# About a method to forecast using neural network

AI and Robotics

Oct 19, 2013 (4 years and 6 months ago)

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Application of

Back
-
Propagation neural
network in data forecasting

Le Hai Khoi, Tran Duc Minh

Institute Of Information Technology

VAST

Ha Noi

Viet Nam

Acknowledgement

The authors want to Express our

thankfulness to Prof. Junzo WATADA who

Authors

CONTENT

Introduction

Steps in data forecasting modeling
using neural network

Determine network’s topology

Application

Concluding remarks

Introduction

Neural networks are “Universal Approximators”

To find a suitable model for the data forecasting problem is very difficult and

in reality, it might be done only by trial
-
and
-
error

We may take the data forecasting problem for a kind of data processing

problem

Data collecting and
analyzing

Neural Networks

Post
-
processing

Pre
-
processing

Figure 1: Data Processing.

Steps in data forecasting modeling using neural network

The works involved in are:

*
Data pre
-
processing
:

determining data interval: daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly; data type:

technical index or basic index; method to normalize data: max/min or

mean/standard deviation.

*
Training
:

determining the learning rate, momentum coefficient, stop condition, maximum

cycles, weight randomizing, and size of training set, test set and verification

set.

*
Network’s topology
:

determining number of inputs, hidden layers, number of neurons in each layer,

number of neurons in output layer, transformation functions for the layers and

error function

Steps in data forecasting modeling using neural network

The major steps in design the data forecasting model is as follow:

.

Choosing variables

２．
Data collection

３．
Data pre
-
processing

４．
Dividing the data set into smaller sets: training, test and verification

５．
Determining network’s topology: number of hidden layers, number of

neurons in each layer, number of neurons in output layer and the

transformation function.

６．
Determining the error function

７．
Training

８．
Implementation.

In performing the above steps, it is not necessary to perform steps sequentially. We could be back to the
previous steps, especially in training and choosing variables steps. The reason is because in the designing
period, if the variables chosen gave us unexpected results then we need to choose another set of variables
and bring about the training step

Choosing variables and Data collection

Determining which variable is related directly or indirectly to the data
that we need to forecast.

If the variable does not have any affect to the value of data that we need to

forecast then we should wipe it out of consider.

Beside it, if the variable is concerned directly or indirectly then we should

take it on consider.

Collecting data involved with the variables that are chosen

Data pre
-
processing

Analysis

and

transform

values

of

input

and

output

data

to

emphasize

the

important

features,

detect

the

trends

and

the

distribution

of

data
.

Normalize

the

input

and

output

real

values

into

the

interval

between

max

and

min

of

transformation

function

(usually

in

[
0
,

1
]

or

[
-
1
,

1
]

intervals)
.

The

most

popular

methods

are

following
:

SV = ((0.9
-

0.1) / (MAX_VAL
-

MIN_VAL)) * (OV
-

MIN_VAL)

Or
:

SV = TFmin + ((TFmax
-

TFmin) / (MAX_VAL
-

MIN_VAL)) * (OV
-

MIN_VAL)

where:

SV: Scaled Value

MAX_VAL: Max value of data

MIN_VAL: Min value of data

TFmax: Max of transformation function

TFmin: Min of transformation function

OV: Original Value

Dividing patterns set

Divide the whole patterns set into the smaller sets:

(1)

Training set

(2)

Test set

(3)

Verification set.

The training set is usually the biggest set employed in training the network.
The test set, often includes 10% to 30% of training set, is used in testing the
generalization. And the verification set is set balance between the needs of
enough patterns for verification, training, and testing.

Determining network’s topology

This step determines links between neurons, number of hidden layers,
number of neurons in each layer
.

1. How neurons in network are connected to each other.

2. The number of hidden layers should not exceed two

3. There is no method to find the most optimum number of neurons used in

hidden layers
.

=> Issue 2 and 3 can only be done by trial and error since it is depended on the
problem that we are dealing with.

Determining the error function

To estimate the network’s performance before and after training process.

Function used in evaluation is usually a mean squared errors. Other functions

may be: least absolute deviation, percentage differences, asymmetric least

squares etc.

Performance index

F
(
x
) = E
[
e
T
e
]

=
E
[ (

t
-

a

)
T

(

t
-

a

) ]

Approximate Performance index

F(
x
) =
e
T
(k)
e
(k)
]

= (
t
(k)

-

a
(k)
)
T

(

t
(k)

-

a
(k)
)

The lastest quality determination function is usually the Mean Absolute

Percentage Error
-

MAPE.

Training

Training tunes a neural network by adjusting the weights and biases
that is expected to give us the global minimum of performance
index or error function.

When to stop the training process

?

1.
It should stop only when there is no noticeable progress of the error
function against data based on a randomly chosen parameters set?

2.
It should regularly examine the generalization ability of the network by
checking the network after a pre
-
determined number of cycles?

3.
Hybrid solution is having a monitoring tool so we can stop the training
process or let it run until there is no noticeable progress.

4.
The result after examining of verification set of a neural network is most
persuadable since it is a directly obtained result of the network after
training.

Implementation

This is the last step after we determined the factors related to network’s
topology, variables choosing, etc.

1. Which environment: Electronic circuits or PC

2. The interval to re
-
train the network: might be depended on the times and

also other factors related to our problem.

Determine network’s topology

Multi
-
layer feed
-
forward neural networks

S
2
x
1

S
1
x
1

n
1

1

S
1
xR
1

R
1

x
1

W
1

b
1

f
1

S
1
x
1

S
1
x
1

a
1

S
2
x
1

n
2

1

S
2
xS
1

W
2

b
2

f
2

S
2
x
1

a
2

P

Figure

2
:

Multi
-
layer

feed
-
forward

neural

networks

where:

P
: input vector (column vector)

W
i
: Weight matrix of neurons in layer
i
. (S
i
xR
i
: S
i

rows (neurons), R
i

columns

(number of inputs))

b
i
:
bias

vector of layer
i

(S
i
x1: for S
i

neurons)

n
i
: net input

(
S
i
x1
)

f
i
: transformation function (activate function)

a
i
: net output

(S
i
x1)

: SUM function

i

= 1 .. N, N is the total number of layers.

a
2

= f
2
( W
2

f
1

(W
1
p + b
1
) + b
2
)

Determine training algorithm and network’s topology

Output

x

x
2

x
n

bias

bias

w
ij

Input layer

Hidden layers

Output layer

w
jk

w
kl

Transfer function is a

sigmoid
or

any squashing function
that is
differentiable

ƒ
(x)
=

1

1 +
e
-
δx

and
ƒ

(x)
=
ƒ
(x)
{
1
-

ƒ
(x)
}

1

1

Figure 3: Multi
-
layered Feed
-
forward neural network layout

Back
-
propagation algorithm

Step 1:
Feed forward the inputs through networks:

a
0

= p

a
m+1

=
f
m+1

(
W
m+1

a
m

+
b
m+1
), where m = 0, 1, ...,
M

1.

a
=

a
M

Step 2:
Back
-
propagate the sensitive (error):

where
m

=
M

1, ..., 2, 1.

Step 3:
Finally, weights and biases are updated by following formulas:

.

(Details on constructing the algorithm and other related issues should be found on text book
Neural Network Design
)

at the output layer

at the hidden layers

Using Momentum

This is a heuristic method based on the observation of training results.

The standard back
-
propagation algorithm will add following item to the weight as

the weight changes:

W
m
(
k
) =
-

s
m

(
a
m

1
)

T
,

b
m
(
k
) =
-

s
m

.

When using momentum coefficient, this equation will be changed as follow:

W
m
(
k
) =

W
m
(
k

1)

(1

)

s
m

(
a
m

1
)
T
,

b
m
(
k
) =

b
m
(
k

1)

(1

)

s
m

.

Application

Arrow
:

inheritance

relation

Rhombic

antanna

arrow
:

Aggregate

relation

NEURAL

NET

class

includes

the

components

that

are

the

instances

of

Output

Layer

and

Hidden

Layer
.

Input

Layer

is

not

implemented

here

since

it

does

not

do

any

calculation

on

the

input

data
.

NEURAL NET

class

Output layer

Hidden layer

LAYER

class

friend

Application

Application

Application

Concluding remarks

The

determination

of

the

major

works

is

important

and

realistic
.

It

will

help

develop

more

accuracy

data

forecasting

systems

and

also

give

the

researchers

the

deeper

look

in

implementing

the

solution

using

neural

networks

In fact, to successfully apply a neural network, it is depended on three major
factors:

First,

the

time

to

choose

the

variables

from

a

numerous

quantity

of

data

as

well

as

perform

pre
-
processing

those

data
;

Second,

the

software

should

provide

the

functions

to

examine

the

generalization

ability,

help

find

the

optimal

number

of

neurons

for

the

hidden

layer

and

verify

with

many

input

sets
;

Third,

the

developers

need

to

consider,

examine

all

the

possible

abilities

in

each

time

checking

network’s

operation

with

various

input

sets

as

well

as

the

network’s

topologies

so

that

the

chosen

solution

will

exactly

described

the

problem

as

well

as

give

us

the

most

accuracy

forecasted

data
.

THANK YOU FOR
ATTENDING!

Authors

Kytakyushu 03/2004