
North of the
Forth
Vertical axis=national (GB) change in employee jobs by sector, (1998-2001, average 5%). Horizontal axis - local share (2001), relative to British average (1.0). To the right of centre (>1.0)
indicates a greater than average share. Source: Annual Business Inquiry (Office for National Statistics)
All sector average
Other services
Public administration, education & health
Banking,
finance and
insurance, etc
Transport and
communications
Construction
Distribution, hotels and restaurant
Energy and water
Agriculture and fishing
Manufacturing
North of Tay: employment trends + LQs

-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
well
represented
North of the
Tay
In this quadrant…
GB job loss
sectors
that are
well
represented
North of the Tay
In this quadrant…
GB job loss sectors
that are
not well represented
North of the Tay
In this quadrant…
GB growth
sectors
that are
not

well
represented
North of the Tay
Vertical axis=national (GB) change in employee jobs by sector, (1998-2001, average 5%). Horizontal axis - local share (2001), relative to British average (1.0). To the right of centre (>1.0)
indicates a greater than average share. Source: Annual Business Inquiry (Office for National Statistics)
All sector average
Other services
Public administration, education & health
Banking,
finance and
insurance, etc
Transport and
communications
Construction
Distribution, hotels and restaurant
Energy and water
Agriculture and fishing
Manufacturing
Electronics / opto
-
electronics employee
jobs as % of total area jobs,
2001


2%
1%
4%
2%
3%
8%
3%
1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the Tay
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Electronics/opto
-
electronics, change in
employee jobs
1995
-
2001
(%)


8%
37%
216%
-17%
41%
57%
49%
61%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the
Tay
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Creative industries employee jobs as
% of total area jobs,
2001


1.4%
1.0%
0.5%
2.3%
1.5%
3.0%
1.5%
0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the Tay
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Creative industries, change in
employee jobs 1995
-
2001 (%)


133%
53%
-4%
131%
150%
-22%
691%
358%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the
Tay
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Forest products employee jobs as %
of total area jobs, 2001


0.8%
0.8%
0.2%
0.3%
0.9%
0.8%
1.9%
1.1%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the Tay
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Forest products, change in employee
jobs
1995
-
2001
(%)


-1%
-40%
-60%
88%
-3%
11%
-22%
9%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the
Tay
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Food and drink employee jobs as %
of total area jobs,
2001


2%
1%
1%
1%
2%
3%
2%
5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the Tay
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Food and drink, change in employee
jobs 1995
-
2001 (%)


-5%
-17%
-37%
-46%
-14%
-14%
0.3%
47%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the
Tay
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Tourism and culture employee jobs
as % of total area jobs,
2001


9%
7%
8%
9%
9%
8%
7%
11%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the Tay
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Tourism and culture, change in
employee jobs
1995
-
2001
(%)


11%
12%
8%
24%
14%
25%
16%
-0.3%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the
Tay
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
Biotechnology employee jobs as % of
total area jobs,
2001


0.3%
0.6%
0.3%
0.6%
0.5%
1.5%
0.3%
0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
1.8%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the Tay
Source: Annual Business Inquiry

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Academic/
Research
Company
Medical
Medical
Devices
Supply &
Support
Distribution of Biotechnology Organisations
in the East of Scotland, 2002
Fife
Forth Valley
Grampian
Lothian
Tayside
Source: Scottish Enterprise

0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
Fife
Forth Valley
Grampian
Lothian
Moray
Tayside
East of Scotland
Scotland
Biotechnology* Location Quotient, 2000
Source: Annual Business Enquiry (Office for National Statistics). A Location Quotient (LQ) of less than 1 indiactes a
lower share of this type of employment than the British average, a LQ greater than 1 indicates an above average share.
* based on SIC 731 Research
and experimental development on
natural sciences and engineering


0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
March 1999
March 1999
March 1999
March 2002
Growth in Employment in Biotechnology Organisations
East of Scotland
Scotland
Source: Scottish Enterprise

0
100
200
300
400
500
600
March 1999
March 1999
March 1999
March 2002
Growth in Numbers of Biotechnology Organisations
East of Scotland
Scotland
Source: Scottish Enterprise
Biotechnology, change in employee
jobs 1995
-
2001 (%)


48%
7%
940%
30%
58%
7%
196%
129%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
1000%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the
Tay
Source: Annual Business Inquiry
0
%

5
%

10%

15
%

20
%

25
%

30%

35%

Aberdeen City

Aberdeenshire

Angus

Clackmannanshire

Dundee City

East Lothian

Edinburgh, City of

Falkirk

Fife

Midlothian

Moray

Perthshire &

Kinross

Stirling

West Lothian

Source: Annual Business Inquiry/ Annual Employee Survey

% of total ESEP sector employee jobs

Distribution of biotechnology
employment by council area (
2001
)

5 star science/technology research in
East of Scotland HEIs


Dundee


clinical lab sciences, biological sciences,


Edinburgh


hospital
-
based clinical, pure maths,
computer science, electrical/electronic
engineering


Heriot
-
Watt


Mineral and mining engineering

ESEP area: high LQs


oil/gas extraction (
12.6
)


oil/gas services (
12.4
)


pulp/paper/board (
5.1
)


fish processing (
4.6
)


fishing/fish farm (
4.4
)


forestry/logging (
3.7
)


semi conductors (
2.9
)


shipbuilding/repair (
2.8
)


beverages (
2.5
)


farming animals (
2.5
)


computer mfg (2.2)


measuring instruments (2.2)


museum activities (2.1)


sawmilling (1.9)


technical testing (1.9)


radio & tv activities (1.9)


hotels (1.8)


growing crops (1.7)


optical instruments (1.7)


research (1.3)



Aberdeen


high LQs for:



oil extraction (
81.0
) and services (
70.9
)


technical testing/analysis (
10.5
)


fish processing (
7.0
)


pulp/paper/board (
6.3
)


industrial process control equipment (
5.4
)


special purpose machinery (
4.0
)


architecture/engineering activities (
3.6
)


forestry/logging (
3.6
)


shipbuilding and repair (
3.1
)


mechanical power machinery (
2.7
)


higher education (
1.5
)


research (
1.4
)


Dundee


high LQs for:


publishing (3.8)


higher education (3.8)


manufacture of computers (2.9)


museum activities (2.8)


manufacture tvs/radios (2.3)


mechanical power machinery (1.9)


veneer sheets/plywood (1.6)


bars (1.4)


Edinburgh


High LQs for:


auxiliary to financial intermediation (
4.5
)


museum activities (
4.2
)


insurance and pension funding (
4.0
)


measuring instruments (
3.9
)


recorded media (
3.7
)


monetary intermediation (
3.4
)


office machinery repair/mfr (
2.7
)


beverages (
2.6
)


pharmaceuticals (
2.5
)


higher education (
2.3
)


other financial intermediation (
1.7
)


other computer related (
1.5
)


hotels (
1.5
)


research (
1.4
)

South of the Forth


High LQs for:


manufacture of semi
-
conductors (17.3)


optical instruments (11.8)


manufacture of computers (7.4)


radio and tv activities (7.3)


beverages (4.5)


research (3.8)


pulp/paper/board (3.5)


growing crops (2.8)


meat production (2.7)


agricultural services (2.5)


photographic activities (1.9)


hardware consultancy (1.5)


hotels (1.5)

North of the Forth


high LQs for:


pulp/paper/board (
9.9
)


shipbuilding/repair (
7.2
)


manufacture of computers (
4.2
)


veneer sheets/plywood (
3.5
)


manufacture of semi
-
conductors (
3.2
)


measuring instruments (
2.6
)


farming animals (
2.5
)


radio and tv activities (
2.4
)


beverages (
2.3
)


hotels (
2.3
)


processing fruit & veg (
2.2
)


mechanical power machinery (
1.7
)


database activities (
1.6
)


insurance and pension funding (
1.6
)

North of the Tay


High LQs for:


fishing (27.8)


fish processing (27.1)


oil and gas services (12.8)


forestry and logging (12.1)


growing crops (9.3)


farming animals (7.1)


sawmilling (6.3)


pulp/paper/board (5.6)


beverages (5.2)


agricultural services (3.9)


meat production (3.7)


builders carpentry (3.3)


hotels (2.7)


Gross weekly full
-
time earnings,
(£),
1999
/
2002

£427
£505
£412
£480
£440
£418
£399
£384
£0
£100
£200
£300
£400
£500
£600
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Dundee City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the
Tay
Source: New Earnings Survey
1999
2002
Workforce by occupation type,(%)
2001


13%
14%
9%
13%
15%
13%
13%
9%
7%
5%
8%
8%
11%
9%
9%
9%
8%
8%
9%
8%
7%
7%
5%
5%
7%
9%
7%
8%
13%
12%
8%
13%
13%
14%
16%
13%
12%
17%
13%
14%
13%
11%
13%
12%
16%
13%
10%
13%
13%
12%
17%
17%
10%
12%
10%
12%
12%
15%
13%
13%
11%
14%
12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Scotland
Aberdeen City
Edinburgh City
All ESEP
South of the
Forth
North of the
Forth
North of the Tay
% managers
& senior
officials
%
professional
% associate
prof &
technical
%
administrativ
e &
secretarial
% skilled
trades
% personal
service
% sales &
customer
service
% process
plant &
machine
% elementary
Dundee data is not available - suppressed due to statistical unreliability. Source: Local Area Labour Force Survey
Occupational mix by council area

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Aberdeen
Aberdeenshire
Angus
Clackmannan
Dundee
E Lothian
Edinburgh
Falkirk
Fife
Midlothian
Moray
Perth & Kinross
Stirling
W Lothian
Scotland
Managers/professionals
Process/elementary
New Economy of the East of
Scotland

ESEP Seminar

Dundee College

28th October 2003



The new (or not so new) economy:


-

a real world perspective

Ron Botham


Training & Employment Research Unit

What we can learn from
Soviet cuisine


Russian national dish: PIRMINI


Kazakh national dish: BEESHBARMACK


Uzbeck national dish: MANTI



ask what each is made of, and the
answer is…

…“the same”

-

just like the “new economy”


lots of words that mean the same thing


the new economy is a:


super buzzphrase encompassing the knowledge
driven economy, the digital economy, the service
economy, the global economy…the weightless (or
dematerialised) economy (Philpott,
2001
)


or how about:


Innovation systems, industrial milieu, the learning
region, the intelligent region, associative
consensual economies…


they all mean that
innovation has become the
most important economic driver

Supposed features of the new
economy


essentially IT/internet driven:


is biotech the new new economy?


it means the end of:


place/distance


paper


hierarchy and organisation


the office

…the new economy rewrites
economic laws


network connections create exponential
growth


the end of scarcity


value increases with plenty


increasing not diminishing returns


externalities, clusters and networks are
key


ultimately, demand curves slope upwards

This has strategic implications


it’s about empowerment, delegation,
decentralisation, flat structures


but not inevitably or always


it’s about innovation and continual change, not
efficiency


but many industries depend on stability and efficiency


it’s about bits, not atoms


but you can’t move products down the wire


it’s a gift economy with zero prices


sometimes, but in all industries?

How new or different is this?


Marshall (C
19
th) emphasised clusters and
knowledge in the industrial revolution


it’s about product and process innovation


anything can be part of the new economy


oil and gas is high tech/knowledge
-
based


but also about resource and capital


don’t pursue it dogmatically


Tees Valley is writing off bulk chemicals (the
“old economy”) and going for digital media


Some concluding thoughts


it doesn’t matter if an industry is “new”


is it


or could it be


competitive?


biotech is at a very early stage


many years to achieve big job impacts


the future evolves from the past


exploit what you have including electronics


don’t accept the hype


there’s much in the new economy


but we need real knowledge/analytical skills

New Economy of the East of
Scotland

ESEP Seminar

The Space, Dundee College

28
th October
2003